Who will win the Brownlow?

[Syd]

Judd

Agree.

Seriously though, will be interesting to see how many votes Jetta polls.

 

[who_let_the_dogs_out]

Jobe Watson for mine.

Matt Priddis or maybe Josh Kennedy at Sydney as smokeys.

 

[Scatter]

I'd have Pav as a roughy, especially if he continues his current form.
Proven vote getter - for whatever reason he generally gets 3 votes when he kicks 4 or more.

 

[rand corp]

Dayne Beams

 

[Hodgepodge]

Dane Swan . . . probably just because he's the most consistent in the competition.

The only time Swan dipped below 30 disposals this year was when he did a hamstring injury and came off early.

Also averaging 39 disposals a game since coming back from the hammy, so he's making up for lost time.

 

[danielnajdek]

Also averaging 39 disposals a game since coming back from the hammy, so he's making up for lost time.

In last years Brownlow count he was getting BOG's nearly every game in the second half of the year so he can stack up the votes quickly.

 

[juzzo]

With Essendon's season grinding to a halt Watson will find it hard to poll many more votes. A good draw puts Thompson in great position, with Ablett and Beams also in striking distance if they finish well.

 

[The2ndComing]

In last years Brownlow count he was getting BOG's nearly every game in the second half of the year so he can stack up the votes quickly.

But still does nothing with his disposals. Puzzling for me.

 

[SSSSSS]

Mitchell making a late charge. I'd have Pav as a smoky though if Freo can win their remaining games.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

With Essendon's season grinding to a halt Watson will find it hard to poll many more votes. A good draw puts Thompson in great position, with Ablett and Beams also in striking distance if they finish well.

You can look at it both ways, Watson may have polled tonight (Mitchell will get the 3), but it would not surprise me to see him get a vote. Watson probably only needs 3-5 more votes.

 

[danielnajdek]

But still does nothing with his disposals. Puzzling for me.

Not this old argument again

 

[liam_13]

You can look at it both ways, Watson may have polled tonight (Mitchell will get the 3), but it would not surprise me to see him get a vote. Watson probably only needs 3-5 more votes.

If Watson polls a single vote in the last fortnight, then the manlove of the umpires to him will be of Judd proportions. Watson wasn't even that great last night, he was good, and played a lone hand at times, but even he turned the ball over a few times and made a couple of big errors. Don't get me wrong, he was still good, but it wasn't his best game and in a 15 goal loss, wasn't in the top 5 players on the ground.

edit: Agree that Watson should only need 3-5 more votes to get around the high 20's-30 mark, which should be enough to win unless Swan/Ablett/couple of smokies come home with a wet sail.

 

[pavilion103]

not Scott Thompson now

 

[Loonerty]

Yep Thompson just lost any hope he had.
Good for Jobe and Cotchin I think.

 

[TBoyleSuperstar]

What about Dean Cox as a roughie??

Been kicking goals, racking up the footy as normal, and in a side that is winning week in week out.

Pendlebury will still go close if he finishes the year well. Missed a fair few games with the broken leg, but his start to the year was outstanding

 

[liam_13]

In no particular order, looking at what's ahead of these teams in the last 6 weeks, if their teams will win more then they lose then they may get lifted to in contention rather then smoky and so on.

In contention:
Scott Thompson
Dane Swan
Jobe Watson
Gary Ablett
Sam Mitchell

Smoky:
Scott Pendlebury
Matthew Pavlich
Joel Selwood
Trent Cotchin
Lenny Hayes
Josh Kennedy
Kieran Jack
Matt Priddis

Have to dominate last 6 weeks to be in within a chance of top 3, so I think they at least 6-8 votes behind the leaders, but if they grab 10-15 from the last 6 rounds they could come from nowhere (Also couple of young players who I'm not sure how they will poll, but have been in good form):
Patrick Dangerfield
Tom Rockliff
Dayne Beams
Brent Stanton
Lance Franklin
Andrew Swallow
Brett Deledio
Lewis Jetta

Those players aren't necessarily in my top 20 or so, but really divided into the bracket I expect them to finish, bar injury or seriously good form.

At this stage-leaders for each club:
Adelaide: Scott Thompson
Brisbane: Tom Rockliff
Carlton: Chris Judd
Collingwood: Dane Swan
Essendon: Jobe Watson
Freo: Matthew Pavlich
Geelong: Joel Selwood
GC: Gary Ablett
GWS: Callan Ward/Adam Treloar (Treloar was BOG vs GC from memory? So could get the 3, while Ward probably has a couple of 1's from losses)
Hawthorn: Sam Mitchell
Melbourne: Nathan Jones
North: Andrew Swallow
Port: Matthew Broadbent/Danyle Pearce (hard to pick, Port should rack up a lot more votes then last year but can't see anyone hogging them - much more even this year. Can't decide in some games whether Broadbent would've caught the umpires eye enough, but I've rated him)
Richmond: Trent Cotchin
St Kilda: Lenny Hayes
Sydney: Kieran Jack (overtaken Kennedy recently)
WC: Matt Priddis (no idea for this one)
WB: Matthew Boyd (Griffen just behind - depends on who polls well in their wins)

I think Jobe Watson would be current leader with 24-27 votes, with Mitchell, Swan and Ablett just behind.

Sam Mitchell would be in the box seat for me to win it from here. I reckon he'll take it out.

 

[liam_13]

Not Thompson it's safe to say.

Yep Thompson just lost any hope he had.
Good for Jobe and Cotchin I think.

not Scott Thompson now

Not watching, too busy typing up what I just did. What happened?

 

[FantasticShirt]

Not watching, too busy typing up what I just did. What happened?

He caught Steve Johnson high. Will be an interesting one..pretty sure he hasn't been suspended/in front of the MRP for 5+ years so he'll go in with a good record...commentators said nothing in it.

 

[liam_13]

He caught Steve Johnson high. Will be an interesting one..pretty sure he hasn't been suspended/in front of the MRP for 5+ years so he'll go in with a good record...commentators said nothing in it.

From what I've read elsewhere in the last couple of minutes, Johnson initiated contact. If that's true (again, I haven't seen the incident) then the charge will probably get down to a reprimand, which would still rule him out of the Brownlow, or it will get thrown out, which will keep him in the race.

 

[Loonerty]

The fact Johnson got subbed with concussion doesn't help him.

 

[Mitchell19]

He caught Steve Johnson high. Will be an interesting one..pretty sure he hasn't been suspended/in front of the MRP for 5+ years so he'll go in with a good record...commentators said nothing in it.

I believe the discount for a good record doesn't help in terms of Brownlow eligibility. It's if the base points are greater than 100pts before suspension. I remember Sam Mitchell never missed a game last year yet was ineligible as he received a reprimand after discount.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Laughing at the commentators adamant there was nothing in it at all, Thompson's just a big guy yada yada. The ****? He bumped him and got him high! Like Franklin, size is no excuse.

I can't see how there's "nothing in it". Hit him in the head, was subbed off

 

[blue_bear1]

Pendles

 

[Veroldin]

Laughing at the commentators adamant there was nothing in it at all, Thompson's just a big guy yada yada. The ****? He bumped him and got him high! Like Franklin, size is no excuse.

I can't see how there's "nothing in it". Hit him in the head, was subbed off

He didn't bump him, johnson ran straight into him and thommo just braced for contact. he won't get reprimanded nor should he. it was 100% johnsons fault

 

[Lance Uppercut]

He didn't bump him, johnson ran straight into him and thommo just braced for contact. he won't get reprimanded nor should he. it was 100% johnsons fault

*Checks posters team*

We'll see I guess