Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[KERRPOW]

Cant recall which of the footy shows raised this but apparently harry himmelberg at GWS being offered 900k/season by rival clubs. If he left via free agency the compensation may be pick 8.

They then floated the idea of GWS offering picks 5, 7&8 to west coast (assuming we finish last) for pick 1.

Id make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

[Hook461123]

Cant recall which of the footy shows raised this but apparently harry himmelberg at GWS being offered 900k/season by rival clubs. If he left via free agency the compensation may be pick 8.

They then floated the idea of GWS offering picks 5, 7&8 to west coast (assuming we finish last) for pick 1.

Id make that trade in a heartbeat.

They've climbed the ladder a bit since then.
They currently have 8 & 10

 

[kane249]

Would rather Edward Norton

Just as long as we don't need a Hulk

 

[Goldfish]

Would rather Edward Norton

Two players for the price of one...

 

[EdCurnowRules]

Take Reid if it’s unanimous that he’s the best of this lot. Top picks are rare, especially down at WCE… split picks in upcoming drafts that aren’t pick one, but keep this one

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Cant recall which of the footy shows raised this but apparently harry himmelberg at GWS being offered 900k/season by rival clubs. If he left via free agency the compensation may be pick 8.

They then floated the idea of GWS offering picks 5, 7&8 to west coast (assuming we finish last) for pick 1.

Id make that trade in a heartbeat.

You prompted me to do the ladder predictor and with both GWS and Tigers, their form is really hard to know how they will go. There will be a log jam for the 8th position and it can be anyone from Cats, Crows, Freo, Swans, Suns and Tigers. I have GWS finishing 14th and Tigers 13th meaning with the Himmelberg compo, they could hold 5, 6 and 7. Would I do it? Not sure as I need to take away the top 3 after HR and see what is left. Then I think we can safely say that Ben MacKay is likely gone meaning 5/6/7 becomes 6/7/8.

I will use the Rookie Me Central May power ratings so as to take emotion or opinion out of the dialogue and excluding Walters, E Reid, Rogers and Croft since they are out of bounds. The players available after Harley will be:-

AFL Draft Power Rankings: May 2023

The wait is over. It is time for Rookie Me Central's first Power Rankings instalment of 2023, featuring 20 of the top AFL Draft prospects.

central.rookieme.com

Watson, McKercher, Duursma, Curtin, Edwards, Wilson, Caddy, Moir, A Read, O'Sullivan, Freijah, Tholstrop and Sanders PLUS we still have some names to add once the carnival goes further and the season extends.

So the question is Harley Reid OR Edwards, Wilson and Caddy or whatever combination ends up being best available.

Look at Essendon in 2020 when they ended up with 8/9/10 (which started off 6/7/8 before NGA and F/S), they took Cox, Perkins and Z Reid. After that was Pedlar, Bruhn, Powell and Chapman so it was not as if the next 4 were much more enticing and the Bombers stuffed up (Reid does look a bust at this stage but at 201 cm - he may just need time)!!!


I am taking Harley over those 3 as it stands.

To tempt me, you would need Tigers and or GWS to have a dip and both Carlton and Hawks to be winning more than I give them credit for. I would want my first of the picks to be 3 or 4.

 

[Free Agent]

Great skills. Great mark. And play in different positions of the ground when needed. Already has the don't argue like Martin does. Big and quick and has great goal sense.

Why wouldn't you want him on our list.
His exactly what we need and will bring some excitement to our stale list.

We need a player like him badly.

 

[Kwality]

No thanks. Naughton over rated and Moir is a tease and don’t want him and Tholstrup won’t be on the board at 38.
Next…..

Naughton plus two draft picks is the basis of a deal so worthy of being kicked around in August.

 

[Obeanie1]

I’ll stand by my point I think while Naughton is a good player I feel he is overrated. Is a good to average forward. Could be a better chb but certainly wouldn’t be giving up pick one for him with a few teen picks coming back.
Just because other clubs are interested doesn’t suddenly mean everyone is queuing up to hand over top 10 picks.

It was only a week or so ago the talk was 3 potential top 10 picks from GWS. Why would we do Naughton and 12 and 15? One of those top 10 picks would do Naughton probably with a bit of change left over then we would still have two top 10 picks plus change.

As for Moir don’t rate he has a nice kick and that’s about it I think there are plenty of other better options in the draft. His game on the weekend was his best by a fair way and wouldn’t say it was exactly screaming pick me.

Point taken on Tholstrup didn’t realise you had him at pick 19 .

It will be interesting what someone pays for Naughton if traded. Swans are keen so their 1st is close ATM.

After the top 5 this year the rest are pretty even. So 12 plus 15 likely gets similar quality as 9 an 10.

People don't rate Moir and that is understandable ATM. Hell it might just be Edwards or Curtin at 12, Sanders at 15 and Moir / Tholstrup at 19.

End of the day its do you bet all your pick 1 chips on one player?

Or do you, in this scenario , set up your KP forwards for 10 years and use two additional 1sts on addressing he midfield?

 

[Obeanie1]

Great skills. Great mark. And play in different positions of the ground when needed. Already has the don't argue like Martin does. Big and quick and has great goal sense.

Why wouldn't you want him on our list.
His exactly what we need and will bring some excitement to our stale list.

We need a player like him badly.

We need 10 players badly.

One super kid likely cops massive expectations and pressure to perform.

Spends two seasons here getting flogged. Simo gets sacked. Nisbitt shown the door.

Then in 2025 we have the fun of dealing with Geelong for a trade of a disgruntled 20 year old.

So that's the scenario that is concerning and potentially why it may be better to split the pick.

In a nut shell we have a long way to go so placing so much hope on a generational unicorn player is pretty risky.

 

[Jandamarra]

we need to ignaughton this year. chase when FA. FA stands for phuqall draft picks!

 

[bzparkes]

Naughton’s a top 10 pick every day of the week

He's not worth any deal that involves no.1 though, especially this close to pre-agency.

 

[kranky al]

Would rather Edward Norton

Would rather norton firewall

 

[bh90210fan]

He's not worth any deal that involves no.1 though, especially this close to pre-agency.

Yeah I wouldn’t trade pick 1 for him

 

[bzparkes]

It will be interesting what someone pays for Naughton if traded. Swans are keen so their 1st is close ATM.

After the top 5 this year the rest are pretty even. So 12 plus 15 likely gets similar quality as 9 an 10.

People don't rate Moir and that is understandable ATM. Hell it might just be Edwards or Curtin at 12, Sanders at 15 and Moir / Tholstrup at 19.

End of the day its do you bet all your pick 1 chips on one player?

Or do you, in this scenario , set up your KP forwards for 10 years and use two additional 1sts on addressing he midfield?

All the best clubs had the best performing midfields.

Look at Carlton, for instance. The last 2 Coleman medalists aren't doing shit for their finals hopes, because they can't get the ball to them consistently to begin with.

An argument could be made for Richmond, if it weren't for having 2x Brownlow medalists in the midfield, with a handy support cast.

Melbourne? Ben Brown and McDonald, supported by Fritsch, having the ball rammed down their throats by Petracca/Oliver.

Then there's the Hawks, who did just fine after Buddy left. On the flip side, Sydney have only lost grand finals with Buddy in the side.

Bulldogs had a beastly midfield, who turned it on, in 2016. Boyd had one great game in the grand final but was a middling contributor the rest of his time at WB.

You need one good/great KPF, in my opinion, and a decent second fiddle.

Blowing top picks on a KPF and then topping up the midfield with middling picks is a surefire way of NOT becoming a long-term contender. All the best sides have generally had the best midfield the year they won the flag, or at least the best performing one in finals.

 

[WCE_phil]

This is not an elite midfielders draft so here's the thing, If you don't think Reid is going to be a pure elite midfielder and he is the consensus number 1 pick, then trade it.

If it was 6,7,8 being offered for pick 1 I would do it.

Say the dogs finish 8th. That is pick 12 (I think if the supposed offer is true Himmelberg gets band 1 but McKay gets band 2) We promise not to big on Croft (I don't think he'll go that high anyway) and trade 8 and 39 for 12 and 16.

6,7,12,16,20 at the draft. 20 can probably be turned into a pick around 32 and a future second (hawks).

32 and 37 are Goad and Livingstone.

So who are the 5 players that go before pick 6 (discounting Walter) Reid, Duursma, Caddy I would suggest are locked in there.

I guess it comes down to who the other two are but I would still take the deal. We can add a Project ruck, a Project KPF, a KPD and 4 high quality flankers/outside mids all in the one draft. Go from being one of the slowest to the fastest team in the League in 1 draft.

 

[CountryLad]

It will be interesting what someone pays for Naughton if traded. Swans are keen so their 1st is close ATM.

After the top 5 this year the rest are pretty even. So 12 plus 15 likely gets similar quality as 9 an 10.

People don't rate Moir and that is understandable ATM. Hell it might just be Edwards or Curtin at 12, Sanders at 15 and Moir / Tholstrup at 19.

End of the day its do you bet all your pick 1 chips on one player?

Or do you, in this scenario , set up your KP forwards for 10 years and use two additional 1sts on addressing he midfield?

Just a couple of points .

I’d rather we actually use FA for highly paid players than trade using draft picks

I’m not so sure the draft is that even from pick 5.

I don’t see any urgency in getting another key forward if we were to take Livingstone.
Allen, J Williams, Livingstone with Darling, Waterman and Maric all on the list means our tall forwards situation isn’t dire.

I think the safe bet is to take the best available and do that for a few years. We need some A grade talent and we have a greater chance of getting that the better the pick.

 

[CountryLad]

This is not an elite midfielders draft so here's the thing, If you don't think Reid is going to be a pure elite midfielder and he is the consensus number 1 pick, then trade it.

If it was 6,7,8 being offered for pick 1 I would do it.

Say the dogs finish 8th. That is pick 12 (I think if the supposed offer is true Himmelberg gets band 1 but McKay gets band 2) We promise not to big on Croft (I don't think he'll go that high anyway) and trade 8 and 39 for 12 and 16.

6,7,12,16,20 at the draft. 20 can probably be turned into a pick around 32 and a future second (hawks).

32 and 37 are Goad and Livingstone.

So who are the 5 players that go before pick 6 (discounting Walter) Reid, Duursma, Caddy I would suggest are locked in there.

I guess it comes down to who the other two are but I would still take the deal. We can add a Project ruck, a Project KPF, a KPD and 4 high quality flankers/outside mids all in the one draft. Go from being one of the slowest to the fastest team in the League in 1 draft.

What’s your thoughts on Reid?

I think he can play mid and I actually see his lack of a tank and two way run, actually as a positive because they are areas you can genuinely improve when in an AFL environment.

He could well be a midfielder/forward however worse case I see him being a general forward in the mould of a Toby Greene or a tough general defender in the mould of a Hodge. He could be Pavlich like and play across all lines at different stages of his career.

Whether he is as good as those blokes who knows but I reckon he is a pretty safe bet to make it as a decent AFL player.

 

[Hangover Noir]

Would rather Edward Norton

How many weeks for his first kerb stomp?

 

[Obeanie1]

This is a horrible idea. Burn it burn it burn it quickly.
Naughton is a pick 20 at best and you want to give up our number 1 pick for him. Talk about over rating a player.

We need mids anyhow not key forwards right now so it would be giving up Reid for a one dimensional Naughton who can only play forward. Also if we have Naughton why do we need Moir.
We would have a team full of key forward and nothing else.

The modern game is built on athletic midfielders who can rotate through the forward half.

Moir a key forward? Well that proves you haven't done much research.

He's a big HFFer with midfield potential. Has even played half back. Currently struggling with a hip complaint so not getting midfield time.

Not that it matters. Replace him with a pure mid at 15 if that floats your boat.

People putting so many hopes in one 'unicorn super player' to drag us out of this mess has disaster and dissapointment written all over it.

Not to mention it's a huge amount of pressure to put on one draftee.

 

[Free Agent]

Moir a key forward? Well that proves you haven't done much research.

He's a big HFFer with midfield potential. Has even played half back. Currently struggling with a hip complaint so not getting midfield time.

Not that it matters. Replace him with a pure mid at 15 if that floats your boat.

People putting so many hopes in one 'unicorn super player' to drag us out of this mess has disaster and dissapointment written all over it.

Not to mention it's a huge amount of pressure to put on one draftee.

You sound a bit offended because I want us to draft Reid.

You just like our recruiting lately. To WA centric conservative. Pretty much the reason why we are last with poor list management not going for talent in other states especially Victoria.

Does Butters for Port look like leaving them. His probably going to win the Brownlow this year for them and possible premiership. There's so many examples of players that have had long successful careers like Luke Shuey moving across.
Have some faith and grow a set. Once our future looks bright with Reid Gibney Hewitt in just a few years we will be dominating. He won't be going anywhere and will be captaining our side.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Great skills. Great mark. And play in different positions of the ground when needed. Already has the don't argue like Martin does. Big and quick and has great goal sense.

Why wouldn't you want him on our list.
His exactly what we need and will bring some excitement to our stale list.

We need a player like him badly.

We've seen these highlights package before. Lots of him playing behind the ball and taking some nice marks then goes forward and beat up on skinny backs. The kick at 0:40 and the kick at 0:49 are the same kick with different outcomes and it's not down to skill, both weren't controlled kicks.

The commentary coming from the game on the weekend belies the reality that Reid had a poor game and didn't impact the result and moving on ball didn't change that.

If the Allies continue their form, then Vic Country is in big trouble, and it will be interesting to see if Reid has any impact if moved on ball. I suspect the Allies will work him over given their running power and ability to work for each other.

 

[Convocation]

You prompted me to do the ladder predictor and with both GWS and Tigers, their form is really hard to know how they will go. There will be a log jam for the 8th position and it can be anyone from Cats, Crows, Freo, Swans, Suns and Tigers. I have GWS finishing 14th and Tigers 13th meaning with the Himmelberg compo, they could hold 5, 6 and 7. Would I do it? Not sure as I need to take away the top 3 after HR and see what is left. Then I think we can safely say that Ben MacKay is likely gone meaning 5/6/7 becomes 6/7/8.

I will use the Rookie Me Central May power ratings so as to take emotion or opinion out of the dialogue and excluding Walters, E Reid, Rogers and Croft since they are out of bounds. The players available after Harley will be:-

AFL Draft Power Rankings: May 2023

The wait is over. It is time for Rookie Me Central's first Power Rankings instalment of 2023, featuring 20 of the top AFL Draft prospects.

central.rookieme.com

Watson, McKercher, Duursma, Curtin, Edwards, Wilson, Caddy, Moir, A Read, O'Sullivan, Freijah, Tholstrop and Sanders PLUS we still have some names to add once the carnival goes further and the season extends.

So the question is Harley Reid OR Edwards, Wilson and Caddy or whatever combination ends up being best available.

Look at Essendon in 2020 when they ended up with 8/9/10 (which started off 6/7/8 before NGA and F/S), they took Cox, Perkins and Z Reid. After that was Pedlar, Bruhn, Powell and Chapman so it was not as if the next 4 were much more enticing and the Bombers stuffed up (Reid does look a bust at this stage but at 201 cm - he may just need time)!!!


I am taking Harley over those 3 as it stands.

To tempt me, you would need Tigers and or GWS to have a dip and both Carlton and Hawks to be winning more than I give them credit for. I would want my first of the picks to be 3 or 4.

Great read (no pun intended).
IF we were to trade pick 1 for 6/7/8, does that deal look better to you if we were trade one of those picks (ideally 8) for Tim English (Dogs may think this is a better deal then him joining us next year without a trade)?

 

[WCE_phil]

What’s your thoughts on Reid?

I think he can play mid and I actually see his lack of a tank and two way run, actually as a positive because they are areas you can genuinely improve when in an AFL environment.

He could well be a midfielder/forward however worse case I see him being a general forward in the mould of a Toby Greene or a tough general defender in the mould of a Hodge. He could be Pavlich like and play across all lines at different stages of his career.

Whether he is as good as those blokes who knows but I reckon he is a pretty safe bet to make it as a decent AFL player.

Two way running and tank can potentially be a positive if not coming through a long term major development pathway. In Reid's case he has been in a premier development program for a long time. That points to laziness or lack of challenge.

To me it's a little bit like smart kids who don't have to study. They can dominate on pure ability at lower levels of study but once they get into an extreme learning environment where everyone has to study they stuggle as they never learnt. I think he'll be a very good player, but I don't have him locked in as a generational talent or close to a guaranteed top tier mid. He doesn't like losing but if he goes through a distinct patch of not being good enough etc there is a tendency for these players to not have the drive to become the best. I think in a development pathway you'd have to go old school with him and show him tough love. He's a risk to me.

If I want a small / medium marking target up forward with amazing skills and who is great one on one give me a pick between 10-15 for Delean. The same can be said for the other positions he can play all with picks between 8-20.

Also had a lot more of a look on Joel Freijah and he's inside my top 30 now BTW.

 

[CountryLad]

Two way running and tank can potentially be a positive if not coming through a long term major development pathway. In Reid's case he has been in a premier development program for a long time. That points to laziness or lack of challenge.

To me it's a little bit like smart kids who don't have to study. They can dominate on pure ability at lower levels of study but once they get into an extreme learning environment where everyone has to study they stuggle as they never learnt. I think he'll be a very good player, but I don't have him locked in as a generational talent or close to a guaranteed top tier mid. He doesn't like losing but if he goes through a distinct patch of not being good enough etc there is a tendency for these players to not have the drive to become the best. I think in a development pathway you'd have to go old school with him and show him tough love. He's a risk to me.

If I want a small / medium marking target up forward with amazing skills and who is great one on one give me a pick between 10-15 for Delean. The same can be said for the other positions he can play all with picks between 8-20.

Also had a lot more of a look on Joel Freijah and he's inside my top 30 now BTW.

Yeah I thought you were being a little hard on Freijah. Early days though lots will change as we know.

It’s interesting you say Harley has been in a long term development pathway. I thought with him being a kid that is still based outside of Melbourne he might not have had the same training coaching opportunities as some of the kids based in the city and the pathway may not be at the same standard?

I really like his competitive nature and it would be nice if he uses that to continue to drive himself to be the best he can.