Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[I wanna pash Nash]

Both could win it. Both could miss the 8. It's that kind of comp currently. West Coast seem to think Carlton.

I do think Hawthorn are more evenly spread across the list, but, lack the amount of high end talent at the Blues. That's good and bad. Carlton stay fit and they'll go deep. If they cop a few injuries to their top 6 and they might wobble.

I think Hawthorn has more players that could take the next step, and bridge that top end talent gap. Players like Day, Jai and Scrimshaw could become serious AA calibre players next year. I'm sure Carlton have theirs too.

 

[adammania9]

Still plenty more years left in the tank for most of them. While we're not as young as the Hawks, we definitely don't have a terrible age demographic like the Pies currently.

Age demographics aren’t an overly relevant metric when determining which side could be a premiership contender. Quality of list is more relevant and unfortunately Carlton’s falls well short of what a list should look like if it wants to win a premiership

 

[adock]

I think Carlton should be well ahead based on personnel, should have finished top 4 this year. They need some luck with injuries but the clock is ticking.

Hawks I'm unsure. I'm not sold yet because i don't think anyone really went to work on them until it was too late. Their list on paper doesn't excite me but if they play like they did in the 2nd half of this year, all next year i will be proven wrong. They only won 1 final against the dogs who didn't show up. Then lost to Port who were soundly beaten in both of their other 2 finals. I'm not sure its great form.

 

[Seattle Mariners]

Carlton have more talent than Hawthorn and will therefore finish higher. Injury permitted.

 

[Obeanie1]

What does pick 3 have to do with where either team will finish next year?

Because top picks like 3 often impact in their 1st season if they are mids.

 

[Fadge]

Carlton have more talent than Hawthorn and will therefore finish higher. Injury permitted.

Take a look past each team's best 6 players.

You might be surprised...

 

[Obeanie1]

Blues have the worst 'bottom 6' best 23 of any of the contending sides.

That gets worse now with Kennedy and Owies gone.

They desperately need the big 6 at the top to stay fit, or else I see a repeat of 2024 as a best csde scenario.

But if a few new players come along for the ride and boost that bottom end then I'd say top 4 should be in their vision.

Hawthorn should be aiming, at a minimum, to equal this seasons finish of a semi final appearance.

Let's do a list and then compare the bottom 6 in each side.

Should compare the top 6 as well to be fair.

 

[Fadge]

Let's do a list and then compare the bottom 6 in each side.

Should compare the top 6 as well to be fair.

Pick the best 30 players across both teams, and you'll find 18 of them will be Hawthorn, as is the case with all the teams who can genuinely contend for the 2025 flag.

 

[Robertio]

Pick the best 30 players across both teams, and you'll find 18 of them will be Hawthorn, as is the case with all the teams who can genuinely contend for the 2025 flag.

His best 30 players would be vastly different to yours, he doesn't seem to have an agenda.

 

[Obeanie1]

Pick the best 30 players across both teams, and you'll find 18 of them will be Hawthorn, as is the case with all the teams who can genuinely contend for the 2025 flag.

I look at the Hawks side and simply do not see the top end talent other teams have. Especially in the midfield.

Newcombe MSD pick 1 v Cripps
Day v Walsh
Sicily v Weitering
Lewis v Curnow

There are the top 4 and I have Carlton comfortably ahead.

D'Ambrossia v Saad. Even?

 

[Fadge]

I look at the Hawks side and simply do not see the top end talent other teams have. Especially in the midfield.

Newcombe MSD pick 1 v Cripps
Day v Walsh
Sicily v Weitering
Lewis v Curnow

There are the top 4 and I have Carlton comfortably ahead.

D'Ambrossia v Saad. Even?

Do the exercise I suggested - you'll surprise yourself.

My first comment was also to look beyond Carlton's top 6 - they would have one of the best, if not the best, top 6 in the game (at least on paper).

But we're playing AFL, not NBA.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Do the exercise I suggested - you'll surprise yourself.

My first comment was also to look beyond Carlton's top 6 - they would have one of the best, if not the best, top 6 in the game (at least on paper).

But we're playing AFL, not NBA.

Let's see your list first Fudgey

 

[Obeanie1]

Do the exercise I suggested - you'll surprise yourself.

My first comment was also to look beyond Carlton's top 6 - they would have one of the best, if not the best, top 6 in the game (at least on paper).

But we're playing AFL, not NBA.

Your the one making statements without backing them up.

If one teams top six aren't up to the other teams top 6 we'll that's a pretty big issue when comparing the two lists.

Once you get past 10 it's into role players. And role players don't win flags. The top 6 impact players do.

 

[Fadge]

Your the one making statements without backing them up.

If one teams top six aren't up to the other teams top 6 we'll that's a pretty big issue when comparing the two lists.

Once you get past 10 it's into role players. And role players don't win flags. The top 6 impact players do.

Oh, that would be why Carlton have been so successful over recent times, given they have arguably the best top 6 players of all teams in the competition (on paper)...

I will do it later on, but for a start both Newcombe and Day are ahead of Walsh, and Sicily ahead of McKay, so it's not as if Carlton have the best 6 players across both teams and we start from there...

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Your the one making statements without backing them up.

If one teams top six aren't up to the other teams top 6 we'll that's a pretty big issue when comparing the two lists.

Once you get past 10 it's into role players. And role players don't win flags. The top 6 impact players do.

Only if that top 6 is surrounded by the right role players imo.

Carlton hasn't had the role players we need to compliment our top end either through injury availability or just a lack of options within the list the last few years.

Get the role players fit and working together and the stars can shine, as we saw when we had a good bill of health and form late in 2023. Have had to move a few glass bodies on this off season though so will be interesting to see who takes their spots in the team and how well they compliment the players above them.

 

[LFTWNG11]

Hawthorn's depth in 2025 is going to be scary.

Outside of CHF/FF we have multiple players jostling for every position.
Even the key forward posts will have pressure on them next year with Sicily and Battle both likely to rotate through to support Chol and Dear (until Lewis regains fitness).

Down back we obviously have Barrass and Battle coming in, but also Blanck back from his knee and McCabe with another pre-season.

The midfield mix in round 1 will be very interesting. Day and Newcombe (and Meek) are definite starters, but beyond that who can say out of Worpel, Nash, Mackenzie, Ward, Maginness and even MacDonald who will have time in there.

Finally, what do we do with Weddle? HBF? Wing? HFF? Ruck Rover?
Kid could play anywhere and be anything.

Carlton's team on the other hand has way too much reliance on too few players.
Significant time out of the side for any of Cripps, Weitering, Curnow, TDK or McKay will put them in a dangerous position.
Walsh, Cerra and the Hollands brothers are all great young players but a step below the above (Walsh should be up there, but 2024 was not his best year).
The team seems unbalanced and relies too much on the stars, and a lot of the other very good role players are getting on a bit now - Saad, Docherty, McGovern, Newman and Williams all on the wrong side of 30.

Based on this post, let’s just hand the cup to Hawks now?

Hawks will finish higher than Carlton but I don’t think that says much because Vossy will be lucky to survive the year.

 

[adammania9]

Your the one making statements without backing them up.

If one teams top six aren't up to the other teams top 6 we'll that's a pretty big issue when comparing the two lists.

Once you get past 10 it's into role players. And role players don't win flags. The top 6 impact players do.

Is this true? It just about goes against everything we’ve established about list management in recent years. Talent wins games. Depth wins flags.

How did Hawthorn finish above Carlton this year with lesser top players?

 

[Worm4]

Stop polluting the thread mr know-it-all

 

[Worm4]

Your the one making statements without backing them up.

If one teams top six aren't up to the other teams top 6 we'll that's a pretty big issue when comparing the two lists.

Once you get past 10 it's into role players. And role players don't win flags. The top 6 impact players do.

Fadge runs his own ship, and who are we to disagree with Fadge ?

 

[T2B_]

Toss of the coin really.

As an aside I feel like Pie supporters should be banned from this thread given there's an entire thread with us and them

 

[NetworkNerd]

According to DraftGuru, for 2025 Carlton have 8 players rated B+ to A+. Hawthorn have 7

Cripps - A+
McKay - A
Weitering - A
Curnow - A
Walsh - A
Newman - B+
Cerra - B+
DeKoning - B+

Newcombe - A
Sicily - A
Moore - A
Worpel - B+
Day - B+
Breust - B+
D'Ambrosio - B+

If we take these 15 as part of the combined top 30, then we just have to get the next 15 on the list

 

[T2B_]

According to DraftGuru, for 2025 Carlton have 8 players rated B+ to A+. Hawthorn have 7

Cripps - A+
McKay - A
Weitering - A
Curnow - A
Walsh - A
Newman - B+
Cerra - B+
DeKoning - B+

Newcombe - A
Sicily - A
Moore - A
Worpel - B+
Day - B+
Breust - B+
D'Ambrosio - B+

If we take these 15 as part of the combined top 30, then we just have to get the next 15 on the list

Day would probably be A if not for injuries. I know, if my aunty had balls etc.

 

[carlton_99]

Day would probably be A if not for injuries. I know, if my aunty had balls etc.

Was gonna say feel like he should be an A but I don't know what they are basing this off

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I look at the Hawks side and simply do not see the top end talent other teams have. Especially in the midfield.

That says more about you than Hawthorn, to be honest.

 

[Robertio]

Oh, that would be why Carlton have been so successful over recent times, given they have arguably the best top 6 players of all teams in the competition (on paper)...

I will do it later on, but for a start both Newcombe and Day are ahead of Walsh, and Sicily ahead of McKay, so it's not as if Carlton have the best 6 players across both teams and we start from there...

Mate just take your rubbish back to the other thread .