Which club with a long premierhip drought be next to win a flag ?

[Barry_Badrinath]

I wouldn't say that will always be the case though.

I think three of their top-end players are 'peaking'

Reiwoldt and Deledio, obviously, and Cotchin is beginning to peak.

Watts, Grimes, Gysberts, Trengove and Sylvia haven't begun peaking yet (well, Sylvia may have... but I really hope he can become the player should be)

Hmmmm....

 

[pazza]

St. Kilda and Footscray have had their chances in recent times.

So I'm going Richmond slightly ahead of Fremantle and then Melbourne.

 

[vast]

Its hard to say they will win a flag, but I will say freo will be the first to be a position to win one before those other clubs. Richmond and Melbourne will be next in line.

 

[gs17]

Dogs and Saints have shown how hard it is to win one, especially the Dogs in 09 and the Saints in 09 and 10. Predicting which one of these teams will break the drought is like trying to hit a nipple on Keira Knightley with a dart from twenty metres away. I think Freo are the best placed to challenge next with Richmond a couple of years away, but for any of these sides to win a flag a lot will have to go right.

 

[MR]

Richmond's team looks very strong and promising on paper.

B Grimes Rance Newman
HB Batchelor Post Houli
C: Deledio Cotchin Foley
HF Nahas Vickery Morton
F King Riewoldt Griffiths
R Graham Martin Tuck
I/C: Edwards Grigg Dea
Sub: Webberley

There are certainly some deficiencies there, we have a gap in the ruck and need certain players to start performing. Bolded are our players who would probably be in our team come 3-5 years..

I still have my doubts about Post, if Moore was fit and firing it would be the easy swap, but each day his career looks more likely to end.

 

[LeverPuller]

The issue that I have with the Tigers, relative to Melbourne, is the lack of depth across certain areas.
Richmond's forward line is really strong.
Richmond's leaders in their midfield (including Deledio in this) are quite good as well.

However, this falls down with their rucks and their backline. If they get Maric they'll be better, but that's still only 1 ruckman where you want 2-3 at least to be flag challenging. Their backline, too, is still a shambles.

By comparison, Melbourne's backline is one of the better ones running around in my opinion. Frawley, Garland and Rivers do make a pretty strong combination, with Tapscott, Nicholson etc. running around on the smalls. Melbourne's ruck stocks are fantastic - Jamar as the lead, Stef Martin coming up big now, Jake Spencer as a backup with big Max Gawn in training.

Melbourne's midfield, on the other hand, is still very young. Apart from Moloney, you have Jordie McKenzie (21), Jordan Gysberts (20) and Jack Trengove (20). Further to this you have Rohan Bail (23 but been injured lots) and Nathan Jones (23). These guys are young. Jones seems like he's been around forever, but he only played his 100th this season.

The issue is still Melbourne's forward line. We need the gorilla.

I think Melbourne will be challenging from 2015 onwards. Whether Richmond do depends on their trading and drafting both this year and next.

 

[MaddAdam]

Teams with windows:

Next two or three years: Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton, Collingwood, Freo (unlikely, sadly)

Three to five years: (in order of likelihood of winning flag/s) North, Richmond, West Coast, Brisbane, Melbourne, Essendon, Sydney

Five years and counting: GC, GWS, Port, Adelaide,

Seven years: Dogs, Saints

We've seen with Geelong and Collingwood what is key to winning a flag is having a big population bulge of talented players who come through at the same time under the same coach.

Come 2014 the Cotchin/Martin crew will be entering peak age/form as will the Ziebell/Bastinac lot.

I put North ahead of the Tiges and everyone else because we already have one of the decisive things for a flag tilt: a genuine top notch ruck where the others don't.

But by the terms of reference of the thread, it is the Tiges for mine.

 

[teknodeejay]

Can you throw GWS or Gold Coast in to this mix? I mean those guys haven't won anything, ever.

I think Gold Coast will win a flag before any of those who have waited 20 years or longer.

 

[LeverPuller]

Can you throw GWS or Gold Coast in to this mix? I mean those guys haven't won anything, ever.

I think Gold Coast will win a flag before any of those who have waited 20 years or longer.

Current talent including the draft suggests GC are in front of GWS already.

Mostly because of Zac Smith, but whatever.

 

[mjr_42]

Teams with windows:

We've seen with Geelong and Collingwood what is key to winning a flag is having a big population bulge of talented players who come through at the same time under the same coach.

Come 2014 the Cotchin/Martin crew will be entering peak age/form as will the Ziebell/Bastinac lot.

Yet you conveniently ignore the Trengove/Watts lot.

I put North ahead of the Tiges and everyone else because we already have one of the decisive things for a flag tilt: a genuine top notch ruck where the others don't.

But you ignore Naitanui and Leuenberger at West Coast and Brisbane, respectively.

But by the terms of reference of the thread, it is the Tiges for mine.

By the terms of reference of your post, I think we can safely ignore anything contained in it.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

If you combine Richmond's best 11 and Melbourne's best 11 you'd come close to a team that could challenge the current Geelong - both clubs have a lot of hard work to do.

This. Melbourne still has holes which need to be plugged. We need a crumbing forward, a power forward (hopefully Watts and/or Cook can fill this role), another big defender (McDonald?) and another couple of midfielders to swing through the middle (Viney in 2013 helps). We need to get rid of plodders like Bate, Macdonald, Dunn, Maric, Warnock & I wouldn't be holding my breath for Wonnaeamirri, Morton, Bennell, Jetta, Spencer or Martin either. Martin had a good year this year compared to his previous output but I can't see him improving beyond this. I would shop him around while his value is relatively high and see what other clubs in need of a ruckman might give for him.

 

[MaddAdam]

Yet you conveniently ignore the Trengove/Watts lot.

You miss the biut where I said the same coach. The Bailey sacking and Scully departure has set the Melbourne project back two years minimum and perhaps thrown it off course for a falg I reckon.

But you ignore Naitanui and Leuenberger at West Coast and Brisbane, respectively.

Neither of these are "drought" teams. Anyway, I put Richmond and North first because I believe we have far better young large midfield groups coming through than those two.

By the terms of reference of your post, I think we can safely ignore anything contained in it.

Don't crack the sads because I'm not drinking the Melbourne kool aid.

Reality is last season was disastrous for you and it will take Neeld and Craig a minimum of one season to arrest the decline before you can seriously improve again.

At the same time, North and Richmond are hitting the time when players and teams improve a great deal - the 50/80 game period for key youngsters.

North and Richmond went past you last season. By some distance too.

 

[Silent Alarm]

There needs to be a major cultural rehaul with Richmond and Melbourne.

And despite Richmond faring worse in making the finals, I see them as having a much better culture.

I used to absolutely love the Dees, but I just find myself disappointed in the players. Watts has got to be the softest footballer since Tom Hawkins (prior to his reinvention a few days ago...). The guy exemplifies how I feel about their youngsters: Obviously some great potential, top footballing brain, and tight skills, but overly pampered and very "special". There's a real culture with that. I cannot see them winning a Premiership because of it. They've got this mentality of fragility.

And of course you can't compare the 2011 team and their results to a 2014 team and their potential results. But, how can a team who suffered gigantic and embarrassing losers be tough enough for a Premiership tilt? Could they handle it if Jack Trengove went out for six weeks in Round 16?

That mental toughness, or any toughness, isn't easy to instill into someone. That's why I am in an absolute minority and believe Stephen Hill should be thrown in for a trad for Jaeger O'Meara. I don't he's got the mental agility to beat a tag, I don't think he'll ever have enough confidence to use his right hoof, and I don't think he'll ever be an in and under player.

Melbourne Demons have a list much like that. They do have the players who chuck themselves under the ball, but do they have the mind frame to rock up at Geelong (or against, say, Carlton or Collingwood) and think they can genuinely beat them? I don't think so.

I think Richmond have a very close knit bunch of footballers. There's certainly an aura about the guys that they know they have to change the club. Richmond seriously have to make a finals series within the next couple of years. I think they understand they are good enough and have enough potential. And as much as I hate Richmond, I can see them doing well.

I hope it's North though. I absolutely love their ethos. Scott is a fantastic man manager, and he has the ability to transform some 6/10 players into 7/10 players - and if you make that small change to every player, you can be in with a serious tilt.

I fear for Freo though. We're in an awkward phase. I don't think we're good enough to challenge Carlton or Collingwood or Hawthorn in the next two to three years. But perhaps Lyon can use his Saints experience to make us better in Melbourne - and that would be hugely beneficial, obviously. I think if we were in the same 'phase' as Richmond, North, Melbourne, West Coast, and Essendon, well, we would definitely win a Flag.

 

[The King!]

young kids can go either way so it doesnt tell you who is closer. Fremantle is probably most likely because their fit side is a top 4 contender of sorts currently.

Despite the promising lists Melbourne and Richmond arent there yet and if you dont get top 4 you wont win the flag more than likely.

If i could choose and obviously it means the swans didnt win, id go Richmond, Melbourne at least played in a grand final recently and tigers fans are there week in week out and their song would be awesome to hear after a drought on grand final day.

 

[MaddAdam]

There needs to be a major cultural rehaul with Richmond and Melbourne.

And despite Richmond faring worse in making the finals, I see them as having a much better culture.

Richmond are two years into building a good culture. Melbourne saw there's keel over and die last season and are starting from scratch.

North have managed to maintain continuity with the ways of a winning culture from the 90s. Not saying that means we WILL win flags, but it certainly helps.

 

[Samsara]

Potential talent is thrown around here a lot, but until the potential is actually realised, it is anybodies guess. It is pretty clear that a lot of hard work goes into winning a premiership, and not just from the playing group.

I would love to see Melbourne win a flag one day, but I would also be happy to see one of the following clubs snatch one soon: Richmond, Bulldogs, St Kilda, and even North (not given enough credit as a club).

 

[Silent Alarm]

I think North also have a culture where it is backs against the wall. Scott emphasises that as well. Everyone who gets drafted to North realise they are the battlers of the league. You have to give absolutely everything. I definitely admire that, and I wish my club had something like that.

 

[LeverPuller]

I used to absolutely love the Dees, but I just find myself disappointed in the players. Watts has got to be the softest footballer since Tom Hawkins (prior to his reinvention a few days ago...). The guy exemplifies how I feel about their youngsters: Obviously some great potential, top footballing brain, and tight skills, but overly pampered and very "special". There's a real culture with that. I cannot see them winning a Premiership because of it. They've got this mentality of fragility.

Jack Watts is the most targeted player in the AFL. No other player cops the scorn he does. Everyone knew that he would be a 2-3 year project player, as it would take time to put weight on his frame. He had a great stint in the middle of this year and is genuinely becoming dangerous. Yet he's still labelled as soft because of his rubbish perfomances in 2009 - where he was still at school and only training a couple of days a week. We do have some soft players (Morton, Green) but to judge a 20 year old who has only had 2 real seasons on that basis is pretty harsh.

And of course you can't compare the 2011 team and their results to a 2014 team and their potential results. But, how can a team who suffered gigantic and embarrassing losers be tough enough for a Premiership tilt? Could they handle it if Jack Trengove went out for six weeks in Round 16?

The Gold Coast suffered giant and embarrassing losses for much of this season, yet are anyone questioning their credentials? Nope. Why are Melbourne copping it? The list is at the same point, age-wise, as GC.

Right now we're ahead of the Gold Coast. Absolutely. But the GC will come good pretty quickly. It's a question of whether we will as well.

Melbourne Demons have a list much like that. They do have the players who chuck themselves under the ball, but do they have the mind frame to rock up at Geelong (or against, say, Carlton or Collingwood) and think they can genuinely beat them? I don't think so.

We lost one, his name was Tom $cully. We do have some outside runners, and are still lacking an in-and-under mid - but that's solved next season with Jack Viney.

 

[meani]

I reckon we still have the list to challenge for a flag in the next year or two before we drop off. We have a younger list than Geelong and they just won a flag so I don't see why we should suddenly drop down to the bottom six.

please dont go making any comparisons between stkildas and geelongs playing list. ANY

 

[Jordie_tackles]

You miss the biut where I said the same coach. The Bailey sacking and Scully departure has set the Melbourne project back two years minimum and perhaps thrown it off course for a falg I reckon.




Neither of these are "drought" teams. Anyway, I put Richmond and North first because I believe we have far better young large midfield groups coming through than those two.


Don't crack the sads because I'm not drinking the Melbourne kool aid.

Reality is last season was disastrous for you and it will take Neeld and Craig a minimum of one season to arrest the decline before you can seriously improve again.

At the same time, North and Richmond are hitting the time when players and teams improve a great deal - the 50/80 game period for key youngsters.

North and Richmond went past you last season. By some distance too.

I would disagree with the first point, you really think that Bailey had us on any sort of fast track towards a flag??? im doubting this, he is why we were on the decline.

So i would argue that Neeld can hopefully only improve this situation, even if it does take some time next season, but the pre-season is long. i wont be writing off 2012 before it has begun

 

[MaddAdam]

I think North also have a culture where it is backs against the wall. Scott emphasises that as well. Everyone who gets drafted to North realise they are the battlers of the league. You have to give absolutely everything. I definitely admire that, and I wish my club had something like that.

Actually Scott is doing the opposite. That's the element of the Shinboner Spirit he wants to eliminate.

He wants the players to believe they have the facilities and support - which they do - to be truly elite and to play at that level.

 

[Shaxx Attaxx]

Not enough top shelf talent? According to whom?

We were the youngest side behind GC in '11, remember that. Richmonds 2011 was the same as our 2010 for me

I have heard a few times the Port were the youngest behind GC. Not saying your wrong but just saying these comments get thrown around a bit.

 

[Dazb86]

This may sound stupid but I get the feeling Melbourne players just expect to become a great team. All because of the high draft picks and youth around the place. They don't seem like a team willing to put in 100% every game and sort of have the mentality that it'll happen they just have to wait for it to click.

Of the up and coming teams I'd have North ahead of everyone else. Purely for their spread of talent. It might not be as high end as the other young sides but their list seems to bat deeper. Brad Scott has also got them playing good contested footy and they seem like a big bodied side of the future.

Fremantle have a good chance in the next couple of years while their senior guys are still playing good footy.

Richmond at the moment are all cream and no cake. Need to get in some average players to cull the spuds in their current line-up. Might have to trade with other clubs or keep lucky dipping from the draft. At the moment they should look at the way carlton have gone about filling holes with players from the VFL.

As for my own side. We are a long way off yet and the cooney injury is a massive blow. I hope we are in a position to challenge while our 25 year olds are still around.

 

[mjr_42]

You miss the biut where I said the same coach. The Bailey sacking and Scully departure has set the Melbourne project back two years minimum and perhaps thrown it off course for a falg I reckon.




Neither of these are "drought" teams. Anyway, I put Richmond and North first because I believe we have far better young large midfield groups coming through than those two.




Don't crack the sads because I'm not drinking the Melbourne kool aid.

Reality is last season was disastrous for you and it will take Neeld and Craig a minimum of one season to arrest the decline before you can seriously improve again.

At the same time, North and Richmond are hitting the time when players and teams improve a great deal - the 50/80 game period for key youngsters.

North and Richmond went past you last season. By some distance too.

I'm not "cracking the sads" because you don't think Melbourne will win a flag in the next three years. That's your opinion and it's no more or less valid than mine. There's no doubt 2011 was a mess and I agree, it set us back. I don't agree that a flag is now impossible because we had to change coaches. Look at St Kilda under Thomas and then Lyon. There was a year of adjustment and then the benefits were (almost) realised.

If you think the change of coach is a deal-breaker, fine. But it is a fact that Melbourne has a group of young, talented players coming through together at the same time. It's as sizeable as Richmond's, bigger than North's and shouldn't be ignored. Time will tell if the 2011 debacle costs us dearly.

I was merely pointing out what I see to be flaws in your argument. To suggest that neither Naitanui or Leuenberger are star ruckmen in waiting is ridiculous.

And unlike some Melbourne posters on BF, I do my best to be objective. You'd do well to try it some time.

 

[teknodeejay]

I am an ardent Richmond basher. I give it to my Tiger supporting friends all the time. They know I have no love for their club. But we have a good banter about it.

So it detests me a little to admit I believe Richmond to play finals next year, and they can add quality players to their current nucleus, they can go all the way well before Melbourne. Their three most important players are going to be Cotchin, Martin and that giant Tyrone who I think is going to be something spectacular.

I see too many problems with the Demons, their coaching staff are untried, and Scully is a big blow no matter how you look at it.

The words "Yellow and Black" are going to be pretty feral in coming years!!!