Who is the best Key Defender of the 21st Century?

[Aristotle Pickett]

Matt Scarlett and its not even particularly close either.

Good one rub-a-dub. You don't rate Martin or Riewoldt either.
I don't think you understand how the game is played that well.

 

[Mr Meow]

It took a Richmond supporter to actually raise some interesting points here in possible favour of Scarlett.

Were Rance and McGovern's contested possessions only 50-60% higher than Scarlett's due to Geelong conceding a lot less inside 50's than the average team.

Well from 2007 onwards inside 50's are available. When you look through the seasons individually, Geelong were conceding around 5% less inside 50's than AFL median in most seasons. So this doesn't seem to be the answer. And in 2010 when Geelong the 4th most inside 50's in the AFL did Scarlett's contested possessions or total disposals rise?

Total disposals 17.6 is a bit above his average in prime years of around 16. But what about contested possessions? 4.2 is still around his career average. Still an absolute mile below McGovern and Rance's career contested possession average.

So what about when the Cats play v better opposition in finals, does the Scarlett Pimpernel get more contested possession?

Well that moves the needle slightly to 4.5 contested possessions per game for the arch receiver Scarlo. Still an absolute mile below Rance and McGovern. Their finals contested sherrin averages were 6.8 and 7.2 respectively.

Rance and McGovern are simply able to win more contests. They are just better athletes, better players. McGovern is by miles the best of them in the air, followed by Rance then Scarlett a bit behind Rance. Rance was by miles the best ground ball contest winner, followed by McGovern and then Scarlett. Scarlett probably the best ball user with McGovern not far behind him and Rance a fair bit behind both.

But you are talking about different levels of player here. Scarlett in 2023 would rank around 40th amongst key defenders for contested possession. Rance and McGovern would be in the top few, and that isn't their best season, that is their career average. Of the 2023 group of key defenders only Sicily and Taylor are anywhere near either Rance or McGovern for career average contested possessions. Laughably but predictably, they have 1 AA selection each. Scarlett may have been a trailblazer or something but there are loads of Scarletts around now, mostly better.

I had already mentioned the inside 50 discrepancy. Use your eyes.

You still haven't addressed Rance's terrible defensive loss % even sometimes in his AA seasons - compared to like for like players such as McGovern and Taylor. Given Scarlett was a better negator and 1v1 player than those two, it also means he was miles and miles above Rance at defending.

He repelled more attacks on the last line, hence the 5 seasons at 4+ rebound 50s a game compared to 1 for Rance (despite Scarlett's side conceding less inside 50s on average). Rance did more intercepting and spare man work up the field. So again as a pure defender Scarlett was better and his ball use was several levels above Rance. His effective disposal numbers would've easily surpassed Rance.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Since you are using possession metrics and dismissing game styles as impacting them across different eras, then you are obviously incredibly clueless.

The people have spoken, as usual you can’t handle it and have a Meltdown.

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The people don't understand football. Silvagni and Mathews rate Rance above Scarlett, I think they know more that the bigfooty posters somehow.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Rance was All Australian captain in 2017

 

[Mr Meow]

Rance was All Australian captain in 2017

You didn't seem to rate that much when Hawkins ticked that box.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

You didn't seem to rate that much when Hawkins ticked that box.

No I didn't with Hawkins because it was a charity award to a player at the end of his career.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No I didn't with Hawkins because it was a charity award to a player at the end of his career.

How the **** is anyone supposed to rate any Geelong player AA honour? Geelong 5 dynasty years 2007-11 30 AA selections. Hawthorn 5 dynasty years 2011-15 AA selections 13. Geelong won about 1 extra home and away game per season. Clubs played in same amount of Grand Finals, won same amount of flags.

Beyond laughable but it is good because the effect is all Geelong AA honours are near worthless, with more question marks on them than Franky Gorshin.




And all other clubs AA selections become even more noteworthy because they had to get through the Geelong player bottleneck that is akin to a rodent plague.

 

[Fadge]

Lol yes, backmen should just drop the ball and start trying to defend each time they take possession.

This might explain it to you a little bit better than I every could:



Sorry to do that to you dopple.

Oh yes. 2018. I remember that year.

Collingwood lost to the 2nd placed team by 16 points in WA in a classic finals game, accounted for a talented GWS team in a hard fought Semi Final win, annihilate the season's minor premier in the Preliminary Final, lose the Grand Final by less than a kick, meaning they lost two finals games contributing to their status as a Div 2 Finals team.

I wish our season was more like Carlton's that year, who won two games for the season, but that allows them to maintain their status as a Div 1 finals team....

 

[Jeremias]

Dismissing actual performance measures when comparing players is not embarrassing of course.

Sure it is, particularly when you select “performance measures” completely irrelevant to that player’s role.

Why not use hitouts too whilst you’re at it?

When this clown opposes me I now KNOW I am on the right track.

Getting personal now because your argument doesn’t stack up?

'A clear gap' ? You've got to be joking. Rance revolutionised the game by guarding multiple players at once.

No, he didn’t. He did often play loose though.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Sure it is, particularly when you select “performance measures” completely irrelevant to that player’s role.

Why not use hitouts too whilst you’re at it?



Getting personal now because your argument doesn’t stack up?



No, he didn’t. He did often play loose though.

Which role is winning contests not relevant to? Ludicrous statement by you.

Why don't you explain to us then exactly how you go about working out which of these players is better....

And while you are at it tell us exactly which performance measures are relevant to the role of key defender...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Oh yes. 2018. I remember that year.

Collingwood lost to the 2nd placed team by 16 points in WA in a classic finals game, accounted for a talented GWS team in a hard fought Semi Final win, annihilate the season's minor premier in the Preliminary Final, lose the Grand Final by less than a kick, meaning they lost two finals games contributing to their status as a Div 2 Finals team.

I wish our season was more like Carlton's that year, who won two games for the season, but that allows them to maintain their status as a Div 1 finals team....

Lol it seems to be some sort of shock to you that my method of working out who performs better in finals actually measures performance in finals.

Let's face it, Collingwood have been chief amongst the Div 2 finals cloggers over the journey. If you want to know who have been the best teams across home and away seasons, I usually just refer to the ladder at the end of each home and away season to give a rough guide.

 

[Caligo]

And while you are at it tell us exactly which performance measures are relevant to the role of key defender...

The most important number I always look at is % of contested 1on1s lost (for key defenders who consistently take the best key forward).

One of the biggest knocks on rance is that he usually did not take the best key forward. Dave usually did that. Although Rance always did take the best key forward against my club. And did it better than anyone in the league.

 

[STPer18]

Scarlo: Matthew Lloyd tribute

Matthew Lloyd pays tribute to Matthew Scarlett

www.geelongcats.com.au

Wanganeen's one-time teammate Lloyd rated Scarlett as his best opponent (Scarlett returned the compliment) and says the crafty Cat became a nightmare match-up.

"He was the total package and the first backman who gave me a sleepless night. I'd think, 'Oh no, I've got Scarlett tomorrow,'" Lloyd said.

"He changed the way I viewed backs. I'd never worried about any full-back before him.

"He'd mop up, take a bounce, give it off and follow up. He'd make me go on 150-metre runs and I'd look silly if I didn't go with him.

"If I missed a shot at goal I'd curse myself because instead of waiting with him in the goalsquare for the centre bounce, I'd be chasing him to our half-backline.

"It was a game of cat-and-mouse."

 

[Jeremias]

Which role is winning contests not relevant to? Ludicrous statement by you.

I already told you the issue.

Using disposal, contested possessions and tackles to rate full backs is laughable.

Again, why not use hitouts whilst you’re at it? After all, they’re just as relevant to that role.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Scarlo: Matthew Lloyd tribute

Matthew Lloyd pays tribute to Matthew Scarlett

www.geelongcats.com.au

Doesn't add much to this particular debate saying who Matthew Lloyd considered his best opponent given he essentially didn't play on half the guys being discussed.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I already told you the issue.

Using disposal, contested possessions and tackles to rate full backs is laughable.

Again, why not use hitouts whilst you’re at it? After all, they’re just as relevant to that role.

You are just being silly. Winning contests is the highest and best thing any defender can do.

Players that can do any or all of winning a high amount of contests, effecting a lot of spoils, applying a lot of tackles are invaluable in key defensive posts.

So you seem to me to have that part totally wrong.

But you omitted to tell us how you decided who has been the best key defender...

 

[bzparkes]

Always amusing to see the Richmond supporters lose their minds when people don't rate their player as the best in position.

Don't worry kiddos, you still have Dusty...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The most important number I always look at is % of contested 1on1s lost (for key defenders who consistently take the best key forward).

One of the biggest knocks on rance is that he usually did not take the best key forward. Dave usually did that. Although Rance always did take the best key forward against my club. And did it better than anyone in the league.

This to me is a very important part of a key defender's role.

But the only guide we have to 1 v 1 contest losing % for Scarlett is his final year in 2012. His losing % was 29, way above Rance's career average of 21.6. McGovern's career average is 19.7%, so quite close to Rance's. I would confidently say nullifying 1 v 1 contests was not a great strength of any of these players although all 3 are or were reasonable at it. Rance has lost more 1 v 1's in aggregate than McGovern simply because he was in way more 1 v 1's than McGovern. And way more on average than the very limited data we have for Scarlett indicates he was in.

But say we look at Jacob Weitering who was just about the best in the AFL at not losing defensive 1 v 1's in 2023. His overall career record is he loses 21.6% of 1 v 1 contests, really similar to Rance. Sam Taylor goes at 21.1% so far in his career. Harris Andrews 21.4%. Darcy Moore 18.4%. You are talking about a few % difference between all of them and likely Scarlett as well over his career. And that few % represents all of about 2-3 contests difference per SEASON. This is nowhere near enough to bridge the gap on a player winning 2.5 extra contests per match as both Rance and McGovern do v Scarlett.

Rance did what all modern key defenders do, they simply set up in the best formation to defend the ground and create valuable turnovers. His 1 v 1 defensive contest loss % basically stacks up with any of these guys mentioned anyway.

 

[Caligo]

This to me is a very important part of a key defender's role.

But the only guide we have to 1 v 1 contest losing % for Scarlett is his final year in 2012. His losing % was 29, way above Rance's career average of 21.6. McGovern's career average is 19.7%, so quite close to Rance's. I would confidently say nullifying 1 v 1 contests was not a great strength of any of these players although all 3 are or were reasonable at it. Rance has lost more 1 v 1's than McGovern simply because he was in way more 1 v 1's than McGovern. And way ore on average than the very limited data we have for Scarlett indicates he was in.

But say we look at Jacob Weitering who was just about the best in the AFL at not losing defensive 1 v 1's in 2023. His overall career record is he loses 21.6% of 1 v 1 contests, really similar to Rance. Sam Taylor goes at 21.1% so far in his career. Harris Andrews 21.4%. Darcy Moore 18.4%. You are talking about a few % difference between all of them and likely Scarlett as ell over his career. And that few % represents all of about 2-3 contests difference per SEASON. This is nowhere near enough to bridge the gap on a player winning 2.5 extra contests per match as both Rance and McGovern do v Scarlett.

Rance did what al modern key defenders do, they simply set up in the best formation to defend the ground and create valuable turnovers. His 1 v 1 defensive contest loss % basically stacks up with any of these guys mentioned anyway.

Rance did not take the best key forward most weeks though. He is excluded from that conversation. Everyone else you named did indeed take the best most weeks.

That Darcy Moore number is pretty darn solid. I wish we had data on guys like leppa and Scarlett.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Rance did not take the best key forward most weeks though. He is excluded from that conversation. Everyone else you named did indeed take the best most weeks.

That Darcy Moore number is pretty darn solid. I wish we had data on guys like leppa and Scarlett.

It would be good to have data on who stands on which opponent. But we don't, we only have our perceptions. The thing is the main job of a key defender is to get in line with where the ball is entering and impact that contest. I doubt we have seen anyone better at that than Rance this century. His contest wins, spoils, 1%ers and defensive 1 v 1's in combination I am pretty sure beats anyone.

Who you are "on" is a bit secondary these days, but Richmond were always trying to get Rance in line with the incoming ball, so he will have very often had to deal with the best key forwards directly, who the opposition team is also trying to get in line with the incoming ball to contest it. Who you are standing on when the ball is up the other end is near meaningless these days.

If you think Darcy Moore's 1 v 1 number is solid, he is basically losing 1 in 5 from his average of about 3.4 x 1 v 1 contests per match.

Rance also lost roughy 1 in 5 but this was a function of more like 5 x 1 v 1 contests per match. So Rance was isolated on the target player about 50% more often than Darcy Moore is. Race simply seemed to get involved in a lot more contests than most other key defenders and this is why he was so good.

Opposition teams wouldn't be kicking to Rance v gimp 1 v 1 contests 5+ times per match. He was clearly in the firing line as much as any key defender.

 

[Mr Meow]

This to me is a very important part of a key defender's role.

But the only guide we have to 1 v 1 contest losing % for Scarlett is his final year in 2012. His losing % was 29, way above Rance's career average of 21.6. McGovern's career average is 19.7%, so quite close to Rance's. I would confidently say nullifying 1 v 1 contests was not a great strength of any of these players although all 3 are or were reasonable at it. Rance has lost more 1 v 1's in aggregate than McGovern simply because he was in way more 1 v 1's than McGovern. And way more on average than the very limited data we have for Scarlett indicates he was in.

But say we look at Jacob Weitering who was just about the best in the AFL at not losing defensive 1 v 1's in 2023. His overall career record is he loses 21.6% of 1 v 1 contests, really similar to Rance. Sam Taylor goes at 21.1% so far in his career. Harris Andrews 21.4%. Darcy Moore 18.4%. You are talking about a few % difference between all of them and likely Scarlett as well over his career. And that few % represents all of about 2-3 contests difference per SEASON. This is nowhere near enough to bridge the gap on a player winning 2.5 extra contests per match as both Rance and McGovern do v Scarlett.

Rance did what all modern key defenders do, they simply set up in the best formation to defend the ground and create valuable turnovers. His 1 v 1 defensive contest loss % basically stacks up with any of these guys mentioned anyway.

Truly absurd to try and use Scarlett's 33 year old, severely declined defensive 2012 as a marker for his career in 1v1 loss %. Just a year earlier he was AA but age finally caught him, 4 years after the equivalent point at which Rance retired.

At his best, McGovern had a 7-10% loss rate as well while Rance was still around 20-25% even while not always taking the best forward.

Scarlett's best defensive work was at least on the level of Harry Taylor's best (conservatively) who also achieved single digit loss % in his best few years. But Scarlett was at that level for longer and hence the 6 AA's.

 

[PenrithGWS]

Scarlett. Would of been a nightmare to pay on as forward.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Scarlett. Would of been a nightmare to pay on as forward.

You can say that again. Worse kind of defender to play on, one who stands on his own deep in defence and demands the ball be given to him by his team-mates.

 

[Caligo]

It would be good to have data on who stands on which opponent. But we don't, we only have our perceptions. The thing is the main job of a key defender is to get in line with where the ball is entering and impact that contest. I doubt we have seen anyone better at that than Rance this century. His contest wins, spoils, 1%ers and defensive 1 v 1's in combination I am pretty sure beats anyone.

Who you are "on" is a bit secondary these days, but Richmond were always trying to get Rance in line with the incoming ball, so he will have very often had to deal with the best key forwards directly, who the opposition team is also trying to get in line with the incoming ball to contest it. Who you are standing on when the ball is up the other end is near meaningless these days.

If you think Darcy Moore's 1 v 1 number is solid, he is basically losing 1 in 5 from his average of about 3.4 x 1 v 1 contests per match.

Rance also lost roughy 1 in 5 but this was a function of more like 5 x 1 v 1 contests per match. So Rance was isolated on the target player about 50% more often than Darcy Moore is. Race simply seemed to get involved in a lot more contests than most other key defenders and this is why he was so good.

Opposition teams wouldn't be kicking to Rance v gimp 1 v 1 contests 5+ times per match. He was clearly in the firing line as much as any key defender.

What you are describing is a loose defender not a key defender. Rance was arguably the best loose defender considering how much he did it, but when McGovern played loose I think he was even better. The best loose defender in the game right now plays for my club I think.

Key defenders are accountable for their opponent. The best key defenders are accountable for the best key forwards. For peak rance period, that was usually Astbury taking the best key forward.

Having no stats on two key players though (lep and scarlo) really sucks though. Especially since I just feel like Scarlett is my pick.

 

[Mr Meow]

You can say that again. Worse kind of defender to play on, one who stands on his own deep in defence and demands the ball be given to him by his team-mates.

This reveals that you a) never actually watched Scarlett play, b) have a shocking memory or c) are desperately trying to throw mud and not even coming close. Rance was easily the worst 1v1 defender of anyone in the poll so the irony is that you're actually describing your own player.