Prediction Where will we finish in 2024

Giants standing after the Home and Away season

  • Minor Premiers (first time in our history!)

    Votes: 3 17.6%
  • Top 4

    Votes: 9 52.9%
  • 5-8

    Votes: 4 23.5%
  • Won’t make the finals

    Votes: 1 5.9%

  • Total voters
    17

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Another top 8 finish and a win or two in the finals to be heartbroken in the qualifier.

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Kingsley at least is very confident that we will be contending for the premiership.

This time last year at this same stage, our team was 6-8 and learning Kingsley’s system. Despite not playing well we will still be in the 8 by the end of this round, and already have two more wins than last year. Looking at the next 6 matches, only Carlton are above us on the ladder, so we could seriously boost our finals prospects- especially with Cogs, Perryman and Cummings available.

"But again, I'm really confident in the way that we played. I thought we fought hard, we've got some players to come back, who knows what's possible.

"We're certainly better placed this year than what we were last year and we were able to string a bit of a run together. I'm really confident in our people."


 
Here's the run home:

Adelaide (AO)
Carlton (GS)
Richmond (MCG)
Gold Coast (GS)
Melbourne (MCG)
Hawthorn (MANUKA)
Brisbane (GABBA)
Fremantle (GS)
Bulldogs (BALLARAT)

Assuming we win our four remaining home games, plus one more away game, we should play finals.

But looking at the draw, you wouldn't put your house on it. That loss to the Hawks in Tasmania might prove very costly.
 
Here's the run home:

Adelaide (AO)
Carlton (GS)
Richmond (MCG)
Gold Coast (GS)
Melbourne (MCG)
Hawthorn (MANUKA)
Brisbane (GABBA)
Fremantle (GS)
Bulldogs (BALLARAT)

Assuming we win our four remaining home games, plus one more away game, we should play finals.

But looking at the draw, you wouldn't put your house on it. That loss to the Hawks in Tasmania might prove very costly.
I'd like to think we'd beat Adelaide and Richmond away.
We'll very competitive in all the remaining games. I'd like to think we will win 5 (hopefully 6) and finish neatly in the finals
 
With Round 16 finishing today, and two thirds of the Home and Away season over, we will unfortunately be 10th. This is the first time this season that we will finish a Round out of the top 8 spots.

With a 8-7 record, and with 8 games left, obviously we will not be minor premiers - this inaugural achievement will have to wait for next year! 😛

Whilst we have not been playing well and are currently out of the top 8, the good news is that we are still only 1.5 wins away from third spot. The competition for the spots in the finals (other than the top two spots) are so close, that every game between the contending teams has a dramatic impact on the standings. If we had beaten Adelaide, we would have finished this round 5th.

Unfortunately only 1 (Richmond) of our remaining 8 games are against teams that are out of final contention. All the other teams will be very motivated when they play against us as they will all be pivotal “8 point games”.

Of the remaining games we probably need to win 5 of them to make the finals, and even 4 wins could be enough depending on %.

I see us getting to 5 wins - there are 3 games that we will go in as strong favourites, and if we win half of the “50-50” games we will make the finals. If we recapture our form of the latter half of the 2023 season, we could win more games and even get a top 4 double chance.
  • Games we will win: Richmond (MCG)
  • Games we “should” win: Gold Coast (GS); Hawthorn (Manuka)
  • 50-50 games: Carlton (GS); Melbourne (MCG); Fremantle (GS); Bulldogs (Mars)
  • Games we will probably lose: Brisbane (Gabba)

I still think we will make the finals - this time last year we had won one game less than now, and we finished 2023 with a 1 point loss in the Preliminary Final to the eventual Premiers.
 
Missing the 8 will give Kingsley a license to effect a radical rolling rebuild.

And, based on our form collapse, I expect we will now miss.

IMO we’ve broadly been in a Premiership window from 2016 to 2023, but it’s now over as our foundation superstars approach the tail end of their careers.

So many wasted opportunities from 2016 to 2022, yet IMO Kingsley got closer in 2023 to a Flag than we did in 2016 (coaching tactically inept) and 2019 (cooked with one our classic injury lists and fatigue on GF day).

I do often wonder what may have happened in the Covid season when we hammered the Cats in Round 1 just before the apocalypse began. In a normal world, that may have been our year.o

The positive news is that IMO we’ve seen enough from Kingsley in 2023 to believe he’s the right coach to lead a rolling rebuild.

Looking ahead, I think the real question how do we ever finish Top 4?

Until we sort our regular season win rate we’re always behind the 8 ball.

Cal’s post-match interview this week a very difficult listen as he’s his usual honest self. Telling that he was wheeled out to the media this week.

Challenging times ahead, but Kingsley may be able to push us through to a new bright future.



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The Ward, Cogs, Greene and maybe even Whitfield era looks to be coming to an end.
They helped to embed us in the competition and make us a fairly consistent top 8 team. Ultimately, they could never quite get to the pinnacle.

Importantly, Caruso looks to be doing a good job with some guys in the twos who could make good additions to a young team.
 
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The Ward, Cogs, Greene and maybe even Whitfield era looks to be coming to an end.
They helped to embed us in the competition and make us a fairly consistent top 8 team. Ultimately, they could never quite get to the pinnacle.

Importantly, Caruso looks to be doing a good job with some guys in the twos who could make good additions to a young team.
Caruso is amazing.
He is terrific with mid/late picks.
Every draft, excluding the covid impacted draft, you'd have to say he has come out with a really good call haul from the picks.
 
Still buzzing after our fantastic win against Carlton, and genuinely think we may have turned the corner. This stupendous win, in the context of our generally poor play of previous matches, and our self belief after our dismal first quarter, shows that we can repeat the form and momentum of the latter half of the 2023 season.

We are currently at 9 wins-7 losses, and looking at our next 4 matches, we are well placed to win 3 (or even all 4) of them
  • we should hopefully boost our % when we play Richmond next week. Richmond are currently in last place in the ladder
  • Gold Coast has never won away from home this season, and couldn’t even beat North yesterday. Sure Hardwick will do all he can to ensure that he gets an inaugural away win, but hard to see him doing that against us at Giants Stadium after seeing how we played against Carlton
  • we should also beat Hawthorn at our Manuka fortress, where we are yet to be defeated.

This should take us to 12 wins and I think we will also be favourites to beat Melbourne in 3 weeks at the MCG - although that will be the (relatively) the hardest of our next 4 games. I also think we will win at least 1 (and probably 2) of the last 3 games of the season - we play Fremantle at Giants Stadium, and Bulldogs may well be out of the finals race by the time we play them during the last Home and Away round of the season.

We should thus get at least 13 wins and make the finals. If things go our way we could even end up with 15 wins, which may get us 4th spot in this very competitive and even competition - or host an elimination final.

Very bullish about our prospects in 2024!
 
We still had one horrific quarter; but because it was Q1 we had time to overcome it. But as we have all year, we couldn't put them to the sword in Q4. Still danger signs that we're not fully functioning to a level able to grab a flag.
Playing against one of the best teams in the comp. It’s a case of getting the win not putting them to the sword cause they will have their moments and get on top for patches too. Q1 was obviously an issue but all sides apart from the swans are having issues with it
 
Word is Max Gawn is out for at least a couple of weeks, possibly more. We play Dee’s in 3 so good chance we will get them without max and Trac which would give us our best chance of knocking them off
 
Word is Max Gawn is out for at least a couple of weeks, possibly more. We play Dee’s in 3 so good chance we will get them without max and Trac which would give us our best chance of knocking them off
I don't like wishing injuries on anyone, but now he is already injured, hoping he misses 3 to make sure he is ok feels like it isn't poor form
 
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