We aren't far off being a top 4 side, some times we look brilliant and can beat the best sides like the Saints, Dogs and Cats and at other times we can be dreadful losing comfortably to teams like Essendon, North Melbourne and Hawthorn.
The problem to me looks obvious, we aren't consistent, we only match up well against just over half the sides in the competition, we have holes in our team and are vulnerable to sides who can match us or better us at our own game style as well as sides who put lots of defencive pressure with pace around the midfield. But why is this and how can we make top 4?
Consistency:
We lack this mostly because we haven't yet solidified a best 22 that is consistently out on the park week in week out. The top sides are rarely missing more than 2 or 3 of their best 22 and when they do they even falter. Geelong in their premiership years hardly had more than 3 best 22 players out. Hawthorn won a flag in 2008 because Geelong had a few out/under done and they had their best 22 on the park consistently and on the big day even though the Hawks had no depth that year.
We have been hammered with injuries over the last two years. Players like Waite, Bower, Austin, Mclean, Warnock, Hampson, Jamison, Walker, Armfield, O'hAilpin, Kreuzer, Murphy, Robinson and White have all spent time out with some sort of niggle or injury this season and it's only the half way point! We have a frail and injury prone best 22 and we, like all sides can't afford to have 3 or 4 of our best 22 out.
This I believe to be our best 22
B: Joseph Jamison Russell
HB: Walker Bower Armfield
C: Simpson Mclean Gibbs
HF: Yarran Waite Garlett
F: Betts O'hAilpin Houlihan
OB: Kreuzer Judd Murphy
IC: Lucas Carrazzo Hampson Scotland
EM: Warnock Henderson Robinson
I doubt this side has ever taken the field this year. But it would be highly competitive with any other side in the comp. Lose a few players and start filling it with back-ups like Browne, Thornton, Anderson, Hadley and a half fit Mclean and all of a sudden we are a second rate side. You don't have to lose many best 22 players before you are very second rate, just look at Brisbane or St Kilda not long after losing Riewoldt.
Matchups
We lose to sides we should beat such as Essendon, North Melbourne and Hawthorn, Cop a belting from Collingwood and beat sides you wouldn't expect us to beat like St. Kilda, Bulldogs and Geelong. Why? The answer is matchups.
Teams who play a lot of fast players in the midfield, play one on one and can out run us and pressure us often beat us. Essendon and North did this.
Teams who play one on one against our close players and set up a lot of players on the defencive side of the ball and stop our forward run and make all close in ball contested and contested against big strong bodies often beat us. Collingwood and to an extent Hawthorn did this. Adelaide did this last year.
So why can we just not adapt and change our style and structure when we play these sides who beat us? This is the million dollar question. One of our biggest weaknesses has been our ability to change our game plan, style and structure effectively.
A few ideas...
Essendon tend to have an emphasise on pressure on us and forcing us to run. They pick their best running side which tends to be quite good at running. The play close to us, and run hard off us when the ball gets in the open in dispute or in their possession. They put emphasis on stopping our possession time (time with the ball in hand) and stopping our run and carry. We have been too afraid to get the ball into the open against them. We have been afraid to turn it over and run with it.
The last two times we have tried to keep the ball in close and play contested footy. This has failed as this allows players like Watson in who is bigger stronger and better than Hadley and what Mclean was against them and the ball still ends up in the open but to their advantage.
We need to restructure and change our game plan so that we can match them or better them. Not try and make it a contested and tough inside physical slog, this doesn't work, it's not our go, we are not good at it, it doesn't suit us. We have the pace now, we need to load up with pace. We need to get our quickest team out there and play to that and take them on at our own game, even if it means we concede more goals. We need to play attacking footy, move the ball fast, not allow them to rest when we win the ball by moving it slow like we have in the past, we need to get it out in the open more, especially around stoppages and we need to really work hard on our pressure and chasing as they will turn it over.
Collingwood and Hawthorn have made it a physical contested, forced lots of inside ball and out bustled us with high numbers at stoppages, bigger and stronger bodies and plenty of numbers on the defencive side of the ball to stop our forward run. We have tended to play into their hands by keeping the ball in close by not hitting the ball all that far from ruck contests.
What we need to do is get the ball into the open as much as possible. Bigger ruck hit outs, loading up with plenty of numbers outside, outside players must give themselves extra room and must set up for the ball to be knocked into space and to run into to receive while inside players must be tight in case the opposition ruckman wins it. We must not get sucked into the contests too much and must work on coming out the back of stoppages. When sides set up defencively at stoppages and have zones set up you must go out the back to runners.
Perhaps we need to drag more players from zones/defencive side of stoppages into the stoppages and drag more usual inside opposition players who are minding a blue out of stoppages, perhaps if players like Judd and Murphy set up outside/out the back as runners and a few others come in, may that be a Yarran or a Houlihan who's opponents might be zoning, those players in the zone will have to come in and this should open holes.
Also moving the ball into the forward line long by foot, over the zone while the forward line is still relatively open is crucial.
All in all, if we don't start beating these sides we should beat and ones who have the wood over us like Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Brisbane we wont make top four and the only way to do it is to play the right game style, plan and get the match ups right and most importantly to be able to adapt and change things quickly on game day. The most important thing is to create ways to allow us to play our game style against all other sides and not allow them to stop us doing so.
Things that must happen to allow us to be top 4 and win flags
1. Strong inside onballers. We recruited Mclean for this role to bolster this. So far we have got nothing out of him but there is plenty of hope we will. Then again Melbourne supporters have had hope Mclean will come good for the last two years. I will have to say I am disappointed Gibbs hasn't flourished in this role. As good a player Gibbs is and as good as he is playing I am slightly disappointed in the direction he has gone with his footy and was hoping he would be a good strong inside mid but then again the man is young and may still step into this role and is filling the classy outside mid role that needs to be filled. Hadley is ok but not top 4 standard. Robinson with another big preseason could be the man for the job.
2. Midfield depth. Judd is an A+ midfielder. Murphy and Gibbs are A graders and Scotland and Simpson are a fraction below that. Mclean is yet to prove he can get through a season and play well against all the different structures of midfields. What we lack is not quality but depth in the midfield. If we lose one of our A grade midfielders then all of a sudden our midfield looks very bottom 8. We needed Lucas badly and we will need Buckley to be good. What we do need is Murphy and Gibbs to take that next step if we are to be in contention.
They have not stepped up into the class of Ablett, Judd, Bartel, Corey, Black, Chapman, Swann and Cooney however they are not far off it but it's a fine line between being an A grader and an A+ midfielder so to speak. We need to be at the stage where opposition don't know who to tag, we aren't quite there. If you really want the pressure off Judd then Gibbs and Murphy need to lift and attract the number one tag more often.
When Judd is being blanketed by a tagger Gibbs/Murphy need to step up and take over Judd's role. We don't change Judd's position or role enough to help him break tags or get him more into the game but more importantly use his heavy tag to the team's advantage and to Murphy/Gibbs advantage. Judd needs to learn to be a decoy at times and let the other players like Gibbs and Murphy get in there and be the main ball winners as they wont be tagged so hard. We don't use Judd smartly. We need to use his ability to draw opposition and allow other players to take the front seat and run riot. This will help Murphy and Gibbs take the next step. The only time this happens is when Judd if off the ground. This wont work if he's off as the hard tag goes to the best player on the field. We must be more team orientated and use Judd's heavy tag as a posative to our advantage, murphy and gibbs and co must use it better and we must set up for it.
Our midfield at its best when every one is fit and playing is as good as any but take one or two out and it gets very weak very quickly. We lack quality depth, our midfield is always on the verge of falling to it's knees. That's why we drafted Lucas and that's why Buckley will be so important and that's why the Mclean trade must work for us.
When Garlett gets more time on the wing and Yarran starts to play part time on ball we will be all the better for it.
Ellard is an interesting one. Not long ago he was too small, poor kicking and just not good enough but is now just about our best player in the reserves and as a tough inside onballer who has the fitness to run hard all day it's hard to see how he couldn't play a role this year, especially with Hadley only being mediocre and Mclean injured all the time.
3. Adaptability. We need to be able to change little things about our game plan and style to get things to work so we can play our brand of footy. Doing the same thing against every team is not going to work. We need to play to our strengths and attack opposition's weaknesses. For example Collingwood like teams who only play "one way" and don't like contested ball and we are a bit like that. We play a poor style and poor team against Essendon, we just go about it all wrong. We must be able to adapt to many different opposition structures and game plans and must be able to do it quickly and before games.
4. That ability to lift. It seams that some times when we are getting beaten the only player who has that ability to "lift" is Judd. This is what sets him apart from all our other players. When things aren't going our way we as a team and individuals just don't seem to have that extra gear in reserve that good sides and Juddy have. I'm not sure if it's a lack of resilience, mental toughness or if it's because we have a lot of players who are not willing to put their bodies on the line when things are not going our way. The only other player apart from Judd who really steps it up when things are down would be Simpson. It's something that Murphy and Gibbs need to do if they are to take that next step, it's that ability to get themselves right into a game and influence it when the team's down or they are down. Something Kouta and Hird made careers on.
5. The best 22. We need to get our best 22 or near enough fit and on the field. Even Fringe players like Austin, Johnson and White have had horrid runs with injury. Premiership sides and top 4 sides generally have a good run with their core 22 players.
6. The Ruck. We must start winning the hit outs. We need a ruckman that can do this and who can give us plenty around the ground. We need a ruckman who will work hard and get back in defence as well as be able to run hard forward. Jacobs has been a decent tap ruckman and been reasonable defencively but when you have talents like Warnock and Hampson you begin to think that he might be just filling in for them until they find form and fitness. I like Jacobs, his defencive game is alright and he rucks well but I think Hampson can give us more and I think Warnock will end up being better. Jacob's attacking game is not great, mainly because as a ruck you need to push back in defence and then be able to run hard and fast into an attacking position when we get the ball and this running part is where he falls down also he can't give much up forward where Hampson has shown a bit there. I think Warnock is in the VFL to work on his marking as this is a weakness. I thought Warnock's last game against Geelong was his best and he was reasonable.
The problem to me looks obvious, we aren't consistent, we only match up well against just over half the sides in the competition, we have holes in our team and are vulnerable to sides who can match us or better us at our own game style as well as sides who put lots of defencive pressure with pace around the midfield. But why is this and how can we make top 4?
Consistency:
We lack this mostly because we haven't yet solidified a best 22 that is consistently out on the park week in week out. The top sides are rarely missing more than 2 or 3 of their best 22 and when they do they even falter. Geelong in their premiership years hardly had more than 3 best 22 players out. Hawthorn won a flag in 2008 because Geelong had a few out/under done and they had their best 22 on the park consistently and on the big day even though the Hawks had no depth that year.
We have been hammered with injuries over the last two years. Players like Waite, Bower, Austin, Mclean, Warnock, Hampson, Jamison, Walker, Armfield, O'hAilpin, Kreuzer, Murphy, Robinson and White have all spent time out with some sort of niggle or injury this season and it's only the half way point! We have a frail and injury prone best 22 and we, like all sides can't afford to have 3 or 4 of our best 22 out.
This I believe to be our best 22
B: Joseph Jamison Russell
HB: Walker Bower Armfield
C: Simpson Mclean Gibbs
HF: Yarran Waite Garlett
F: Betts O'hAilpin Houlihan
OB: Kreuzer Judd Murphy
IC: Lucas Carrazzo Hampson Scotland
EM: Warnock Henderson Robinson
I doubt this side has ever taken the field this year. But it would be highly competitive with any other side in the comp. Lose a few players and start filling it with back-ups like Browne, Thornton, Anderson, Hadley and a half fit Mclean and all of a sudden we are a second rate side. You don't have to lose many best 22 players before you are very second rate, just look at Brisbane or St Kilda not long after losing Riewoldt.
Matchups
We lose to sides we should beat such as Essendon, North Melbourne and Hawthorn, Cop a belting from Collingwood and beat sides you wouldn't expect us to beat like St. Kilda, Bulldogs and Geelong. Why? The answer is matchups.
Teams who play a lot of fast players in the midfield, play one on one and can out run us and pressure us often beat us. Essendon and North did this.
Teams who play one on one against our close players and set up a lot of players on the defencive side of the ball and stop our forward run and make all close in ball contested and contested against big strong bodies often beat us. Collingwood and to an extent Hawthorn did this. Adelaide did this last year.
So why can we just not adapt and change our style and structure when we play these sides who beat us? This is the million dollar question. One of our biggest weaknesses has been our ability to change our game plan, style and structure effectively.
A few ideas...
Essendon tend to have an emphasise on pressure on us and forcing us to run. They pick their best running side which tends to be quite good at running. The play close to us, and run hard off us when the ball gets in the open in dispute or in their possession. They put emphasis on stopping our possession time (time with the ball in hand) and stopping our run and carry. We have been too afraid to get the ball into the open against them. We have been afraid to turn it over and run with it.
The last two times we have tried to keep the ball in close and play contested footy. This has failed as this allows players like Watson in who is bigger stronger and better than Hadley and what Mclean was against them and the ball still ends up in the open but to their advantage.
We need to restructure and change our game plan so that we can match them or better them. Not try and make it a contested and tough inside physical slog, this doesn't work, it's not our go, we are not good at it, it doesn't suit us. We have the pace now, we need to load up with pace. We need to get our quickest team out there and play to that and take them on at our own game, even if it means we concede more goals. We need to play attacking footy, move the ball fast, not allow them to rest when we win the ball by moving it slow like we have in the past, we need to get it out in the open more, especially around stoppages and we need to really work hard on our pressure and chasing as they will turn it over.
Collingwood and Hawthorn have made it a physical contested, forced lots of inside ball and out bustled us with high numbers at stoppages, bigger and stronger bodies and plenty of numbers on the defencive side of the ball to stop our forward run. We have tended to play into their hands by keeping the ball in close by not hitting the ball all that far from ruck contests.
What we need to do is get the ball into the open as much as possible. Bigger ruck hit outs, loading up with plenty of numbers outside, outside players must give themselves extra room and must set up for the ball to be knocked into space and to run into to receive while inside players must be tight in case the opposition ruckman wins it. We must not get sucked into the contests too much and must work on coming out the back of stoppages. When sides set up defencively at stoppages and have zones set up you must go out the back to runners.
Perhaps we need to drag more players from zones/defencive side of stoppages into the stoppages and drag more usual inside opposition players who are minding a blue out of stoppages, perhaps if players like Judd and Murphy set up outside/out the back as runners and a few others come in, may that be a Yarran or a Houlihan who's opponents might be zoning, those players in the zone will have to come in and this should open holes.
Also moving the ball into the forward line long by foot, over the zone while the forward line is still relatively open is crucial.
All in all, if we don't start beating these sides we should beat and ones who have the wood over us like Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Brisbane we wont make top four and the only way to do it is to play the right game style, plan and get the match ups right and most importantly to be able to adapt and change things quickly on game day. The most important thing is to create ways to allow us to play our game style against all other sides and not allow them to stop us doing so.
Things that must happen to allow us to be top 4 and win flags
1. Strong inside onballers. We recruited Mclean for this role to bolster this. So far we have got nothing out of him but there is plenty of hope we will. Then again Melbourne supporters have had hope Mclean will come good for the last two years. I will have to say I am disappointed Gibbs hasn't flourished in this role. As good a player Gibbs is and as good as he is playing I am slightly disappointed in the direction he has gone with his footy and was hoping he would be a good strong inside mid but then again the man is young and may still step into this role and is filling the classy outside mid role that needs to be filled. Hadley is ok but not top 4 standard. Robinson with another big preseason could be the man for the job.
2. Midfield depth. Judd is an A+ midfielder. Murphy and Gibbs are A graders and Scotland and Simpson are a fraction below that. Mclean is yet to prove he can get through a season and play well against all the different structures of midfields. What we lack is not quality but depth in the midfield. If we lose one of our A grade midfielders then all of a sudden our midfield looks very bottom 8. We needed Lucas badly and we will need Buckley to be good. What we do need is Murphy and Gibbs to take that next step if we are to be in contention.
They have not stepped up into the class of Ablett, Judd, Bartel, Corey, Black, Chapman, Swann and Cooney however they are not far off it but it's a fine line between being an A grader and an A+ midfielder so to speak. We need to be at the stage where opposition don't know who to tag, we aren't quite there. If you really want the pressure off Judd then Gibbs and Murphy need to lift and attract the number one tag more often.
When Judd is being blanketed by a tagger Gibbs/Murphy need to step up and take over Judd's role. We don't change Judd's position or role enough to help him break tags or get him more into the game but more importantly use his heavy tag to the team's advantage and to Murphy/Gibbs advantage. Judd needs to learn to be a decoy at times and let the other players like Gibbs and Murphy get in there and be the main ball winners as they wont be tagged so hard. We don't use Judd smartly. We need to use his ability to draw opposition and allow other players to take the front seat and run riot. This will help Murphy and Gibbs take the next step. The only time this happens is when Judd if off the ground. This wont work if he's off as the hard tag goes to the best player on the field. We must be more team orientated and use Judd's heavy tag as a posative to our advantage, murphy and gibbs and co must use it better and we must set up for it.
Our midfield at its best when every one is fit and playing is as good as any but take one or two out and it gets very weak very quickly. We lack quality depth, our midfield is always on the verge of falling to it's knees. That's why we drafted Lucas and that's why Buckley will be so important and that's why the Mclean trade must work for us.
When Garlett gets more time on the wing and Yarran starts to play part time on ball we will be all the better for it.
Ellard is an interesting one. Not long ago he was too small, poor kicking and just not good enough but is now just about our best player in the reserves and as a tough inside onballer who has the fitness to run hard all day it's hard to see how he couldn't play a role this year, especially with Hadley only being mediocre and Mclean injured all the time.
3. Adaptability. We need to be able to change little things about our game plan and style to get things to work so we can play our brand of footy. Doing the same thing against every team is not going to work. We need to play to our strengths and attack opposition's weaknesses. For example Collingwood like teams who only play "one way" and don't like contested ball and we are a bit like that. We play a poor style and poor team against Essendon, we just go about it all wrong. We must be able to adapt to many different opposition structures and game plans and must be able to do it quickly and before games.
4. That ability to lift. It seams that some times when we are getting beaten the only player who has that ability to "lift" is Judd. This is what sets him apart from all our other players. When things aren't going our way we as a team and individuals just don't seem to have that extra gear in reserve that good sides and Juddy have. I'm not sure if it's a lack of resilience, mental toughness or if it's because we have a lot of players who are not willing to put their bodies on the line when things are not going our way. The only other player apart from Judd who really steps it up when things are down would be Simpson. It's something that Murphy and Gibbs need to do if they are to take that next step, it's that ability to get themselves right into a game and influence it when the team's down or they are down. Something Kouta and Hird made careers on.
5. The best 22. We need to get our best 22 or near enough fit and on the field. Even Fringe players like Austin, Johnson and White have had horrid runs with injury. Premiership sides and top 4 sides generally have a good run with their core 22 players.
6. The Ruck. We must start winning the hit outs. We need a ruckman that can do this and who can give us plenty around the ground. We need a ruckman who will work hard and get back in defence as well as be able to run hard forward. Jacobs has been a decent tap ruckman and been reasonable defencively but when you have talents like Warnock and Hampson you begin to think that he might be just filling in for them until they find form and fitness. I like Jacobs, his defencive game is alright and he rucks well but I think Hampson can give us more and I think Warnock will end up being better. Jacob's attacking game is not great, mainly because as a ruck you need to push back in defence and then be able to run hard and fast into an attacking position when we get the ball and this running part is where he falls down also he can't give much up forward where Hampson has shown a bit there. I think Warnock is in the VFL to work on his marking as this is a weakness. I thought Warnock's last game against Geelong was his best and he was reasonable.
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