Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[Pleasedontfail11]

Winners and losers: Who really has had the toughest AFL fixture this season?

Forget the pre-season projections. Did your team have the most challenging fixture, or enjoyed an easier ride? We have crunched the numbers for you.

www.theage.com.au

Want me to get more or will the one just do?

It looked tough at the start of the season, however it turned out not to be as tough as it initially looked. The ended up playing the following placed teams twice:

1st, 3rd(5th after finals), 8th, 9th, 11th and 14th

So 3 in the 8 and 3 out of the 8.

 

[YeoShuey]

Keep trying you’ll eventually get a nibble

It’s logic. The team will crumble once the older players retire. Just like Geelong with losing Selwood.

 

[Mr Meow]

Geelong did not have the hardest schedule in 2023.

Out of interest, who did, and what is your rationale? The article posted seemed to quite neatly contradict your post.

 

[adammania9]

It’s logic. The team will crumble once the older players retire. Just like Geelong with losing Selwood.

Main core of Collingwood is younger

 

[Footy Smarts]

It looked tough at the start of the season, however it turned out not to be as tough as it initially looked. The ended up playing the following placed teams twice:

1st, 3rd(5th after finals), 8th, 9th, 11th and 14th

So 3 in the 8 and 3 out of the 8.

That hides some of the difficulty of our draw. Our timing of playing the teams that finished 11-15 was terrible.

Essendon finished 11th because they collapsed late in the season but were 4th and 5th when we played them.

Fremantle were terrible early in the year but went 8-8 with a percentage over 100 for the last 16 rounds. Both times we played them were in that last 2/3 of the year when they were decent.

When we played Gold Coast and Richmond we were a complete mess.

Basically apart from the 3 easy beats every game was against teams who were playing like mid table teams or better. Or where we were completely shot.

 

[Mr Meow]

That hides some of the difficulty of our draw. Our timing of playing the teams that finished 11-15 was terrible.

Essendon finished 11th because they collapsed late in the season but were 4th and 5th when we played them.

Fremantle were terrible early in the year but went 8-8 with a percentage over 100 for the last 16 rounds. Both times we played them were in that last 2/3 of the year when they were decent.

When we played Gold Coast and Richmond we were a complete mess.

Basically apart from the 3 easy beats every game was against teams who were playing like mid table teams or better. Or where we were completely shot.

We caught Richmond's revival while missing about 8 players and drew without Cameron against Sydney up there when they were also bouncing back.

The run of home games came too late, best summed up by being knocked out of finals contention the week before hosting the Bulldogs. Any team starting with 5 away games and sizeable injuries are going to struggle to make up the ground.

 

[Kappa]

YOUR club will fall off a cliff but my club will be fine

 

[Ashman23]

YOUR club will fall off a club but my club will be fine

 

[JackOutback]

Only way is up for the Eagles… maybe break even.

 

[Partridge]

That hides some of the difficulty of our draw. Our timing of playing the teams that finished 11-15 was terrible.

Essendon finished 11th because they collapsed late in the season but were 4th and 5th when we played them.

Fremantle were terrible early in the year but went 8-8 with a percentage over 100 for the last 16 rounds. Both times we played them were in that last 2/3 of the year when they were decent.

When we played Gold Coast and Richmond we were a complete mess.

Basically apart from the 3 easy beats every game was against teams who were playing like mid table teams or better. Or where we were completely shot.

That's not true. We played Fremantle the first time in Round 10. The second time was in Round 20. We had most of our players available, and it was at Geelong.

How were we a mess against Gold Coast? Stewart was back and it was prior to Guthrie getting injured.

To me all three games had the same explanation, we got outworked by better and more desperate opposition. Nothing to do with the draw.

 

[Partridge]

It looked tough at the start of the season, however it turned out not to be as tough as it initially looked. The ended up playing the following placed teams twice:

1st, 3rd(5th after finals), 8th, 9th, 11th and 14th

So 3 in the 8 and 3 out of the 8.

The problem is people assess the draw before the season has started. So you don't know who will be strong, moderate, or mediocre.

Not to mention that every team apart from the top few drops games they in theory should waltz in. If you start doing that with regularity, you're always going to struggle.

 

[Footy Smarts]

That's not true. We played Fremantle the first time in Round 10. The second time was in Round 20. We had most of our players available, and it was at Geelong.

It is true cause that's exactly what I said?

I said nothing about injuries with Fremantle. Just that we played them twice in the last 2/3 of the season when they went 8-8 and were much better than their dire early season form. By round 10 they were coming off a great win away to Sydney and a thumping of Hawthorn at home and had kick started their season.

From round 8 they were the 8th best team I think by wins and percentage. Saying we played the 14th placed team twice is true. But it's a bit misleading because we got them when they were decent rather than when they were shit early in the year.

Ditto Essendon who were sitting 5th going into our 2nd game against them but finished the year 11th.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

It is true cause that's exactly what I said?

I said nothing about injuries with Fremantle. Just that we played them twice in the last 2/3 of the season when they went 8-8 and were much better than their dire early season form. By round 10 they were coming off a great win away to Sydney and a thumping of Hawthorn at home and had kick started their season.

From round 8 they were the 8th best team I think by wins and percentage. Saying we played the 14th placed team twice is true. But it's a bit misleading because we got them when they were decent rather than when they were s**t early in the year.

Ditto Essendon who were sitting 5th going into our 2nd game against them but finished the year 11th.

Has they got someone a bit more challenging than you their record would have been 6-10 over that period

 

[VinnieB]

It’s logic. The team will crumble once the older players retire. Just like Geelong with losing Selwood.

Why didn’t Geelong crumble when Bartel, Ablett, Taylor, Stevie J, Chapman etc all retire?

 

[STPer18]

Why didn’t Geelong crumble when Bartel, Ablett, Taylor, Stevie J, Chapman etc all retire?

Because tHE CLifF iS c0mINg!

 

[LoungeLizard]

Why didn’t Geelong crumble when Bartel, Ablett, Taylor, Stevie J, Chapman etc all retire?

Because all the young players got old and replaced the old old players with new old players so they didin't lose any old players at all.

Geelong have worked it out, recruit old players and you never run out of them.

 

[BluesFever]

Richmond will struggle for 7+ years but they have 3 cups to polish so…

 

[Joao]

It is true cause that's exactly what I said?

I said nothing about injuries with Fremantle. Just that we played them twice in the last 2/3 of the season when they went 8-8 and were much better than their dire early season form. By round 10 they were coming off a great win away to Sydney and a thumping of Hawthorn at home and had kick started their season.

From round 8 they were the 8th best team I think by wins and percentage. Saying we played the 14th placed team twice is true. But it's a bit misleading because we got them when they were decent rather than when they were s**t early in the year.

Ditto Essendon who were sitting 5th going into our 2nd game against them but finished the year 11th.

The details aren't complete but the spirit is right. Geelong basically got us twice at our best (for 2023) last year. That 4 week block where we won 4 games before the bye and the last 5 or so games of the season we were better than decent, probably a bottom of the 8 quality side.

If you played us outside those times we were a genuine bottom 4 caliber side. Almost as much of a free hit as North was.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Might be worth a humble bump
Strapping Young Lad echoed similar in the pre season as well

It’s obviously Collingwood, they’re not as young as many think and some in the media pedal. Skewed by a couple of gun younger players but they’ve probably got another 2-3 years max to pinch another flag.

This myth that McRae is somehow a genius because he took them from down the bottom to top is so disingenuous or people just really are that dumb and simple thinkers. The year they were down the bottom was a clear outlier, they played in and almost won a grand final in 2018 FFS with most of the same players. It’s been a sustained run up or near the top of the ladder which will most likely come to an end soon just like it has for Hawthorn, Richmond then Geelong.

Tend to agree
They have a decent enough core (most teams do) but for the most part they are either pushing 30 or above not sure if they have the cattle to replace the aging stars who’s output will naturally drop off and experienced depth will get eaten away year over year looking for opportunities

The other concern would be that they have slowly been losing the players that would be the natural replacements for that older generation
Stephenson, Henry and Ginnivan would of all been locks in the 22 and a decent amount of experience/ age

But because they are moved on they will be forced to play younger and less experienced kids

What pies fans are saying now are very similar to what us tigers fans said a few years ago but our position now reflects what happened
Older stars aged out but due to being in the window the kids don’t get as much as a opportunity but all of a sudden they need to replace the old guard

 

[Lsta062]

Well well well, seems like quite a few had Collingwood slipping on their bingo cards. I didn’t pick this at all.

I did have Collingwood starting the season slow and recovering to make the top 4, but I didn’t have them starting this slow. I thought their drop off would come next year or the year after, but they don’t look near it right now.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Lollingwood looking a bit “cliffy”…

 

[Muddiemoose]

Well well well, seems like quite a few had Collingwood slipping on their bingo cards. I didn’t pick this at all.

I did have Collingwood starting the season slow and recovering to make the top 4, but I didn’t have them starting this slow. I thought their drop off would come next year or the year after, but they don’t look near it right now.

I’m also well aware it’s only the start of the very long season and will happily eat my words if the tide changes

But the cracks are definitely showing

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Might be worth a humble bump
Strapping Young Lad echoed similar in the pre season as well

It’s still early, but geez there was a couple of Pie fans in here who are likely going back to delete their posts if they get rolled again next week.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Muddiemoose

 

[YeoShuey]

Collingwood. Geelong are already off their cliff.

Yep. I was right.

Good call.