Which club with a long premierhip drought be next to win a flag ?

[Ron The Bear]

I have heard a few times the Port were the youngest behind GC. Not saying your wrong but just saying these comments get thrown around a bit.

Youngest teams in each round, in ascending order:

 1 Ri,Me,NM
 2 GC,Ri,Me
 3 GC,Ri,Br
 4 GC,Ri,Me
 5 GC,Ri,Br
 6 GC,Ri,Me
 7 GC,Ri,Me
 8 GC,Ri,Me
 9 Ri,Me,Ad
10 GC,Me,Ri
11 Me,GC,NM
12 Me,GC,Ri
13 GC,Me,Ri
14 GC,Ri,Me
15 GC,Ri,Me
16 GC,Ri,Es
17 GC,Ri,Me
18 GC,Me,Es
19 GC,Me,Es
20 GC,Me,Ri
21 GC,Me,Ad
22 GC,Ri,Ad
23 GC,Me,Ad
24 GC,Me,Ri

H&A averages:

26.68 Ge
26.08 St
25.28 Sy
25.06 Co
24.98 Ha
24.96 WB
24.41 Ca
24.40 Fr
24.31 WC
24.27 NM
24.22 PA
24.09 Es
23.99 Br
23.98 Ad
23.26 Me
23.19 Ri
22.36 GC

 

[whelan=legend]

You miss the biut where I said the same coach. The Bailey sacking and Scully departure has set the Melbourne project back two years minimum and perhaps thrown it off course for a falg I reckon.

Typical pathetic SLF posting.
You realise Cotchin played his first few seasons under Terry Wallace?

I'm sure Chris Scott at Geelong threw their young players off course

Richmond are two years into building a good culture. Melbourne saw there's keel over and die last season and are starting from scratch.

North have managed to maintain continuity with the ways of a winning culture from the 90s. Not saying that means we WILL win flags, but it certainly helps.

LOL.

The same Richmond that just got ahead of Melbourne on the ladder by percentage this year because of some of their late season wins?
The same Richmond that lost to the Gold Coast this year?
The same Richmond that crumbled again this year when an actual top 8 spot was on the line?

Richmond are incredibly overrated. They will stagnate next year like Melbourne did this year. If you look back, Melbourne's 2010 and Richmond's 2011 are remarkably similar.

On the other hand, Melbourne's 2011 was very similar with Essendon's 2010. I'm expecting a similar year as to what they had this year.


Also it's about time you get out of this fanciful world where you think North Melbourne has a winning culture because you won a two premierships in the 1990's. It is not relevant. Your culture is a 'shinbone spirit' culture, which is a culture of 'we have mediocre players but we will try hard, and finish in the mid region of the ladder although realistically we had bottom 4 talent'.

 

[Shaxx Attaxx]

Ahh there we go. I dare say we will drop a hell of a lot with Chad, Brogan and hopefully Kane leaving. I do like the every round stat.

 

[LeverPuller]

I have heard a few times the Port were the youngest behind GC. Not saying your wrong but just saying these comments get thrown around a bit.

Fair enough - just to provide some perspective.

This is comparing 2011 lists by the way, and I know a couple of Port players have retired since. Rookies not included.

Port
200-250 games: 2 (including Chad)
150-200 games: 4 (including Brogan)
100-150 games: 7
50-100 games: 6
0-50 games: 23

Melbourne
200-250 games: 1
150-200 games: 1 (Aaron Davey has played 150)
100-150 games: 7
50-100 games: 10
0-50 games: 26

However, the difference between these two sides looking at the lists is the ages of the 0-50 gamers. Port's group have a lot of older players within this group that Melbourne just don't have. Players like Philips, Salter, Davenport and Stewart are all in that 23-24 bracket yet haven't played 50 games. Melbourne have only one player in this bracket - Michael Newton - and he's rookie-listed and probably going to get delisted.

Now, just to clarify, I'm going to add the Gold Coast in here.

Gold Coast
200-250 games: 2
150-200 games: 2 (Daniel Harris included)
100-150 games: 3
50-100 games: 2
0-50 games: 41

Gold Coast, however, do have the longer list, and will almost all hit the same marks at the same points.

They're not far apart. Melbourne have more in that 50-100 games bracket, but Gold Coast will hit that rapidly, and many of Melbourne's best hopes (Watts, Trengove, Gysberts, Grimes, McKenzie) are in that 0-50 bracket.

I'd say Port are behind as many of their best are in those older bracket and there aren't anywhere near as many games in that lower bracket. Furthermore, their lower end (with the exception of Butcher) aren't as highly rated.

Compare to Geelong:

Geelong

250-300 games: 2 (including Milburn)
200-250 games: 7 (including Ling, Mooney, Ottens)
150-200 games: 5
100-150 games: 4
50-100 games: 4
0-50 games: 25

What is going to make sides close is numbers of players in that 100-250 game bracket. You're looking for primarily those making up your premiership sides. Geelong 2011 are stacked in that 200-250 game bracket, yes, but they weren't in 2007 - where this side was more in that 100-200 game bracket.

 

[MR]

Youngest teams in each round, in ascending order:

 1 Ri,Me,NM
 2 GC,Ri,Me
 3 GC,Ri,Br
 4 GC,Ri,Me
 5 GC,Ri,Br
 6 GC,Ri,Me
 7 GC,Ri,Me
 8 GC,Ri,Me
 9 Ri,Me,Ad
10 GC,Me,Ri
11 Me,GC,NM
12 Me,GC,Ri
13 GC,Me,Ri
14 GC,Ri,Me
15 GC,Ri,Me
16 GC,Ri,Es
17 GC,Ri,Me
18 GC,Me,Es
19 GC,Me,Es
20 GC,Me,Ri
21 GC,Me,Ad
22 GC,Ri,Ad
23 GC,Me,Ad
24 GC,Me,Ri

H&A averages:

26.68 Ge
26.08 St
25.28 Sy
25.06 Co
24.98 Ha
24.96 WB
24.41 Ca
24.40 Fr
24.31 WC
24.27 NM
24.22 PA
24.09 Es
23.99 Br
23.98 Ad
23.26 Me
23.19 Ri
22.36 GC

These statistics show more than list averages. The young players who are playing now will be better off than the ones who are first played in a few years time.

Richmond and North IMO are the two big challengers. Both teams have gaps to fill but when they are filled, will be very challenging and strong teams. I do believe however, that Richmond's top end quality is the main differential and will be a large factor in the upcoming years.

 

[Papa G]

Adelaide

 

[Lord_Flashheart]

Fremantle

Would be good to see the tiges get one too for their long suffering (and loyal) supporters

 

[MaddAdam]

T
Also it's about time you get out of this fanciful world where you think North Melbourne has a winning culture because you won a two premierships in the 1990's. It is not relevant. Your culture is a 'shinbone spirit' culture, which is a culture of 'we have mediocre players but we will try hard, and finish in the mid region of the ladder although realistically we had bottom 4 talent'.

So having premiership players still in our side doesn't matter - as of course Melbourne supporters would know - and we have bottom 4 talent every year yet manage to beat Melbourne every time we play them?

Some Melbourne supporters have taken the Stalingrad like collapse of the "tank then bounce up to a flag' plan particularly hard. None harder than you.

You really need to be realistic about where your footy club is.

I'm realistic about mine.

North and Richmond have both gone past Melbourne. In Martin and Cotchin the Tiges have two absolute elite players. North has a few blokes who have the potential to get there in Ziebell and Goldstein and Swallow. Melbourne one in Trengove.

North and Richmond also have better developed and structured gameplans that the youngsters have been immersed in for two years. Melbourne are starting from scratch on that.

North and Richmond are poised to move into the bottom half of the eight next year in a steady improvement. Melbourne are back in rebuild mode.

North and Richmond have both seen gun young players sign up to stay away from the expansion teams, Melbourne lost a number 1 pick because of its poor culture.

North got belted by Collinwgood twice when they were red hot and got done by the eventual premiers at Kardinia by 11 goals.

Richmond fell asleep and lost to a very talented GC side that "clicked" for a half at a ground in Cairns.

Yet our teams remained in the finals hunt until the second last week of the finals

Melbourne copped the second worst belting in history and then fell apart, sacked their coach and proceeded to lose a few big ones on the trot in an embarrassing rout.

By every conceivable measure, Richmond and North moved ahead of Melbourne in development last year and are poised to extend that gap further next year as the groups move forward while Neeld and Craig start from scratch, minus Scully. North had four AA squad nominations, two of them younger players in Goldy and Swallow and in Wells, a bloke who will be there for a while yet.

People have had put up with the shrill little Melbourne types boasting about how all the great draft picks are going to lift to them immortality. Guess what? It didn't turn out that easy. Scully bailed on you.

Carlton players laughed at you for playing "bruise free footy". Geelong treated you with utter disdain. The situation got so bad that Jimmy Stynes had to beg Garry Lyon to come and do something, anything.

Take stock of where you are and take it down a few notches.

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

LOL.

The same Richmond that just got ahead of Melbourne on the ladder by percentage this year because of some of their late season wins?
The same Richmond that lost to the Gold Coast this year?
The same Richmond that crumbled again this year when an actual top 8 spot was on the line?

Richmond are incredibly overrated. They will stagnate next year like Melbourne did this year. If you look back, Melbourne's 2010 and Richmond's 2011 are remarkably similar.

On the other hand, Melbourne's 2011 was very similar with Essendon's 2010. I'm expecting a similar year as to what they had this year.


Also it's about time you get out of this fanciful world where you think North Melbourne has a winning culture because you won a two premierships in the 1990's. It is not relevant. Your culture is a 'shinbone spirit' culture, which is a culture of 'we have mediocre players but we will try hard, and finish in the mid region of the ladder although realistically we had bottom 4 talent'.

The same Richmond that began rebuilding two years after you, and has already equaled/surpassed you

Long term, I'd go with Richmond, Melbourne, North Melbourne three way tie.

 

[camiam]

i think this thread would be better answered after next year as these teams are starting to get into there plans. there will be a better indication of how the dees and tigers futures will look. richmond and melbourne started there journey together and have proven to be pretty equal. bulldogs have a few good young players coming up but they will eventually lack experience when there older heads retire. St Kilda still proved that they are a force after there shocking start to the season to still make the finals. with ross leaving i think the culture will start to change there (witch has to from past allegations and so on). freo have been unlucky with injury and they do have the list to get up there. But to my conclusion i believe the tigers and dees are on the right path, they maybe behind with there lists depth, but that will soon change as experience is gained. younger bodies will out run the olders, if freo, dogs and st kilda dont get it in the next 2-3 witch is hard to see then its straight to the back of the line. i just hope to see the tigers win a flag in my lifetime! im 23 but i have had too much false hope to see this happening. i think finals is the goal for melbourne and richmond atm

 

[camiam]

So having premiership players still in our side doesn't matter - as of course Melbourne supporters would know - and we have bottom 4 talent every year yet manage to beat Melbourne every time we play them?

Some Melbourne supporters have taken the Stalingrad like collapse of the "tank then bounce up to a flag' plan particularly hard. None harder than you.

You really need to be realistic about where your footy club is.

I'm realistic about mine.

North and Richmond have both gone past Melbourne. In Martin and Cotchin the Tiges have two absolute elite players. North has a few blokes who have the potential to get there in Ziebell and Goldstein and Swallow. Melbourne one in Trengove.

North and Richmond also have better developed and structured gameplans that the youngsters have been immersed in for two years. Melbourne are starting from scratch on that.

North and Richmond are poised to move into the bottom half of the eight next year in a steady improvement. Melbourne are back in rebuild mode.

North and Richmond have both seen gun young players sign up to stay away from the expansion teams, Melbourne lost a number 1 pick because of its poor culture.

North got belted by Collinwgood twice when they were red hot and got done by the eventual premiers at Kardinia by 11 goals.

Richmond fell asleep and lost to a very talented GC side that "clicked" for a half at a ground in Cairns.

Yet our teams remained in the finals hunt until the second last week of the finals

Melbourne copped the second worst belting in history and then fell apart, sacked their coach and proceeded to lose a few big ones on the trot in an embarrassing rout.

By every conceivable measure, Richmond and North moved ahead of Melbourne in development last year and are poised to extend that gap further next year as the groups move forward while Neeld and Craig start from scratch, minus Scully. North had four AA squad nominations, two of them younger players in Goldy and Swallow and in Wells, a bloke who will be there for a while yet.

People have had put up with the shrill little Melbourne types boasting about how all the great draft picks are going to lift to them immortality. Guess what? It didn't turn out that easy. Scully bailed on you.

Carlton players laughed at you for playing "bruise free footy". Geelong treated you with utter disdain. The situation got so bad that Jimmy Stynes had to beg Garry Lyon to come and do something, anything.

Take stock of where you are and take it down a few notches.

enjoyed reading that mate very true facts

 

[grogan]

Freo first followed by Richmond.

 

[Samsara]

Can this thread not turn into a North v Rich v Demon debate, there are other teams more than capable of winning a flag in the coming years that have had a "drought".

We will know more about Melbourne in 2012-2013 with a totally new coaching team.
Richmond have some great talent and I expect them push into the 8 this year.
North have a great spread of talent, and tend 'have a crack' always. They are the best of these three teams at moment and will surely make top 8 next year.

I reckon Carlton have the quality to win a flag in next few years. Fremantle, with a better run of injuries, will also be well placed to contest. That said, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong, and West Coast will not be going anywhere fast.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

So having premiership players still in our side doesn't matter - as of course Melbourne supporters would know - and we have bottom 4 talent every year yet manage to beat Melbourne every time we play them?

Some Melbourne supporters have taken the Stalingrad like collapse of the "tank then bounce up to a flag' plan particularly hard. None harder than you.

You really need to be realistic about where your footy club is.

I'm realistic about mine.

North and Richmond have both gone past Melbourne. In Martin and Cotchin the Tiges have two absolute elite players. North has a few blokes who have the potential to get there in Ziebell and Goldstein and Swallow. Melbourne one in Trengove.

North and Richmond also have better developed and structured gameplans that the youngsters have been immersed in for two years. Melbourne are starting from scratch on that.

North and Richmond are poised to move into the bottom half of the eight next year in a steady improvement. Melbourne are back in rebuild mode.

North and Richmond have both seen gun young players sign up to stay away from the expansion teams, Melbourne lost a number 1 pick because of its poor culture.

North got belted by Collinwgood twice when they were red hot and got done by the eventual premiers at Kardinia by 11 goals.

Richmond fell asleep and lost to a very talented GC side that "clicked" for a half at a ground in Cairns.

Yet our teams remained in the finals hunt until the second last week of the finals

Melbourne copped the second worst belting in history and then fell apart, sacked their coach and proceeded to lose a few big ones on the trot in an embarrassing rout.

By every conceivable measure, Richmond and North moved ahead of Melbourne in development last year and are poised to extend that gap further next year as the groups move forward while Neeld and Craig start from scratch, minus Scully. North had four AA squad nominations, two of them younger players in Goldy and Swallow and in Wells, a bloke who will be there for a while yet.

People have had put up with the shrill little Melbourne types boasting about how all the great draft picks are going to lift to them immortality. Guess what? It didn't turn out that easy. Scully bailed on you.

Carlton players laughed at you for playing "bruise free footy". Geelong treated you with utter disdain. The situation got so bad that Jimmy Stynes had to beg Garry Lyon to come and do something, anything.

Take stock of where you are and take it down a few notches.

I'll be surprised if Melbourne isn't above Richmond next year (but that's mainly due to list progress, not overall talent) and at least equal with your mob (and no, despite what Richmond fans say a rebuild doesn't start when you get a new coach... Richmond have been rebuilding since 2004)

You've also taken the liberty to undersell Melbourne, to the extreme, at every possible opportunity... must be the combative journalistic side of you coming to the fore, no?

For example you state Ziebell, Goldstein and Swallow could be elite players.

I agree with that.

Firstly you then undersell Richmond by not including Reiwoldt in their potential elite, then you greatly undersell Melbourne by not including a 23 year old AA defender in that bracket in James Frawley... and even more so by not including our most promising talent in Watts.

I fully understand Melbourne's situation, I fully understand we are in an excellent position to move forward (not starting from 'scratch') and a few dozen knee jerk reactions from an enraged opposition fan doesn't change my opinion of that.



I'm not saying we're going to create a dynasty or what-not, even excellent teams struggle to do that.

I'm confident we will have a sustained period of competitiveness.

 

[seysearles]

Youngest teams in each round, in ascending order:

 1 Ri,Me,NM
 2 GC,Ri,Me
 3 GC,Ri,Br
 4 GC,Ri,Me
 5 GC,Ri,Br
 6 GC,Ri,Me
 7 GC,Ri,Me
 8 GC,Ri,Me
 9 Ri,Me,Ad
10 GC,Me,Ri
11 Me,GC,NM
12 Me,GC,Ri
13 GC,Me,Ri
14 GC,Ri,Me
15 GC,Ri,Me
16 GC,Ri,Es
17 GC,Ri,Me
18 GC,Me,Es
19 GC,Me,Es
20 GC,Me,Ri
21 GC,Me,Ad
22 GC,Ri,Ad
23 GC,Me,Ad
24 GC,Me,Ri

H&A averages:

26.68 Ge
26.08 St
25.28 Sy
25.06 Co
24.98 Ha
24.96 WB
24.41 Ca
24.40 Fr
24.31 WC
24.27 NM
24.22 PA
24.09 Es
23.99 Br
23.98 Ad
23.26 Me
23.19 Ri
22.36 GC

What site do you get these stats from?

 

[whelan=legend]

Firstly, typical SLF rant. Knee jerk reactions and heavy bias with only telling half of the story.

Facts: Richmond and Melbourne had the same amount of wins, Richmond finished above Melbourne by a very small amount of %. Richmond were deemed to have a great year, Melbourne a terrible one. Melbourne beat Richmond when it mattered (top 8 spot on the line).

Yes, we imploded heavily towards the end of the season. Poor game plan which crumbled against the better sides. In 2010 in 2 games against the premiers we drew and had a 1 point loss. We didn't have a loss over 10 goals all season. Who knows what game plain Bailey implemented throughout the pre season last year, but it was pathetic and left us a long way behind the 8 ball. The talent is there, and with this coaching staff at the helm I am confident we will be much better than last year.

I also will not be surprised to see Richmond completely stagnate next year. It's part of development when you're not carried by senior players.

North Melbourne's culture is not what you think it is. You spin so much lies in your own mind that I actually think you believe what you are saying.

The same Richmond that began rebuilding two years after you, and has already equaled/surpassed you

Long term, I'd go with Richmond, Melbourne, North Melbourne three way tie.

LOL. You began rebuilding a very long time ago, at least from the 2005 draft. Just because your first rebuild(s) failed doesn't mean you can just pick another random year

 

[MaddAdam]

North Melbourne's culture is not what you think it is. You spin so much lies in your own mind that I actually think you believe what you are saying.

Yet your side hasn't beaten mine in the last ten times we've played, we've won four flags since your last, we've finished above you the last two/three (four?) years, we can keep our youngsters when yours leave and even in your sig you say you admire our culture.

Look at how our young players like Goldstein and Swallow have steadily improved to get AA noms. Look at how the likes of Swallowe and Ziebell are keen to stay at North, not leave in disgust at an unprofessional culture like Scully.

I know what our culture is and I know what Scott is trying to achieve. And how. He's very open about it.

Unlike the dysfunctional and toxic Melbourne "football" department.

 

[Skypra]

Firstly, typical SLF rant. Knee jerk reactions and heavy bias with only telling half of the story.

Facts: Richmond and Melbourne had the same amount of wins, Richmond finished above Melbourne by a very small amount of %. Richmond were deemed to have a great year, Melbourne a terrible one. Melbourne beat Richmond when it mattered (top 8 spot on the line).

Yes, we imploded heavily towards the end of the season. Poor game plan which crumbled against the better sides. In 2010 in 2 games against the premiers we drew and had a 1 point loss. We didn't have a loss over 10 goals all season. Who knows what game plain Bailey implemented throughout the pre season last year, but it was pathetic and left us a long way behind the 8 ball. The talent is there, and with this coaching staff at the helm I am confident we will be much better than last year.

I also will not be surprised to see Richmond completely stagnate next year. It's part of development when you're not carried by senior players.

North Melbourne's culture is not what you think it is. You spin so much lies in your own mind that I actually think you believe what you are saying.



LOL. You began rebuilding a very long time ago, at least from the 2005 draft. Just because your first rebuild(s) failed doesn't mean you can just pick another random year

With the easy draw Melbourne got they were actually tipped to easily make the 8.

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

It's funny, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast and Funaki supporters are all pointing the finger at each other claiming they will be the new superpower of the competition.

Whilst Melbourne sit alone in the corner of the room, yelling out to all the big kids for attention.

 

[whelan=legend]

Yet your side hasn't beaten mine in the last ten times we've played, we've won four flags since your last, we've finished above you the last two years, we can keep our youngsters when yours leave and even in your sig you say you admire our culture.

Yes, your playing group has the wood over ours.

No, your culture is not one of success, no matter what way you try and spin it. You have made 4 finals series in the last 11 seasons. 99% of your playing group have not tasted success. When drafted to North, you know you're going to an 'aussie battler' club that will fight against 'the big boys' and finish mid table.

Yes, my sig is a lost bet (clearly).

I know what our culture is and I know what Scott is trying to achieve. And how.

Seems like you don't. Scott can be trying to change your culture (he sure hasn't yet), just like Neeld ours etc.

Unlike the dysfunctional and toxic Melbourne "football" department.

Yes, our football department last year did not work. At the moment, it is completely different. I struggle to see how it is dysfunctional or toxic, in fact it looks like it is becoming one of the best in the competition.

 

[MaddAdam]

With the easy draw Melbourne got they were actually tipped to easily make the 8.

Indeed, their season was an abject failurer at every level and for their shrill fans to be having a go at anyone is just ridculous.

 

[whelan=legend]

With the easy draw Melbourne got they were actually tipped to easily make the 8.

Yes, and part of that easy draw was the fact that we got to play the Eagles twice.

Things change from when the draw is released and it turned out that we played the top 8 teams as much as anyone else in the competition, even playing three top 4 teams twice.

It funnily enough ended up being a difficult draw.

Indeed, their season was an abject failurer at every level and for their shrill fans to be having a go at anyone is just ridculous.

Doesn't surprise me in the slightest the SLF can't comprehend what is written above. A delusional man.

 

[Liam Boy]

I put North ahead of the Tiges and everyone else because we already have one of the decisive things for a flag tilt: a genuine top notch ruck where the others don't.

That may be true as far as Angus Graham is concerned, but Mumford, Naitanui and Leuenberger can rightfully be called top-notch. Goldstein is better, but even then.

 

[MaddAdam]

Yes, your playing group has the wood over ours.

Yes. Winning.

No, your culture is not one of success, no matter what way you try and spin it. You have made 4 finals series in the last 11 seasons.

After dominating a decade. You have to rebuild and refresh after a period of success with the draft etc. That is success.

99% of your playing group have not tasted success.

We have a premiership player on our list. Brad Scott himself has said that when he came to North, he was amazed at how much work Boomer did on the track and with younger players. All the younger players speak about the importance of the older blokes, of that contuinty, of being part of the culture. A culture that knows success and knows the work required to taste it and strives for it.

And when our older players retire, we try and do it gracefully, a la Rawlings this year, Harding year before. Not chuck them out to the knackers yard like Melbourne did with Juniour McDonald and Roberston, with all the accompanying disruption that caused.

When drafted to North, you know you're going to an 'aussie battler' club that will fight against 'the big boys' and finish mid table.

And what in God's name happens to you when you're drafted to Melbourne?

When you come to North, you know you are coming to a club that has tasted the ultimate success in the same football generation as you. Kieran Harper and Boomer Harvey - continuity, the link, the culture.

Yes, our football department last year did not work. At the moment, it is completely different. I struggle to see how it is dysfunctional or toxic, in fact it looks like it is becoming one of the best in the competition.

Been hearing that from you for ages.

Morton was better than Ziebell remember?

LOL.

 

[mrpez]

Indeed, their season was an abject failurer at every level and for their shrill fans to be having a go at anyone is just ridculous.

Our season was a failure in many ways, no doubt, but i'm a little surprised at all the self-congratulations by Richmond and North supporters in this thread. All three teams finished outside the eight and all need to show a hell of a lot more to be able to compete with the big boys of the comp.