Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Osho]

Blues:
-effort and class mix. It's reliant on the prior to make up for the latter.

Hawks:
-sophomore doldrums. Everyone's had a look, now.
-the coach and skipper are rippers, but they shouldn't sook it up everytime someone does the airplane dance in 2025.

 

[peetoo]

Blues:
-effort and class mix. It's reliant on the prior to make up for the latter.

Hawks:
-sophomore doldrums. Everyone's had a look, now.
-the coach and skipper are rippers, but they shouldn't sook it up everytime someone does the airplane dance in 2025.

With respect, that tells me nothing in relation to the title

 

[TheFourPillars]

Blues:
-effort and class mix. It's reliant on the prior to make up for the latter.

Hawks:
-sophomore doldrums. Everyone's had a look, now.
-the coach and skipper are rippers, but they shouldn't sook it up everytime someone does the airplane dance in 2025.

Oh don't worry there will plenty of aeroplane celebrations similar to the sheedy and his antics hawthorn never forget.

 

[RCAB]

Tell us, what was wrong with our game plan?

And here in lies proof this poster can't remember more than a day's worth of information.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

And here in lies proof this poster can't remember more than a day's worth of information.

I can, I just want to hear it from an opposition supporters perspective

 

[doppleganger]

The main issue I see with Carlton is their reductive and simplistic way of looking at their trajectory.

Their trajectory has them already going backwards.

2021 8 wins % of 88
2022 12 wins % of 108
2023 13 wins % of 116 + 2 finals wins
2024 13 wins % of 110

They essentially reduce everything to, “Well, we were injured last year, we’ve added one or two pieces, and now we’ll be much better and win the premiership,” with no real discussion about how they’ll address their game plan, which was a massive Achilles heel last year.

They’re in for a rude awakening.

Unless you consider pick 3 a piece for 2025, they haven't really added anything.

Hawks have added pieces, and they went past Carlton in 2024.

 

[Fadge]

Their trajectory has them already going backwards.

2021 8 wins % of 88
2022 12 wins % of 108
2023 13 wins % of 116 + 2 finals wins
2024 13 wins % of 110


Unless you consider pick 3 a piece for 2025, they haven't really added anything.

Hawks have added pieces, and they went past Hawks in 2024.

Yep.

Appears they've peaked at a 5th place finish in 2023, given they replaced 5 mature best 22 players (who were all available when Carlton were at their peak) with Haynes and a handful of 18 year olds.

Strange list management approach given Cripps, Charlie, Weitering, Harry, Walsh and TDK are all in their absolute prime years.

 

[doppleganger]

And here in lies proof this poster can't remember more than a day's worth of information.

Walsh is good value.

Lucky this thread isn't clogged up by other Baggers trolling about 1970 VFL era footy

 

[carlton_99]

And here in lies proof this poster can't remember more than a day's worth of information.

What have you actually said were the issues with our game plan? You mentioned how zoning can cut off our ball movement from D50 to the corridor but this is very generic and applies to literally every team in the competition.

 

[RCAB]

What have you actually said were the issues with our game plan? You mentioned how zoning can cut off our ball movement from D50 to the corridor but this is very generic and applies to literally every team in the competition.

That not what I said. Read it again or don't bother replying unless you want to make yourself look bad.

 

[carlton_99]

That not what I said. Read it again or don't bother replying unless you want to make yourself look bad.

What concerns me the most about Carlton is their gamestyle. It looks good when on, but too often in the back half of season it was caught out. The fast transition from d50 to centre/corridor can easily be cut off with good zoning. I don't think having all personnel available will magically make it better.

 

[The 747]

Hawthorn. Carlton are pretenders

 

[RCAB]

Dear me carlton_99 your read that twice and still misrepresented it.

 

[carlton_99]

Dear me carlton_99 your read that twice and still misrepresented it.

Please explain how I have misrepresented your comment.

 

[Kenny Hunter09]

Dear me carlton_99 your read that twice and still misrepresented it.

I've read it three times, and still interpret it the way carlton_99 has. If you didn't intend for your statement to have the meaning as it is written, how did you mean it. Is there a sub text we're not picking up? Hidden code? Really fine print?

 

[RCAB]

I've read it three times, and still interpret it the way carlton_99 has. If you didn't intend for your statement to have the meaning as it is written, how did you mean it. Is there a sub text we're not picking up? Hidden code? Really fine print?

Are you new to AFL football?

It's obviously contextual, I didn't think I NEEDED to spell everything out on a football forum.

One of you Carlton supporters understood and actually gave a good reply a couple of days ago.

It's obvious the statement suggests Carlton is one of the poorest teams and moving the ball quick out of D50. Yes, all teams zone we don't need to repeat this. I'm guessing you're just trolling as you can't be this football illiterate on a football forum.

 

[carlton_99]

Are you new to AFL football?

It's obviously contextual, I didn't think I NEEDED to spell everything out on a football forum.

One of you Carlton supporters understood and actually gave a good reply a couple of days ago.

It's obvious the statement suggests Carlton is one of the poorest teams and moving the ball quick out of D50. Yes, all teams zone we don't need to repeat this. I'm guessing you're just trolling as you can't be this football illiterate on a football forum.

The tone is a bit unnecessary.

But on your point yes our movement at times from D50 has been poor but I never sensed a change in that between the first half of the year and the second (i.e., when we were playing well and when we weren't). Thought the biggest change between the two was our forward half pressure which is less about game plan and more about individual players not executing their role well enough.

I also think the changes we made in the off-season will help balance out another key area that needs to be improved which is the midfield. Too many slow, contested ball hunters with Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy in there. With Kennedy gone, Cerra and Smith in as well as potentially some increased midfield minutes for E.Hollands I think that group looks a lot more balanced when it comes to winning the ball but also being able to effectively spread from stoppage.

So I agree we can't just bank on a better run with injuries that may or may not come to improve. But I do think some key personnel changes in the off-season could have a significant impact on the balance of the "best 23" and therefore our overall performance.

 

[bradfisher14]

It's obvious the statement suggests Carlton is one of the poorest teams and moving the ball quick out of D50.

Are you basing this purely on eye-test? Here are some statistics from Season 2024 that debunk your statement.

Scores from turnover:

• 4th - Carlton - 52.0
• 8th - Hawthorn - 49.0

Scores from D50:

• 9th - Hawthorn - 33.6
• 10th - Carlton - 33.5

Source:

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Are you new to AFL football?

It's obviously contextual, I didn't think I NEEDED to spell everything out on a football forum.

One of you Carlton supporters understood and actually gave a good reply a couple of days ago.

It's obvious the statement suggests Carlton is one of the poorest teams and moving the ball quick out of D50. Yes, all teams zone we don't need to repeat this. I'm guessing you're just trolling as you can't be this football illiterate on a football forum.

We were also in the top two teams at defending turnover and scoring from turnover for much of the year. Not sure where we finished, think it may have been 4th and 5th from memory.

Are the Hawks without fault with their incredible super genius Sam Mitchell? Geelong with Chris Scott?

Every team has strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes flaws can be exposed more than others, but every team still has chinks in their armour.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Are you basing this purely on eye-test? Here are some statistics from Season 2024 that debunk your statement.

Scores from turnover:

• 4th - Carlton - 52.0
• 8th - Hawthorn - 49.0

Scores from D50:

• 9th - Hawthorn - 33.6
• 10th - Carlton - 33.5

Source:

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

Can't wait to see his explanation of that lmao

 

[carlton_99]

Are you basing this purely on eye-test? Here are some statistics from Season 2024 that debunk your statement.

Scores from turnover:

• 4th - Carlton - 52.0
• 8th - Hawthorn - 49.0

Scores from D50:

• 9th - Hawthorn - 33.6
• 10th - Carlton - 33.5

Source:

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

Yep Carlton were a good turnover team in 2024. Something they have never really exceled at. Biggest drop off was with defending stoppage (1st in 2023 to 16th in 2024) which is where I think some personnel changes help.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Yep Carlton were a good turnover team in 2024. Something they have never really exceled at. Biggest drop off was with defending stoppage (1st in 2023 to 16th in 2024) which is where I think some personnel changes help.

Cerra being healthy would make a big difference to that area.

 

[RCAB]

The tone is a bit unnecessary.

But on your point yes our movement at times from D50 has been poor but I never sensed a change in that between the first half of the year and the second (i.e., when we were playing well and when we weren't). Thought the biggest change between the two was our forward half pressure which is less about game plan and more about individual players not executing their role well enough.

I also think the changes we made in the off-season will help balance out another key area that needs to be improved which is the midfield. Too many slow, contested ball hunters with Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy in there. With Kennedy gone, Cerra and Smith in as well as potentially some increased midfield minutes for E.Hollands I think that group looks a lot more balanced when it comes to winning the ball but also being able to effectively spread from stoppage.

So I agree we can't just bank on a better run with injuries that may or may not come to improve. But I do think some key personnel changes in the off-season could have a significant impact on the balance of the "best 23" and therefore our overall performance.

Forwards/Mids and defenders are all connected. The game has changed drastically over the decades and players are asked to run in cohesive patterns or otherwise opposition zones will force costly turnovers.

So you agree that part of your problem is that your midfield is a little one paced to help connect with that drive from D50.

Maybe we'll see some improvement with E.Hollands and he gets fitter, better linking Carlton through his ball use. I'm not sure we'll see any more improvement in Cerra and his disposal is not line busting, I'm not seeing how Carlton fix this issue, unless Voss will drastically change his gameplan and personnel. He seems pretty content at the moment so I wouldn't expect any drastic changes.

Do you think Voss will make massive changes to the gameplan this season or just minor tweaks?

 

[carlton_99]

Cerra being healthy would make a big difference to that area.

Yep getting him fit is massive for us. Our best two-way mid imo. Getting him and Walsh together again at stoppage should improve this area massively.

 

[carlton_99]

Forwards/Mids and defenders are all connected. The game has changed drastically over the decades and players are asked to run in cohesive patterns or otherwise opposition zones will force costly turnovers.

So you agree that part of your problem is that your midfield is a little one paced to help connect with that drive from D50.

Maybe we'll see some improvement with E.Hollands and he gets fitter, better linking Carlton through his ball use. I'm not sure we'll see any more improvement in Cerra and his disposal is not line busting, I'm not seeing how Carlton fix this issue, unless Voss will drastically change his gameplan and personnel. He seems pretty content at the moment so I wouldn't expect any drastic changes.

Do you think Voss will make massive changes to the gameplan this season or just minor tweaks?

I have said multiple times in this thread that our midfield wasn't balanced in 2024. Cripps/Kennedy/Hewett made us too one paced. Even Carroll who played a bunch of games was very similar. However, I do worry less about raw pace and more about spread when it comes to the midfield. Those types of players are great to win the ball at stoppage but when you don't they can become a liability because they struggle to then get outside of the immediate contest. Cerra and Walsh are very strong in this area.

So with Kennedy gone, Cerra hopefully back + Smith who is known for his ability to get from inside to outside it immediately balances up that midfield more. So if we do lose stoppage we should be able to get more delay on the ball as they can effectively spread from the contest and prevent as many clean inside 50 entries as we did in 2024. This is especially important for Carlton because we don't really play two traditional KPDs unless Young is in there.

Not quite understanding why we wouldn't get improvement from Cerra if he stays fit. His 2023 was great and was one of the main reasons our midfield was arguably the best in the competition. Took a step back without him largely there in 2024. Cerra also has very good disposal forward of centre which should help us when going inside 50. Smith's speed compared to Kennedy should also provide us with more options exiting forward from the stoppage as well which helps with our midfield-forward connection.

If you are talking only about defence-midfield connection then I think there are some role changes that can occur especially with Newman now out for the season that could shift this. We can either use Boyd in that role who is one of the best kicks in the league and consistently looks for the option in the corridor. Or we can use Boyd more lockdown and allow Saad to be more that offensive line-breaking type he was previously. Will be interesting to see which way they go because there are positives and negatives either way. We are also playing O.Hollands there now who has that speed off HB which should give us some more drive from that position.

Overall, I don't think "massive" changes need to be made to the game plan at all. However, personnel-wise I do think some changes need to be made including the ones I listed above to balance out the 23 more. Players also need to be stronger mentally when it gets tough. Forward half pressure for instance, can't just drop off that significantly because we copped the injuries we did. This was imo the biggest difference between good Carlton and bad Carlton in 2024.