Banter Who will be Better in 2025, Collingwood or Carlton? Part 4

[Fadge]

one of the first things one does when building a portfolio is to understand the concept of 'duration' - I'm pretty relaxed about what Carlton decided to go with ..

It has taken a long time to make up for the midfield misses that SOS made at Carlton in Dow/SPS/oBrien/Cuningham/Philp etc etc

Those misses offset the wins in Curnow/McKay/TDK and Weitering the lucky/unlucky Walsh and forced acquisiion of Cerra only partially made uop for the fails

I see the addition of Young/E.Hollands/Lord/Camporeles as building a longer duration portfolio which shoudl extend the number of years Carlton can play competitively for periods way beyond what was previously possible.

Collingwood have a shorter duration portfolio - they may or may not contend this year- but the facts are that teh Club will have to scramble to stay competitive whilst carrying higher risk due to the age profile of the list - even on a 3 year view.

A risk adjusted expected return matrix sees Cartlon in a better position than Colingwood over a near term horison - say 2-4 years.

This year is a tooss of the coin.

When you say 'Young', I assume you mean Jagga?

Nonetheless, Carlton's time is now with their best players in their prime.

And they decided to take a step backwards whilst many other clubs have materially improved their list in the off season.

The decision Carlton made strikes me as a club that is scared to return to the depths they have experienced on multiple occasions this century - multiple consecutive years in the bottom two, and also as a team that don't appreciate the risks that need to be taken to get the list into a position to be a genuine premiership contender.

Sure they will be 'competitive', but the list is still a long way from where it needs to be to genuinely contend for the premiership.

 

[Worm4]

I'm convinced the only footy you guys played was during lunchtime at school with your bestie, Falcon.

At least we didn't play abacus with Mr meow behind the shelter sheds

 

[Fadge]

At least we didn't play abacus with Mr meow behind the shelter sheds

Meow and I had great fun predicting how well our clubs were going to perform in the 21st century, and how shite Carlton were going to be...

 

[Worm4]

Give it up.

Mcstay has materially influenced a handful of finals throughout his career, which is a handful more than McKay and Curnow combined.

And that includes his only two finals as a Collingwood player.

Maybe take your own advice
"Give it up "
Oh boy , have you ever....

 

[JustaBattler]

When you say 'Young', I assume you mean Jagga?

Nonetheless, Carlton's time is now with their best players in their prime.

And they decided to take a step backwards whilst many other clubs have materially improved their list in the off season.

The decision Carlton made strikes me as a club that is scared to return to the depths they have experienced on multiple occasions this century - multiple consecutive years in the bottom two, and also as a team that don't appreciate the risks that need to be taken to get the list into a position to be a genuine premiership contender.

Sure they will be 'competitive', but the list is still a long way from where it needs to be to genuinely contend for the premiership.

You cant conflate Carlton's 'now' with Collingwood's 'now' - well you can but as I explained to you above the numbers dont stack up on a risk adjusted basis. ie Carlton's 'now' is likely to be 2-3X longer than Collingwood'd now.

adding ( yes Smith) and quite a few other developing quality players to Carlton's list extends the duration even longer.

Of course no guarantees - but the set-up is logical and rational - a huge deviation form the nuffery that was going on at teh Club which was run by a pack of macaonis for far too long. Even the best management takes time to execute.

Liek I said- for reasons stated- I'm relaxed and comfortable about teh set up.

As fo 2025 - I think you are miscalculating the impact of a possible much improved health in teh Carlton list - even if you just give Curnow a tick that makes a big difference- if Walsh and Cerra can get back to prime condition - along with TDK - the midfield is pretty stacked - if indocators are true and Smith can run as well as Walsh - Carlton finally get a two pronged runnign capacity to add to the bulls.

I wouldnt be dismissive of these factors.

 

[Fadge]

You cant conflate Carlton's 'now' with Collingwood's 'now' - well you can but as I explained to you above the numbers dont stack up on a risk adjusted basis. ie Carlton's 'now' is likely to be 2-3X longer than Collingwood'd now.

adding ( yes Smith) and quite a few other developing quality players to Carlton's list extends the duration even longer.

Of course no guarantees - but the set-up is logical and rational - a huge deviation form the nuffery that was going on at teh Club which was run by a pack of macaonis for far too long. Even the best management takes time to execute.

Liek I said- for reasons stated- I'm relaxed and comfortable about teh set up.

As fo 2025 - I think you are miscalculating the impact of a possible much improved health in teh Carlton list - even if you just give Curnow a tick that makes a big difference- if Walsh and Cerra can get back to prime condition - along with TDK - the midfield is pretty stacked - if indocators are true and Smith can run as well as Walsh - Carlton finally get a two pronged runnign capacity to add to the bulls.

I wouldnt be dismissive of these factors.

So if absolutely everything goes right for Carlton they have the potential to contend?

But it never does, for any club in the competition.

It has been highlighted that Carlton had a decent run with injury from their top 6 players - from memory they played 85% of games? That's about as good as any club can expect.

God help them if they lose any of Cripps, Weitering, Curnow or TDK for any extended period of time...

Further, Carlton's 'Now' is levels below Collingwood's 'Now'. Collingwood have proven they have what it takes to contend for a premiership, and have materially improved their list in the off season. The current iteration of this Carlton team is yet to contend for a premiership, with the list taking a step back in the off season, giving up two players who played 47 of a possible 48 games between them, and replacing them with Haynes and a bunch of 18 year olds.

 

[Worm4]

You mean "The Club"? Great play, film was OK.

Not sure if the Pies win in the film, I think it ends with a prelim win.

We felt tortured by a 32 year drought. How long is Carltons dry spell? Nearly there!

Didn't they beat , of all teams, Fitzroy in the GF ?

 

[Arr0w]

Pie supporters still thinking they are a powerhouse contender, hilarious

 

[Fadge]

Didn't they beat , of all teams, Fitzroy in the GF ?

Quite ironic, isn't it, that Carlton are yet to win a flag since Fitzroy have no longer been in the competition...

 

[Fadge]

Pie supporters still thinking they are a powerhouse contender, hilarious

Fun fact....

Collingwood have contended for the premiership on 9 separate occasions since Carlton last did in 1999.

2002
2003
2007
2010
2011
2018
2019
2022
2023

With two other top 4 finishes - 2009 and 2012.

 

[Worm4]

Whether I pick Carlton to finish 7th, 13th or 18th, it really is immaterial.

The bottom line is that I've consistently stated they don't have the list quality/depth/structure to genuinely contend for a flag, which has been proven correct time and time again.

Do you honestly believe that retaining perenially injured players like Martin, Marchbank, and Cunningham is/ wasthe key to our clubs success ? I mean, the list was always 3 short every year without a ball being bounced.
Then the club backs in a couple of kids ( motlop , injured most of the year, and Durdin ) to cover the loss of All Australian nominees Owies and Kennedy ( has anyone worn the vest more) because, well 1 player wants more opportunity elsewhere and the other wants more coin
Then of course the club turns its attention to securing the best emerging ruck in the competition which leaves no room for an AA half back in the trade period . Carlton doesn't have a need for high priced half backs. They get Houston in, they lose TDK a year later with no decent rucks left of the list - would this situation well with you ? Actually I know what your response will be don't answer that . You continue to say we have no depth- if thats the case, Houston aint fixing this list issue is he.
The clubs strategy sits well with me and a lot of others.
Continue to rate the list as a bottom 4 side. They will prove you wrong in season 2025. They will win more than 8 games next year ( Adelaide won 8 finishing 15th in 2024)

 

[Worm4]

Fun fact....

Collingwood have contended for the premiership on 9 separate occasions since Carlton last did in 1999.

2002
2003
2007
2010
2011
2018
2019
2022
2023

With two other top 4 finishes - 2009 and 2012.

Participation awards day is it ?

 

[Worm4]

Pie supporters still thinking they are a powerhouse contender, hilarious

The powerhouse of Mexico

 

[Arr0w]

The powerhouse of Mexico

It's the funniest crap ever

 

[Fadge]

Participation awards day is it ?

You've got to contend to win it, and you'll find there are some premierships amongst that list.

 

[Worm4]

It's the funniest crap ever

Talking about crap, how about those Mexicans in 2024.

 

[Fadge]

It's the funniest crap ever

Nowhere near as funny as watching Carlton for the last two decades has been.

 

[Worm4]

You've got to contend to win it, and you'll find there are some premierships amongst that list.

I've seen more premierships than you.
Keep fighting the good fight but..

 

[Fadge]

Do you honestly believe that retaining perenially injured players like Martin, Marchbank, and Cunningham is/ wasthe key to our clubs success ? I mean, the list was always 3 short every year without a ball being bounced.

I think you'll find that this was a shortcoming of Carlton's list management that I have highlighted for 5 years. This is indeed a step in the right direction.

 

[Fadge]

I've seen more premierships than you.
Keep fighting the good fight but..

Not for a long, long time...

 

[Fadge]

Continue to rate the list as a bottom 4 side. They will prove you wrong in season 2025. They will win more than 8 games next year ( Adelaide won 8 finishing 15th in 2024)

They might.

But on the balance of probabilities, they're not contending, because they don't have the list profile to do so.

 

[Arr0w]

Talking about crap, how about those Mexicans in 2024.

If only they won 1 more game, not even a participant this year

 

[Worm4]

They might.

But on the balance of probabilities, they're not contending, because they don't have the list profile to do so.

But do you think 1 player in Houston changes all that ?

 

[Arr0w]

But do you think 1 player in Houston changes all that ?

Not sure you're going to get a decent footy analysis

 

[Worm4]

Not for a long, long time...

Blues are averaging 1 premiership for every 9 years I've been alive. What if you apply the same method for your beloved pies ?