Will we make finals?

[dogwatch]

Fails to take into account the likelyhood of a draw for richmond and Dogs pounding on the % in tassie.

You're just looking for trouble aren't you?

 

[Next Waiting]

Other results that we should wish/hope for.

Eagles upset Freo in the local derby tonight
Brisbane beat Melbourne next week

If all other results go our way

Week One Elimination Final against Melbourne at the G

 

[Dogs Rule]

Fails to take into account the likelyhood of a draw for richmond and Dogs pounding on the % in tassie.

I can see us kicking 25 goals next week.

Not on the ground, just my head.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I feel physically ill having to cheer for Melbourne having to win by as large a margin as possible

 

[hutchy31]

Yes the bookies' margin seems to be about 5% which is lower than I'd expected. I suppose if you have high volumes you can do OK with that. The Carl v Coll game was extremely low though. $1.80 & $2.20 - that's about 1%.

Thanks for asking about the $4.40. When I started to write the explanation I realised I had made an error in not adding on the initial stake (the odds parlance they used in my wasted youth didn't include the stake). So it should be $5.40, as you perhaps realised.

It is calculated as ((1-W)/W)+1 where W is our chance of winning according to the bookies (normalised). I calculated that chance to be 18.53%
So (1-0.1853) = 0.8147
0.8147/0.1853 = 4.396654
4.396654 + 1 = 5.396654

Which equals $5.40 when rounded up. That's roughly 9-2 in the old parlance.

I've now changed the spreadsheet to reflect this.

Bookies margin would be closer to 10-12% typically I believe, but I have enjoyed the mathematical posts

Wouldn’t it be amazing if we won both and Carlton lose both but they still get in by percentage - like last year when we missed top four by a kick?

Well, not amazing - infuriating.

 

[hutchy31]

I feel physically ill having to cheer for Melbourne having to win by as large a margin as possible

I’ve put money on it to make it feel like there’s an additional purpose.

Good thing is that if they win tonight by bucketloads they’ll still likely miss top four if they lose at the Gabba next week.

 

[dogwatch]

You guys are smart can you look over my bets and tell me why I lose so much money

I think your problem starts when you open your wallet.

If you must bet, only bet an amount that doesn't hurt you if you lose, whether that's five bucks, 50 bucks or some other amount.

 

[Sentinel]

I feel physically ill having to cheer for Melbourne having to win by as large a margin as possible

I believe a 4-5 goal win is about all we need to make % irrelevant.

This week doesn't make a big difference to Melbourne's fortunes, get on them for the win then a loss to Brisbane next week which likely sees them finish outside the top 4. Sure would make the dynasty a little shakey.

 

[Sentinel]

Dogs to win 2 -
Carlton to lose 2 -
Saints to lose 1 -

In before we win next week, Carlton lose both, but we somehow don't make up that 1% and miss anyway..

Dogs to win 2 -

Carlton to lose 2 -

Saints to lose 1 -

 

[VL3OJ]

Like a goal overturned incorrectly by the ARC? #arcGate #bunkerGate

Bookies margin would be closer to 10-12% typically I believe, but I have enjoyed the mathematical posts

Wouldn’t it be amazing if we won both and Carlton lose both but they still get in by percentage - like last year when we missed top four by a kick?

Well, not amazing - infuriating.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Someone smarter than me work out the margins for us to catch their %. I estimate about 2.5 goals?

 

[The Inbetweener]

Someone smarter than me work out the margins for us to catch their %. I estimate about 2.5 goals?

 

[dogwatch]

Updated after the Melb-Carlton game. Percentage could well come into it now. (Not catered for in this table)

Note also that the bookies have reduced our price for making the finals from $3 to $2.50.
One betting site has Carlton and Collingwood at $1.90 each. Another has Collingwood a clear $1.75 favourite with Carlton at $2.10. No doubt there will be further fluctuations during the week.

 

[Sentinel]

FWIW, there's roughly 2 goals to make up the % difference across both games. Highly unlikely but if today's scores were repeated in respective games Carlton would scrape in by a bee's dick. Hard to see how 4 games could have results fall the right way with combined margin of less than 4 goals, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Next Waiting]

Updated after the Melb-Carlton game. Percentage could well come into it now. (Not catered for in this table)

Note also that the bookies have reduced our price for making the finals from $3 to $2.50.
One betting site has Carlton and Collingwood at $1.90 each. Another has Collingwood a clear $1.75 favourite with Carlton at $2.10. No doubt there will be further fluctuations during the week.

Where's the smart money going Kenny?

 

[AFDogs]

You just know Carlton vs Collingwood is going to be a close game.

Therefore we need to pump Hawks. No less

 

[Sentinel]

You just know Carlton vs Collingwood is going to be a close game.

Therefore we need to pump Hawks. No less

"Pump" by 2 goals. That's about all we need to do.

 

[Dog 36]

If Collingwood win tomorrow have they got anything at stake to play for vs Carlton?

Seems they win tomorrow they are guaranteed top 4

 

[AFDogs]

If Collingwood win tomorrow have they got anything at stake to play for vs Carlton?

Seems they win tomorrow they are guaranteed top 4

I’d imagine that ending Carlton’s season would be motivating enough for them

 

[Sentinel]

If Collingwood win tomorrow have they got anything at stake to play for vs Carlton?

Seems they win tomorrow they are guaranteed top 4

Home final, if Brisbane beat Melbourne on the Friday. If they win tomorrow then Melbourne win vs Brisbane, its Collingwood vs Melbourne at the MCG regardless.

 

[MYOB]

If Collingwood win tomorrow have they got anything at stake to play for vs Carlton?

Seems they win tomorrow they are guaranteed top 4

Correct, that is why we want the Swans to win tomorrow.
But if Collingwood win, they'll still need to win the following week to finish top 2

 

[Next Waiting]

If Collingwood win tomorrow have they got anything at stake to play for vs Carlton?

Seems they win tomorrow they are guaranteed top 4

Yes, that's right.

Sydney should have the greater incentive to win. Lose and they almost certainly won't make top 4. Collingwood can lose this week and still make top 4 if they beat Carlton.

For those wanting us to make finals, a Sydney win is the best result and gives us the best chance.

 

[Sentinel]

Yes, that's right.

Sydney should have the greater incentive to win. Lose and they almost certainly won't make top 4. Collingwood can lose this week and still make top 4 if they beat Carlton.

For those wanting us to make finals, a Sydney win is the best result and gives us the best chance.

Feels so dirty supporting Melbourne and now Sydney this weekend. Need a good bath after tomorrow.

 

[Next Waiting]

I’d imagine that ending Carlton’s season would be motivating enough for them

Carlton were very competitive tonight and on that performance would be a difficult first week opponent.

Pies might need extra motivation to go with that sort of intent. A Sydney win tomorrow might give it to them. It's the last straw left to clutch at....

 

[TommyD13]

On average we score 90 points per game. Carlton score 85. If you just use these as a rough guide:

WB 90
HAW 76

CAR 85
COL 86

Is the closest case of a positive scenario for us. Anything above this makes it more and more comfortable.