Prediction When will the rebuild officially commence?

[CatToTheFuture]

Yes I do.

Ah that's why you love stats

Genuine question..Which inside and outside mids did we draft last year? Do they stand a chance of being A graders.
I thinks Holmes and Stephens do, but that was 19 and 20

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Depends what you mean by A graders

Knevitt, Whyte, Willis, Kroeger all have attributes that could see them be best 22 in a good team. Maybe they don't lead it, but maybe we trade for a player who does next year. Or 2023 after we start playing these guys we get a top 10 pick and draft a player who can after 50 games. Holmes might be that player by next year at his rate of development.

 

[Lana]

Very good summary. An economist would love you

Yes I do.

I'm just happy it made sense to people. A whiteboard and some graphs would have helped.

Ah that's why you love stats

Economists know how to have a good time

Friends what you mean by A graders

A wheeled machine for levelling the ground, especially in making roads.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm just happy it made sense to people. A whiteboard and some graphs would have helped.



Economists know how to have a good time



A wheeled machine for levelling the ground, especially in making roads.

And who says it has to be the dismal science

 

[D BRIDGE]

Probably when we eventually miss the 8.

 

[scottydeewah]

There are always supporters who are keen to throw away every player and go for youth. The players at Geelong who would have been fired before they reached their peak is long:

• Bartel
• Ling
• Corey Enright.
• Shannon Burns.
• etc. etc.

Why rebuild? Who not just have a crack at it every year? The Cats are the best value ticket in the AFL. Our fans are happy 17-18 weeks out of 22 most years, and are still watching 1-2 weeks from the end. Sure losing GFs and PFs is shit, but not as shit as supporting every other team.

Our youth also isn't that bad:

• Parfitt is 23 and played 97 games.
• Holmes is 19 and played 13 games.
• Close 23 and 30 odd games.
• Zach G 23 and played 35 games.
• Henry 23 and played 91 games.
• Miers 22 and 61 games.
• Evans 20 and played 3 games.
• Ratugolea 23 and played 56 games.
• De Koning 21 and played 2 games.
• Stengle 21 and played 18 games.

3-6 of those players are playing each week and important contributes to our squad. We have some good middle-aged players too, Stewart, Jake, Bews, etc.

One last thing. If any single trait defines the last 10 years in all sports, it is players playing longer than ever. Some of these are outliers, but in general, athletes are playing better for longer. Ronaldo, Brady, Serena, Fed, Nadal, Slater, etc. etc. We still have a thing in the AFL where we think players over 30 are done. But if you retire going into your age 34 season, that is three more entire years of playing, which in football is a lifetime!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Don't think the rebuild ever stopped and has been a continual process over the past decade

If people are expecting a Carlton like tanking, extended time at the bottom of the ladder type rebuild, then they may be disappointed as that looks the total opposite of what the club is trying to do as they rebuild & transition

traditional rebuilds are dead.

Free agency and trading have to be optimised just as much as drafting to be a flag threat in modern day.

the draft was first introduced in some format in what... 1981?? how many failed rebuilds did melbourne, bulldogs, geelong, richmond go through to finally get one of their rebuilds good enough to win a flag?? the ratio of cycled attempts at rebuilding to achieve a side good enough for a flag is often decades and in some cases ( geelong's case) it was 44 years.

too many just think we are going to do a 07-11 once we fall down the ladder and it will be magic nostalgia like reliving the favourite memories of a childhood all over again... odds are it will be extremely different.

 

[My Tilly]

too many just think we are going to do a 07-11 once we fall down the ladder and it will be magic nostalgia like reliving the favourite memories of a childhood all over again... odds are it will be extremely different.

I don't think we will ever see it again at Geelong. That 07-11 team will go down as top 5 all time.

 

[foxdog50]

I'm very concerned about our team... especially our age list thats actually playing... and pin point a main position is our midfield...
We need to start playing kids more there, but I can't see the coach playing them...
Especially when we have Menegola, Rohan ( unfortunately Rohan ) will be in the 22 in a month's time...
We only have Parfitt who is we 23-25 should hope to start showing more consistency.
Holmes has potential.
But you look at our core mids
Selwood, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Stanley, Smith, Duncan's there all over 30... id say 14 out of the rest teams all have so much youth that are giving game times, we're we aren't...
I don't mind our defence in age list, it's probably our no 1 part of the team, put SDK in there which will help. But I wouldn't mind another KPD to help out...

 

[Drunkcat]

I'm very concerned about our team... especially our age list thats actually playing... and pin point a main position is our midfield...
We need to start playing kids more there, but I can't see the coach playing them...
Especially when we have Menegola, Rohan ( unfortunately Rohan ) will be in the 22 in a month's time...
We only have Parfitt who is we 23-25 should hope to start showing more consistency.
Holmes has potential.
But you look at our core mids
Selwood, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Stanley, Smith, Duncan's there all over 30... id say 14 out of the rest teams all have so much youth that are giving game times, we're we aren't...
I don't mind our defence in age list, it's probably our no 1 part of the team, put SDK in there which will help. But I wouldn't mind another KPD to help out...

If we get covid we will play the kids lol

 

[foxdog50]

If we get covid we will play the kids lol

Hmmmm covid might be a good thing than

 

[Down at K Park]

I'm very concerned about our team... especially our age list thats actually playing... and pin point a main position is our midfield...
We need to start playing kids more there, but I can't see the coach playing them...
Especially when we have Menegola, Rohan ( unfortunately Rohan ) will be in the 22 in a month's time...
We only have Parfitt who is we 23-25 should hope to start showing more consistency.
Holmes has potential.
But you look at our core mids
Selwood, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Stanley, Smith, Duncan's there all over 30... id say 14 out of the rest teams all have so much youth that are giving game times, we're we aren't...
I don't mind our defence in age list, it's probably our no 1 part of the team, put SDK in there which will help. But I wouldn't mind another KPD to help out...

I saw cooper s had 20 touches and 9 clearances if the vfl. Throw him in and see what he can do.

Can’t be any worse than what dangerfield was friday night.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I don't think we will ever see it again at Geelong. That 07-11 team will go down as top 5 all time.

Agreed. It really should have a 4th flag to do it justice. Teams like Richmond do not deserve the same outcome as we had. Pound for pound there is an immense talent difference.

Not sure if I would call it a rebuild in modern times but we have to slip out of the top 4 at some point, it is impossible to stay a premiership threat for 15+ years.

Our midfield looks bottom 8 quality this year and will be a very difficult thing to compensate and cover up strategically. So see how things panned out.

I thought 5th-9th range for finish as I didn’t see a lot of difference in those sides.

Will be a few interesting years to see how it pans out.

 

[foxdog50]

I saw cooper s had 20 touches and 9 clearances if the vfl. Throw him in and see what he can do.

Can’t be any worse than what dangerfield was friday night.

I agree, and play Dangerfield in Rohan position with the half of the times going in the midfield...

 

[STPer18]

I saw cooper s had 20 touches and 9 clearances if the vfl. Throw him in and see what he can do.

Can’t be any worse than what dangerfield was friday night.

Watch him get overlooked for the 34 year old Shaun Higgins.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I saw cooper s had 20 touches and 9 clearances if the vfl. Throw him in and see what he can do.

Can’t be any worse than what dangerfield was friday night.

He probably needs a few more weeks, club is cautious with him and his injury history, hasn't really played for 2 years.
Give him maybe 2/3 more games then he'll be in the AFL I reckon.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm very concerned about our team... especially our age list thats actually playing... and pin point a main position is our midfield...
We need to start playing kids more there, but I can't see the coach playing them...
Especially when we have Menegola, Rohan ( unfortunately Rohan ) will be in the 22 in a month's time...
We only have Parfitt who is we 23-25 should hope to start showing more consistency.
Holmes has potential.
But you look at our core mids
Selwood, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Stanley, Smith, Duncan's there all over 30... id say 14 out of the rest teams all have so much youth that are giving game times, we're we aren't...
I don't mind our defence in age list, it's probably our no 1 part of the team, put SDK in there which will help. But I wouldn't mind another KPD to help out...

I think a few games for kids filtered through to ensure continuity of leadership for sure but I think there's an argument that the final goal needs to be a midfield that is a cohesive unit.

Some interesting insight from gain line on this that I read up on some years ago implies that cohesion is the number one determinant of success and this is measured through games played together. Gain lines analysis was that this cohesion is built all the way from junior level and my guess at the time we drafted Kennerley and Jarvis, and then Taheny was that they were trying to create a connected group that had been playing in state sides, Eyre peninsula representative sides, Norwood, and then the cats.

It didn't work out there but I think they're sticking with the idea in going for so many Falcons in a group. Stephens & Stevens, Conway/Whyte/Knevitt. If they trade in Bruhn then those 5 have all played juniors with him.

If you're trying to maximise cohesion then rather than trickle in there may be an argument that our best option is to keep them in the same vfl side for a year week in week out to just get their total games together up then drop them in as a unit.

I'm not sure that's what they'd do or of I'd do it, but if you're maximising cohesion per the gain line definition then that's the strategy.

Understanding Cohesion in Teams: What Makes Gain Line Analytics’ Measurement of Team Performance Unique – Bullpen

www.bullpen.com.au

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I agree, and play Dangerfield in Rohan position with the half of the times going in the midfield...

It’s fair to say dangerfield has slipped significantly. He is a shadow of himself. Games like the weekends show the gap between his best and worst is increasing to say the least.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

He probably needs a few more weeks, club is cautious with him and his injury history, hasn't really played for 2 years.
Give him maybe 2/3 more games then he'll be in the AFL I reckon.

20 VFL touches is nothing to write home about or push for an AFL selection. Would expect a better output than that as a VFL full time mid to push for AFL.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think a few games for kids filtered through to ensure continuity of leadership for sure but I think there's an argument that the final goal needs to be a midfield that is a cohesive unit.

Some interesting insight from gain line on this that I read up on some years ago implies that cohesion is the number one determinant of success and this is measured through games played together. Gain lines analysis was that this cohesion is built all the way from junior level and my guess at the time we drafted Kennerley and Jarvis, and then Taheny was that they were trying to create a connected group that had been playing in state sides, Eyre peninsula representative sides, Norwood, and then the cats.

It didn't work out there but I think they're sticking with the idea in going for so many Falcons in a group. Stephens & Stevens, Conway/Whyte/Knevitt. If they trade in Bruhn then those 5 have all played juniors with him.

If you're trying to maximise cohesion then rather than trickle in there may be an argument that our best option is to keep them in the same vfl side for a year week in week out to just get their total games together up then drop them in as a unit.

I'm not sure that's what they'd do or of I'd do it, but if you're maximising cohesion per the gain line definition then that's the strategy.

Understanding Cohesion in Teams: What Makes Gain Line Analytics’ Measurement of Team Performance Unique – Bullpen

www.bullpen.com.au

Another thought to add to this is that this is another reason to put Sav in the 2s as a deep forward.

When the rubber hits the road for him it's this group that will be feeding it to him so it's these guys he needs to develop connection with.

 

[PzBlinky]

20 VFL touches is nothing to write home about or push for an AFL selection. Would expect a better output than that as a VFL full time mid to push for AFL.

Apparently he spent a fair bit of time on the bench in the second half. Probably needs a few more weeks to build match fitness but 9 clearances (or 8 according to AFL.com.au) isn't anything to sneeze - Narkle came second with 6.

 

[My Tilly]

Agreed. It really should have a 4th flag to do it justice. Teams like Richmond do not deserve the same outcome as we had. Pound for pound there is an immense talent difference.

Not sure if I would call it a rebuild in modern times but we have to slip out of the top 4 at some point, it is impossible to stay a premiership threat for 15+ years.

Our midfield looks bottom 8 quality this year and will be a very difficult thing to compensate and cover up strategically. So see how things panned out.

I thought 5th-9th range for finish as I didn’t see a lot of difference in those sides.

Will be a few interesting years to see how it pans out.

Yep, 2008 and 2013 were flags we should have won.
2013 having led Hawthorn by 19 points, 13 minutes into the final quarter. Somehow choked it away and allowed Hawthorn to seal the deal and beat Fremantle in the grand final.

There won't be anything interesting at all about the next few years.
Unlike yourself, I don't see this team as a premiership contender (as you put it last week when we defeated Essendon).
I see this team as chokers with a small underbelly of promising youth emerging but it's rather bleak. Now is the time to be investing in the kids but when you have Menegola, Higgins, Rohan still to return, and you have Dahlhaus, Higgins, Stanley etc, it's the same old team we had in 2018 when we should have gone the youth route.
Not interesting at all. Rather predictable few years coming up.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Apparently he spent a fair bit of time on the bench in the second half. Probably needs a few more weeks to build match fitness but 9 clearances (or 8 according to AFL.com.au) isn't anything to sneeze - Narkle came second with 6.

If he spent a fair bit of time in the second half on the bench due to fitness then he is a long way off being fit enough to run out a game as a full time AFL mid.

 

[PzBlinky]

If he spent a fair bit of time in the second half on the bench due to fitness then he is a long way off being fit enough to run out a game as a full time AFL mid.

That's true, but it's also a reflection of fitness and not a reflection of his skill or ability.

 

[Down at K Park]

I agree, and play Dangerfield in Rohan position with the half of the times going in the midfield...

I don’t want dangerfield forward. In the guts or nothing for me. Unless he can miraculously learn how to kick properly.

I’d take someone else out of the midfield to give cooper some games.

 

[cats_09]

Looks like there's some cleaning up required before consideration can be given to reopen the thread