Banter Who will be better in 2024? Carlton or Collingwood? Part 2

[Arr0w]

The backtracking is in full swing

Glorious

 

[Worm4]

I just like looking at the fixture each year and seeing we get two 'quick kills' with Carlton twice.

Then you shouldn't have any issues with the fixturing then given you get 8 points in the back pocket before season starts and Carlton don't. It's a pretty good advantage for the pies you would have thought

 

[Fadge]

Then you shouldn't have any issues with the fixturing then given you get 8 points in the back pocket before season starts and Carlton don't. It's a pretty good advantage for the pies you would have thought

Who says I have 'problems with the fixturing'?

All I did was highlight a 2 game difference as at Round 17 isn't the extreme gulf in respective teams' abilities that some Carlton posters are making it out to be.

 

[carlton_99]

Who says I have 'problems with the fixturing'?

All I did was highlight a 2 game difference as at Round 17 isn't the extreme gulf in respective teams' abilities that some Carlton posters are making it out to be.

But when Collingwood were ahead by half a game but 5 positions on the ladder it was the talk of the town on here...

 

[Robertio]

Comments like this really do amuse me.

Collingwood are a whole 8 premiership points behind Carlton, courtesy of Carlton having already played the bottom two teams 3 times, with their 4th game against them coming up this weekend. Conversely, Collingwood have played a single game against the same two teams. Not to mention dissentgate against Fremantle in Gather Round.

So Collingwood have a world of hurt ahead of them (as we heard in 2021), whilst Carlton are flying and will contend for the next 5 flags.

Boy oh boy wowee.

Do you think your older players will get any younger?

 

[Fadge]

Do you think your older players will get any younger?

There's a reason Collingwood have played in 6 Grand Finals and finished top 4 another handful of times sides the turn of the century.

Astute list management.
Strong development.
Winning culture.

 

[Robertio]

There's a reason Collingwood have played in 6 Grand Finals and finished top 4 another handful of times sides the turn of the century.

Astute list management.
Strong development.
Winning culture.

Good development and winning culture yes but ask Adam Treloar and Brody Gundry about the list management who i guess never saw the drop off coming and now haven't got a first round pick unless they give someone else the boot.

 

[Worm4]

There's a reason Collingwood have played in 6 Grand Finals and finished top 4 another handful of times sides the turn of the century.

Astute list management.
Strong development.
Winning culture.

So you are happy with collingwoods currents list as at right now and how the astute list management have weakened its draft position moving forward ? Irrespective of a 2023 flag, are you really impressed ? It's not like there is an army of fans patting themselves on the back going off this year's results thus far is it ?

 

[Fadge]

Are you guys just cutting and pasting these comments above from late 2021?

If so, that's very lazy...

 

[Worm4]

Are you guys just cutting and pasting these comments above from late 2021?

If so, that's very lazy...

Do you know the effort involved to actually do that ?

 

[Worm4]

Do you think your older players will get any younger?

The fountain of youth is 50 metres south of their training facility it seems

 

[Mr Meow]

The table I provided takes the team's ladder position at the time not current. You can ignore it if you want.

But by any objective measure of the total fixture we have - whether you go off opposition ladder position at the time, games against current top 8 or top 10 or top 13, games against bottom 8 etc

Find me any sort of metric that looks at the totality of the 18 games so far and shows Carlton having a softer draw than Collingwood.

And not sure what you not having played a team twice yet matters. We play three bottom 6 sides in the last 3 games of the year for the first time. That is after playing the likes of Geelong, Collingwood, Port and GWS twice

This is such a stupid way to determine fixture difficulty.

And in fact there is no good way. The teams placed 2nd through 13th are so even that the slightest form fluctuation could make a game against 13th a difficult game or a game against 3rd an easy game.

The ladder will change week by week depending on how "difficult" each team's draw has been to that point, so you would need to somehow run an analysis on the difficulty of every single team's draw to that specific round, THEN re-grade how difficult that opponent is. And do that not just for Carlton, but every team. It would be a mess.

But the "simple" version you are referencing is completely invalid. Much like raw counts of "games missed from best 22" are pointless in determining who has been most affected/decimated by injuries.

I know all of this goes against your beloved narratives of Carlton having the most challenges in injuries and fixture difficulty this season though, so I know you will disagree for that reason.

 

[carlton_99]

This is such a stupid way to determine fixture difficulty.

And in fact there is no good way. The teams placed 2nd through 13th are so even that the slightest form fluctuation could make a game against 13th a difficult game or a game against 3rd an easy game.

The ladder will change week by week depending on how "difficult" each team's draw has been to that point, so you would need to somehow run an analysis on the difficulty of every single team's draw to that specific round, THEN re-grade how difficult that opponent is. And do that not just for Carlton, but every team. It would be a mess.

But the "simple" version you are referencing is completely invalid. Much like raw counts of "games missed from best 22" are pointless in determining who has been most affected/decimated by injuries.

I know all of this goes against your beloved narratives of Carlton having the most challenges in injuries and fixture difficulty this season though, so I know you will disagree for that reason.

Once again as I have stated all metrics have their limitations. This however is certainly better than just looking at 4 games out of 23. But of course that came from a Collingwood fan so "neutral" supporters like yourself will remain silent on that.

 

[Mr Meow]

Once again as I have stated all metrics have their limitations. This however is certainly better than just looking at 4 games out of 23. But of course that came from a Collingwood fan so "neutral" supporters like yourself will remain silent on that.

It goes beyond limitations though, it's just pointless as a bit of data. Until everyone has played each other once a "rolling ladder" means nothing, and even then there are the other factors I highlighted i.e it's not who you play but when you play them. Getting Carlton the past fortnight was different to getting them 5 weeks ago etc, or facing Brisbane lately compared to the first 6 weeks. And with such an even comp all you can really say is that there are a few tiers of teams - Sydney by themselves, 2nd through 13th, St Kilda/Adelaide in no man's land, and then a very clear bottom 3 of NM/Richmond/WCE.

If you double up against Sydney that's a challenge, if you double up against the bottom 3 (especially 2 or 3 of them) then it's an advantage. There isn't much else that's meaningful. But amongst all the other noise of the rest of a fixture, it still doesn't mean that much.

 

[Fadge]

Once again as I have stated all metrics have their limitations. This however is certainly better than just looking at 4 games out of 23. But of course that came from a Collingwood fan so "neutral" supporters like yourself will remain silent on that.

My comment highlighting the 4 games (out of 18, not 23 - as Carlton will have played double up games against both Richmond and North Melbourne in their first 18 games) was a comment on the vagaries of the fixture.

Why wouldn't it be a relevant response to the commentary that 'Collingwood are old and washed up because they're 12th' whilst 'Carlton are flying because they're 2nd', when only 8 premiership points separate the teams.

Data is important.

 

[Mr Meow]

Once again as I have stated all metrics have their limitations. This however is certainly better than just looking at 4 games out of 23. But of course that came from a Collingwood fan so "neutral" supporters like yourself will remain silent on that.

"Neutral" supporters like myself. Yes because obviously all neutral supporters adore Collingwood and despise Carlton. You really are on Planet Lala Land.

 

[carlton_99]

"Neutral" supporters like myself. Yes because obviously all neutral supporters adore Collingwood and despise Carlton. You really are on Planet Lala Land.

You didn't catch the sarcasm?

I'm not the one on Planet Lala Land if you seriously think you have been neutral in your comments/responses on this thread.

 

[Fadge]

It goes beyond limitations though, it's just pointless as a bit of data. Until everyone has played each other once a "rolling ladder" means nothing, and even then there are the other factors I highlighted i.e it's not who you play but when you play them. Getting Carlton the past fortnight was different to getting them 5 weeks ago etc, or facing Brisbane lately compared to the first 6 weeks. And with such an even comp all you can really say is that there are a few tiers of teams - Sydney by themselves, 2nd through 13th, St Kilda/Adelaide in no man's land, and then a very clear bottom 3 of NM/Richmond/WCE.

If you double up against Sydney that's a challenge, if you double up against the bottom 3 (especially 2 or 3 of them) then it's an advantage. There isn't much else that's meaningful. But amongst all the other noise of the rest of a fixture, it still doesn't mean that much.

Indeed.

You don't see a team miss out on top 4 if they play consistently well enough across a season, in the same way that if Collingwood miss the top 8 this year, it's simply because they haven't played well enough often enough... not because we've had a harder draw than other teams.

There may be teams inside the top 8 that have their finishing positions flattered or otherwise based on the relative draw difficulties (not a simple table showing where each side was when they played, but the difficulty of the opposition at the time of the game, in game injuries, dubious results, etc) but that's why we have a finals system to identify the genuine contenders and eliminate the pretenders.

 

[Mr Meow]

You didn't catch the sarcasm?

I'm not the one on Planet Lala Land if you seriously think you have been neutral in your comments/responses on this thread.

I was picking apart the angle of the sarcasm actually. Instead of debating the point, you had to add "neutral" supporter as some kind of deflection.

FWIW I'm happier to see Collingwood's decline on the ladder than I would be for Carlton, but that doesn't preclude me from rubbishing stupid statements or poor analysis from supporters of the other (or any) team.

 

[carlton_99]

I was picking apart the angle of the sarcasm actually. Instead of debating the point, you had to add "neutral" supporter as some kind of deflection.

FWIW I'm happier to see Collingwood's decline on the ladder than I would be for Carlton, but that doesn't preclude me from rubbishing stupid statements or poor analysis from supporters of the other (or any) team.

And yet you saw someone focus on 4/18 games in their analysis and stayed silent. You have seen Collingwood fans discuss injuries and treated it completely different to Carlton supporters doing the same.

You may be neutral in reality but your posts in this thread and the way you have interacted with the different set of supporters are worlds apart.

 

[Mr Meow]

And yet you saw someone focus on 4/18 games in their analysis and stayed silent. You have seen Collingwood fans discuss injuries and treated it completely different to Carlton supporters doing the same.

You may be neutral in reality but your posts in this thread and the way you have interacted with the different set of supporters are worlds apart.

Your "gotcha" reply wasn't a gotcha at all. In fact I'd say at surface level if you get to play NM/WCE/Richmond twice (as a hypothetical) this season, that means more than if you played a team in 11th twice compared to a team in 6th twice.

I have rubbished injury excuse deflectors of all teams, all season, and Collingwood's woes have gone beyond injuries. But their injuries this season have been a bigger detractor than the one Carlton supporters were sobbing about around round 7 - yes. That's an opinion you will say could only come from a "neutral" but I've articulated how I grade injury lists before, and it does go beyond a simple how many games missed/players missing from a best 23. It's not nuance you like though so I won't bother going into it again. I'll wait for you to play the man again, highlighting some supposed adoration of Collingwood and loathing of Carlton I have, and then we can go from there.

 

[Worm4]

My comment highlighting the 4 games (out of 18, not 23 - as Carlton will have played double up games against both Richmond and North Melbourne in their first 18 games) was a comment on the vagaries of the fixture.

Why wouldn't it be a relevant response to the commentary that 'Collingwood are old and washed up because they're 12th' whilst 'Carlton are flying because they're 2nd', when only 8 premiership points separate the teams.

Data is important.

So by round 20 when Collingwood would have played West coast , Richmond and Hawthorn , do you think the pies will have caught up to us in the ladder ?

 

[Mr Meow]

carlton_99 my interactions with supporters are based on whether I agree with the content and style of their posts. That is completely separate from how much I like/dislike their football club. That doesn't mean I disagree with everything a Carlton supporter says or vice versa for Collingwood, but if you feel "picked on" it is simply because I disagree with the points you are making. It doesn't go beyond that.

 

[carlton_99]

Your "gotcha" reply wasn't a gotcha at all. In fact I'd say at surface level if you get to play NM/WCE/Richmond twice (as a hypothetical) this season, that means more than if you played a team in 11th twice compared to a team in 6th twice.

I have rubbished injury excuse deflectors of all teams, all season, and Collingwood's woes have gone beyond injuries. But their injuries this season have been a bigger detractor than the one Carlton supporters were sobbing about around round 7 - yes. That's an opinion you will say could only come from a "neutral" but I've articulated how I grade injury lists before, and it does go beyond a simple how many games missed/players missing from a best 23. It's not nuance you like though so I won't bother going into it again. I'll wait for you to play the man again, highlighting some supposed adoration of Collingwood and loathing of Carlton I have, and then we can go from there.

Wasn't a gotcha reply at all - any person can see that using 4/18 games to judge a fixture is ridiculous.

And on injuries I never said "best 23" injuries is all that matters. What I have seen from the other set of supporters in here is a focus on top 5 Carlton players not being injured. Unless we are playing basketball "injuries to top 5" would not be a reasonable way of determining injury issues. Again something I don't remember you mentioning

None of this is "playing the man". I don't know you so none of this is personal

 

[Mr Meow]

My comment highlighting the 4 games (out of 18, not 23 - as Carlton will have played double up games against both Richmond and North Melbourne in their first 18 games) was a comment on the vagaries of the fixture.

Why wouldn't it be a relevant response to the commentary that 'Collingwood are old and washed up because they're 12th' whilst 'Carlton are flying because they're 2nd', when only 8 premiership points separate the teams.

Data is important.

Double ups against the "free pass" trio are a more reliable fixture differentiator than where the teams you played sat on a rolling ladder, or where they sit now. That much should be fairly obvious unless you think 3rd placed Geelong and 6th placed Essendon are actually much better teams this season than 10th placed Bulldogs and 13th placed Hawthorn. In reality not much separates these teams, depending on where and when you have played them.