Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[TheRankineFile]

He's playing well enough to get another year. Same as Tex.

Just saying it wasnt the turning point. And ... its round 5.

 

[rabidcrow]

I'm happy with the last 3 results but I recall the previous 2 matches. We need to put the brakes on it. Although the scoring and field play has been exciting we are still a long way off it. A loss to Hawthorn and all will be lost as our run after that game is tough. The recruiting is showing promise. Quality like Rankine and Dawson have been brilliant at a reasonable cost. Gibbs deal still gives me nightmares.
I am not convinced on Nick's.

When our effort level is there do you like our style of play? Have you enjoyed the way we have played 16/20 quarters this year? Because of the answer is yes then you have to credit Nicks and the coaches for the game plan they have implemented. He is definitely a good coach. He has managed to get through the worst of a rebuild and have the squad up and about which is a great achievement that not many can do.
It gets harder from here though as expectations rise, opposition focus intensifies and ultimately that will tell if he is a great coach or not - getting through those steps and bringing home a Cup or two


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[rabidcrow]

And I’ve seen the people that are critical also give credit where credit is due and some people can’t see that, a lot of the criticism was what was produced in the now, I’ve been around footy long enough to see that

At the end of the day the more extreme critics have generally disregarded general consensus around rebuilds. And that’s okay to be impatient but that’s generally where the back and forth has been

There are still people on this board even up to a couple of weeks ago using sarcasm around the importance of playing 50 plus games and how now the player will be instantly good because he reached 50 games

Reality is this is true. Some players take 80 plus games. Last year we had the youngest side in every single round. Some of us got that and understood it would take time - others didn’t and criticised coach/club/recruiting relentlessly.

It has turned quicker than I think all of us expected - still a long way to go - but you see the polar opposite groups are now much closer together

And yes I agree some don’t criticise the club at all and that probably adds to the negative group frustration but I suggest that goes both ways


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[Rotayjay]

It's very hard to get a read on a team that disappointed like it did in the first two rounds and impressed like it did in the next three. I get that we showed some good signs during Rounds 1 and 2, but we still lost and hence why they were disappointing.

I'm excited.

 

[Golumless]

I've been very pleasantly surprised by the improvements shown in the last 3 rounds.
Looking back, yes, there were 'signs' but I tended to disregard them with fading hope crushed by the losses.
I have to admit, I did not see the rebuild happening and I was not impressed by the 'improvement' from 7 to 8 wins 2021/22. I ignored totally the high-scoring wins at the end of last year. I think I was just too despondent to think ahead, not knowing at the time that Rankine was coming nor that Michalanney was on his way and that both would prove so influential.
Hindsight. Always 20/20.
Lots of pieces that looked like outliers (eg Fog's settling into goalkicking beast) didn't even look like pieces, but just "Oh, ok, Fog's coming good, about time", all started to fit. I didn't see it.

Thursday's first 1/4, then their responses to the fightback charges that Carlton made, then the runaway win was their best game since 2017.

I also ignored the high scoring aspect, seeing a garbage gameplan is going to be garbage, no matter how harderer you try. Scoring was not going to be difficult when opportunities came, if they came. The main thing I took from those games was that we played spoiler twice. It's not that uncommon that a broken team can jump an opposition side when the cards line up just right and in both those games, those cards lined up, with a retirement of a legend (who decided to wind the clock back) and the most influential player of another club returning from cancer. We absorbed both punches and did enough to win, which was rather impressive for side as inexperienced as ours. Carlton tripping over their own dick was just that.

I'd also argue we showed a lot more improvement then what win/loss indicated. We got younger/more inexperienced in '22, and football does trend towards being an old mans game. We limited the beltings, played a style that could form the basis of a proper premiership assault (seeing it was a pressure the ball carrier or perish kind of deal), and we're beginning to sort out preventing the opposition from transitioning come the end of the year. It's a season I expect is going to look a whole lot better come the end of this year, seeing Hawks are going through something similar (with a slightly more experienced lineup) and for the most part, have looked horrible.

Definitely was. Including being very '17 like in how we jumped them early, absorb some blows and KO'd later.

 

[Golumless]

He's playing well enough to get another year. Same as Tex.

Lets talk in round 20.

Still, I probably lean towards this being Tex's final year, regardless how he is playing. It's time for Fog and Thilly to take the reigns.

 

[CrowBloke]

Lets talk in round 20.

Still, I probably lean towards this being Tex's final year, regardless how he is playing. It's time for Fog and Thilly to take the reigns.

There have not been many players that I have missed after they have left/retired/whatever.
The team is always changing/evolving (or devolving as it did 2018-20). It's the nature of the beast.

Lemme see ... ... in no particular order, only as they pop into my head:
Modra (GODra, Gravity-defting excitement machine)
McLeod (combo of silk and premium oil, leaving most in his slick wake)
Edwards (loved him, no fuss or drama, seriously underrated, damaging/effective)
Porplyzia (loved him, such clean hands/balance, too bad about the shoulder ), likewise Greenwood.
Burton (the Birdman, not the galah later)
D. Jarman (KEY to our 2 Flags)
Roo (the player --- tough, nearly handballed as far on his L as he could kick. Dawson will be our next Brownlow Medallist and on current form is heading for AFLPA MVP 2023, if not AA and Cpatain of the Year)
Rehn (I'd love for RoB to get some coaching from him)
... ...
Betts (freakish, loved playing the game, his joy was obvious).

However, when I think about Walker not being there any more (and his time is coming after this year or the next), I get a knot in my guts and a really empty feeling. You can take the piss out of this, but my eyes are stinging just thinking about it. No kidding.
I'm old, so maybe it's wind. Or insomnia, LOL@me!
Watching him transition from this:

to this:

has been a helluva ride.
Walker was a big, goofy, Crows-loving Broken Hill boy whose facial expression often said, "How good is this??" and still does to this day. Club legend. Currently forward-line Mentor and glue.

His blood is tri-coloured; wears his love for the Club on his sleeve. Jeez I'll miss him.

It'd be a wild dream-come-true if he retired at the end of next year with a Premiership medal
(Are you thinking TELL HIM HE'S DREAMIN? Yeah, I know it <<rant rave dribble >> )

 

[rabidcrow]

Lets talk in round 20.

Still, I probably lean towards this being Tex's final year, regardless how he is playing. It's time for Fog and Thilly to take the reigns.

Assuming stays fit I think he can play in 2025. Fog and Filthy make the team anyway, Gollant and McAdam need to push him out


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[Rotayjay]

If we make finals this year, Tex will be more than a handy player. I can see him hanging up the boots at the end of 2024, maybe 2025. Being one of the great AFC clubmen, it would be my dream to get him a flag, but they don't grow on trees that's for sure.

 

[LoBu]

I'm impressed by Rahilly.
Future head coach somewhere?
What do you think?

Rahilly's super impressive, his record is excellent, it can't be a coincidence that Fogarty has come good under his guidance.

I'd be surprised if many knew him outside of Geelong and Adelaide, he hasn't got the profile of a 200-game player, instead played at Geelong including lots of VFL, coached there for 10+ years, now making a splash outside of the sphere of Melbourne media.

In his first year, Geelong won the premiership by kicking 18.11 (119).

It won't be long before they start to dig deeper into our forwards and why it's going so well (besides the talent - lots of clubs have talent) - and start talking about Rahilly.

A similar thing happened to David Teague - ended up Carlton's head coach.

Rahilly still has something to prove, never coached another premiership after that first year - and missed last year's. Rebuilding a team and forward line not considered the same as coming in at the end of a successful 5 year period - Chris Scott had the same issue until last year.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

No.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Maybe.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

The pendulum swings quickly

 

[Rotayjay]

If Richmond beats Melbourne tomorrow night, we'll sit inside the top 4 at round's end regardless of the Anzac Day result. That's not too shabby.

 

[Golumless]

Well, we're getting the luck we need to make it, and that draw opens up in the second half of the year.

Jag a win against Collingwood or Saints at home and things begin look rosy for our first final appearance.

 

[Glenno23]

Pies
Cats away
Saints
Dogs away
Lions

We'll know in 5 weeks where we're really at

 

[70lethal]

Rahilly's super impressive, his record is excellent, it can't be a coincidence that Fogarty has come good under his guidance.

I'd be surprised if many knew him outside of Geelong and Adelaide, he hasn't got the profile of a 200-game player, instead played at Geelong including lots of VFL, coached there for 10+ years, now making a splash outside of the sphere of Melbourne media.

In his first year, Geelong won the premiership by kicking 18.11 (119).

It won't be long before they start to dig deeper into our forwards and why it's going so well (besides the talent - lots of clubs have talent) - and start talking about Rahilly.

A similar thing happened to David Teague - ended up Carlton's head coach.

Rahilly still has something to prove, never coached another premiership after that first year - and missed last year's. Rebuilding a team and forward line not considered the same as coming in at the end of a successful 5 year period - Chris Scott had the same issue until last year.

Surely the argument can go the otherway.
He took over a 2 time premiership side forward line and one should remember the 2007 scorecard.
Hawkins, Johnson, Bartel, Selwood, Varcoe were the main goal kickers in 2011, not as if he did anyrhing new.

2 years after he leaves their forward has another huge GF day out.

Longmire has only lost 3 games by over 10 goals and 2 of them by Geelong after Rahilly left.

Fogarty and TT actually said seeing someone outside the club had made a significant difference.

Having Dawson running free out the middle last week vs under pressure this week probably tells a bigger story

 

[Rankine2Thilthorpe]

The berley - Kane’s adopted the same MO as that campaigner Rucci. Both snakes in the grass. Set it up magnanimously while praying for failure so they can lampoon away to their hearts content. Hideous people.

Rucci was a lot more transparent with it, but Kane does do it too.

Michelangelo was on another level of trolling though.

 

[davos44]

Pies
Cats away
Saints
Dogs away
Lions

We'll know in 5 weeks where we're really at

We have to win 2 of those to have a good shot at finals.

Geelong in Geelong is a definite loss (unless we finally figure out that going long on the outer wing = OOF and
Dogs in Ballarat is going to be a 20% chance at best.

Saints and Lions at home have to be wins. Yikes.

Pies this week is the swing game, we played well against them last year and we match up fairly well I feel.

 

[LoBu]

Surely the argument can go the otherway.
He took over a 2 time premiership side forward line and one should remember the 2007 scorecard.
Hawkins, Johnson, Bartel, Selwood, Varcoe were the main goal kickers in 2011, not as if he did anyrhing new.

2 years after he leaves their forward has another huge GF day out.

Longmire has only lost 3 games by over 10 goals and 2 of them by Geelong after Rahilly left.

Fogarty and TT actually said seeing someone outside the club had made a significant difference.

Having Dawson running free out the middle last week vs under pressure this week probably tells a bigger story

It's a fair argument. I guess the point you make is that we really don't know his influence.

Geelong remained relevant during Rahilly's tenure.

This club has certainly improved since Rahilly arrived, credit to Nicks is given across the board, particularly for his ability to get the culture right (the latter even on this board).

Our forwards are looking formidable, turning them into match-winners takes a team (village). How much credit Rahilly gets remains to be seen.

On the side, Josh Jenkins was praising him highly on the weekend, said sometimes the best coaches aren't the best players. Also took credit for bringing him over to Adelaide having taken him on a pub crawl up ANZAC highway as a way of showing him around Adelaide before he signed with the crows.

 

[70lethal]

It's a fair argument. I guess the point you make is that we really don't know his influence.

Geelong remained relevant during Rahilly's tenure.

This club has certainly improved since Rahilly arrived, credit to Nicks is given across the board, particularly for his ability to get the culture right (the latter even on this board).

Our forwards are looking formidable, turning them into match-winners takes a team (village). How much credit Rahilly gets remains to be seen.

On the side, Josh Jenkins was praising him highly on the weekend, said sometimes the best coaches aren't the best players. Also took credit for bringing him over to Adelaide having taken him on a pub crawl up ANZAC highway as a way of showing him around Adelaide before he signed with the crows.

You cant imagine him lasting 10 years at the cats if he was a Ben Hart that's for sure.
The draftees that have come into the club since he's been there have settled way better than the previous 5 years and the strike rate of kids making it looks way higher imo
Top 36 picks since his arrival in 2020 TT, Pedlar, Cook, Berry, Rachele, Soligo, Michalanney. One can argue how many will be guns but its more than half.

 

[1970crow]

Well, we're getting the luck we need to make it, and that draw opens up in the second half of the year.

Jag a win against Collingwood or Saints at home and things begin look rosy for our first final appearance.

With our results so far, I see us as being around the 10th mark. That will change if we win a couple of the next 5.

 

[UcantCme]

We have to win 2 of those to have a good shot at finals.

Geelong in Geelong is a definite loss (unless we finally figure out that going long on the outer wing = OOF and
Dogs in Ballarat is going to be a 20% chance at best.

Saints and Lions at home have to be wins. Yikes.

Pies this week is the swing game, we played well against them last year and we match up fairly well I feel.

Why 20% dogs in Ballarat?

We have beaten them there before


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[Dangarman]

Looking at the draw, of the 19 18 17 games left, I'd call us rank outsiders for the Geelong @KP, Pies and Dees @ the 'G, and Lions @ the Gabba.

The other 15 14 13 games I'd give us at least a one in 3 chance of winning, some of them we'd even start favourites.
We win about half of them we get to 9 10 or 10 11 wins.

We win two thirds of them we get to 12 wins, which is probably not enough in a 23 game season.

We've already dropped 2 games against the teams in our 'contention bracket' (IMO at least...), so unless we collect some marks from one or two of the four 'extra credit' field trips, were going to struggle to get to the grade that gets us into Uni.

Nice three four wins under a lot of media attention. Next week we gotta show that we haven't shoved our collective heads up our collective arses learned from the Tassie reality check and regroup, because Collingwood won't let us back in if we give them half the chances we gave Hawthorn.

 

[1990crow]

Why 20% dogs in Ballarat?

We have beaten them there before


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Literally last year.