Which game would have the biggest impact or butterfly effect on AFL history if the result was changed?

[BigVic]

1961 GF.

Had the Dogs gone on to win (8 points in front at half time), Hawthorn is still without a flag.

How long would it have taken them to win one? Next year, or ages away?

Would they have had the success they do or would there have been a drop off?

Would John Kennedy have kept the coaching position for as long as he did?

Would the Dogs have had more success in the 60s and into the future?

Significant sliding doors game, this one.

1971 GF

Both Hawthorn and St Kilda were on one flag each entering that game.

Saints were up by 20 at 3QT

Had the Saints held on and won, they'd be on 2 premierships and Hawthorn stuck on the one premiership.

St Kilda are yet to win another premiership and played in 4 grand finals since, drawing one and losing 3 with Hawthorn winning 11 flags since.

How would St Kilda and Hawthorn went after that game?

 

[JPetro83]

What if Fitzroy won the 1986 Prelim Final and then went on the next week to beat Carlton at jagged a premiership, would they have survived and still been around today in the AFL?

 

[Roysforever]

What if Fitzroy won the 1986 Prelim Final and then went on the next week to beat Carlton at jagged a premiership, would they have survived and still been around today in the AFL?

1983 is the year Fitzroy supporters moreso look back as the premiership opportunity that got away. Who knows the ripple effect if ultimate success came that year.

After some unlucky moments in prior final series during 1986 a slightly weaker Roys outfit had more fortune to make it through to the Preliminary final. Though as the side were the walking wounded by the end of the Prelim it was probably better their campaign ended that day. Otherwise Carlton would have won by the grand final by 20 goals.

 

[JackFlash]

Impossible to say, but i'll pick the one that sticks in my craw to this day and that's the 2008 Grand Final loss to Hawthorn. If Geelong had won like they should've, would they have had the same desire in 2009 against St.Kilda? The Saints were dealt a cruel blow the following year as well. Would Ablett Jr have still left to go the Gold Coast? The 2010 Ablett Jr possible move was certainly distracting? Or would Geelong have won 4 in a row? They won without him in 2011. The 2008 loss affected many teams and players.

 

[Wallaby]

A slightly left-of-centre choice here, but in 1993, North lost a pre-season practice match to Adelaide by 140 points - on 24 Feb 1993. North immediately sack senior coach and club legend Wayne Schimmelbusch, and current Essendon Reserves coach Dennis Pagan was installed. (I can't remember another coach being sacked pre-season)
Pagan immediately turned North around (who hadn't made finals for 5 years), and took them to 8 straight final series through the rest of the 90s, winning 2 flags.
Pagan had a reputation as a gun Junior coach - he had coached 5x U-19 premierships (at North), as well as a Reserves flag for Essendon in 1992. It is pretty clear that Pagan got the job at North because he 'knew the layout' from his 10 years coaching the U-19s there, and could hit the ground running. No one else had picked him up for a senior job in that time - eventually he left to go to Essendon Reserves in 1992 (where he won again).

So - if North stick with Schimma for 1993, and he struggles again - do North have a 'serious' look for a new coach - and if Pagan puts his hand up, well - 'No one has wanted him up to now - we need an experienced coach'. Or maybe St Kilda, the Dogs (who got new coaches in 1994) or even Richmond take a flyer on him - but that seems unlikely given no one had looked at him during his previous tenures.

No Pagan at North - no North 'Mid-1990s' era. Everything changes.

 

[Cyclops]

A slightly left-of-centre choice here, but in 1993, North lost a pre-season practice match to Adelaide by 140 points - on 24 Feb 1993. North immediately sack senior coach and club legend Wayne Schimmelbusch, and current Essendon Reserves coach Dennis Pagan was installed. (I can't remember another coach being sacked pre-season)
Pagan immediately turned North around (who hadn't made finals for 5 years), and took them to 8 straight final series through the rest of the 90s, winning 2 flags.
Pagan had a reputation as a gun Junior coach - he had coached 5x U-19 premierships (at North), as well as a Reserves flag for Essendon in 1992. It is pretty clear that Pagan got the job at North because he 'knew the layout' from his 10 years coaching the U-19s there, and could hit the ground running. No one else had picked him up for a senior job in that time - eventually he left to go to Essendon Reserves in 1992 (where he won again).

So - if North stick with Schimma for 1993, and he struggles again - do North have a 'serious' look for a new coach - and if Pagan puts his hand up, well - 'No one has wanted him up to now - we need an experienced coach'. Or maybe St Kilda, the Dogs (who got new coaches in 1994) or even Richmond take a flyer on him - but that seems unlikely given no one had looked at him during his previous tenures.

No Pagan at North - no North 'Mid-1990s' era. Everything changes.

Fair stab at it. Pagan seemed to ablero keep some pretty rough vusto.ers on rhe leash,could won 3 or 4.

I recall players used to prank Schimmelbush, no one would dare with Pagan. The place might’ve had a St Kikda air, some stars but poor culture, and I think the off field stuff would've kicked off harder and sooner without a respected leader.

...or maybe they tempt Blight and win 5?

 

[Sttew]

Collingwood start their own dynasty and Geelong again fail to get the monkey off the back...

Is that like the 2010 Collingwood dynasty?

 

[Fadge]

Is that like the 2010 Collingwood dynasty?

Yep, that one....

 

[javaguice]

The lab leak doesn't occur in Wuhan.... Melbourne never break that premiership drought. Oh how the wheel spins

 

[smasha]

The Stand rule did impact us though at the time, enough to make us a rabble that we see today? No, that was poor planning & list management on our behalf.

Also, the Stand rule wasn't the only rule the AFL brought in to try and stop the way we played. The 6-6-6 rule was brought in for 2019 because we were one of the very few teams that would start a match with 7 backs, generating our run from the back half.

Do I still think the Stand rule is a junk rule? Absolutely, the AFL brought it in with an excuse saying they wanted higher scores and felt players moving across a mark impacted a kickers efficiency, however there is no proof scores have increased at all.

And 2022 ,another Richmond flag if Lynch's goal stood.
Never played a replay at that game,still waiting.

 

[javaguice]

Kennelly doesn't rape Sampi and rip off his AFL badge from the jumper, Sampi no doubt kicks the goal and eagles win 05 & 06. Cousins cools his jets and we 07.

 

[Coach_Required]

And 2022 ,another Richmond flag if Lynch's goal stood.
Never played a replay at that game,still waiting.

The AFL told us it was a point, they were happy it was overturned on the night, however my issue with that is, the umpire signalled a goal, the review did not have enough evidence to overturn that decision. Every time i watch a game now and the arc says insufficient evidence umpires call, my eye twitches lol

It was based on a hunch. Would have we gone on in the finals? who knows, Prestia did get injured that night so maybe Geelong would have done us for once, but we will never know.

 

[STPer18]

And 2022 ,another Richmond flag if Lynch's goal stood.
Never played a replay at that game,still waiting.

 

[Run n Spread]

2009 Melbourne v Richmond macmahon goal after siren.
Dees win and they swap places. And draft picks.
Scully and trengrove were standouts and go to Richmond. Dusty to dees.
Does he have the career he does as Melbourne's development wasn't great.
No Richmond dynasty. Do crows win a flag and not go on a camp and build their own?
Do Geelong get another one or 2 creating another dynasty?
Do GWS win a flag and does it speed up development and crowds? Can they win more?

 

[LuckyBounce!]

Impossible to say, but i'll pick the one that sticks in my craw to this day and that's the 2008 Grand Final loss to Hawthorn. If Geelong had won like they should've, would they have had the same desire in 2009 against St.Kilda? The Saints were dealt a cruel blow the following year as well. Would Ablett Jr have still left to go the Gold Coast? The 2010 Ablett Jr possible move was certainly distracting? Or would Geelong have won 4 in a row? They won without him in 2011. The 2008 loss affected many teams and players.

Yup **** hawthorn!

 

[Roobs321]

2013 Prelim - Hawks v Geelong

Hawks lose this game and Clarkson gets shown the door - not because he deserved to, but because the powers that be do him in.

The ripple effect is in his coaching tree.

Beveridge, Adam Simpson, Fagan all don’t get their roles (and Premierships).

The entire decade looks very different.

that was my first thought too. Given the Kennett curse, and how good the Hawks were through 2011-13, coming up short again in that match would’ve been crushing to them. Would’ve taken serious fortitude to come back from that.

the Swans straight-setting in the 2005 SF would also have huge ripple effects for several clubs then and thereafter including GWS and Roos at the Demons, then you have the Lyon/Longmire thing, and with Maxfield leaving they were rotating captaincy that season too which got affirmed. Not to mention Huddo who had several iconic quotes connected to the Swans in that period. They were really subpar in Q1-3 of that SF until Davis stepped up, might’ve been a shake-up aftermath.

 

[Coach_Required]

If the Richmond v Geelong 2017 qualifying final game was played down in Geelong instead of the MCG.

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

Geelong beat Hawthorn in the 08 grand final after only losing one game all year. They are then not as hell bent on redemption in the 09 grand final and St. Kilda get over the line!

I think this is what might have happened. I sometimes think about 1992 and laying the Eagles bogey to rest in that first Grand Final. Cats might have won another (93 especially).

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

If the Richmond v Geelong 2017 qualifying final game was played down in Geelong instead of the MCG.

that's just mean.

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

1983 is the year Fitzroy supporters moreso look back as the premiership opportunity that got away. Who knows the ripple effect if ultimate success came that year.

After some unlucky moments in prior final series during 1986 a slightly weaker Roys outfit had more fortune to make it through to the Preliminary final. Though as the side were the walking wounded by the end of the Prelim it was probably better their campaign ended that day. Otherwise Carlton would have won by the grand final by 20 goals.

How many where the Roys drawing back in 83? It seemed a vicious cycle...losing players and drawing less until there was nothing left.

 

[LuckyBounce!]

I think this is what might have happened. I sometimes think about 1992 and laying the Eagles bogey to rest in that first Grand Final. Cats might have won another (93 especially).

1993 Geelong came home like a train too beating all the finalist I think and missed the top 6 by a game. They make the finals in 93 would have been extremely dangerous

 

[Nugett]

Rnd 9 1990 Jason Dunstall goes down with facial injury. Doesn't return till late in the season. I project that had piggy played the entire season we would 4peated.

Probably could have surpassed Coventry as well. With the 5/6 games he missed. Seeing that Dunstall finished on 1254 goals, he could have easily surpassed Coventry on 1299 into second spot. With Marvel having the Lockett/Dunstall ends, rather than Lockett/Coventry.

 

[Roylion]

How many where the Roys drawing back in 83? It seemed a vicious cycle...losing players and drawing less until there was nothing left.

Fitzroy drew more on average to their home games in 1983 (19,102) than North Melbourne, Geelong, Footscray and Hawthorn.

 

[Roysforever]

How many where the Roys drawing back in 83? It seemed a vicious cycle...losing players and drawing less until there was nothing left.

I see that numbers have been outlined. Fitzroy players and supporters definitely enjoyed Junction Oval as a home ground. The VFLs ground rationalisation policy saw the Junction Oval disused post 1984 and this hurt the club tremendously. The Roys couldn't secure a suitable ground arrangement for the following ten years till the Western (Whitten) Oval proved financially worthwhile. Though this location itself was some distance from our heartland.

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

I see that numbers have been outlined. Fitzroy players and supporters definitely enjoyed Junction Oval as a home ground. The VFLs ground rationalisation policy saw the Junction Oval disused post 1984 and this hurt the club tremendously. The Roys couldn't secure a suitable ground arrangement for the following ten years till the Western (Whitten) Oval proved financially worthwhile. Though this location itself was some distance from our heartland.

Seems like the league made one decision after another that hurt the Roys until they eventually shafted you.