Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

[ScrappyCoCo]

Apparently this was Manly Beach today

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(Source: news.com)

Melbourne suburbs were very quiet at the start of the week. Today...the roads were very busy and I have never seen so many people walking and jogging. I was shocked today. Hopefully the poor forecast for the weekend will keep people at home a bit more.

 

[Les Malone]

Apparently this was Manly Beach today

View attachment 851691

(Source: news.com)

I don't have a problem with that, not sure what you expect people to do, i have been for a swim every day in Perth at a Northern beach and not as busy as that but the carpark can be getting in and out of cars.

Many people walking together may actually live together and the others seem a reasonable distance apart.

 

[Taylor]

Do we have any graphs of infected #s that exclude people returning from overseas testing positive in isolation, or the same from cruise ships etc?

My primary concern is with the embers of community transmission flaring up ten days from whatever is today (yesterday, tomorrow etc). Our numbers are looking much better but if they were inflated because of so many people coming back with the virus and then testing positive without passing it onto the community they are not relevant when it comes to the impact of social distancing measures.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Not only that, but as i linked earlier from the DCMO (UK) stated that you need to test people 28 days after infection at the least to get a real gauge on antibodies, that will give a you better idea on what % spread is through the general population and not just the sick.

The Chinese study appears to have only tested people inside that 28 day period and quite substantially at that, so therefore does it accurately represent the rate of infection?.

Makes you wonder if this is actually correct (DCMO) whether the Chinese study was even dinkum or just another con job.

Now that would be a conspiracy!.

I think there's enough misunderstanding on these issues that the Chinese study just got it wrong. They didn't wait the required 28 days to carry out reliable antibody tests - resulting in false negatives.

In addition, they tried to test multiple scenarios in one study and presented the results poorly. Then you get people reading their study trying to draw invalid conclusions based on the very small size and non-typical sample.

 

[DIG]

Just looking at Victoria because they are the only ones giving regular updates of recoveries. It appears that the lag between diagnosis and outcomes (recoveries + deaths) is about 9 days.
View attachment 851698
Based on the 9 days we need to have daily increases below View attachment 851699-1 = 8% to make any dent in the number of people who are infected.
We have reached this benchmark 3 of the last 4 days.

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I haven’t done maths like that since high school so no idea if this is the same thing or not, but - I did hear yesterday that 3 of the previous 4 days the number of recoveries in Vic exceeded the number of new cases.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Epstein was killed to stop him revealing other high profile offenders. That's not conspiracy theory. it's Occam's razor.

Up untill he actually died a lot of related topics were generally seen in the nutter category

I'm enjoying it - work from home. ALL the crap meetings and interactions at work gone. Much more productive when I want to be. If I want to go for a bike ride in the middle of the day I can. Lovely weather. Can drink at the work place.

Should have been done 20 years ago
.bloody hr

 

[Marcel Proust]

Is the two cans of food, per customer rule, at supermarkets True or fake news? Thanks

Almost as scary at the bottle shop rumors. On the plus side Dan Murphy does delivery

 

[Taylor]

Is the two cans of food, per customer rule, at supermarkets True or fake news? Thanks

Almost as scary at the bottle shop rumors. On the plus side Dan Murphy does delivery

I don't know if that's true but if you wanted to keep the population calm about food supply you'd be telling them the supply shortage on the shelf is the result of people buying too much right up until there was nothing coming in the door at all because the supply chain is exhausted. There's nothing to gain by telling people the truth if that truth would cause panic.

 

[Mofra]

Is the two cans of food, per customer rule, at supermarkets True or fake news? Thanks

Almost as scary at the bottle shop rumors. On the plus side Dan Murphy does delivery

Two cans of vegetables per customer was enforced last time I shopped.
I pointed out that tomatoes are actually a fruit but I was just met with a blank stare.

 

[Number37]

Cool, anybody interesting?

Richard Branson

 

[Roby]

Apparently this was Manly Beach today

View attachment 851691

(Source: news.com)

People here are clueless if they think were out of it. Just as they were at the start of this thread.

 

[Roby]

Melbourne suburbs were very quiet at the start of the week. Today...the roads were very busy and I have never seen so many people walking and jogging. I was shocked today. Hopefully the poor forecast for the weekend will keep people at home a bit more.

True.

 

[its free real estate]

Based on unreliable data about infection rate and true cause of death.

I'm not going to play the game of my expert is better than yours but I thought the letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology was worth considering.

I’m not citing any experts, just going by stats as reported. Maybe the stats in Germany are wrong - but all the stats, everywhere? Does Dr Bhakdi update his thinking with a higher German death rate?

There has been minimisation of this crisis by various experts (including the WHO) since the beginning. Each week they are proven incorrect.

 

[Pessimistic]

Apparently this was Manly Beach today

View attachment 851691

(Source: news.com)

Becoming clear its the 'better off' suburbs who don't think it applies to them. yet they'd be the ones taking a bigger risk?

Not sure Manly supermarkets will be safe in few days time, as everyne centralises. of course some of the campaigners will be doing supermarket runs to 'safer' suburbs

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Waging war stimulates economies. Plenty of people get rich from wars.

If you win them. Someone has to foot the bill

 

[its free real estate]

Correct me if i am wrong on this, but if the Chinese were looking for anti bodies as a means of identifying people who have had covid 19 and recovered but were not necessarily sick this doctor (DCMO) says you should wait at least 28 days before attempting to check antibodies to give you a good indication.



On the study you linked it appears most of the testing was done prior to the 28 days ?

As Les Malone pointed out the typical time interval before antibody test is reliable and shows that you have had the disease is 28 days. Hence antibody tests might not be a game changer.

I think there's enough misunderstanding on these issues that the Chinese study just got it wrong. They didn't wait the required 28 days to carry out reliable antibody tests - resulting in false negatives.

In addition, they tried to test multiple scenarios in one study and presented the results poorly. Then you get people reading their study trying to draw invalid conclusions based on the very small size and non-typical sample.

Where in the study did they say they didn't test to 28 days?

 

[swingdog]

I‘m a tradesman, I had two refurbs to do for a restaurateur, once the shit hit the fan, the jobs got put on hold.
I’ve painted stuff around the house, I’ve fixed stuff, I’ve smashed shit so I could fix it.
Ok, I’m going to build the ******* half pipe I promised the kids.......see ya’s in a few days!

Good luck.

 

[swingdog]

Is the two cans of food, per customer rule, at supermarkets True or fake news? Thanks

Almost as scary at the bottle shop rumors. On the plus side Dan Murphy does delivery

Sounds fake - my wife's just back with 6 cans of beans. Lucky we've got an extra toilet.

 

[Snake_Baker]

As Les Malone pointed out the typical time interval before antibody test is reliable and shows that you have had the disease is 28 days. Hence antibody tests might not be a game changer.

 

[Seeds]

Waging war stimulates economies. Plenty of people get rich from wars.

War stimulates production but it doesnt stimulate wealth. Wars build unproductive goods and assets that are virtually useless in peace time. Wars also lead to destruction of Pre-existing capital (Along with labour). Virtually everyone loses economically from war.

the one benefit of war is we usually see higher r&d. although war isnt needed for it. We just dont do it for some reason in peace time because of poor leadership.

 

[Rotayjay]

I'm enjoying it - work from home. ALL the crap meetings and interactions at work gone. Much more productive when I want to be. If I want to go for a bike ride in the middle of the day I can. Lovely weather. Can drink at the work place.

Nah. I actually enjoy meetings and talking s*** at work (yes I'm that guy)

 

[Snake_Baker]

Just looking at Victoria because they are the only ones giving regular updates of recoveries. It appears that the lag between diagnosis and outcomes (recoveries + deaths) is about 9 days.
View attachment 851698

Based on the 9 days we need to have daily increases below View attachment 851699-1 = 8% to make any dent in the number of people who are infected.
We have reached this benchmark 3 of the last 4 days.

View attachment 851700

Excellent numbers!

Going by your data the Vic results are very good.

Based upon a 9 day lag in response and the R0 of 2.5 these current numbers should be pushing much higher.

Yesterdays number:

Take this back to the 24/2 (~9 days) and we had 64 reported cases, and by applying the R0 to that figure, we should have had 160 cases yesterday, when in fact the number was in the negative.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Is the two cans of food, per customer rule, at supermarkets True or fake news? Thanks

Almost as scary at the bottle shop rumors. On the plus side Dan Murphy does delivery

Two of each item. Picked up 3 cans of fruit, had to leave one at the checkout. It wasn’t the operator, the cash register wouldn’t accept it. But you can buy another two when you next go back.

 

[Ron The Bear]

They are a basket case.Officially have less cases then Australia and ten times the number of fatalitys.I half expect a cruise ship full of Swedes to pull up next to the Germans in Fremantle any day now.

Short (4 minutes) interview with one of the eggheads supporting Swedish policy.

https://www.pri.org/file/2020-04-02/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-faces-some-backlash

The arrogant bastard sounds as though he's enjoying Sweden's little experiment that places liberal values above lives.

14th in the world for deaths is nothing to be proud of, mate!

 

[Ron The Bear]

Thank you, Wuhan.

That joint is going to need a name change.