Who will be better in 2025 - Geelong or Hawthorn?

[Footy Smarts]

The differences between the two teams are overblown. Geelong had 6 players under 23. Hawthorn had 7. Both showed enough form to win a flag but both lost close finals after not their best performances.

Both teams had players they expect to be guns missing (Day and De Koning).

Both teams have early draftees to come in to the side that they rate highly and expect to become good players (McKenzie, Clark and O'Sullivan).

The potential range for both teams is incredibly wide next year. I wouldn't be that surprised if either won the flag. But I also wouldn't be at all surprised if either miss finals.

 

[STPer18]

The excuses being reeled out, the backtracking, the doublespeak, the leaps of logic etc emanating from salty cat fans right now are simply delicious.

It’s impossible not to laugh.

 

[STPer18]

Anyway we're going off the cliff, all our best players are 45+.

 

[WillHayward]

My only solace is that Smith is one of the biggest ry rn turnover merchants in the AFL so there is hope he can be another Dylan Shiel. But, knowing Geelong, he'll probably win a brownlow in a year or 2.

Somehow Geelong will turn Jack Martin into a reliable player that plays every week

 

[azyboy]

If Geelong consistently clings to a top two spot, as Sydney did in 2024, they will have had better than expected year.

If Hawthorn falls outside that 3 to 14 band, it is likely to be on the lower side, but they will also be seen to have underachieved.

Even with the context of a group of teams being bunched 3-14, this perspective allows for Hawthorn to tumble down the ladder and still meet expectations whilst if the Cats don’t finish 1 or 2, they’ve underachieved. Curious logic.

 

[DrEvil_]

Even with the context of a group of teams being bunched 3-14, this perspective allows for Hawthorn to tumble down the ladder and still meet expectations whilst if the Cats don’t finish 1 or 2, they’ve underachieved. Curious logic.

You need to check your own logic. How is the opposite of having a better than expected year underachieving?

 

[div12ressie]

The excuses being reeled out, the backtracking, the doublespeak, the leaps of logic etc emanating from salty cat fans right now are simply delicious.

It’s impossible not to laugh.

what drugs did you take last night brother you're cooked

 

[WesternSydneyHawk]

Even with the context of a group of teams being bunched 3-14, this perspective allows for Hawthorn to tumble down the ladder and still meet expectations whilst if the Cats don’t finish 1 or 2, they’ve underachieved. Curious logic.

Just to be clear, I expect there will be a bunch of clubs with a similar number of wins placed 3 to 14.

I expect both Geelong and Hawthorn to be in that mix somewhere.

 

[azyboy]

You need to check your own logic. How is the opposite of having a better than expected year underachieving?

I reread that back. You’re quite right. I got that one wrong. Carry on.

 

[azyboy]

Just to be clear, I expect there will be a bunch of clubs with a similar number of wins placed 3 to 14.

I expect both Geelong and Hawthorn to be in that mix somewhere.

All good. Dr Evil pointed out my logic failing

 

[WesternSydneyHawk]

You need to check your own logic. How is the opposite of having a better than expected year underachieving?

Exactly right.

Both clubs will most likely be in the group of clubs that are 3 to 14.

If either club ends up finishing top 2, they've overachieved.

Likewise, bottom 4 at the end of the season will be an underachievement.

 

[Jeremias]

Geelong.

I think there's a decent chance Hawthorn take a step 'backwards' next season, whereas I expect the Cats to be there or there abouts again.

 

[Taper]

Tonight I saw someone (not a Hawk) describe Geelong as ‘the club with no salary cap’.

They’re probably always going to have talent fall into their laps, and thus are always going to be up there, with that being the case.

Is that why we couldn't match Gold Coast's offer for Ablett Jr in 2010?

Anyway,
Chris Scott's system is why so many of our players look good, just look at the players who have left us during the Scott era and been exposed as plodders at other clubs.

Esava Ratugolea is the most recent example.
He looked decent while playing for us, but since being at Port he's looked all at sea.

Tim Kelly is another recent example.
He looked a genuine A+ grade superstar while playing for us and close to the best player in the game, but he's been a solid reliable B+ grade midfielder at best since being at West Coast.

 

[DrEvil_]

Honestly both overachieved this year and will probably fall back next year.

 

[Fluro Boots]

Hard to say, I feel like Hawthorn really rode their luck this year which was awesome but may not happen next year. On the flip side maybe a 0-5 start won’t be on the cards so it might even out. Reckon it’ll probably be close between the cats and hawks next year with 2 wins max separating them.

 

[Jables]

We weren't lucky, our good form was way too consistent to say that. But that doesn't mean we are close to being expected to be top 4 every year and that is still Geelong's state, whether they fall off or not is its own discussion. Also doesn't mean we are guaranteed anything, key players like Will Day have played one proper full season in their careers, he has had a couple injuries but we are that young.

 

[Gavin Excell]

This is quite a good question

 

[Biggy_Boy]

The differences between the two teams are overblown. Geelong had 6 players under 23. Hawthorn had 7. Both showed enough form to win a flag but both lost close finals after not their best performances.

Both teams had players they expect to be guns missing (Day and De Koning).

Both teams have early draftees to come in to the side that they rate highly and expect to become good players (McKenzie, Clark and O'Sullivan).

The potential range for both teams is incredibly wide next year. I wouldn't be that surprised if either won the flag. But I also wouldn't be at all surprised if either miss finals.

Hawthorn have greater scope to improve than we do. We have similar numbers of players under 23 playing, but Geelong have more, and are far more reliant on, 30+ year old veterans to do the heavy lifting. We still require Dangerfield, Stewart and Cameron to do a lot of our heavy lifting, whereas for Hawthorn their key players are mostly around the early to mid-20s age bracket. They have Breust and Gunston in the side but these are not absolutely vital performers for them.

Hawthorn's rise was really on the back of some overwhelming performances by young and inexperienced players, far exceeding what their age and experience would indicate they are capable of. It was surprising and one can easily think that they have many years of success in front of them if they follow a trajectory of exponential improvement year on year. But footy players often do not do that, and youth being the driving factor could also mean the side is vulnerable to the volatility of youth and the whole team could slip a little bit before regaining ground in a few years.

For Geelong, we saw good improvement in some younger players this year, like Holmes, Dempsey and Humphries, but going forward I doubt we have enough coming through, particularly in key areas, to arrest the fall and make up for the losses in retirement and player degradation we're seeing. Our main issue is we don't have good looking players coming through in key areas of weakness or loss. We need some better inside mids and we don't have them. We need a ruckman as Conwayis made of glass. We need a KPF to replace Hawkins/Cameron. We need a KPD to come along.

SDK didn't miss through injury or anything like that. He missed because he had no place in the side. he can be bitter about that as much as he likes, but the reality is that he didn't deserve to be a walk-up start; his form for 18 months hasn't warranted it. he hasn't been good enough as a key back and as a ruck he wasn't as good as a ready-to-retire Rhys Stanley.

That Hawks have many of the structural pieces they need. The question on them will be if the kids can continue to improve and what they'll do when their gameplan has been picked apart by coaches over the summer. Many of Geelong's key pieces are on the downard trend without a replacement waiting, so the questions are on how long those players can continue to play at an acceptable level and where Geelong will source replacements, espeically when we'll have another severely compromised draft hand as a result of Smith's acquisiton.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Is that why we couldn't match Gold Coast's offer for Ablett Jr in 2010?

Anyway,
Chris Scott's system is why so many of our players look good, just look at the players who have left us during the Scott era and been exposed as plodders at other clubs.

Esava Ratugolea is the most recent example.
He looked decent while playing for us, but since being at Port he's looked all at sea.

Tim Kelly is another recent example.
He looked a genuine A+ grade superstar while playing for us and close to the best player in the game, but he's been a solid reliable B+ grade midfielder at best since being at West Coast.

I don't really agree. We really haven't lost many good players under Scott's tenure. The players we've lost haven't really been exposed as plodders; they already were plodders and that's why they weren't wanted by the club. I don't think Sav really looked decent for us. He could clunk a mark at times but was always defensively suspect and didn't seem able to
read the game well. I think we were okay to lose him.

Tim Kelly went from a top 4 club to one that plummetted to the bottom of the comp like a rock, so yeah, he looked better at Geelong. I don't know if you attribute that to any specific system or just that he had a much better side around him. Also, from the moment Geelong drafted him he wanted to get a trade to WCE, so he was playing to impress and to drum up his value. He gets the big money deal from WCE for multiple years, ensuring his and his family's stability, and it's not too surprising the motivation goes down a bit, especially when he knows he's nowhere near a flag with them.

 

[Aaron Reed]

You gotta go with Hawthorn, if they aren’t hoisting at least 2-3 cups with this group then there’s gonna be some very serious questions asked on what the issues are. The only question mark I see at the moment is the captain but surely Sam Mitchell can help the brat to grow up a bit in the next few seasons to be more of a help than a hindrance.

 

[MisterMarcus]

I will be genuinely curious to see how Hawthorn go next season.

Will have a tougher draw and will probably be the 'hunted' rather than the hunters, but on the other hand will have had finals experience under their belt and the confidence they can push deep in September.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

It's a very good question, and both clubs have players at similar levels, across areas of the ground.

Of those in a similar age bracket:

Holmes - Day
Stengle - Moore
Humphries - D'Ambrosio
J Henry - Scrimshaw
Dempsey - Macdonald
Neale - Dear
Stewart - Sicily
Clark - McKenzie
Z Guthrie - Hardwick
SDK - Weddle*

*Stretch I know with Weddle marked for more time up the ground, but just trying to find comparisons.

Both clubs posses imposing small forward ranks, and would arguably be #1 & #2 in those areas across the league. It's pick your poison really.

Wizard, Macdonald, Ginnivan, & Moore - Mannagh, Close, Stengle, Miers.

Where Hawthorn really come out ahead is their prime aged midfielders for mine.

If we're prepared to call Day/Holmes a wash, it still doesn't change that Newcombe, Worpel, & Nash is just simply better than Bruhn & Bowes.

Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

could potentially make that look a bit more even, but it still needs one more IMO.

Not to mention Meek, who is just miles ahead of the corpse of Stanley and the still-raw Conway.

At this stage I'm inclined to say Hawthorn. Love what Mitchell has done, and the list looks primed for an extended tilt.

Geelong are 1-2 years away from really beginning that IMO. We need a couple more pre-seasons for the u-23s to really take over completely, and a couple more trades/FA's for mine.

All in all though, expect to see these two clubs meet in finals at some point over the next few years.

Just seems like fate yet again.

 

[SSSSSS]

You gotta go with Hawthorn, if they aren’t hoisting at least 2-3 cups with this group then there’s gonna be some very serious questions asked on what the issues are. The only question mark I see at the moment is the captain but surely Sam Mitchell can help the brat to grow up a bit in the next few seasons to be more of a help than a hindrance.

Feel like Sicily has acquitted himself well as a leader this year, basically playing with one shoulder for half a season and still throwing himself in everything. Inspirational.

 

[toomanysquibs]

Oh look, it's another Geelong person who doesn't know how to behave post match.

I guess being a grown up really is optional under Brad Scott. And Hinkley carries the taint with him.

Listen to Selwood's post 2013 Prelim interview.

It's a cultural thing.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Hawthorn half frwd line is a point of difference for mine , genuine clever, hard running players in that position that give headaches to the opposition but , the cats half frwd line is as just as good which seems to be missed by most. They also run hard, dangerous around the goals and double up as post clearance mids! Backlines of both sides are fantastic and WİLL get better imo. Maybe hawks have whatever edge they may have with the improvement and age profile of Day, Newcombe and Mackenzie. I don't expect anything less than top 4 for both tbh. Going to be interesting to watch them next season.