Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[Jupes]

i's not like we're never going to have a top end pick again. let's be honest, over the next few years it's likely out first pick will be in the 1-5 range. if they feel reid clears the pack in terms of talent and ceiling just take him. if a club comes along and offers something we feel is huge overs then take that. if we're concerned a kid from an hour and a half north of bloody bendigo might want to leave we may as well close up shop seriously.

 

[WCE_phil]

Yeah I thought you were being a little hard on Freijah. Early days though lots is going to change as we know.

It’s interesting you say Harley has been in a long term development pathway. I thought with him being a kid that is still based outside of Melbourne he might not have had the same training coaching opportunities as some of the kids based in the city and the pathway may not be at the same standard?

I really like his competitive nature and it would be nice if he uses that to continue to drive himself to be the best he can.

As it turns out i'll be interviewing him later on in the year and I won't be able to post a lot of things in regards to certain aspects of players, clubs and the draft. So I will be able to form an in depth personal opinion later on in the year. Ankle is taking a lot longer to recover than expected so I'm in Australia until at least next year. Not moving to a SE Asian country until have sorted out all the joint and nerve issues. So 6 months more in the system.

 

[WCE_phil]

i's not like we're never going to have a top end pick again. let's be honest, over the next few years it's likely out first pick will be in the 1-5 range. if they feel reid clears the pack in terms of talent and ceiling just take him. if a club comes along and offers something we feel is huge overs then take that. if we're concerned a kid from an hour and a half north of bloody bendigo might want to leave we may as well close up shop seriously.

Let's say north really want pick 1. I'd happily trade 1 for pick 2/3 and their future first if North wanted Reid. Some really classy top end mid prospects, even those not tied to clubs next year. But that future pick would need to be a nigh on guaranteed top 4 pick. So really imo only really leaves us with north as a trade partner for a future pick etc.

 

[Kapowie1]

Apologies if it has been covered already but, if we get the spoon, does our second round pick if 19 (20 something after FS etc) stay the first pick of day 2?
If so, this pick becomes an important bargaining piece to trade for extra second or future picks to clubs chasing the slider of the draft or if we want to use it ourselves too. Previous years this pick has seen a lot of action.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[eaglespremiers]

Would rather Edward Norton

 

[archiemoses]

Naughton is crap and I also hate Norton Internet Security.

There not going to protect my internet and Naughton isn't going to win us a premiership.


There I said it.

I'm conflicted as I don't mind Edward Norton

 

[archiemoses]

As it turns out i'll be interviewing him later on in the year and I won't be able to post a lot of things in regards to certain aspects of players, clubs and the draft. So I will be able to form an in depth personal opinion later on in the year. Ankle is taking a lot longer to recover than expected so I'm in Australia until at least next year. Not moving to a SE Asian country until have sorted out all the joint and nerve issues. So 6 months more in the system.

You will never retire mate, you love it too much!

 

[Saintsone]

Two way running and tank can potentially be a positive if not coming through a long term major development pathway. In Reid's case he has been in a premier development program for a long time. That points to laziness or lack of challenge.

To me it's a little bit like smart kids who don't have to study. They can dominate on pure ability at lower levels of study but once they get into an extreme learning environment where everyone has to study they stuggle as they never learnt. I think he'll be a very good player, but I don't have him locked in as a generational talent or close to a guaranteed top tier mid. He doesn't like losing but if he goes through a distinct patch of not being good enough etc there is a tendency for these players to not have the drive to become the best. I think in a development pathway you'd have to go old school with him and show him tough love. He's a risk to me.

If I want a small / medium marking target up forward with amazing skills and who is great one on one give me a pick between 10-15 for Delean. The same can be said for the other positions he can play all with picks between 8-20.

Also had a lot more of a look on Joel Freijah and he's inside my top 30 now BTW.

Interesting in Ballarat Courier rebels coach David Loader said that the game early in the year where freijah kicked Six goals and had 27 disposals was one of the best games played by a rebels player in the last 15 years. The kids has a massive upside.

 

[CountryLad]

Interesting in Ballarat Courier rebels coach David Loader said that the game early in the year where freijah kicked Six goals and had 27 disposals was one of the best games played by a rebels player in the last 15 years. The kids has a massive upside.

That’s why he’s so hard to place. That game is the best individual game by any player this year to date. However other games he has been alright and then in others a little underwhelming.
Most boards have him as a late 1st to mid second which puts him around our second pick so he’s an interesting one atm for the Eagles.

 

[briztoon]

Honestly what a draft to trade out of the top 10. Out of the top thirteen, Chayce Jones is probably the “worst” and even he is currently one of Adelaide’s starting wingers. Everyone else is a gun, including two key forwards around their pick, which was their most pressing need at the time.

Duursma also selected the pick after Sturt.

Absolutely nailed that Peter. Feather in cap etc etc

There's either a bit of, a) revision going on here, or b) failing memories.

Bailey Smith openly said he didn't want to move interstate, especially to Gold Coast.

St Kilda tweeted that they'd be coming hard after Ben King right after he got drafted by the Suns.

And, I can't remember if it was the Port or Adelaide recruiter, but one of them said in an interview right before the draft, to leave the top SA kids alone, and if you do draft them, the SA clubs would be coming after them in two years time when their rookie contracts expired.

Brisbane originally had pick 5, and our recruiters only had two names on our list of players to draft in the top 10. Sam Walsh, a die hard Lions fan (as in had Lions posters all over his bedroom walls and home gym in the garage), and Jye Caldwell.

After Caldwell, the next name on our recruiters list was Duursma. That's how our recruiters viewed the 2018 draft after the top 9. Caldwell, then Duursma. (no idea where our recruiters rated Butters).

Our recruiters viewed all the other kids as probable flight risks.

No one was talking Butters up as a top 10 prospect on the draft boards.

Thanks to Twomey, everyone was talking about the top 8 prospects in the draft, as Twomey coined it, the elite 8. Walsh, Rankine, Lukosius, Rozee, King, King, Smith and Blakey. Then Tarryn Thomas made a late push to make it 9 elite talents in the one draft.

Two of those kids were club tied as NGA kids.

All three SA kids were spoken about as flight risks if drafted out of SA. Same with King, King and Smith out of Vic.

Keep pick 1 and take the best player.

Take a look at what Freo did with an amazing draft hand in 2018. Had pick 5 and 6 which eventually ended up being Connor Rozee and Max King - not to mention guys like Bailey Smith and Zak Butters also being available. However Freo sent one of those pics went to Melbourne for Jesse Hogan and the other got split to Port for a bunch of lower picks.

Freo’s first pic ended up blowing out to around 16 after F/S and academy selections and they took Sam Sturt.

You're taking pot shots at Freo for exactly the same thing your club did last draft, splitting a top pick. There's no guarantee your trade works out any better.

I'm not defending Freo here, just pointing out glass houses and blinkers.

 

[briztoon]

As far as I can tell there are a lot of heads in sand in respect to Reid and the clear defects in his game and briztoon has made some reasonable observations about him.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

Shhh. You can't speak ill of the chosen one.

 

[briztoon]

You don't normally start hearing about draft picks, no1's, top 10's etc until closer to the end of the season.
I can not recall this much talk and hype about a player ever. He was being talked about before the season began.
"There's that Harley Reid name again" "There it is again" "Who TF is this kid"

Bryce Gibbs, Murphy, Patton, Boyd, had a lot of hype but that was more toward the end of the season.

The Judd, Hodge, Ball draft as well and that was more what order would they go in.

Nahh, you get No1 pick this year. YOU F-N DRAFT HARLEY REID. Simple.

Take it you haven't really followed the draft before.

I can guarantee draft watchers were talking up Petracca in his under age year.

Rankine was being spoken about since his U16 year, as he was already playing SANFL and making grown men look stupid.

Both Walsh and Rowell were being spoken about in their bottom age years. Both were the dominant player on the ground as bottom age kids in TAC cup grand finals.

Matt Rendell (ex Collingwood and Adelaide recruiter) was talking up Daicos since the beginning of his U17 year, about how good this kid was, and that started off two years of discussions or Daicos v Jason Horne, as JHF was playing SANFL as a 17 year old.

And Rendell then went and did the same with Ashcroft the year after.


Reid absolutely deserved such level of hype, based off his National Championships performances LAST YEAR, where he was the most influential player on the field for Vic Country playing half back and half forward.

As a half back, he was intercepting everything in the air and providing significant drive from half back. And as a half forward, he was marking everything and kicking goals, and literally no one could defend him.

 

[Obeanie1]

You sound a bit offended because I want us to draft Reid.

You just like our recruiting lately. To WA centric conservative. Pretty much the reason why we are last with poor list management not going for talent in other states especially Victoria.

Does Butters for Port look like leaving them. His probably going to win the Brownlow this year for them and possible premiership. There's so many examples of players that have had long successful careers like Luke Shuey moving across.
Have some faith and grow a set. Once our future looks bright with Reid Gibney Hewitt in just a few years we will be dominating. He won't be going anywhere and will be captaining our side.

Not offended at all.

Ive been posting that our WA centric recruiting has restricted natural list turnover to our detriment. And that the two WA clubs should trade more often as we are allowing Eastern teams a massive advantage. That needs to be addressed one way or the other.

I have no issues drafting non WA talent. Especially this year because there is very little WA top end talent.

If we ended up with picks 6,7 and 8 I would use 6 and 7 on non WA kids. Curtin possibly with 8. Would look to split one of them actually.

The recent issue being discussed was comparing the era Judd came and succeeded in versus now if Reid came in.

Do we bring in a single player in the rebuild or three to spread the load and the risk?

So you are off with the fairies with the reference to Butters and Shuey. Happy to draft Caddy or Watson, Wilson or Sanders or Moir atthe right pick.

 

[Obeanie1]

It's a well thought out post, until the bolded.

We're losing by an average margin well in excess of ten goals to sides in theory challenging us for the wooden spoon.

Yes, us mere mortals know the list is ****ed.

I know you are joking but he wasnt talking just about the list situation.

Its the entire current club environment. A losing culture with instability and some harsh changes coming in many areas. There is more than one mess needing to be cleaned up. This ongoing injury plague and the SC team another house to get back in order. And we have made some changes already.1

 

[Priddis Is Done]

Two way running and tank can potentially be a positive if not coming through a long term major development pathway. In Reid's case he has been in a premier development program for a long time. That points to laziness or lack of challenge.

To me it's a little bit like smart kids who don't have to study. They can dominate on pure ability at lower levels of study but once they get into an extreme learning environment where everyone has to study they stuggle as they never learnt. I think he'll be a very good player, but I don't have him locked in as a generational talent or close to a guaranteed top tier mid. He doesn't like losing but if he goes through a distinct patch of not being good enough etc there is a tendency for these players to not have the drive to become the best. I think in a development pathway you'd have to go old school with him and show him tough love. He's a risk to me.

If I want a small / medium marking target up forward with amazing skills and who is great one on one give me a pick between 10-15 for Delean. The same can be said for the other positions he can play all with picks between 8-20.

Also had a lot more of a look on Joel Freijah and he's inside my top 30 now BTW.

There was a book I was reading a while ago. The performance mindset. By Anthony j. Klarika.

Worked with the national tennis juniors and development and various AFL clubs.

Echoes your exact sentiments. Time and time again he found the talented junior failed in the big league. Talent only got them so far. The ones that were successful had to overcome obstacles / hardship. It created a greater energy and driver / will to succeed.

I'm torn on Reid. He's not a generational talent. For me to believe that I'd need to see him rack up large numbers in the midfield consistely and tearing teams apart.

If I had a crystal ball and he made it into the midfield as I described then yes, no 1 pick every day. If he remains amazing outside of the midfield, split the pick.

 

[Mop]

I know you are joking but he wasnt talking just about the list situation.

Its the entire current club environment. A losing culture with instability and some harsh changes coming in many areas. There is more than one mess needing to be cleaned up. This ongoing injury plague and the SC team another house to get back in order. And we have made some changes already.1

Yeah I don't disagree mate. Complete nuclear start again is required.

 

[twadds]

Great skills. Great mark. And play in different positions of the ground when needed. Already has the don't argue like Martin does. Big and quick and has great goal sense.

Why wouldn't you want him on our list.
His exactly what we need and will bring some excitement to our stale list.

We need a player like him badly.

Apologies if it has been covered already but, if we get the spoon, does our second round pick if 19 (20 something after FS etc) stay the first pick of day 2?
If so, this pick becomes an important bargaining piece to trade for extra second or future picks to clubs chasing the slider of the draft or if we want to use it ourselves too. Previous years this pick has seen a lot of action.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

* the other clubs. We want (or should want) the big dog for once.

 

[Obeanie1]

All the best clubs had the best performing midfields.

Look at Carlton, for instance. The last 2 Coleman medalists aren't doing s**t for their finals hopes, because they can't get the ball to them consistently to begin with.

An argument could be made for Richmond, if it weren't for having 2x Brownlow medalists in the midfield, with a handy support cast.

Melbourne? Ben Brown and McDonald, supported by Fritsch, having the ball rammed down their throats by Petracca/Oliver.

Then there's the Hawks, who did just fine after Buddy left. On the flip side, Sydney have only lost grand finals with Buddy in the side.

Bulldogs had a beastly midfield, who turned it on, in 2016. Boyd had one great game in the grand final but was a middling contributor the rest of his time at WB.

You need one good/great KPF, in my opinion, and a decent second fiddle.

Blowing top picks on a KPF and then topping up the midfield with middling picks is a surefire way of NOT becoming a long-term contender. All the best sides have generally had the best midfield the year they won the flag, or at least the best performing one in finals.

All logical.

Until as others have pointed out this isnt a draft for eliete midfielders. 2024 is.

Is Reid an elite midfielder? Or an eliete flanker like Toby Green?

 

[Wooshaaaa]

All logical.

Until as others have pointed out this isnt a draft for eliete midfielders. 2024 is.

Is Reid an elite midfielder? Or an eliete flanker like Toby Green?

If he's anything like Toby green we have to take him. There's not a club in the land that wouldn't be infinitely better with Green.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bzparkes]

All logical.

Until as others have pointed out this isnt a draft for eliete midfielders. 2024 is.

Is Reid an elite midfielder? Or an eliete flanker like Toby Green?

Green is easily worth the no.1 pick, with the power of looking back at his draft in hindsight.

We need a lot of everything, not just midfielders. If Reid is far and away the best talent this draft, then we simply must take him.

With that in mind, there's still the champs to come and we don't know yet who might close the gap, or even pass him.

Maybe there's a better prospect at the end of the year. Or maybe there's not much to separate them, in which case trading slightly back could be worth it.

 

[StateOE]

All logical.

Until as others have pointed out this isnt a draft for eliete midfielders. 2024 is.

Is Reid an elite midfielder? Or an eliete flanker like Toby Green?

Toby greene isnt an argument against as you think it is.
Hes a match winner.
Thats what you want in a pick 1.

 

[Obeanie1]

Toby greene isnt an argument against as you think it is.
Hes a match winner.
Thats what you want in a pick 1.

Is Watson a match winner?

What pick did Toby Green go?

Petracca is one and wasn't pick 1.

Judd went pick 3.

Match winners are not restricted to '#1 picks. Far from it.

 

[Cuzz09]

I'm flippin', I'm floppin'

I can't decide

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[StateOE]

Is Watson a match winner?

What pick did Toby Green go?

Petracca is one and wasn't pick 1.

Judd went pick 3.

Match winners are not restricted to '#1 picks. Far from it.

No one is saying you cant.

The question should be, would you use pick 1 on Judd and Petracca with the benefit of hindsight?

Doesnt matter what pick they went.

The difference is you get first choice on who you want.

Keep trading down if you want to draft from a pool of leftovers.

 

[Convocation]

I think what is getting lost in the wash a little is that IF we were to trade pick one for 3 picks inside 10 as discussed, we don't have to use those picks on the draft. We can use them to trade in a player/s, or split one of the picks for more draft capital/trade, or use the picks to go lower in the draft e.g.

If we use the GWS discussed option of picks 6/7/8 for pick 1, options could be:

• Traded pick 6, 7 or 8 for Tim English, leaving us with still two picks inside the top 8
• Traded 2 picks from 6,7 or 8 to get a pick 2,3 or 4.
• Could we temp Sam Taylor
  15

  Sam Taylor

  Age

  25

  Ht

  198cm

  Wt

  95kg

  Pos.

  Def

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  10.0

  3star

  K

  4.6

  2star

  HB

  5.4

  4star

  M

  3.3

  3star

  T

  2.1

  4star

  MG

  130.5

  2star

  D

  8.0

  2star

  K

  2.5

  1star

  HB

  5.5

  3star

  M

  2.8

  3star

  T

  2.5

  3star

  MG

  60.8

  1star

  D

  8.6

  3star

  K

  3.0

  1star

  HB

  5.6

  4star

  M

  1.2

  2star

  T

  2.8

  5star

  MG

  110.8

  2star

  , Nick Martin (), Chad Warner
  1

  Chad Warner

  Age

  23

  Ht

  185cm

  Wt

  82kg

  Pos.

  Mid

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  7.0

  2star

  K

  4.5

  2star

  HB

  2.5

  2star

  M

  1.5

  2star

  T

  1.5

  3star

  CL

  0.0

  1star

  D

  7.0

  1star

  K

  4.5

  2star

  HB

  2.5

  2star

  M

  1.5

  2star

  T

  1.5

  2star

  CL

  0.0

  1star

  D

  7.0

  2star

  K

  4.5

  2star

  HB

  2.5

  3star

  M

  1.5

  2star

  T

  1.5

  4star

  CL

  0.0

  1star

  , Liam Baker
  3

  Liam Baker

  Age

  26

  Ht

  173cm

  Wt

  72kg

  Pos.

  D/F

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  15.7

  4star

  K

  7.8

  3star

  HB

  7.9

  5star

  M

  3.2

  3star

  T

  2.6

  4star

  MG

  222.2

  3star

  D

  14.6

  4star

  K

  6.8

  3star

  HB

  7.9

  4star

  M

  3.8

  4star

  T

  1.8

  3star

  MG

  191.9

  3star

  D

  14.4

  4star

  K

  6.2

  3star

  HB

  8.2

  5star

  M

  1.6

  2star

  T

  1.8

  4star

  MG

  224.2

  4star

  , Shai Bolton
  15

  Shai Bolton

  Age

  26

  Ht

  176cm

  Wt

  77kg

  Pos.

  M/F

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  12.3

  3star

  K

  6.9

  3star

  HB

  5.4

  4star

  M

  2.8

  3star

  T

  2.9

  4star

  CL

  1.4

  4star

  D

  12.7

  3star

  K

  9.2

  4star

  HB

  3.5

  2star

  M

  3.0

  3star

  T

  2.7

  4star

  CL

  1.8

  4star

  D

  9.2

  3star

  K

  4.6

  2star

  HB

  4.6

  4star

  M

  2.0

  3star

  T

  2.6

  4star

  CL

  0.0

  1star

  , Cogniglio to come home or a a non WA player to come to WA, and if so how do we use the picks we have to Win the deal.

Note: I'm not saying this what we should do, and/or could be achieved, merely examples of the picks being used for something other then picking up 3 kids in the drafts