Where Do the Swans Go From Here?

[DemonZombie_001]

Firstly, I hate seeing any team not live up to it's potential, and I love watching Sydney, such a pressure team and so hard at the ball. But this year they just don't excite me, and they seem stuck in second gear.

My random thoughts...

The coaching group really need to commit to Nankervis, he has shown enough to gamble on him. Let him be the number 1 ruck.

Tippet is an out and out champion, but he is more of a band aid at the moment let him shine as a true full forward and take the forward ruck duties and be a distraction to the defense so that another big name forward can get more space. That being of course Franklin.

Sydney has an awesome midfield, but so do a lot of teams now, so you have to be consistent and Sydney are not. There is something totally wrong with the mix this year. And that is with players like Mitchell and Heeney coming in as well. There is heavy competition for midfield duties in this team, but that level of competition is not making players step up. Maybe a fresh coaching approach to the midfield for 2016 ? Maybe some players need to be dropped...

And on new players coming in, and I suppose with the current players. The biggest problem I think Sydney has is that the collective brains trust (on field) has slowly been diminishing from that club. For example players like O'keefe had football brains, or at least the bits I saw him play . They just don't seem to be replacing these types of players (or have them at a high enough standard).

 

[Kram]

Very serious, almost stalker-level, analysis of an opposition team!

Well I guess they could have just wrote

"Where are they at?"

 

[RUNVS]

They will win last four games and finish third ...they play four winnable games coming home ......

Buddy needs to be fit to win it though ....I,wouldn't discount the swans yet.....There is Enough talent to win it

But we have not really shown it all season. Our best game of the year was against Adelaide 2 weeks ago and that may have only happened because Adelaide were flat. Apply even the tiniest of pressure to the Swans midfield and they just give up.

 

[RUNVS]

A bit problem discussed on the Swans board as well is this

Blakey - Was with the Lions for a while during their 3 premierships but has been with the Swans for a decade
Dew - Only ever coached at the Swans
Playfair - Only ever coached at the Swans
Crouch - Only ever coached at the Swans
Mattner - Only ever coached at the Swans
Francou - Only ever coached at the Swans
Longmire - Only ever coached at the Swans

We have fresh ideas coming through, no one to shake things up.

 

[Hardhat11]

But we have not really shown it all season. Our best game of the year was against Adelaide 2 weeks ago and that may have only happened because Adelaide were flat. Apply even the tiniest of pressure to the Swans midfield and they just give up.

Come finals they will find something

They have been in cruise mode really ...yeah a few losses but I think you will win last four games

If you,lose to pies this week I'd be concerned however I think you'll smash them and grab third on the ladder

 

[RUNVS]

Come finals they will find something

They have been in cruise mode really ...yeah a few losses but I think you will win last four games

If you,lose to pies this week I'd be concerned however I think you'll smash them and grab third on the ladder

If Cloke and Reid both play and play in the forward line our defence is going to have some serious issues. I hope I am wrong though.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

they look to be in a bit of trouble most experts suggested break even point for buddy and tip rat is 2 premierships and it doesn't look like they will get close. there biggest mistake was getting rid of mummy and recruiting tippet on the coin he is on not worth it. buddy pays for him self in merchandise and so on. pyke isn't good enough imo,shaw will retire ted Richards is cooked who do they have that can come in and replace them

 

[RUNVS]

they look to be in a bit of trouble most experts suggested break even point for buddy and tip rat is 2 premierships and it doesn't look like they will get close. there biggest mistake was getting rid of mummy and recruiting tippet on the coin he is on not worth it. buddy pays for him self in merchandise and so on. pyke isn't good enough imo,shaw will retire ted Richards is cooked who do they have that can come in and replace them

Our KPD stocks are fine thank you very much. We have big named players like

Xavier Richards
Aliir Aliir
Lewis Melican
Abania Davis
Sean McLaren

all ready to go. With a combined total of 2 AFL games between all 5 of them there is no doubt they are all future stars.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Our KPD stocks are fine thank you very much. We have big named players like

Xavier Richards
Aliir Aliir
Lewis Melican
Abania Davis
Sean McLaren

all ready to go. With a combined total of 2 AFL games between all 5 of them there is no doubt they are all future stars.

lol. but seriously do any of them look good? heard of Richards and allir but the rest never heard of

 

[Unique Name]

Swans fans. Correct me if I'm wrong but.... you can trade above the $350,000 limit, but you lose the COLA straight away rather than gradually. Is that right?

 

[Hardhat11]

If Cloke and Reid both play and play in the forward line our defence is going to have some serious issues. I hope I am wrong though.

You're midfield will do enough damage to win v pies

I reckon GWS at spotless stadium will be a tougher game

 

[RUNVS]

Swans fans. Correct me if I'm wrong but.... you can trade above the $350,000 limit, but you lose the COLA straight away rather than gradually. Is that right?

Technically yes but it is actually not possible for us to go under the necessary salary cap figure in one hit. These things have to be gradual for them to work.

 

[Fluro Boots]

Swans fans. Correct me if I'm wrong but.... you can trade above the $350,000 limit, but you lose the COLA straight away rather than gradually. Is that right?

swans fans would know better but that my understanding. Goodes and shaw retirements and a Tippett trade if it could be done would go a long eay to getting back to the cap. add in the pick(s) for tippett it may be the best strategy

 

[Hardhat11]

Tippett would have to,agree to massive pay cut ..plus he's contracted

 

[Banyo Bloods]

Pretty darn good OP write up. Think you articulated your thoughts and questions well. Seem to know more than a casual observer of an opposition team would.

 

[WALDENPOND]

Back to South Melbourne. Where they belong.

 

[grimlock]

RE the rucks our ruck coach Taubert is very hot on Naismith, reckons he could be a very good player, but injuries have really hampered his short career thus far. If he was currently fit, I'd have no doubt he'd be in the side as the number 1 ruck,.

 

[Jtree]

Not for another 24-months

Trade ban has snapped the window shut.

Nice OP, but you missed the 2 biggest issues ATM

1. Coaching, and
2. On field leadership (no Kirk types left)

I've heard a number of Swans fans bemoaning the "coaching" as a key reason for this "decline" (more of a form slump, Swans still well capable of hoisting the cup this year). But I have a hard time understanding this...

Horse won 2012, took youse to a prelim 2013, Grand Finalists in 2014 & still genuine contenders in '15!

Compare this to Alistair Clarkson (peace be upon him!) - won 2008 & immediately dropped out in '09... And took another few years to just make a grannie, only to lose in 2012 to Longmire!!

is the coach really the issue?

I do agree with your point re: on-field leadership.

 

[master bate]

The academy will have gifted them 2 elite midfielders in 2 years. So even if Kennedy and Jack decline a little bit they'll still have Hannebery, Parker (who's just 22) and Mitchell so every chance of still having a top notch base for any midfield for a long time to come. There clearly lacking speed and class and if Jetta goes that will get worse. Jake Lloyd is a very good young player and should be included in their best 22. Pyke is an issue but he might not be the first ruck to have a crap year then bounce back the next.

I think the forward line won't have too many issues. Tippett should resigne on less money and then provide good value. Franklin will keep on keeping on. Heeney and Rohan are exciting and then it's not too hard to just find 1 or 2 others capable of adding to the mix. Ideally McGlynn turns back the clock next year but if he doesn't then they can draft and develop a nifty small.

The backline will be a big issue because a mature, stable and talented backline is usually the mainstay for any premiership team. Smith and Rampe have declined a bit but I think both are still more than capable in their roles as lockdown small and 3rd tall defender. How well the Swans can turn over the other 4 spots will determine a lot of their success over the next few year. I think they'll look to address their tall defender deficiency via trade once the ban finishes. Sam Reid is the other option for a quick fix and must be considered. Obviously if Alex Johnson came back that would help things. Elite uses from half back are hard to find as well. Malceski hasn't been replace and surely Shaw follows him shortly. Again, it's not an easy spot to fix and might require a trade next year.

I think they have enough talent in hard to find spots that they never have to drop far from premiership contention. But I certainly think they have to be aggressive in turning over spots in the best 22 whilst the gun players are still out in force, particularly in rebuilding the backline. If they don't make aggressive moves when allowed to in the trade market and if they don't keep adjusting their best 22 to be younger then the age profile could see a steep slip.

 

[QuietB]

Our KPD depth is such a worry that people on the Swans board have genuinely suggested we rookie Lachie Keeffe because then we will have a KPD at the start of the 2017 season.

Truth be told though the big worry is the midfield. It is not an old midfield as well which is the strange thing but if you look at Kennedy, Jack, McVeigh and Hannebery they are all worse players than they were in 2012. Why they are worse we have no idea but the Swans midfield goes missing too often and not just one or two players. When they Swans midfield goes missing they go missing on mass.

I'd disagree with that. The problem is the Swans are too reliant on their midfield and every time something goes wrong that midfield is expected to pick up more load. It is not sustainable and eventually they will break completely.

The issue is the bottom 6, not the top 6.

 

[bungwahl]

I've heard a number of Swans fans bemoaning the "coaching" as a key reason for this "decline" (more of a form slump, Swans still well capable of hoisting the cup this year). But I have a hard time understanding this...

Horse won 2012, took youse to a prelim 2013, Grand Finalists in 2014 & still genuine contenders in '15!

Compare this to Alistair Clarkson (peace be upon him!) - won 2008 & immediately dropped out in '09... And took another few years to just make a grannie, only to lose in 2012 to Longmire!!

is the coach really the issue?

I do agree with your point re: on-field leadership.

This year especially the concern has been around our style of play. When the Swans play attacking football they generally do quite well (e.g. first half vs Richmond) but then for some reason we start throwing spare men back to protect the lead and end up getting hammered (e.g. second half vs Richmond). One of the most common scenes at Swans games this season has been the ball being cleared out of defence, out to half back or wing, then realising there is no-one to kick to, stalling, going sideways, ultimately turning it over and conceding goals. The idea of the Swans being suited to defensive, contested footy is a myth. A bit like how some people still suggest rain suits the Swans style - we haven't won a game in the wet in years.

For the Swans to win games, we need to retain a forward structure. The Swans board has been banging on about the need for us to play attacking football all season, yet week after week we see the same boring game plan. If we'd tried having a shootout with Hawthorn or WC and been belted it would be better understood than getting belted trying to play the same old boring game plan which most teams have no trouble with any more.

In terms of the future, the trade ban is the crippler for the Swans. Especially at a time where we needed to reinforce KPD and ruck areas. The club's recent strategy has always been to trade rather than rely on the draft. There is no justification for the trade ban but it means the Swans have no option but to bring in kids or try to find mature bodies from lower leagues.

 

[nickrebellious]

My understanding is the Swans are allowed to trade this season but are limited to under the average wage players.

They should go all out. Keep Tippett at FF and Buddy at CHF and just build around them. Recruit an undervalued small forward, ruck and KPD. Recruiting these undervalued players is the real strength of Sydney. Just need to start playing players in positions instead of building a 22 player midfield.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Come finals they will find something

They have been in cruise mode really ...yeah a few losses but I think you will win last four games

If you,lose to pies this week I'd be concerned however I think you'll smash them and grab third on the ladder

Who finishes fourth?

 

[bungwahl]

Recruit an undervalued small forward, ruck and KPD. Recruiting these undervalued players is the real strength of Sydney. Just need to start playing players in positions instead of building a 22 player midfield.

Know any good options?

 

[swansfan51]

Know any good options?

Sure. Back when Kinnear Beatson said the 2012 draft had no depth in ruckmen, we could have drafted Jon Ceglar or Callum Sinclair (who went in the rookie draft). Either would start for us every week.

KPD? In 2013 we decided to draft Toby Nankervis and Aliir Aliir, where we could have drafted Alex Pearce, Jake Kolodjashnij or Tom Barrass.

I wanted us to draft Charlie Cameron last year, again a small forward who was available in the rookie draft. But there are small forward options every year, 80% are very cheap.

So my incredibly controversial idea is: good list management. Desperately trying to patch a gap now is far too late, and frankly pathetic. A list is built over a 10 year period.