Who will win the Brownlow?

[Bell Ringer]

When I was 11yo and Diesel didn't get a vote for a 44 disposal game I lost all respect for the Brownlow.

While you could argue my reasoning back then was biased, I don't think the end result was wrong.

We spend all season bagging the umps, then wait with 'bated breath to hear who they think is the best player.

Why?

 

[kaiserchief13]

When I was 11yo and Diesel didn't get a vote for a 44 disposal game I lost all respect for the Brownlow.

While you could argue my reasoning back then was biased, I don't think the end result was wrong.

We spend all season bagging the umps, then wait with 'bated breath to hear who they think is the best player.

Why?

Because it is the official/most prestigious individual AFL award

 

[crownie]

feels like one of those seasons where a dark horse might win it.

 

[Crow_Sting]

After round 18 this is my progressive tally

Dane Swan Collingwood 25
Scott Thompson Adelaide 24
Gary Ablett Gold Coast 23
Trent Cotchin Richmond 21
Joel Selwood Geelong 19
Josh Kennedy Sydney 19
Jobe Watson Essendon 18
Matthew Pavlich Fremantle 18
Lance Franklin Hawthorn 18
Dayne Beams Collingwood 17
Sam Mitchell Hawthorn 17
Lenny Hayes StKilda 17
Scott Pendlebury Collingwood 16
Matthew Boyd Western Bulldogs 16
Patrick Dangerfield Adelaide 15
Tom Rockliff Brisbane 14
Brent Stanton Essendon 14
Brett Deledio Richmond 14

 

[AlterRob]

After round 18 this is my progressive tally

Dane Swan Collingwood 25
Scott Thompson Adelaide 24
Gary Ablett Gold Coast 23
Trent Cotchin Richmond 21
Joel Selwood Geelong 19
Josh Kennedy Sydney 19
Jobe Watson Essendon 18
Matthew Pavlich Fremantle 18
Lance Franklin Hawthorn 18
Dayne Beams Collingwood 17
Sam Mitchell Hawthorn 17
Lenny Hayes StKilda 17
Scott Pendlebury Collingwood 16
Matthew Boyd Western Bulldogs 16
Patrick Dangerfield Adelaide 15
Tom Rockliff Brisbane 14
Brent Stanton Essendon 14
Brett Deledio Richmond 14

Impressive. Gazza or Cotchin are deserving winners for mine. Selwood would be nice though.

 

[Crow_Sting]

Impressive. Gazza or Cotchin are deserving winners for mine. Selwood would be nice though.

I think mine is the lowest i've seen Watson, and havent seen Swan on that many in others

 

[AM]

Ablett deserves it but playing in a losing team probably means too many 3 votes will allude him.

I'd like to see Pendlebury do well as he's a gem of a player. His only fault is he plays for you-know-who.

 

[Crow_Sting]

Ablett deserves it but playing in a losing team probably means too many 3 votes will allude him.

I'd like to see Pendlebury do well as he's a gem of a player. His only fault is he plays for you-know-who.

A lot of 1s and 2s for Ablett with a few 3's. Hasn't led my count at all so far. Gets to 2nd and gets a zero or 1 voter. My pick from here will be Thompson, if he gets rubbed out, im backing Cotchin, Swan or Selwood

 

[eaglespremiers]

Would imagine Swan has his name written all over it ATM.
Interesting to see the AFLCA have Cotchin ahead:
http://aflca.com.au/

 

[Bluelegs]

Ablett won't get close. Not these days.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Ablett won't get close. Not these days.

Why not?
Just the huge losses?

 

[Bluelegs]

Why not?
Just the huge losses?

Pretty much. It's fairly hard to argue you had the most impact when your team is getting dismantled every week. Players from teams at the bottom of the table don't win brownlow medals these days.

 

[Dan]

When was the last time we had a Brownlow winner from a team that finish outside the 8? Would it be Crawford in 99?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Pretty much. It's fairly hard to argue you had the most impact when your team is getting dismantled every week. Players from teams at the bottom of the table don't win brownlow medals these days.

Certainly have a point.
Ablett was immense on the weekend but it's hard to think he'll get 3 votes when his team destroyed by 72 points.
Especially when there was plenty of good Swans.
The only game they have won this year he's only likely to be in minor votes, if at all.

 

[InspectorRex]

do umpires get to see stat sheets prior to voting?
if stats are shown on the big screen such as when ablett got 50, umps can't help at notice that and it will influence them in a big way...

 

[Obese Arachnid]

I'd just like to welcome InspecorRex to BF as i see it's his first post.

Welcome aboard, although i notice you barrack for Carlscum, so this will be my last post to you.

 

[Marlowe]

I feel like Joel Selwood has a decent chance to steal it this year.

He hasn't been spectacular, or terrible, slightly above average on a team that's starting to pick up some fine wins, and I don't know if he would have too many teammates siphoning votes from him either. He always polls well, too.

He's my dark horse pick.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Pretty much. It's fairly hard to argue you had the most impact when your team is getting dismantled every week. Players from teams at the bottom of the table don't win brownlow medals these days.

I think this is a weak argument. Ablett polled 23 Brownlow votes last year (which is enough to have you in the top few most years).

Statistically, Ablett is having a better season in 2012 than in 2011.

Ablett 2011 - averaged 30.2 touches a game and 0.9 goals per game (127.1 champion data/super coach points average)
Ablett 2012 - averaging 35.1 touches a game and 1.1 goals per game (136.1 champion data/super coach points average)

If you consider those numbers and consider Ablett managed 23 votes last year, there is no reason he won't poll around the 30 vote mark this year.

 

[eaglespremiers]

do umpires get to see stat sheets prior to voting?
if stats are shown on the big screen such as when ablett got 50, umps can't help at notice that and it will influence them in a big way...

I'm pretty sure they can look at the stats sheet before voting.

 

[Bluelegs]

do umpires get to see stat sheets prior to voting?
if stats are shown on the big screen such as when ablett got 50, umps can't help at notice that and it will influence them in a big way...

They're judged on impact. What impact did Ablett have on that Collingwood game when he racked up those possessions? Was his impact as good or better than the top three Collingwood players that day?

 

[eaglespremiers]

He's my dark horse pick.

I think that it is stretching the meaning of "dark horse" for Joel Selwood to be considered.
Dark horse this year would be Kieran Jack, Andrew Swallow or Shane Tuck.
Surprised there is no love for Dayne Beams. Would still be my pick of the Pies players.

 

[eaglespremiers]

They're judged on impact. What impact did Ablett have on that Collingwood game when he racked up those possessions? Was his impact as good or better than the top three Collingwood players that day?

This sounds about right. From recollection they can look at the stats sheet.
But, as history has shown, they are inclined to completely ignore the stats at times (i.e. Judd's game against PA a couple years ago netted him 2 votes despite him having limited impact on the game - 17 touches). Constantly ignoring big games from Simon Goodwin etc.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

They're judged on impact. What impact did Ablett have on that Collingwood game when he racked up those possessions? Was his impact as good or better than the top three Collingwood players that day?

As someone who was at that game. Dale Thomas ought to get 3 votes, but Ablett will get the 2 votes at least.

Even the best players of all-time is not going to be enough to win games for a rubbish team like Gold Coast, you can't do much more than what Ablett does.

 

[Marlowe]

I think that it is stretching the meaning of "dark horse" for Joel Selwood to be considered.
Dark horse this year would be Kieran Jack, Andrew Swallow or Shane Tuck.
Surprised there is no love for Dayne Beams. Would still be my pick of the Pies players.

I saw him at $51 on one site, which I thought was high. But point taken. "Mulatto" horse, then.

 

[Bluelegs]

As someone who was at that game. Dale Thomas ought to get 3 votes, but Ablett will get the 2 votes at least.

Even the best players of all-time is not going to be enough to win games for a rubbish team like Gold Coast, you can't do much more than what Ablett does.

While I think he's arguably the best player in the competition I just can't see him winning a brownlow this year considering the losses he's been involved in. One player can't win games for teams of course, but it is very rare you will see a player get votes when their team is thrashed, no matter how good they are. It's just the way the voting system works, and has worked for a while now. He did okay last year but Gold Coast also played better last year, there were a few games where they showed a bit of form earlier in the year but he wasn't involved in them, so I'm not sure which games will get him votes.