Opinion Who wins the Premiership? (Updated poll - Updated for Prelims))

[Do the Dew]

Well yeah, never did I think the GF would be full of WC supporters on GF day. That's common sense. I would be confident winning at Optus even with zero crowd. Think you underestimate the effect of waking up in your own bed GF day and playing on an the oval you are used to.

Considering that studies on home ground advantage all state that crowds have the biggest influence on performance (travel is only an issue if a team is crossing multiple time zones and gets jet lag) - then no, I’m not underestimating the effect of waking up in your own bed because it’s statistically not a significant factor.

HGA is predominantly made up of crowd support. That’s proven.


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[Coaster2012]

Richmond imo will take it now. They play good footy at the Gabba and West Coast haven't lately. WC back to QLD after round 13, sadly.

 

[revo333]

Richmond imo will take it now. They play good footy at the Gabba and West Coast haven't lately. WC back to QLD after round 13, sadly.

With regards to their players behaviour in the hubs and the continue whinging of Cothin and Riewoldt, They are gradually building to be one of the most unpopular premierships winners ever.

 

[Coaster2012]

Considering that studies on home ground advantage all state that crowds have the biggest influence on performance (travel is only an issue if a team is crossing multiple time zones and gets jet lag) - then no, I’m not underestimating the effect of waking up in your own bed because it’s statistically not a significant factor.

HGA is predominantly made up of crowd support. That’s proven.


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Its odd then that historically, interstate teams generally have struggled to win Grand Finals against Victorian sides. Give me a link to the studies conducted on AFL football that say crowds are the only worthy factor in home ground advantage. Can't say I've ever heard of such a study taking place. Would be curious to read it.

 

[revo333]

Richmond imo will take it now. They play good footy at the Gabba and West Coast haven't lately. WC back to QLD after round 13, sadly.

Brisbane went at 100% and the Tigers were 85% and still defeated them comfortably.

 

[Coaster2012]

Brisbane went at 100% and the Tigers were 85% and still defeated them comfortably.

Lions were off a 4 day break and 1 man down. But yeah, still isn't an excuse for how bad they played.

 

[Do the Dew]

With regards to their players behaviour in the hubs and the continue whinging of Cothin and Riewoldt, They are gradually building to be one of the most unpopular premierships winners ever.

Yep. Tigers are even more unpopular than the 06 drug-fueled Eagles, whose behaviour off the field clearly pales in comparison to the QLD Tigers.


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[Coaster2012]

Yep. Tigers are even more unpopular than the 06 drug-fueled Eagles, whose behaviour off the field clearly pales in comparison to the QLD Tigers.


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Lol, touchy

 

[Do the Dew]

Its odd then that historically, interstate teams generally have struggled to win Grand Finals against Victorian sides. Give me a link to the studies conducted on AFL football that say crowds are the only worthy factor in home ground advantage. Can't say I've ever heard of such a study taking place. Would be curious to read it.

For a start, the sample size in the AFL era of Vic vs Non-Vic grand finals is to small to get an accurate portrayal.

I’m not sure if there are any AFL related studies, but there are a plethora of soccer, basketball, baseball, US football ones. The soccer ones in particular are relevant, considering that they play games far more often than we do, and often have to travel to other countries and back in short stints. All these sports have pretty much identically sized playing surfaces so ground familiarity isn’t a concern either.

Unfortunately some Eagles players/coaches have bleated on the last couple of seasons about the travel factor, and although it isn’t a negligible factor, it is completely overshadowed by crowds and how this affects HGA.

There was even a study done on the Bundesliga since their restart and the away teams were having significantly better results than pre-Covid. The only differing factor was home crowds/empty stadiums.


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[Coaster2012]

For a start, the sample size in the AFL era of Vic vs Non-Vic grand finals is to small to get an accurate portrayal.

I’m not sure if there are any AFL related studies, but there are a plethora of soccer, basketball, baseball, US football ones. The soccer ones in particular are relevant, considering that they play games far more often than we do, and often have to travel to other countries and back in short stints. All these sports have pretty much identically sized playing surfaces so ground familiarity isn’t a concern either.

Unfortunately some Eagles players/coaches have bleated on the last couple of seasons about the travel factor, and although it isn’t a negligible factor, it is completely overshadowed by crowds and how this affects HGA.

There was even a study done on the Bundesliga since their restart and the away teams were having significantly better results than pre-Covid. The only differing factor was home crowds/empty stadiums.


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Considering the entirity of Europe takes up about half of Australia, I hardly think soccer sides travelling to other countries is "partically relevant" and is also done sporadically. Champions league football isn't played every 2 weeks. Also, most US sports don't travel far either. They are so densily populated that their next game is usually a state or two over. And yes, familiarity isn't a concern either, while it is in the AFL due to different dimensions. So it seems these studies don't correlate with AFL football at all and I question the validity of them to begin with tbh.

Some teams play particular grounds better than others based on play style and home ground size dimensions that have nothing to do with crowd. I also don't think Richmond fans would agree that if the GF was held in Perth, and the fan base was the same for each side, that it would be considered a neutral ground, either.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Lions were off a 4 day break and 1 man down. But yeah, still isn't an excuse for how bad they played.

Yep four day break and Rayner down makes a big difference. And as usual we shot ourselves in the foot with inaccuracy.

 

[Saintt]

Its odd then that historically, interstate teams generally have struggled to win Grand Finals against Victorian sides.

The stats say interstate sides are 9-9 against Victorian sides in grand finals. Only in recent years have Victorian sides become dominant over them.

 

[Coaster2012]

The stats say interstate sides are 9-9 against Victorian sides in grand finals. Only in recent years have Victorian sides become dominant over them.

Let me rephrase that, interstate teams without concessions have struggled against Victorian teams in the GF at the MCG. i.e Sydneys Cola, Brisbane Lions early 2000s, Eagles in the early 90s all had help.

 

[tiger_tough]

With regards to their players behaviour in the hubs and the continue whinging of Cothin and Riewoldt, They are gradually building to be one of the most unpopular premierships winners ever.

We're okay with that.

 

[HTT]

Considering the entirity of Europe takes up about half of Australia, I hardly think soccer sides travelling to other countries is "partically relevant" and is also done sporadically. Champions league football isn't played every 2 weeks. Also, most US sports don't travel far either. They are so densily populated that their next game is usually a state or two over. And yes, familiarity isn't a concern either, while it is in the AFL due to different dimensions. So it seems these studies don't correlate with AFL football.

Some teams play particular grounds better than others based on play style and home ground size dimensions that have nothing to do with crowd. I also don't think Richmond fans would agree that if the GF was held in Perth, and the fan base was the same for each side, that it would be considered a neutral ground, either.

Europe is 1.5x the size of Australia.
It spans about the same distance East-West.

The US is actually kind of comparable to Australia, a lot of their population in the east, not much in the middle, and another centre out west. A greater proportion of their population would be in the west than Australia, but that just makes the sample size of long east-west trips bigger.
The flight from LA to New York is 5.5hrs. The longest trip in the AFL (within Australia) is between Perth and Brisbane at 4.5hrs

 

[queensberryrules]

Tiges unpopular.
Huhu.
My Tiger mates won't accept anything less than being despised, as per the early 70s. Anything less is failure, they say.

 

[queensberryrules]

Yep four day break and Rayner down makes a big difference. And as usual we shot ourselves in the foot with inaccuracy.

Lions are not far off. I think it's belief. Once they get that, watch out.

 

[bh90210fan]

Considering that studies on home ground advantage all state that crowds have the biggest influence on performance (travel is only an issue if a team is crossing multiple time zones and gets jet lag) - then no, I’m not underestimating the effect of waking up in your own bed because it’s statistically not a significant factor.

HGA is predominantly made up of crowd support. That’s proven.


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The crowds influence over umpiring has resulted in 2% drop of wins for the home team in European soccer Leagues over this Covid period without any crowds. Home teams have gone from winning 58% of their home games historically down to 56%. Leading to the conclusion that homeground advantage is much more than just the crowd.And MCG tenants get to reap the reward every year as much as you like to downplay it.

Empty stadiums have shrunk football teams’ home advantage

Officiating bias disappears without fans, but clubs still play better at home

www.economist.com

 

[Coaster2012]

Europe is 1.5x the size of Australia.
It spans about the same distance East-West.

The US is actually kind of comparable to Australia, a lot of their population in the east, not much in the middle, and another centre out west. A greater proportion of their population would be in the west than Australia, but that just makes the sample size of long east-west trips bigger.
The flight from LA to New York is 5.5hrs. The longest trip in the AFL (within Australia) is between Perth and Brisbane at 4.5hrs

No, Australia is 1.5 times the size of Europe.

And soccer reference would literally mean a team from Northern Island would travel to Russia to play every 2nd week west to east which is a non existent scenario. It's just not a good comparison to make to bank on a travel argument.

LA teams also very rarely fly to NY and back to play 1 game, almost never, due to the travel factor. They generally jump state to state. And even though the population is sparser in the middle of the US than the coasts, its still has numerous sporting teams. Australia has nada.

 

[kaiserchief13]

No, Australia is 1.5 times the size of Europe.

And soccer reference would literally mean a team from Northern Island would travel to Russia to play every 2nd week west to east which is a non existent scenario. It's just not a good comparison to make to bank on a travel argument.

LA teams also very rarely fly to NY and back to play 1 game, almost never, due to the travel factor. They generally jump state to state. And even though the population is sparser in the middle of the US than the coasts, its still has numerous sporting teams. Australia has nada.

They do in nfl but they usually get a week between games

 

[Coaster2012]

They do in nfl but they usually get a week between games

I'm actually not too knowledable on NFL. NBA is my sport. But I guess they get a neutral GF venue so swings and round abouts.

 

[kickazz]

No, Australia is 1.5 times the size of Europe.

And soccer reference would literally mean a team from Northern Island would travel to Russia to play every 2nd week west to east which is a non existent scenario. It's just not a good comparison to make to bank on a travel argument.

LA teams also very rarely fly to NY and back to play 1 game, almost never, due to the travel factor. They generally jump state to state. And even though the population is sparser in the middle of the US than the coasts, its still has numerous sporting teams. Australia has nada.

That Europe map is missing some large are countries like the Baltic States, Ukraine, Belarus and Russia (which is Europe up to the Ural Mountains).

 

[purplearmy]

Adelaide.

 

[Karim Abdul Yeo]

Richmond imo will take it now. They play good footy at the Gabba and West Coast haven't lately. WC back to QLD after round 13, sadly.

 

[Trahanas22]

No, Australia is 1.5 times the size of Europe.

And soccer reference would literally mean a team from Northern Island would travel to Russia to play every 2nd week west to east which is a non existent scenario. It's just not a good comparison to make to bank on a travel argument.

LA teams also very rarely fly to NY and back to play 1 game, almost never, due to the travel factor. They generally jump state to state. And even though the population is sparser in the middle of the US than the coasts, its still has numerous sporting teams. Australia has nada.

I know there has been a lot of animosity between Richmond and West Coast supporters lately, but I reply to this post purely as an outraged European! Your map is not a map of Europe, this is the real one:




You left out Iceland, all the Scandinavian countries, all the Baltic countries, Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and a big chunk of Russia, known to us as European Russia. Europe, in the East, finishes at the Urals. You basically left half of Europe out of your map. Furthermore, Australia is not a continent! Oceania is! And why is that? Because Oceania is bigger that Australia!


Cheers!