Where Do the Swans Go From Here?

[Damon_3388]

Currently the Sydney Swans sit 5th on the ladder by percentage. Most would assume they'll rally over the next couple of weeks, finish top four, and maybe win a final or two, before bowing out in either Week Two (Semis) or Three (Prelims), and that'll be about "correct weight" for them, given how they've gone during the year.

Leaving aside "where they're at" in 2015, where do they go in 2016 and beyond? Assumedly, Adam Goodes (35 years old) and Rhyce Shaw (34 in October) are in line for retirement, regardless of how the season ends, and Alex Johnson (23-year-old, 193cm defender from the 2012 Premiership side) isn't expected to play again until 2017. That would leave the remaining players on their list looking something like this:

Best 22
B: Jeremy Laidler - Ted Richards - Nick Smith
HB: Dane Rampe - Heath Grundy - Jarrad McVeigh
C: Daniel Hannebery - Luke Parker - Lewis Jetta
HF: Gary Rohan - Sam Reid - Ben McGlynn
F: Isaac Heeney - Lance Franklin - Kurt Tippett
R: Mike Pyke - Josh Kennedy - Kieren Jack
I: Dean Towers - Tom Mitchell - Craig Bird - Toby Nankervis

Reserves
B: Lewis Melican - Xavier Richards - Zac Jones
HB: Nick Newman - Aliir Aliir - Jordan Foote
C: Lloyd Perris - Daniel Robinson - Jake Lloyd
HF: Brandon Jack - Abaina Davis - Jack Hiscox
F: Harry Cunningham - Sean McLaren - James Rose
R: Tom Derickx - Harrison Marsh - George Hewett
I: Sam Naismith

Obviously from there you're going to have probably 5-6 de-listings and some new draftees coming in and so forth. That best 22 has five players who'll be 30 or over in 2016 (Richards, Pyke, McVeigh, McGlynn and Grundy), and a few others (Franklin, Tippett and Jack) will be 29, and assumedly at their absolute peak before (if you think of a player's "prime" generally being between the ages of 25-29) age does begin to catch up with them. They're all capable of good football for a number of years yet, but they need all of these guys fit and firing and having no age or injury-related drop offs to remain contenders. They'll still have other stars and good players with a fair chunk of their prime to be played (Hannebery, Kennedy, Smith, Jetta, Reid), but they'll need them to "stay up" and also need a few of those guys from that reserves group (particularly on the defensive side IMO) to make a name for themselves next year at least.

How do the Swans manage things going forward? What are their greatest areas of need? Should they make major changes, just slowly transition towards a new era, or milk this current group of veterans for all they're worth before bottoming out? The trade/free agency restrictions, and the Buddy deal (still another seven years to go after 2015) are further wrinkles and hurdles to overcome. It all makes for interesting times on the harbour. What does BigFooty think?

 

[greatgatsby]

Very serious, almost stalker-level, analysis of an opposition team!

 

[SilentHunter_]

Gave a like just for the in depth analysis

 

[Kakkle]

Their KPD depth is basically non existent.

 

[Poppacorn]

Very serious, almost stalker-level, analysis of an opposition team!

Even got a Capper avatar!

 

[krisholio14]

Still plenty of young talent on their list. Despite recent goings on, they'll always find ways to attract the odd big name FA up there too.

 

[Syd]

Still plenty of young talent on their list. Despite recent goings on, they'll always find ways to attract the odd big name FA up there too.

Not for another 24-months

Trade ban has snapped the window shut.

Nice OP, but you missed the 2 biggest issues ATM

1. Coaching, and
2. On field leadership (no Kirk types left)

 

[Hawkers]

Will Richards and Grundy go around again?

How old will they be and are they contracted?

 

[Syd]

Will Richards and Grundy go around again?

How old will they be and are they contracted?

Grundy will\must go around again.
Just re-signed

Richards, not so much

Go sign another free agent.
You can have everyone

 

[Donners]

The immediate concerns are ruck and key defence.

Regarding the former, Pyke is looking pretty much cooked. He's gone backwards in his on-field output and is increasingly injury-prone. The other options don't really inspire confidence - Derrickx is almost at "Torture" Chambers level and neither Nankervis nor Naismith are walk-up starters. Tippett's a handy part-time option, but I don't think we'd get a full season of ruck from him.

As for the latter, Richards and Grundy are getting towards the end and Johnson won't be back soon if ever. Laidler and Rampe are a little undersized and not really up for dealing with the monster forwards. Alir and X Richards aren't breaking down the door. Could Reid go back? He's a great mark but I'm not sure about his positioning and decision making.

The big problem here is that there won't be any ready-made players for these positions in the draft, and the trade ban really limits the options. Maybe there's another Ted Richards or Craig Bolton out there, but that's wishful thinking.

We have too many similar midfielders - great at getting the contested ball, not great at disposing of it. Parker, Hannebery, Kennedy and Mitchell all fit in that category, and I think one really needs to go if we can get a decent deal. Mitchell seems the one most out of favour at the club, but his performances have made that seem bizarre. It'd be very interesting if they made a big call on one of that quartet.

I'd expect Goodes, Shaw, Pyke and Richards will retire by the end of next year (the first two likely this year) and McVeigh, McGlynn and Grundy may not be far behind. Tippett will presumably either be let go or will take a big pay cut.

This offseason will be crucial.

 

[YeahNahYeahNah]

What is the reason for them being banned from trading?

 

[Beachsleeper]

What is the reason for them being banned from trading?

Exactly.

 

[Mister B]

What is the reason for them being banned from trading?

Because the AFL tried to manipulate the draft / trade period to get Franklin illegally to GWS. Sydney managed their cap well enough to get Franklin in legally and following the rules. Fitzpatrick spat the dummy because he didn't get his way, despite what he was trying to do copped Adelaide penalties a couple of years earlier. As a result Fitzpatrick decided to punish the Swans while acknowledging they did nothing wrong.

 

[The 747]

Can we leave the trade ban argument aside and consider what was a good OP.

Always hard to judge the Swans depth because they develop players for a long time in the seconds.

 

[L_W_P]

If you believe the hype then Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney will carry them to multiple flags in the next 2-3 years before the GWS Giants mature enough to destroy us all for a generation.

 

[Maddhew]

Need to take a leaf out of Hawthorns book and trade in players like Lake/Frawley. Not sure how we can do this with trade restrictions but we do have some midfield depth.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

They'll win all their remaining games and finish 4th.

 

[RUNVS]

Our KPD depth is such a worry that people on the Swans board have genuinely suggested we rookie Lachie Keeffe because then we will have a KPD at the start of the 2017 season.

Truth be told though the big worry is the midfield. It is not an old midfield as well which is the strange thing but if you look at Kennedy, Jack, McVeigh and Hannebery they are all worse players than they were in 2012. Why they are worse we have no idea but the Swans midfield goes missing too often and not just one or two players. When they Swans midfield goes missing they go missing on mass.

 

[Blackas87]

Need to take a leaf out of Hawthorns book and trade in players like Lake/Frawley. Not sure how we can do this with trade restrictions but we do have some midfield depth.

You have taken in players like Franklin and Tippett so you have been bringing in experienced talent.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Not sure but the list peaked in 2014, will be a interesting off-season.

 

[Maddhew]

You have taken in players like Franklin and Tippett so you have been bringing in experienced talent.

I am referring to key defenders

 

[Fluro Boots]

Time to do a Collingwood style reboot. Shed some dollars, bring in some good draft picks and hope like hell they nail them like the dogs a few years ago for a quick rebound.

 

[Theprofessional]

I don't think we're far off (call me crazy). We've got an aging backline but some of them have a bit left in them.

I think a large problem is we're playing a game style that is heavily outdated (3 years). Trying to play the slingshot everyone behind the ball/ run kick to space yet the opposition is sitting players loose and cleaning up easily. Needs to be changed drastically.

Got Mills/Dunkley to be recruited which is a couple more midfielders but both quality- we've got Bird who I imagine is trade bait- and Jetta talk to WA might mean he departs as well.

Will be interesting what we get this off season- but this year is cooked unless we drastically change the way which we play- not only the results.

Goodes/Shaw I'm convinced only went around due to trade restrictions.

 

[Blackas87]

I am referring to key defenders

Well you can't take everything, you guys took forwards, if you went after defenders you'll be saying you need key forwards.

 

[Hardhat11]

They will win last four games and finish third ...they play four winnable games coming home ......

Buddy needs to be fit to win it though ....I,wouldn't discount the swans yet.....There is Enough talent to win it