Preview Western Bulldogs vs Essendon, Docklands, Sunday 08/04/18 @ 3:20 PM

[eth-dog]

Observations

Western Bulldogs:

Essendon:

Head to Head (last 5)

Western Bulldogs 3-2 Essendon

Form Guide

Western Bulldogs: 0W 1L
Essendon: 1W 0L

Sportsbet odds

Western Bulldogs: $2.44
Essendon: $1.56
Line: 10.5 ($1.92)

Possible sides

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon

B: Brown- Hartley - McNiece
F: Dahlhaus - Boyd - Bontempelli
HB: McKenna - Hurley - Saad
HF: Johannisen - English - Gowers
C: Parish - Stringer - Z Merrett
C: Hunter - Macrae - Dale
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Langford
HB: Suckling - Naughton - Wood
F: Stewart - Hooker - Fantasia
B: Cordy - Trengove - Williams
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Roughead - McLean - Dunkley
I: McGrath - Myers - D Smith - Zaharakis
I: Webb - Richards - Honeychurch - Daniel

Western Bulldogs defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon's forward line was the highlight of the 2017 season, finishing 3rd in terms of overall goals/inside 50 ratio behind the two teams in Adelaide, with an efficiency rating of 28%. The Dogs defence leaked like a sieve last season, 26% of inside 50's converting into goals. Jackson Trengove is a big addition to the defence, his height and weight will allow him to take contested marking beast Cale Hooker, but that will leave 3rd gamer Aaron Naughton with the huge task of quelling Joe Daniher, and Zaine Cordy to play on the much taller James Stewart. Orazio Fantasia will return from injury which means he'll have a good combination with Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, which will make it hard for small defenders Bailey Williams and Matt Suckling, the pair combining for over 70 goals last season.

Midfield/rucks battle

The Dogs will be hoping to have a big win in this area of the ground given their troubles at either end so far this season and last. The Dogs were built on the mantra of contested ball but they currently lack big bodied midfielders, which was compounded by the loss of Tom Liberatore in the middle. Their numbers on the inside were average last year, finishing 12th in clearance differential and 7th in contested possession differential, whereas Essendon finished 14th and 10th respectively. Essendon's big bodies of Dyson Heppell, Kyle Langford, Brendan Goddard and David Myers will be hoping to assert their authority over a smaller Bulldogs midfield, and expect the class of David Zaharakis and Andrew McGrath to shine for the Dons, whilst the Dogs will hope for Jackson Macrae and Josh Dunkley can help their midfield get the ball forward of centre. Ruck wise, Bellchambers has had a good start to the season and will want to assert his authority against Jordan Roughead and Tim English, who have struggled.

Western Bulldogs forward line vs Essendon defence

Essendon's defence had an enjoyable 2017 for the most part despite being under extreme pressure most weeks, they had a very high defensive efficiency rating of 23% in the last season. The Dogs forward line was atrocious, averaging a goal a tad under 22% of the time it entered their forward 50; in addition to that, their two leading goal scorers from last year are unavailable, one injured and the other playing for the opposition! Tom Boyd seems likely to be the main man up there but will face stiff competition from Michael Hartley, whilst Mitch Brown will probably quell the influence of the resting ruck of either Tim English or Jordan Roughead. Star Marcus Bontempelli seems like he'll spend more time in attack, so expect Michael Hurley to take him and try to quell him.

X-Factor Player

Jake Stringer comes up against his former club and I think everyone knows he will be primed and ready to go against them. His first game was solid for Essendon but I think he had an eye for this game ever since he came to the club. He'll get 25 and kick 4 goals.

Key stat

Western Bulldogs: Clearances. So so important for the Dogs, their defence is poor, the forward line is worse and if they're going to win games of footy they need to win in the middle

Essendon: Forward efficiency. Massive for this game as they could seriously damage an undersized and out of form Bulldogs defence.

Tip

Bulldogs look to be in a world of pain right now and Essendon are going in as strong favourites, so Essendon by 43

 

[DallasCrane316]

Wish our team showed improvement like Port have

Me too - they’re showing how it’s done really.

So wanted us to come out and smash an early interstate game. It was just the same old for us unfortunately!

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Me too - they’re showing how it’s done really.

So wanted us to come out and smash an early interstate game. It was just the same old for us unfortunately!

Really need to smash the dogs next week

 

[DallasCrane316]

Really need to smash the dogs next week

We should win convincingly, however, those are the games we usually have to grind out or we lose. Like Brisbane, GC, North, Carlton and Freo last year.

I’m hoping we show some improvement on that. But mainly just want the win.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

We should win convincingly, however, those are the games we usually have to grind out or we lose. Like Brisbane, GC, North, Carlton and Freo last year.

I’m hoping we show some improvement on that. But mainly just want the win.

Dogs will be under so much media scrutiny this week boys better be ready

 

[Doss]

Nice write up Eth. Not sure about the 43 point margin but we'll see!

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Tipping Essendon not confident tho

 

[Bombers36]

i'd have;-

OUT: Dea, Begley
IN: McNeice, Fantasia

Please leave Stringer forward.....

Brown Hartley McNeice
McKenna Hurley Saad
Parish Heppell Z.Merrett
Tippa Hooker Fantasia
Stringer Daniher Green

Bellcho Zakka Smith

Bench from: Goddard McGrath Langford Stewart

 

[Macca18]

Bulldogs by 18.

Will be savaged under the media microscope all week, we will start (undeserved) warm favourites and then rock up next weekend like deers in headlights. Carlton last year? Brisbane last year? Fremantle last weekend? Ring a bell?

Redpath to return and kick at least 4, Dahlhaus & Bontempelli to return to their 2016 heights and more questions to be raised about Essendon’s 2018 bottom 9 ambitions & Worsfold’s coaching extension.

 

[BomberFan355]

Bulldogs by 18.

Will be savaged under the media microscope all week, we will start (undeserved) warm favourites and then rock up next weekend like deers in headlights. Carlton last year? Brisbane last year? Fremantle last weekend? Ring a bell?

Redpath to return and kick at least 4, Dahlhaus & Bontempelli to return to their 2016 heights and more questions to be raised about Essendon’s 2018 bottom 9 ambitions & Worsfold’s coaching extension.

Nawww, that's the Macca18 I know and love, welcome back.

No shock if what you said happens though, can not trust this team.

 

[Mr_McBoogerBalls]

Love your optimism eth, Stringer kicking 4 with 25 disposals. I hope you’re right, I’m dubious but wouldn’t say no

 

[maskmcgee]

This is a game that we should lose.

Not because the Bulldogs are better than us, but because it's the Essendon way to get smashed by shit teams who look completely hopeless in every other match they've played.

Watched the second half of their game yesterday, the Dogs gave the Eagles hours of time and space to dispose of the ball. But that's not the way they're going to play this week - they're going to come out and apply 2016 finals pressure on us for no logical reason. The difference will be whether or not the players learned anything from last week, or if Worsfold can actually come up with a plan to counter this.

Because I'd rather be pessimistic and win than optimistic and lose, Worsfold won't change the plan during the game and the Dogs will win.

 

[Old Stuckup]

We really should be beating the Dogs. They have hit rock bottom.

 

[Mootsy]

This is a game that we should lose.

Not because the Bulldogs are better than us, because it's the Essendon way to get smashed by shit teams who look completely hopeless in every other match they've played.

Watched the second half of their game yesterday, the Dogs gave the Eagles hours of time and space to dispose of the ball. But that's not the way they're going to play this week - they're going to come out and apply 2016 finals pressure on us for no logical reason. The difference will be whether or not the players learned anything from last week, or if Worsfold can actually come up with a plan to counter this.

Because I'd rather be pessimistic and win than optimistic and lose, Worsfold won't change the plan during the game and the Dogs will win.

yup, it's some weird occurrence that happens with poor performing teams, they play us and suddenly they are the best they've been in a while.

 

[eth-dog]

Love your optimism eth, Stringer kicking 4 with 25 disposals. I hope you’re right, I’m dubious but wouldn’t say no

Life's no fun without some risk.

 

[blitzer]

This match comes at a good time for the Bulldogs because we are great at playing forwards into form.
Lets see if we can demonstrate a stronger contested ball performance.

Don't care too much about Stringer vs Bulldogs. Lets just get a win and get back on track. It would be nice to see Daniher pick up his form too because he's been cold to start the season.

Good test for our midfield. They still have a solid midfield unit. I want to see us really cracking in and working both ways. Need to make up for last week which wasn't flash.

 

[MiguelM]

This is a game that we should lose.

Not because the Bulldogs are better than us, because it's the Essendon way to get smashed by shit teams who look completely hopeless in every other match they've played.

Watched the second half of their game yesterday, the Dogs gave the Eagles hours of time and space to dispose of the ball. But that's not the way they're going to play this week - they're going to come out and apply 2016 finals pressure on us for no logical reason. The difference will be whether or not the players learned anything from last week, or if Worsfold can actually come up with a plan to counter this.

Because I'd rather be pessimistic and win than optimistic and lose, Worsfold won't change the plan during the game and the Dogs will win.

To be fair to Worsfold, the instruction wasn't followed by the players against Freo. I would like to see some more radical team moves during games if we are not firing though.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Chalk up a loss. They'll come out breathing fire and we won't be able to handle it.

Our excuse this week will be travelling back from Fremantle

 

[ChampTurboBucko]

Lol.

So many sooks. Wahhhhh!

 

[MarkG]

Bulldogs beat us previously through pressure man on man in tight. Expect more of the same. Plus Bontompelli, Macrae, Johannisen, Hunter, Dahlhaus and even Daniels played blinders.

Expect a scrubber to play on Merrett and keep him to 20 possessions.

Their backs will get into our forwards heads and make us fumble with perceived pressure. Expect Easton Wood's fist to be raised with anger and Joe to be head ducking and kicking in all directions.

Stringer will cop it against his old side that knows all of his weaknesses. I don't think he is up to overcoming this pressure and expect a few fumbles and very few touches.

But despite all this, we should still win.

TBC will star, Heppell is playing well and Smith (wish we had 3 of him) will put equally as much pressure on the Dogs mids. Goddard is playing great football, Stewart will trouble them with his run and strong marking and Green will be dangerous. Expect Tippa and McGrath improve and to do well. Zaka is playing with great zip, as is McKenna and Saad. Hurley will also do well.

Dons by 17 points.

 

[JayDon]

i'd have;-

OUT: Dea, Begley
IN: McNeice, Fantasia

Please leave Stringer forward.....

Brown Hartley McNeice
McKenna Hurley Saad
Parish Heppell Z.Merrett
Tippa Hooker Fantasia
Stringer Daniher Green

Bellcho Zakka Smith

Bench from: Goddard McGrath Langford Stewart

Begley stays in for mine.

 

[BomberTime]

They are under a media blowtorch but we have copped a fair bit over the weekend and today especially Joe, Stringer and Tippa.

Really hope Fantasia and Myers are back.

Brown Hartley Goddard
Saad Hurley McKenna
Zaharakis Heppell McGrath
Stringer Daniher Fantasia
Stewart Hooker Tipungwuti
Bellchambers Merrett Smith
Myers Begley Parish Langford

 

[eth-dog]

Forgot to mention that McNiece didn't line up in the VFL on Saturday. May not be ready.

 

[VelvetSledge]

Stringer with 58 touches, 9 goals and Mark of the year.






By half time

 

[McKennabomber]

Saad did come back onto the field, but does anyone know if he is in doubt or is he ok?