Will we make finals?

[Next Waiting]

My take on the Cripps saga is that if I were in trouble and Jeff Gleeson rocked up from legal aid to represent me, I think I'd choose to represent myself.

 

[dergert]

No.

Lock thread.

 

[Sentinel]

• Dogs to win 2 -
• Carlton to lose 2 -
• Saints to lose 1 -

 

[hoianbulldog]

• Dogs to win 2 -
• Carlton to lose 2 -
• Saints to lose 1 -

Deep analysis, looking forward to further posts over the coming days. (Inset emoji here).

It really is that simple for us..........us winning 2 could be our achiles heel.

 

[TommyD13]

Step one complete

 

[dogwatch]

So only four games matter now.

I had a look at the odds quoted by a couple of online bookies. The following calculation is based on the odds from one of them (they are pretty similar).

​

EDIT after our win over GWS: see the updated table below.​

What it is saying is that the bookies are quoting us at $3.00 to make the eight after St Kilda's loss tonight BUT they really rate us about $4.40 $5.40

If you want me to do the calculations with different bookies' odds that's easy. Just tell me what odds you want and it'll flow through.

NB: "Normalised" means after taking out the margin the bookies add to make their profit.

 

[MYOB]

So only four games matter now.

I had a look at the odds quoted by a couple of online bookies. The following calculation is based on the odds from one of them (they are pretty similar).



What it is saying is that the bookies are quoting us at $3.00 to make the eight after St Kilda's loss tonight BUT they really rate us about $4.40

If you want me to do the calculations with different bookies' odds that's easy. Just tell me what odds you want and it'll flow through.

NB: "Normalised" means after taking out the margin the bookies add to make their profit.

What about Richmond losing there last 2.

 

[dogwatch]

What about Richmond losing there last 2.

Please don't make my life any more complicated than it already is.

 

[dogwatch]

What about Richmond losing there last 2.

OK, OK. I can't resist a challenge ...

This is only rough but:

A. Chances of Dogs winning both = 47.37% (based on the earlier calculations)​

​

We then need either Richmond or Carlton to lose both. So:

​

B. Chances of Carlton losing both = 39.12%​

C. Chances of Richmond losing both = 11.5% (approx)​

​

The chances of Dogs making the finals = A * (B+C)​

= 24%​

That brings our odds down to about $3.17 ... I think.

 

[Next Waiting]

OK, OK. I can't resist a challenge ...

This is only rough but:

A. Chances of Dogs winning both = 47.37% (based on the earlier calculations)​

​

We then need either Richmond or Carlton to lose both. So:

​

B. Chances of Carlton losing both = 39.12%​

C. Chances of Richmond losing both = 11.5% (approx)​

​

The chances of Dogs making the finals = A * (B+C)​

= 24%​

That brings our odds down to about $3.17 ... I think.

*always calculate responsibly

 

[ScragCity]

OK, OK. I can't resist a challenge ...

This is only rough but:

A. Chances of Dogs winning both = 47.37% (based on the earlier calculations)​

​

We then need either Richmond or Carlton to lose both. So:

​

B. Chances of Carlton losing both = 39.12%​

C. Chances of Richmond losing both = 11.5% (approx)​

​

The chances of Dogs making the finals = A * (B+C)​

= 24%​

That brings our odds down to about $3.17 ... I think.

I love watching you calculate probability DW

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

OK, OK. I can't resist a challenge ...

This is only rough but:

A. Chances of Dogs winning both = 47.37% (based on the earlier calculations)​

​

We then need either Richmond or Carlton to lose both. So:

​

B. Chances of Carlton losing both = 39.12%​

C. Chances of Richmond losing both = 11.5% (approx)​

​

The chances of Dogs making the finals = A * (B+C)​

= 24%​

That brings our odds down to about $3.17 ... I think.

So this is what you get up to at 1am.

 

[Munnez]

Deep analysis, looking forward to further posts over the coming days. (Inset emoji here).

It really is that simple for us..........us winning 2 could be our achiles heel.

Has been nearly all season

 

[ScragCity]

So only four games matter now.

I had a look at the odds quoted by a couple of online bookies. The following calculation is based on the odds from one of them (they are pretty similar).



What it is saying is that the bookies are quoting us at $3.00 to make the eight after St Kilda's loss tonight BUT they really rate us about $4.40

If you want me to do the calculations with different bookies' odds that's easy. Just tell me what odds you want and it'll flow through.

NB: "Normalised" means after taking out the margin the bookies add to make their profit.

What's the profit margin for the bookies based on these numbers? I'm getting 4.8%

Also, how did you come up with $4.40 in the normalised odds?

 

[dogwatch]

What's the profit margin for the bookies based on these numbers? I'm getting 4.8%

Also, how did you come up with $4.40 in the normalised odds?

Yes the bookies' margin seems to be about 5% which is lower than I'd expected. I suppose if you have high volumes you can do OK with that. The Carl v Coll game was extremely low though. $1.80 & $2.20 - that's about 1%.

Thanks for asking about the $4.40. When I started to write the explanation I realised I had made an error in not adding on the initial stake (the odds parlance they used in my wasted youth didn't include the stake). So it should be $5.40, as you perhaps realised.

It is calculated as ((1-W)/W)+1 where W is our chance of winning according to the bookies (normalised). I calculated that chance to be 18.53%
So (1-0.1853) = 0.8147
0.8147/0.1853 = 4.396654
4.396654 + 1 = 5.396654

Which equals $5.40 when rounded up. That's roughly 9-2 in the old parlance.

I've now changed the spreadsheet to reflect this.

 

[ScragCity]

Is there any reason that ((1-W)/W)+1 can't be simplified to 1/W?

 

[doggies ftw]

You guys are smart can you look over my bets and tell me why I lose so much money

 

[Sentinel]

• Dogs to win 2 -
• Carlton to lose 2 -
• Saints to lose 1 -

Dogs to win 2 -
Carlton to lose 2 -
Saints to lose 1 -

In before we win next week, Carlton lose both, but we somehow don't make up that 1% and miss anyway..

 

[glenashley]

Dogs to win 2 -
Carlton to lose 2 -
Saints to lose 1 -

In before we win next week, Carlton lose both, but we somehow don't make up that 1% and miss anyway..

I've run the figures.

If the results all go our way by single digits, we may still miss on percentage!

 

[The Inbetweener]

I've run the figures.

If the results all go our way by single digits, we may still miss on percentage!

Yep. Think Carlton still have 4 goals buffer?

 

[Sentinel]

The chances of 3 matches going that way and not making up the % is very slim. Not really worth considering at this point, unless tonight is a very close loss for Carlton.

 

[Anja_Nees]

The chances of 3 matches going that way and not making up the % is very slim. Not really worth considering at this point, unless tonight is a very close loss for Carlton.

True, but would have been nice to kill the % question today!

 

[dogwatch]

Is there any reason that ((1-W)/W)+1 can't be simplified to 1/W?

Shhhh! The point is to make it look complex and arcane.

 

[dogwatch]

Updated table based on latest bookies' odds (table now includes the possibility of Richmond losing both but still doesn't cater for us missing out on percentage):

EDIT: table updated after Melb-Carlton game. See below.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Updated table based on latest bookies' odds (table now includes the possibility of Richmond losing both but still doesn't cater for us missing out on percentage):

Fails to take into account the likelyhood of a draw for richmond and Dogs pounding on the % in tassie.