Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

[Les Malone]

Where in the study did they say they didn't test to 28 days?

To get a reliable result for antibodies the DCMO said you should wait 28 days at least after you have been infected to get a reliable result, i stumbled on that info through a tweet that i linked to one of your posts, as far as i can ascertain the Chinese study you linked conducted their studies inside the 28 day period or at least that's how their charts/graphs and time line looked for people who were sick and also people close to them (relatives etc) who were not.

So .... to understand the amount of people that may have contracted the infection but not showed symptoms this study is not that great, you were of the opinion this study concluded that there were less people infected than what was previously thought to be, thereby increasing the overall mortality rate.

 

[Leeda]

Becoming clear its the 'better off' suburbs who don't think it applies to them. yet they'd be the ones taking a bigger risk?

Not sure Manly supermarkets will be safe in few days time, as everyne centralises. of course some of the campaigners will be doing supermarket runs to 'safer' suburbs

um the poor against the rich... everyone panics.. but I will say that some drop kicks will breach the walls and try to suck the life out of the
emergency services...

Manly is not so manly anymore..

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Excellent numbers!

Going by your data the Vic results are very good.

Based upon a 9 day lag in response and the R0 of 2.5 these current numbers should be pushing much higher.

Yesterdays number:

Take this back to the 24/2 (~9 days) and we had 64 reported cases, and by applying the R0 to that figure, we should have had 160 cases yesterday, when in fact the number was in the negative.

With the Vic Premier flagging stage 4 I have to wonder if going that path is an over reaction.

 

[mcnulty]

It hasn’t been explicitly said, but it seems were following the South Korean approach- identity clusters, hunt down and aggressively test contacts. Here there was a cluster around baggage handlers, and since then they’ve found positives in all the immediate family of one- the wife who works at a pharmacy, and the two kids who go to a large public school, but also work at a McDonald’s and supermarket respectively.

Its easy to see how this one bloke could be responsible for dozens, which become hundreds (and more) of infections, but with the testing resources and with only a few hundred cases on the books it could also be stamped out.

Hopefully were as successful as SK, because it could easily get to the point where you’re herding cats, which is where the US are right now.

But even if it looks good now, the next phase will be tricky.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Not only that, but as i linked earlier from the DCMO (UK) stated that you need to test people 28 days after infection at the least to get a real gauge on antibodies, that will give a you better idea on what % spread is through the general population and not just the sick.

The Chinese study appears to have only tested people inside that 28 day period and quite substantially at that, so therefore does it accurately represent the rate of infection across the general populace ?.

Makes you wonder if this is actually correct info from the DCMO, or whether the Chinese study was even dinkum or just another con job.

Now that would be a conspiracy!.

Testing too early would only underestimate the level of immunity so would lead authorities to err on side of maintaining lockdown; so I don’t see that to be a huge issue for antibody test.

 

[Snake_Baker]

With the Vic Premier flagging stage 4 I have to wonder if going that path is an over reaction.

If it puts a final nail in the coffin of the thing then I would think it's a good idea.

 

[Present Not Past]

Nah. I actually enjoy meetings and talking s*** at work (yes I'm that guy)

 

[parsons nose]

If it puts a final nail in the coffin of the thing then I would think it's a good idea.

Unless Victoria intends to isolate itself from the outside world that final nail still looks a long way off unfortunately.

 

[Taylor]

Unless Victoria intends to isolate itself from the outside world that final nail still looks a long way off unfortunately.

I think he let slip the national plan

But I don't think WA will go into full lockdown when the rest of the country does.

 

[Doss]

We are a long, long, long way from being even in sight of being out of the woods yet.

But, our numbers are cautiously encouraging at the moment. 6.6% growth on 30/3, 7.3% on 31/1, 6.6% on 1/4, 5.5% on 2/4 and at this point, 4.3% today with all states having reported a number. That is an encouraging curve if nothing else.

 

[its free real estate]

To get a reliable result for antibodies the DCMO said you should wait 28 days at least after you have been infected to get a reliable result, i stumbled on that info through a tweet that i linked to one of your posts, as far as i can ascertain the Chinese study you linked conducted their studies inside the 28 day period or at least that's how their charts/graphs and time line looked for people who were sick and also people close to them (relatives etc) who were not.

So .... to understand the amount of people that may have contracted the infection but not showed symptoms this study is not that great, you were of the opinion this study concluded that there were less people infected than what was previously thought to be, thereby increasing the overall mortality rate.

The DCMO said the typical time for antibodies to be present for most infections was 28 days. Not that you must wait 28 days before you test. From the paper:

​

Studies on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) showed that antibodies were detectable in 80%-100% patients at 2 weeks after illness onset [1, 2, 3, 4]​

From the figures provided they tested up to at least 25 days, and for these they had the presence of antibodies up to 100% of what they expected.

Why would this virus:

1. differ in the presence of antibodies from other bat origin coronaviruses which cause severe respiratory illness; and
2. require a 28 day interval before antibodies show up?

 

[Number37]

View attachment 851783

I read somewhere today that they're not reliable enough to be used to clear people.

 

[Seeds]

Nah. I actually enjoy meetings and talking s*** at work (yes I'm that guy)

the unproductive guy who gets nothing done himself and slows everyone else up by organising pointless meetings.


these guys are going to be found out if corona lasts 6 months.

 

[Number37]

the unproductive guy who gets nothing done himself and slows everyone else up by organising pointless meetings.


these guys are going to be found out if corona lasts 6 months.

They're usually the boss.

 

[FRUMPY]

Nah. I actually enjoy meetings and talking s*** at work (yes I'm that guy)

You're on my shitlist.....

Sent from my CPH1879 using Tapatalk

 

[FRUMPY]

They're usually the boss.

Spot on, complains about people being unproductive, continues to call unproductive meetings

Sent from my CPH1879 using Tapatalk

 

[Seeds]

They're usually the boss.

True. but bosses have bosses who have bosses. Going to be a significant boss cull.

 

[Number37]

2 April: CSIRO begins first stage of testing COVID-19 vaccines

CSIRO commenced pre-clinical trials for two COVID-19 vaccine candidates at our high-containment facility, the Australian Animal Health Laboratory in Geelong in late March.

https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Health/Infectious-dieases-coronavirus/Latest-updates


Understanding the virus

Our first challenge is understanding this new virus. Since SARS, we have new techniques to understand what is going on inside the virus and at a molecular level, and also more technology to understand what is going on, on the surface of the virus. However, it’s important to find out how it behaves in biological systems.

We’ve been very fortunate in being given a sample of virus from the Peter Doherty Institute. We have cultivated the virus, growing it to levels that allow us to understand its genomic sequence and its characteristics. This has allowed us to start testing it in the biological models we’ve previously used for the SARS virus and we then hope to test vaccines and therapeutics.

- Dr Rob Grenfell


https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Covid19-expert-commentary

 

[Deliverance]

With the Vic Premier flagging stage 4 I have to wonder if going that path is an over reaction.

I'm starting to think the politicians are enjoying the drama

 

[yebiga]

I'm starting to think the politicians are enjoying the drama

Thinking is verboten

 

[FRUMPY]

I'm starting to think the politicians are enjoying the drama

A lot of people are I reckon

Sent from my CPH1879 using Tapatalk

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Apparently this was Manly Beach today

View attachment 851691

(Source: news.com)

It's ok, the young people aren't there to infect them.

 

[yebiga]

How long before a few friends go out to the beach, the park, wherever? Officials ask them to separate or endeavour to fine them. The group tell them to buzz off.
What happens?

The group refuse to give their names and ignore the officials.

What is the protocol? Are they arrested? If so are they bodily handled and then all parties are further exposed to an even higher risk?

 

[mcnulty]

Nah, just photograph them. Put them on the news and social media.

“It’s not that hard, dickheads”, being the caption.

If people think they’ve been unjustly dealt with they’ll rally to their cause.

But pretty much everyone will just think they’re dickheads.

 

[Snake_Baker]

2 April: CSIRO begins first stage of testing COVID-19 vaccines

CSIRO commenced pre-clinical trials for two COVID-19 vaccine candidates at our high-containment facility, the Australian Animal Health Laboratory in Geelong in late March.

https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Health/Infectious-dieases-coronavirus/Latest-updates


Understanding the virus

Our first challenge is understanding this new virus. Since SARS, we have new techniques to understand what is going on inside the virus and at a molecular level, and also more technology to understand what is going on, on the surface of the virus. However, it’s important to find out how it behaves in biological systems.

We’ve been very fortunate in being given a sample of virus from the Peter Doherty Institute. We have cultivated the virus, growing it to levels that allow us to understand its genomic sequence and its characteristics. This has allowed us to start testing it in the biological models we’ve previously used for the SARS virus and we then hope to test vaccines and therapeutics.

- Dr Rob Grenfell


https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Covid19-expert-commentary

Throw enough money to rope in the human brain power and the research equipment and this thing will be fixed in no time.

Unfortunately, we live in a country that skimps on science terribly, and it is to our ongoing detriment.