Banter Who will be better in 2025, Carlton or Collingwood? Part 3

[Chronz]

Your list substantially drops away after Daicos.

We rely on our top 10 but it’s better than relying on a top 1.

Cripps >> Weitering > Curnow ∞ spuds

 

[Fadge]

If I were picking a squad for 2025, here is the order of players I would pick from the respective teams, based on expected performance, durability, leadership and versatility:


I went down to Collingwood's 23rd player, and worked out how many Carlton players I would pick ahead of who would be in Collingwood's best team.

One of these two teams has the list quality and depth to potentially be a premiership contender in 2025, and the other doesn't.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Fadge has wonderful football knowledge. I like to tap his expertise whenever possible. He's good with numbers too.

He’s not gunna sleep with you mate.

 

[Bale Dup]

If I were picking a squad for 2025, here is the order of players I would pick from the respective teams, based on expected performance, durability, leadership and versatility:
View attachment 2148086

I went down to Collingwood's 23rd player, and worked out how many Carlton players I would pick ahead of who would be in Collingwood's best team.

One of these two teams has the list quality and depth to potentially be a premiership contender in 2025, and the other doesn't.

Yeah, the main issue Fadge is that you overvalue your players and undervalue ours, so nice graph, but means sfa.
Your values, for your players are based on what they've done in years gone by and for most of them there's a lot of years gone by. As far as I can tell you believe your oldies will continue to operate at past levels. Hmm. We'll see.

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[Bale Dup]

If I were picking a squad for 2025, here is the order of players I would pick from the respective teams, based on expected performance, durability, leadership and versatility:
View attachment 2148086

I went down to Collingwood's 23rd player, and worked out how many Carlton players I would pick ahead of who would be in Collingwood's best team.

One of these two teams has the list quality and depth to potentially be a premiership contender in 2025, and the other doesn't.

You also forgot JSOS & O Hollands who are just as good as WHE, Cox & Lipinski. And Mitchell? Come on man. Durable? Be lucky to get back on a park.

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[btdg]

If I were picking a squad for 2025, here is the order of players I would pick from the respective teams, based on expected performance, durability, leadership and versatility:
View attachment 2148086

I went down to Collingwood's 23rd player, and worked out how many Carlton players I would pick ahead of who would be in Collingwood's best team.

One of these two teams has the list quality and depth to potentially be a premiership contender in 2025, and the other doesn't.

Shock horror - you think the players in the team you support are better than opposition? If I did the same list I'd probably end up similar the other way.

Let's try and use a more objective measure - the SI AFL player rankings (which compares players relative to position and across a range of measures) and see how it compares. Combined list

Top 10 - let's call these the A-graders
1. Cripps (Carl)
2. Daicos (Coll)
3. Houston (Coll)
4. Curnow (Carl)
5. Walsh (Carl)
6. Crisp (Coll)
7. Moore (Coll)
8. Weitering (Carl)
9. De Goey (Coll)
10. Hewett (Carl)
Top 10 is 5/5, with Houston obviously not having played a game but still ranking very high

Next 10 - lets call these the B+ players
11. Pendlebury (Coll)
12. Newman (Carl)
13. McKay (Carl)
14. Cameron (Coll)
15. J Daicos (Coll)
16. Saad (Carl)
17. De Koning (Carl)
18. E Hollands (Carl)
19. Cerra (Carl)
20. Howe (Coll)
Next 10 = 6x Carlton, 4x Collingwood

Next 10 is your solid B-graders
21. Acres (Carl)
22. Schultz (Coll)
23. Lipinski (Coll)
24. Sidebottom (Coll)
25. Maynard (Coll)
26. Quaynor (Coll)
27. Pittonet (Carl)
28. Perryman (Coll)
29. Elliott (Coll)
30. McGovern (Carl)
This set is 3x Carlton, 7x Collingwood and represents a 2024 weak spot for Carlton. This is where Docherty would likely be if fit, same with Williams, and ideally Martin (who is now gone from the list). It's still pretty even overall though

Next 10 = C+ players (solid role guys - note Kennedy would have been 31, Noble would have been 36
31. Williams (Carl)
32. Mihocek (Coll)
33. Docherty (Carl)
34. Mitchell (Coll)
35. Lachie Fogarty (Carl)
36. Kemp (Carl)
37. Hoskin-Elliott (Coll)
38. Young (Carl)
39. Cox (Coll)
40. Frampton (Coll)
Again, it is 5xCollingwood and 5x Carlton. Very even in this category

Next 10 = C-graders (bottom 6 most weeks, but fairly likely to play - Richards would be 45, )
41. Hill (Coll)
42. Cincotta (Carl)
43. McCreery (Coll)
44. Silvagni (Carl)
45. Haynes (Carl)
46. McStay (Coll)
47. Markov (Coll)
48. Cottrell (Carl)
49. Hollands (Carl)
50. Fantasia (Carl)

In this category we go 6x Carlton and 4x Collingwood. So if you go all the way to best 50 combined- ie: the players likely to play each week give or take an injury or two - we land in exactly the same spot - 25 players on each list. That actually excludes Carlton's pick 3, who will likely slot in there somewhere

Even going to the next level of depth (likely to play quite a bit due to injury)
51. Dean (Coll)
52. Harrison (Coll)
53. Cowan (Carl)
54. Boyd (Carl)
55. Carroll (Carl)
56. Sullivan (Coll)
57. Binns (Carl)
58. Motlop (Carl)
59. Carmichael (Coll)
60. McRae (Coll)
We're still at 5-5 and the lists are looking pretty comparable

Basically, if you compare the lists with some attempt at objectivity they line up... very closely. Which isn't surprising because the teams finished the season equal and separated by %. You can make a case that Carlton are slightly ahead with injury dropping a few down the list, but could make an equal case that Collingwood had a 'down' year post-premiership.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

You also forgot JSOS & O Hollands who are just as good as WHE, Cox & Lipinski. And Mitchell? Come on man. Durable? Be lucky to get back on a park.

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Mate, you wash your mouth out!

Cox kicked 3 goals in a quarter 6 years ago! Mitchell won a Brownlow once!!

To be fair though WHE is still shirking contests 10 years into his career.

 

[carlton_99]

If I were picking a squad for 2025, here is the order of players I would pick from the respective teams, based on expected performance, durability, leadership and versatility:
View attachment 2148086

I went down to Collingwood's 23rd player, and worked out how many Carlton players I would pick ahead of who would be in Collingwood's best team.

One of these two teams has the list quality and depth to potentially be a premiership contender in 2025, and the other doesn't.

I can easily make an argument for the following:
McKay/Walsh > Houston
TDK > Pendlebury/JDG
Saad/Acres/Hewett > Maynard/McStay/Quaynor/Hill/Perryman/Mihocek
E.Hollands > McReery/Elliot
Docherty > WHE/Lipinski

 

[doppleganger]

Houston is a fantastic signing for the dirty birds. Houston to kidgoat to whoever finds space - perfect inclusion for the 9th best team or was it 10th I forget now in 2024. Might be enough to see them maintain their dominance over other middling Clubs - maybe.

Fingers crossed the Pies get Carlton twice again...in 2025, two easy wins against a "middling" club.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If I were picking a squad for 2025, here is the order of players I would pick from the respective teams, based on expected performance, durability, leadership and versatility:
View attachment 2148086

I went down to Collingwood's 23rd player, and worked out how many Carlton players I would pick ahead of who would be in Collingwood's best team.

One of these two teams has the list quality and depth to potentially be a premiership contender in 2025, and the other doesn't.

Boy oh boy wowee...

Pendlebury equal with DeKoning?

McSpud ahead of Saad, Hewett and Acres?

Perryman the same?

McReery ahead of anyone on this list?

Mason Cox??????


This list is absolutely hilarious

 

[carlton_99]

Fingers crossed the Pies get Carlton twice again...in 2025, two easy wins against a "middling" club.

Fingers crossed we get 33 games at the MCG in 2025

 

[Bale Dup]

Fingers crossed the Pies get Carlton twice again...in 2025, two easy wins against a "middling" club.

If we don't get you guys twice next season I will eat a hat. The AFL will never change that. Far too much $ out the door for that to happen.
I for one seriously hope that is the case coz I want no excuses next year, after we absolutely smash you, like "oh yeah we only got to play you once. If we'd played ya twice we would've won the 2nd one"

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[doppleganger]

Ummm.
We brought in Perryman and Houston.
You brought in pick 3 and lost your F1 and F2.
Spot the difference Worm?

Poor Wormy is a battler.

We brought in Perryman and Houston, two players who were in previous clubs leadership groups and who had top10 finishes in clubs BnFs for teams who both went deep in September.

We lost JF Noble a limited trier and Richards a mature age depth player.

Pies clearly improved our list.

Carlton moved on their best clubman and a bloke who finished top10 in their BnF, and their 3rd highest goal scorer from 2024...and only brought in Haynes, a washed up GWS flanker who GWS had moved on from.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Guess who?

 

[doppleganger]

If we don't get you guys twice next season I will eat a hat. The AFL will never change that. Far too much $ out the door for that to happen.
I for one seriously hope that is the case coz I want no excuses next year, after we absolutely smash you, like "oh yeah we only got to play you once. If we'd played ya twice we would've won the 2nd one"

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Carlton aint beat Collingwood in a game that mattered for almost a decade.

But yeah...next year

 

[South of the Yarra]

Shock horror - you think the players in the team you support are better than opposition? If I did the same list I'd probably end up similar the other way.

Let's try and use a more objective measure - the SI AFL player rankings (which compares players relative to position and across a range of measures) and see how it compares. Combined list

Top 10 - let's call these the A-graders
1. Cripps (Carl)
2. Daicos (Coll)
3. Houston (Coll)
4. Curnow (Carl)
5. Walsh (Carl)
6. Crisp (Coll)
7. Moore (Coll)
8. Weitering (Carl)
9. De Goey (Coll)
10. Hewett (Carl)
Top 10 is 5/5, with Houston obviously not having played a game but still ranking very high

Next 10 - lets call these the B+ players
11. Pendlebury (Coll)
12. Newman (Carl)
13. McKay (Carl)
14. Cameron (Coll)
15. J Daicos (Coll)
16. Saad (Carl)
17. De Koning (Carl)
18. E Hollands (Carl)
19. Cerra (Carl)
20. Howe (Coll)
Next 10 = 6x Carlton, 4x Collingwood

Next 10 is your solid B-graders
21. Acres (Carl)
22. Schultz (Coll)
23. Lipinski (Coll)
24. Sidebottom (Coll)
25. Maynard (Coll)
26. Quaynor (Coll)
27. Pittonet (Carl)
28. Perryman (Coll)
29. Elliott (Coll)
30. McGovern (Carl)
This set is 3x Carlton, 7x Collingwood and represents a 2024 weak spot for Carlton. This is where Docherty would likely be if fit, same with Williams, and ideally Martin (who is now gone from the list). It's still pretty even overall though

Next 10 = C+ players (solid role guys - note Kennedy would have been 31, Noble would have been 36
31. Williams (Carl)
32. Mihocek (Coll)
33. Docherty (Carl)
34. Mitchell (Coll)
35. Lachie Fogarty (Carl)
36. Kemp (Carl)
37. Hoskin-Elliott (Coll)
38. Young (Carl)
39. Cox (Coll)
40. Frampton (Coll)
Again, it is 5xCollingwood and 5x Carlton. Very even in this category

Next 10 = C-graders (bottom 6 most weeks, but fairly likely to play - Richards would be 45, )
41. Hill (Coll)
42. Cincotta (Carl)
43. McCreery (Coll)
44. Silvagni (Carl)
45. Haynes (Carl)
46. McStay (Coll)
47. Markov (Coll)
48. Cottrell (Carl)
49. Hollands (Carl)
50. Fantasia (Carl)

In this category we go 6x Carlton and 4x Collingwood. So if you go all the way to best 50 combined- ie: the players likely to play each week give or take an injury or two - we land in exactly the same spot - 25 players on each list. That actually excludes Carlton's pick 3, who will likely slot in there somewhere

Even going to the next level of depth (likely to play quite a bit due to injury)
51. Dean (Coll)
52. Harrison (Coll)
53. Cowan (Carl)
54. Boyd (Carl)
55. Carroll (Carl)
56. Sullivan (Coll)
57. Binns (Carl)
58. Motlop (Carl)
59. Carmichael (Coll)
60. McRae (Coll)
We're still at 5-5 and the lists are looking pretty comparable

Basically, if you compare the lists with some attempt at objectivity they line up... very closely. Which isn't surprising because the teams finished the season equal and separated by %. You can make a case that Carlton are slightly ahead with injury dropping a few down the list, but could make an equal case that Collingwood had a 'down' year post-premiership.

Walsh at 5 rofl. The least impactful player in the league. How long since he has linked a goal. Walsh sits in the 10-20
Bracket.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Guess who?

View attachment 2148112

Curnow, finals record?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Walsh at 5 rofl. The least impactful player in the league. How long since he has linked a goal. Walsh sits in the 10-20
Bracket.

Walsh received more Coaches votes and Brownlow votes than any Collingwood player this season despite having a poor year by his standards.

If we're going on current form he's still miles better than Daisy Moore who hasn't defended an opponent all year lmao

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Curnow, finals record?

Curnow still went at a goal a game. Guess again

 

[South of the Yarra]

Shock horror - you think the players in the team you support are better than opposition? If I did the same list I'd probably end up similar the other way.

Let's try and use a more objective measure - the SI AFL player rankings (which compares players relative to position and across a range of measures) and see how it compares. Combined list

Top 10 - let's call these the A-graders
1. Cripps (Carl)
2. Daicos (Coll)
3. Houston (Coll)
4. Curnow (Carl)
5. Walsh (Carl)
6. Crisp (Coll)
7. Moore (Coll)
8. Weitering (Carl)
9. De Goey (Coll)
10. Hewett (Carl)
Top 10 is 5/5, with Houston obviously not having played a game but still ranking very high

Next 10 - lets call these the B+ players
11. Pendlebury (Coll)
12. Newman (Carl)
13. McKay (Carl)
14. Cameron (Coll)
15. J Daicos (Coll)
16. Saad (Carl)
17. De Koning (Carl)
18. E Hollands (Carl)
19. Cerra (Carl)
20. Howe (Coll)
Next 10 = 6x Carlton, 4x Collingwood

Next 10 is your solid B-graders
21. Acres (Carl)
22. Schultz (Coll)
23. Lipinski (Coll)
24. Sidebottom (Coll)
25. Maynard (Coll)
26. Quaynor (Coll)
27. Pittonet (Carl)
28. Perryman (Coll)
29. Elliott (Coll)
30. McGovern (Carl)
This set is 3x Carlton, 7x Collingwood and represents a 2024 weak spot for Carlton. This is where Docherty would likely be if fit, same with Williams, and ideally Martin (who is now gone from the list). It's still pretty even overall though

Next 10 = C+ players (solid role guys - note Kennedy would have been 31, Noble would have been 36
31. Williams (Carl)
32. Mihocek (Coll)
33. Docherty (Carl)
34. Mitchell (Coll)
35. Lachie Fogarty (Carl)
36. Kemp (Carl)
37. Hoskin-Elliott (Coll)
38. Young (Carl)
39. Cox (Coll)
40. Frampton (Coll)
Again, it is 5xCollingwood and 5x Carlton. Very even in this category

Next 10 = C-graders (bottom 6 most weeks, but fairly likely to play - Richards would be 45, )
41. Hill (Coll)
42. Cincotta (Carl)
43. McCreery (Coll)
44. Silvagni (Carl)
45. Haynes (Carl)
46. McStay (Coll)
47. Markov (Coll)
48. Cottrell (Carl)
49. Hollands (Carl)
50. Fantasia (Carl)

In this category we go 6x Carlton and 4x Collingwood. So if you go all the way to best 50 combined- ie: the players likely to play each week give or take an injury or two - we land in exactly the same spot - 25 players on each list. That actually excludes Carlton's pick 3, who will likely slot in there somewhere

Even going to the next level of depth (likely to play quite a bit due to injury)
51. Dean (Coll)
52. Harrison (Coll)
53. Cowan (Carl)
54. Boyd (Carl)
55. Carroll (Carl)
56. Sullivan (Coll)
57. Binns (Carl)
58. Motlop (Carl)
59. Carmichael (Coll)
60. McRae (Coll)
We're still at 5-5 and the lists are looking pretty comparable

Basically, if you compare the lists with some attempt at objectivity they line up... very closely. Which isn't surprising because the teams finished the season equal and separated by %. You can make a case that Carlton are slightly ahead with injury dropping a few down the list, but could make an equal case that Collingwood had a 'down' year post-premiership.

Hewett at 10. Oh for Gods sake

 

[Bale Dup]

Carlton aint beat Collingwood in a game that mattered for almost a decade.

But yeah...next year

Yeah 2025. You know, the thread title. If you want a thread where you talk about the past, make 1.

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[caloschwaby]

Carlton aint beat Collingwood in a game that mattered for almost a decade.

But yeah...next year

read and weep

 

[South of the Yarra]

Shock horror - you think the players in the team you support are better than opposition? If I did the same list I'd probably end up similar the other way.

Let's try and use a more objective measure - the SI AFL player rankings (which compares players relative to position and across a range of measures) and see how it compares. Combined list

Top 10 - let's call these the A-graders
1. Cripps (Carl)
2. Daicos (Coll)
3. Houston (Coll)
4. Curnow (Carl)
5. Walsh (Carl)
6. Crisp (Coll)
7. Moore (Coll)
8. Weitering (Carl)
9. De Goey (Coll)
10. Hewett (Carl)
Top 10 is 5/5, with Houston obviously not having played a game but still ranking very high

Next 10 - lets call these the B+ players
11. Pendlebury (Coll)
12. Newman (Carl)
13. McKay (Carl)
14. Cameron (Coll)
15. J Daicos (Coll)
16. Saad (Carl)
17. De Koning (Carl)
18. E Hollands (Carl)
19. Cerra (Carl)
20. Howe (Coll)
Next 10 = 6x Carlton, 4x Collingwood

Next 10 is your solid B-graders
21. Acres (Carl)
22. Schultz (Coll)
23. Lipinski (Coll)
24. Sidebottom (Coll)
25. Maynard (Coll)
26. Quaynor (Coll)
27. Pittonet (Carl)
28. Perryman (Coll)
29. Elliott (Coll)
30. McGovern (Carl)
This set is 3x Carlton, 7x Collingwood and represents a 2024 weak spot for Carlton. This is where Docherty would likely be if fit, same with Williams, and ideally Martin (who is now gone from the list). It's still pretty even overall though

Next 10 = C+ players (solid role guys - note Kennedy would have been 31, Noble would have been 36
31. Williams (Carl)
32. Mihocek (Coll)
33. Docherty (Carl)
34. Mitchell (Coll)
35. Lachie Fogarty (Carl)
36. Kemp (Carl)
37. Hoskin-Elliott (Coll)
38. Young (Carl)
39. Cox (Coll)
40. Frampton (Coll)
Again, it is 5xCollingwood and 5x Carlton. Very even in this category

Next 10 = C-graders (bottom 6 most weeks, but fairly likely to play - Richards would be 45, )
41. Hill (Coll)
42. Cincotta (Carl)
43. McCreery (Coll)
44. Silvagni (Carl)
45. Haynes (Carl)
46. McStay (Coll)
47. Markov (Coll)
48. Cottrell (Carl)
49. Hollands (Carl)
50. Fantasia (Carl)

In this category we go 6x Carlton and 4x Collingwood. So if you go all the way to best 50 combined- ie: the players likely to play each week give or take an injury or two - we land in exactly the same spot - 25 players on each list. That actually excludes Carlton's pick 3, who will likely slot in there somewhere

Even going to the next level of depth (likely to play quite a bit due to injury)
51. Dean (Coll)
52. Harrison (Coll)
53. Cowan (Carl)
54. Boyd (Carl)
55. Carroll (Carl)
56. Sullivan (Coll)
57. Binns (Carl)
58. Motlop (Carl)
59. Carmichael (Coll)
60. McRae (Coll)
We're still at 5-5 and the lists are looking pretty comparable

Basically, if you compare the lists with some attempt at objectivity they line up... very closely. Which isn't surprising because the teams finished the season equal and separated by %. You can make a case that Carlton are slightly ahead with injury dropping a few down the list, but could make an equal case that Collingwood had a 'down' year post-premiership.

Maynard an All Australian at 25 and Holllands and Cerra above him. This gets better.

 

[Worm4]

If I were picking a squad for 2025, here is the order of players I would pick from the respective teams, based on expected performance, durability, leadership and versatility:
View attachment 2148086

I went down to Collingwood's 23rd player, and worked out how many Carlton players I would pick ahead of who would be in Collingwood's best team.

One of these two teams has the list quality and depth to potentially be a premiership contender in 2025, and the other doesn't.

Lol. You are being serious with this. Did Collingwood finish top 4 and Carlton bottom 4 in 2024 ? Most biased list I think I have ever come across in this thread.
To start with, you have a dual brownlow medalist not even in the top spot. Can't get any more biased than that

 

[Fadge]

Yeah, the main issue Fadge is that you overvalue your players and undervalue ours, so nice graph, but means sfa.
Your values, for your players are based on what they've done in years gone by and for most of them there's a lot of years gone by. As far as I can tell you believe your oldies will continue to operate at past levels. Hmm. We'll see.

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Nah. If i was assuming Collingwood's older players will continue to operate at past levels, I would have had Pendlebury at #2, just behind Daicos, for a start.