Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[rabidcrow]

You'd have to say right now we are at least 50/50 to make finals. That will be decided by how we can perform away from home, and how our young list holds up over a long season.

What I hope we are really careful of though, in the context of our rebuild, is going back to the old mindset of "make the 8 and anything can happen" that the club used to have under the old regime. Build a premiership side please. To win a flag you need to have a top quality squad, with elite midfielders. As a non-Melbourne / non-MCG tenant side we also have to be significantly better than our most likely Victorian opposition to beat them on their home deck on GF day. We need to be absolutely elite and probably at least five goals better than a Melbourne based opponent to jag a premiership.

We're not there yet. Dawson is showing us what the team is capable of with elite mids. Go get a couple more, then we're talking.

Encouraging that Silvers used the term “we need another sprinkling of elite talent” in terms of our recruiting objectives this year and I assume next. Another 2-3 elite recruits/ draftees and our depth will be premiership contending level


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[rabidcrow]

I still believe Finals Contenders .....knocking on the door of the 8

Just depends on what sort of injury run we have ....there are teams being decimated by injury, concussion, ands dangerous tackles ....anything can happen

And not many great sides around either. Really young sides have won 2-3 flags over the last 30 years.
But still one week at a time this early. We were 3-3 last year with some great wins and close losses - then lost somewhat unexpectedly at home to GWS and lost our next 5


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[George Kramer]

And not many great sides around either. Really young sides have won 2-3 flags over the last 30 years.
But still one week at a time this early. We were 3-3 last year with some great wins and close losses - then lost somewhat unexpectedly at home to GWS and lost our next 5


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We are in a much better place to last year. We are having good sized wins rather than scraping wins and we are able to blow teams away. Plus we have Dawson in the middle, Rankine and Max. Plus development in others and return to form in others like Milera.

 

[rabidcrow]

The commentary about Adelaide is getting a bit silly, particularly from Kingy, Cornes and now Buckley.

Just because we beat Carlton at home, again. Did it last year too. They haven't won in Adelaide since 2014 or something.

Carlton will go home and forget about this and play 15 games at the MCG.

Adelaide have hardly won away in 4 years, and the only way to be a success in this comp is to win in Melbourne. We won in Perth against the bottom team, and I think Ballarat last year.

We are playing in Tassie next week, and a win would be something.

But will our kids play well in the middle of winter against Collingwood at the MCG?

Will they be too tired?

Moreso, will other teams have worked out how to stop us? Sam Mitchell will have a plan next week, for sure.

Our team looked good last week, but so did 8 other teams. The youth will tire, we will get injuries, depth will get tested.

If we pass all these tests, then we are something, but there's a long way to go before we have a Crows Kids version of the Baby Bombers.

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Spot on. Our form has been great but this time last year we had beaten Port, Bulldogs in Ballarat and Richmond

Our style has been more impressive but we need to get a couple more wins before we “deserve” the amount of positive press we have had this week


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[Rotayjay]

Well here's some more positive press:

‘Should be thanking them’: Crows’ ‘sliding doors moment’ that changed club’s fortunes

‘Should be thanking them’: Bold trade rejection that paid off BIG time for sudden AFL contender

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[JP Sauce]

tbh, we should be 5-0.

Bizarrely bad goal kicking cost us in Rd 1
The heat of Rd 1 and the short break v long rested Tigers cost us in Rd2

We're playing a brand of footy that is a winning brand.

Dawson and Laird, ROB being more than serviceable, Top notch forward line.

Main issue will be defence. But we have a side that can score quickly. Few leads will be safe.

Why not now?

Nah we didn't deserve to win that Tigers game.

 

[MsTopG]

The commentary about Adelaide is getting a bit silly, particularly from Kingy, Cornes and now Buckley.

Just because we beat Carlton at home, again. Did it last year too. They haven't won in Adelaide since 2014 or something.

Carlton will go home and forget about this and play 15 games at the MCG.

Adelaide have hardly won away in 4 years, and the only way to be a success in this comp is to win in Melbourne. We won in Perth against the bottom team, and I think Ballarat last year.

We are playing in Tassie next week, and a win would be something.

But will our kids play well in the middle of winter against Collingwood at the MCG?

Will they be too tired?

Moreso, will other teams have worked out how to stop us? Sam Mitchell will have a plan next week, for sure.

Our team looked good last week, but so did 8 other teams. The youth will tire, we will get injuries, depth will get tested.

If we pass all these tests, then we are something, but there's a long way to go before we have a Crows Kids version of the Baby Bombers.

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Please never go near our playing group. That's enough to depress anyone. It's best to take one game at a time and enjoy the ride.

 

[Thylacinus]

Have they been hanging around here and caught our sordid schoolyard humor? At the 1:40 minute mark 'Butts...has a ... crack'.

Regarding our playing at the MCG, i was never confident back in 2017 and the lead up to it. Besides the psychological home ground advantage, a team needs some physical attributes. Becasue of its size and dimensions these include plenty of run, speed and athletic talls. We now tick these boxes far more than during the last decade. Additionally, I believe we are also developing a mental toughness to counter the home ground advantage.

 

[moogerfooger]

I'd like to see us win some away games before we get too carried away. Only one game outside AO so far, for a loss to the Giants.

 

[LoBu]

The boys won’t be tired going into the Collingwood game in June given we have the bye the week before.

And just on games vs Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, the past two years those games have been decided by less than a goal.

Good point, I just remember that Carlton loss last year, it was painful

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[LoBu]

Please never go near our playing group. That's enough to depress anyone. It's best to take one game at a time and enjoy the ride.

There is definitely a feeling that we are in uncharted waters, which is exciting in its unknown potential.

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[George Kramer]

Nah we didn't deserve to win that Tigers game.

If we played Dawson in the middle and Butts, yeah we should have. Plus Sloane playing more midfield has helped.

 

[NSolis]

We are in a much better place to last year. We are having good sized wins rather than scraping wins and we are able to blow teams away. Plus we have Dawson in the middle, Rankine and Max. Plus development in others and return to form in others like Milera.

Yeah, one big positive that stands out about the current side is the number of players around that key 50 game mark who look like they have turned a corner and are clearly AFL quality. Fogarty, Jones, McHenry, Sholl and Murphy have all had good seasons when this time last year they were fringe squad members playing SANFL or it was doubtful they'd make it. With those players coming on the performances are much more even, it doesn't feel like Walker has to have a big game for Adelaide to win.

Still think we will probably tire and drop off later in the year, given the age profile of the squad. Much better than being 3-3 after 6 in 2022 though.

 

[footy4ever]

Felt like Kane Cornes put some berley out at the beginning of the season to set up disappointment when/if we don't make finals.

I'm waiting to see if we can win a couple more at home and away over the next four games...then I might pull the finals trigger. I'm still nervous due to the last few years

The berley - Kane’s adopted the same MO as that campaigner Rucci. Both snakes in the grass. Set it up magnanimously while praying for failure so they can lampoon away to their hearts content. Hideous people.

 

[John Who]

I feel this is now an exciting period of emergence for us - genuine “organic growth”. The whole team has lifted, and we’re no longer reliant on the few usual suspects. How far we can go this year is quite the unknown, but at least I feel that we’ve built a strong foundation for a serious attempt at contending.

Also, I think team morale is at an all time high since 2017, which is what’s been missing for a big chunk of time over these pandemic years!

 

[MsTopG]

S

Yeah, one big positive that stands out about the current side is the number of players around that key 50 game mark who look like they have turned a corner and are clearly AFL quality. Fogarty, Jones, McHenry, Sholl and Murphy have all had good seasons when this time last year they were fringe squad members playing SANFL or it was doubtful they'd make it. With those players coming on the performances are much more even, it doesn't feel like Walker has to have a big game for Adelaide to win.

Still think we will probably tire and drop off later in the year, given the age profile of the squad. Much better than being 3-3 after 6 in 2022 though.

Sydney are a similar age profile and they didn't drop off last year. I think the swans and the crows have a lot of similarities The swans are most likely going to be our rivals for a while.

 

[Rotayjay]

An aggressive style of play with overlap running, precision passing and numerous options up forward. Multiple players having their breakout season or hitting career-best form all at the same time.

What year does that sound like? 2017. I'm not saying we're anywhere near making a grand final this year, but it's still fantastic to see the side clicking as a supporter. It gives you real hope for the future.

 

[MsTopG]

Some stuff on the crows at 15.25

Round 5 Full-On Football analysis with Daniel Hoyne in the studio - Tuesday April 18 - Sportsday

Round 5 Full-On Football analysis with Daniel Hoyne in the studio - Tuesday April 18

pca.st

 

[jenny61_99]

I’m saying yes.

We will be extremely hard to beat at home and we’ve just had the bonus of an extra win at home.

If we were to play GWS and Richmond again in the next 2 weeks we would beat them. So those calibre of sides won’t concern us going forward.

We are likely to lose agains the very best sides but we will also sneak the odd win against them, just like we have over the last couple of years but we are better now.

This isn’t a side that is lacking in some self belief now, now they know how good they can be. We’ve also got Dawson in the middle for good now, we’ve just injected a premier midfielder into our struggling midfield. We didn’t have that for the first 2 weeks.

Our forward line is scary good and will keep us in most games. Plus we have depth.

Last year Sydney surprised with a young list on the rise. Collingwood blew the comp away with their resurrection. I can see us being that team this year and making the top 4. We are currently in the top 4 based on key indicators and form.

Melbourne and Collingwood are locks for top 2 I believe. So that’s 2 spots left, Brisbane are flaky and struggle away from home. Geelong would need to be massive from here to get there but could. We are better than Carlton. Saints I expect their bubble to burst eventually. Bulldogs too flaky. Swans would be another serious contender but even they haven’t been that convincing.

Just did a quick ladder predictor not taking into account margins. Had us equal 4th with Saints but I might have been too generous with the Saints. Crucial games are home games against Brisbane, Sts and Swans.

I believe we are on the roll of something special. Time for you negatives to jump on board

Ok, who are you and what have you done with George?

 

[George Kramer]

Ok, who are you and what have you done with George?

I haven’t changed Jenny, the team has.

I’ve always been positive when it was warranted, just as I’ve been negative and critical when it’s warranted. The issue is over the last 5 years we’ve been a shit show.

I’ll give you an example. I’ve been critical of playing Dawson in defence. He’s playing midfield and wallah, we are flying and I’m a happy chappy.

What annoys me is posters who can’t be critical when clearly it’s been warranted and then having crack at posters for being critical when it’s clearly justified.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

tbh, we should be 5-0.

Bizarrely bad goal kicking cost us in Rd 1
The heat of Rd 1 and the short break v long rested Tigers cost us in Rd2

We're playing a brand of footy that is a winning brand.

Dawson and Laird, ROB being more than serviceable, Top notch forward line.

Main issue will be defence. But we have a side that can score quickly. Few leads will be safe.

Why not now?

TBF playing in 40 degree heat & 80% humidity, beat us ......GWS were used to those conditions, training every day in SYD's humidity .....we went too hard too early, and didn't adapt to the conditions

And then, what impact R1 had on R2 .....I guess we'll never truly know

Yes, issue is DEF (insert Butts) .......gee he's looking terrible

 

[jackster83]

TBF playing in 40 degree heat & 80% humidity, beat us ......GWS were used to those conditions, training every day in SYD's humidity .....we went too hard too early, and didn't adapt to the conditions

And then, what impact R1 had on R2 .....I guess we'll never truly know

Yes, issue is DEF (insert Butts) .......gee he's looking terrible

We played like millionaires in that GWS game. Taking low percentage shots instead of passing, not bothering to run defensively, etc.

In hindsight I think that game was us getting ahead of ourselves a bit after the preseason.

From R3 onwards we've played with a lot more intent.

 

[CrowBloke]

The commentary about Adelaide is getting a bit silly, particularly from Kingy, Cornes and now Buckley.

I don't know much about King as an analyst.
Kornes is a bandwagon-er; I can't remember him having an original thought especially wrt the Crows,
BUT
Buckley?
Great player --- yes, great --- and a calm individual with an oustanding footy brain. His record is outstanding.
2018 AFLCA Coach of the Year; proven tactical nous.

If Buckley thinks the Crows are the real deal, I am paying attention.
Problem is, so will many opposition Coaches.
Good problem to have. We're getting positive attention for the right reasons.
Nice change.
Our last 3 wins have just made our season harder and more competitive for us (oppo teams will not be taking us lightly), but I'm looking forward to the rest of this year.

After the Richmond loss, I was not thinking that, at all.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I haven’t changed Jenny, the team has.

I’ve always been positive when it was warranted, just as I’ve been negative and critical when it’s warranted. The issue is over the last 5 years we’ve been a s**t show.

I’ll give you an example. I’ve been critical of playing Dawson in defence. He’s playing midfield and wallah, we are flying and I’m a happy chappy.

What annoys me is posters who can’t be critical when clearly it’s been warranted and then having crack at posters for being critical when it’s clearly justified.

I wish you'd raised this B4 .....first time I've heard this POV from you

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I don't know much about King as an analyst.
Kornes is a bandwagon-er; I can't remember him having an original thought especially wrt the Crows,
BUT
Buckley?
Great player --- yes, great --- and a calm individual with an oustanding footy brain. His record is outstanding.
2018 AFLCA Coach of the Year; proven tactical nous.

If Buckley thinks the Crows are the real deal, I am paying attention.
Problem is, so will many opposition Coaches.
Good problem to have. We're getting positive attention for the right reasons.
Nice change.
Our last 3 wins have just made our season harder and more competitive for us (oppo teams will not be taking us lightly), but I'm looking forward to the rest of this year.

After the Richmond loss, I was not thinking that, at all.

David King works hand in glove with Champion Data .....his view on teams and how they're playing, is very much data driven from CD

He's super critical of FREO currently .....reckons the holding the ball in DEF & chipping it around, amassing big stats for defenders ... will have FREO going nowhere near a flag

King is also very big on how teams score .....turnover, stoppage, transition & centre clearances ....says alot about the team's health