Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Blackhawk42]

Suns have Anderson, Rowell and Miller.

All three would be the equal to Newcombe in output.

Cats. He may just pip Dangerfield due to age. And the other Geelong mids are either younger developing mids or old on their last legs. They only just picked up Bailey Smith who is well up there in quality if he can regain his form pre ACL.

The best Newcombe comparison is actually Chad Warner.

The deep dive is over on the polls board, which is recommended reading. Age, statistical averages, individual accolades etc etc are all amazingly even.

Personally, I'd take Warner and Newcombe collectively over Rowell and Anderson purely from an impact point of view.

Newcombe now has career best form leading into and during a finals series in his back pocket as well. Something Anderson and Rowell in particular aren't able to claim.

 

[Iceman!]

Walsh has played how many full seasons of late? Bit easier to go well in a BnF when you've stayed on the park consistently.

But going back, statistically how is Newcombe or Day ahead of Walsh? Even in a down year Walsh beats them on nearly every critical measure there is for a mid.

I am not going to say it is clear or anything i rate them both highly but what stats?

Comparing them this year Newc has him covered in goals, goal assists, way higher in disposal efficiency, clearances. I would say they are all pretty critical areas for a mid.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I agree very different players. I'm big on Newcombe and funnily enough even bigger on Day. If he gets a clean run at it he can be a top 10 player in the competition - oozes class.

I was somewhat surprised that Day beat Newcombe in our 2023 best and fairest, however it probably showed just how much potential Will has, doing so in his first ever season as a midfielder.

He likely could have gone back to back if he'd played a full season as well, because his good games this year were eye-catchingly good.

 

[Fadge]

Just on the bolded - there are people that keep saying this but it is completely fabricated.

It is FAR easier to get votes on winning, succesful teams (even when you have good team mates) than it is to get votes on poor teams.

Look at the Brownlow winners for however long you like. The overwhelming majority come from finalists - and usually top 4 teams with multiple good players.

Look at the top 5 of every Brownlow year - it's dominated by teams at the top of the ladder - not by "standout players in poor teams".

The only non finalist winners in the last 20 odd years are the aboslute cream players as well - guys like peak Ablett Jnr, peak Fyfe, etc.

Winning sides dominate the votes. Look at every players vote tally and you will see that nearly everyone gets 90%+ of the votes when their side wins.

The notion that it is easier to get votes in a poor side is probably the biggest furphy in football.

Absolutely spot on.

Fancy challenging me with the question 'Who did Newcombe compete with for Brownlow votes?'

How about the opposition players from teams that won 35 of the first 50 games over the three year period I referenced?

Walsh didn't seem to have any problems capturing the attention of the umpires with his 30 vote 2021. Cripps mustn't have played that year...

 

[Obeanie1]

Did you ignore my reference to club best and fairests?

'What would the players' coaches know?'...

No I didn't. It isn't relevant though. As explained. I'll explain it again.

Are you competing against other clubs mids in your clubs Best and Fairest?

No, you aren't.

So is a B&F at one club better or worst than the B&F at another club? You don't know unless you start comparing the two players directly.

A club with a weaker list may have a B&F who wouldn't even make the top 3 at a club with a stronger list.

Example: How would Newcombe go at the B&F he played for the Lions? All things being equal on the injury / fitness front would he finish ahead of Neale, Zorko or Dunckley?

 

[Obeanie1]

The best Newcombe comparison is actually Chad Warner.

The deep dive is over on the polls board, which is recommended reading. Age, statistical averages, individual accolades etc etc are all amazingly even.

Personally, I'd take Warner and Newcombe collectively over Rowell and Anderson purely from an impact point of view.

Newcombe now has career best form leading into and during a finals series in his back pocket as well. Something Anderson and Rowell in particular aren't able to claim.

Does Newcombe play half forward / mid?

My recollection is he is more of an inside mid.



Well I will admit the above was closer than I expected. Expected Newcombe to have more possessions due to time on ball and attending more center bounces.

Below is the 2024 season.





Again very similar stats. Chad has more M's gained. Newcombe more Centre Clearances. Which makes sense.

 

[Fadge]

No I didn't. It isn't relevant though. As explained. I'll explain it again.

Are you competing against other clubs mids in your clubs Best and Fairest?

No, you aren't.

So is a B&F at one club better or worst than the B&F at another club? You don't know unless you start comparing the two players directly.

A club with a weaker list may have a B&F who wouldn't even make the top 3 at a club with a stronger list.

Example: How would Newcombe go at the B&F he played for the Lions? All things being equal on the injury / fitness front would he finish ahead of Neale, Zorko or Dunckley?

Newcombe would go better than Walsh would in any club best and fairest over the past three seasons, because he has performed better over that time.

 

[Obeanie1]

Newcombe would go better than Walsh would in any club best and fairest over the past three seasons, because he has performed better over that time.

And Cripps? The 2 x Brownlow winner?

Newcombe had very similar 2024 to Warner.




Where would he finish at the Swans B&F?

 

[Fadge]

Where would he finish at the Swans B&F?

Ahead of Walsh if they both played for the Swans, in each of the past 3 years.

 

[TheFourPillars]

And Cripps? The 2 x Brownlow winner?

Newcombe had very similar 2024 to Warner.


View attachment 2150280

Where would he finish at the Swans B&F?

4th

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Just list what team you believe Newcombe would be the #1 mid at. Simple.

We are comparing the Hawks best mid to other teams best mid. Not how a Hawks player compared at a B&F competing against his own teammates. Not relevant.

Being a decent player compared to your own teammates doesn't win football games or flags does it? You need to be better than your opposition. I'm pretty sure I understand that quite well enough.

He’d be the number 1 mid at your club by a margin, for starters.

Amazing last couple of pages of you backflipping after stating a guy who’s finished top 2 in his clubs best and fairest for the last 3 years isn’t “consistent”.

But then again you’re the same poster that argued a few years ago that Sicily returning form his ACL wouldn’t improve us either, so talent identification isn’t really a strong suit of yours.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Always willing to make ridiculous statements and predictions but never willing to put anything at stake.
Just brainless trolling as always.

Neither Newcombe nor Day have reached the level Walsh has as individual players. All Australians, Gary Ayers, Coaches votes in a season, Brownlow votes in a season, Walsh has consistently been the better player throughout their careers.

All 3 are fantastic players but when they're all fit and playing at their best the two Hawthorn boys aren't on the same level.

Happy to back that if Walsh has a full pre season he's the best midfielder not named Cripps between the two teams in 2025.

Do you have any statistics to back this up? Or just more of the 'vibe' as always... Statistically Walsh is miles ahead of both.

Walsh has played how many full seasons of late? Bit easier to go well in a BnF when you've stayed on the park consistently.

But going back, statistically how is Newcombe or Day ahead of Walsh? Even in a down year Walsh beats them on nearly every critical measure there is for a mid.

It's not an argument I would make (i.e. Newcombe>Walsh) as I really rate Walsh but I'm not sure your claims about Walsh being miles ahead or having a better season in a down year actually stack up.

Over the last 2 seasons, Newcombe has earnt 147 Coaches votes to Walsh's 111 (inclusive of Gary Ayers votes)
Newcombe has picked up 42 Brownlow votes to Walsh's 21.
Yes, Walsh has missed a handful of games but Newcombe leads both categories in averages too.
I'm not a fan of player ratings at all, but Newcombe has been ahead the last 3 seasons (before which was his debut year as a mid season draftee)

Not sure Walsh is "statistically miles ahead" either. In 2024, Walsh got more of the ball, more metres gained, more inside 50's and more score involvements (6.7 to 6.5). Newcombe got more contested ball, more clearances/centre clearances, more goals, more assists, more marks (and contested marks) and much better disposal efficiency. What the stats say is that Walsh gets the ball more often (28 vs 24) but tends to use it much more poorly when he does, hence effective disposals being less, disposal efficiency over 10% worse and kicking efficiency over 15% worse.