Covid-19 Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 4 - Ivermectin doesn't work either.

[Chief]

Continued in Part 5:

Covid-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 5 - Get vaccinated.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/in-focus/covid-19-vaccination-case-surveillance-051121.pdf In the peak fortnight of the outbreak to date (25 August to 7 September), the COVID-19 case rate among 2-dose vaccinated people was 49.5 per 100,000 while in unvaccinated...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yep A new year and Dan is still setting the gold standard for incompetence and deflection. Hopefully ALP MPs like Jill H are using the lockdown to work the numbers.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Did you even listen to the press conference.
Its not a political thing .

 

[SaintsSeptember]

the 11 staff working alongside the infected worker for eight hours at Brunetti’s have tested negative, undermining the superdouper contagious narrative.

maybe they wore masks and socially distanced.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

It's good, we go out often to make up for lost time and can never tell when we'll be back in lockdown.

I found going to a 40th the weirdest (Jan this year) handy been out to something like that for over 12 months. Hadn't got dressed up for so long, lucky it still all fitted. (I don't get overly dressed up for going out for dinner, usually pretty casual)

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My Niece had an 18th Tonight. She told me she cried when she heard the news. Her mum was in the process of ringing the hall and asking what would happen if it was cancelled and managed to switch it to last night. So it finished early but she got her 18th.

 

[Roby]

Would you have preferred Dan just said drop what you're doing, close everything and go home immediately at 1pm?

He does have a point.

And yes it's exactly what should be happening otherwise it's not really based 100% on epidemiology.

 

[darrenmorgan]

He does have a point.

And yes it's exactly what should be happening otherwise it's not really based 100% on epidemiology.

You’re neglecting the fact that not everyone is watching the news 24/7 and you can’t shut down an active society within a couple of hours. These sort of arguments are just puerile. Have you ever worked in any management environment? If so, you’ll know that you make decisions on any number of factors, and take them all into consideration. There is no perfect way to deal with this shit, it’s always going to be a blunt instrument response in many ways when trying to manage a city of 5+ million. It’s all about mitigation.

 

[Roby]

You’re neglecting the fact that not everyone is watching the news 24/7 and you can’t shut down an active society within a couple of hours. These sort of arguments are just puerile. Have you ever worked in any management environment? If so, you’ll know that you make decisions on any number of factors, and take them all into consideration. There is no perfect way to deal with this sh*t, it’s always going to be a blunt instrument response in many ways when trying to manage a city of 5+ million. It’s all about mitigation.

Two points you made there.

One of them was "there is no perfect way to deal with it". And immediate closure has its own problems. But are those problems worse than the problems of leaving it open till midnight?

If the virus is in the community and consequently many congregate to supermarkets, parties, etc that day... It would mean an acceleration of spread till midnight and beyond.

The behaviour of people prior to midnight would've been unusual given the short timeline.

The other point is mitigation.

Yes we are looking at mitigation. What is the best course of mitigation? Well in the case the sooner the better.

Of course you can argue that you can't just at a drop of a hat stop the city but of course you can. It's not like it's a proper hard lockdown. You can still go shopping. So what's the big deal?

Was it really important to invite twenty of your friends last night? Going to a fully booked restaurant necessary? Did you really need to pack into supermarkets like sardines? There are your answers.

 

[Mateyman]

the 11 staff working alongside the infected worker for eight hours at Brunetti’s have tested negative, undermining the superdouper contagious narrative.

Are we just going to ignore the fact it spread quite quickly to about 20 people within hotel quarantine because one time at Brunetti's it didn't spread? With the original COVID strain something like 80%+ of people who got it infected nobody or one person. So if this strain is somewhat more infectious, maybe that number is more like 60% for this strain, for example. It's because some people are truly prolific spreaders that makes it overall quite contagious. So while in many individual instances it won't spread very much, it's a bit of a ticking time bomb until you hit someone who for whatever reason spreads it to lots of people. So a few random individual cases not spreading it very much doesn't really prove anything.

 

[Mateyman]

Crankyhawk Snake_Baker Did you have a look at this study by Imperial College? Please correct me if I missed something.

As far as I can tell they estimated that the UK B117 variant increased R0 - ie the average number of people an infected person infects — by between 0.4 and 0.7.

R0 is always an estimate with a range. For example, this article in Lancet cites R0 for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be 2·5 with a range of 1·8–3·6. This article in the British Medical Journal gives an an estimated R0 of around 2.63, with a range of between 0.4 and 4.6.

So the increased R0 that Imperial found for UK B117 variant is within the estimated ranges for the non-variant.

However, if we accept the figures of an increased R0 between 0.4 and 0.7 for B117, what are the implications?

This Public Health England Technical Briefing states that the estimated secondary attack rate is between 11% to 15% of named contacts for the variant strain compared to 10% for the non-variant. This does not support hyperbolic statements by our leaders such as 'this hyper-infectious variant is moving at hyper-speed'. The virus is not jumping out of locked hotel rooms and chasing you down the corridor.

To me it looks like the science is not conclusive on the UK variant being significantly more infectious - maybe a little. I think politicians are using it as boogeyman to cover up their failures.

I think it's worth noting though that a relatively small increase in R0 can have quite a big consequence on lockdown procedures. The whole idea of lockdown relies on getting the R0 a reasonable amount below 1. If we assume lockdown reduces the spread of the virus by about two-thirds (for example - probably about right given past experience), then for the original lockdown brings Reff from 2.5 to about 0.83 - it will work pretty quickly to reduce the spread.

If instead we assume for the UK variant the R0 is 3 (which is relatively conservative/in the lower-to-middle end of the estimate range), then the Reff will be reduced to 1 - so the lockdown won't really work to stop the spread until a reasonable proportion of the population have the virus. This is what the UK claim to have been seeing through their first national lockdown, with cases of the UK variant increasing in absolute terms despite the lockdown measures which led to a fall in cases. By the time of the second lockdown in late January, I expect a reasonable proportion of their population had already been exposed, lowering the Reff of the UK variant as this has allowed the case numbers to drop accordingly.

So if this is the case, it's worth being very careful with the UK variant, as if it gets out of hand and overwhelms our contact tracing, even though it may only be a little more infectious than the original, we could have some serious issues if a lockdown would not curb the spread.

 

[Snake_Baker]

To me it looks like the science is not conclusive on the UK variant being significantly more infectious - maybe a little. I think politicians are using it as boogeyman to cover up their failures.

Your assumptions are correct.

 

[parsons nose]

maybe they wore masks and socially distanced.

Practices that are not specific to Brunetti’s cafe.

 

[parsons nose]

Are we just going to ignore the fact it spread quite quickly to about 20 people within hotel quarantine because one time at Brunetti's it didn't spread? With the original COVID strain something like 80%+ of people who got it infected nobody or one person. So if this strain is somewhat more infectious, maybe that number is more like 60% for this strain, for example. It's because some people are truly prolific spreaders that makes it overall quite contagious. So while in many individual instances it won't spread very much, it's a bit of a ticking time bomb until you hit someone who for whatever reason spreads it to lots of people. So a few random individual cases not spreading it very much doesn't really prove anything.

So the spread is not a fait acclompi as our beloved leader would have us believe.

 

[mcnulty]

You don’t know who a superspreader might be until after the fact.

 

[Brad Goodman]

He does have a point.

And yes it's exactly what should be happening otherwise it's not really based 100% on epidemiology.

Wouldn’t an immediate lockdown mean you have to stay within 5km of wherever you are when it’s announced?

 

[parsons nose]

You don’t know who a superspreader might be until after the fact.

Wait a minute; were we not told ’we have in place a quarantine and contract tracing system that is gold standard’. Glad you’re buying into the rhetoric. And the concept of super spreader is not a new one.

 

[parsons nose]

You’re neglecting the fact that not everyone is watching the news 24/7 and you can’t shut down an active society within a couple of hours. These sort of arguments are just puerile. Have you ever worked in any management environment? If so, you’ll know that you make decisions on any number of factors, and take them all into consideration. There is no perfect way to deal with this sh*t, it’s always going to be a blunt instrument response in many ways when trying to manage a city of 5+ million. It’s all about mitigation.

I don’t accept the blunt instrument argument; you only have to look at the more nuanced approach of N.S.W to realize there is a valid alternative. Blunt instrument approaches are made at the expense of those being governed and demonstrates a lack of imagination. An extension of the blunt instrument approach is what the US have adopted in their response to law and order.

 

[twotooto]

With each new strain getting progressively more powerful and this new UK strain(aka The Political Patsy Strain) having acquired lightspeed capabilities, what will we call the next strain?

I propose ~ "The Thanos Strain"

 

[Snake_Baker]

With each new strain getting progressively more powerful and this new UK strain(aka The Political Patsy Strain) having acquired lightspeed capabilities, what will we call the next strain?

I propose ~ "The Thanos Strain"

The social programmers will be putting in overtime studying the reactions of the bovine class.

They don't get to analyse something like this every day.

 

[FRUMPY]

You’re neglecting the fact that not everyone is watching the news 24/7 and you can’t shut down an active society within a couple of hours. These sort of arguments are just puerile. Have you ever worked in any management environment? If so, you’ll know that you make decisions on any number of factors, and take them all into consideration. There is no perfect way to deal with this sh*t, it’s always going to be a blunt instrument response in many ways when trying to manage a city of 5+ million. It’s all about mitigation.

So not cancelling the tennis crowd on friday is ok 'because they had plans' yet weddings the next day have to be cancelled.....

Yeah makes complete sense. As I've said, lucky the virus knows not to attack when the government says not to.

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[twotooto]

The social programmers will be putting in overtime studying the reactions of the bovine class.

They don't get to analyse something like this every day.

lol...well I know I am enthralled(amongst some other not so benign descriptors) watching all of this unfold. A truly fascinating case study for those who like to delve in to the world of human behaviour and mass consciousness. The global implications of this particular case make it very unique - I am sure it will be studied for centuries to come...The Great Balls Up.

 

[Snake_Baker]

lol...well I know I am enthralled(amongst some other not so benign descriptors) watching all of this unfold. A truly fascinating case study for those who like to delve in to the world of human behaviour and mass consciousness. The global implications of this particular case make it very unique - I am sure it will be studied for centuries...The Great Balls Up.

When I see some of the quality behind the reasoning, then I have to come to the uncomfortable conclusion that it's relatively easy to herd people around for all sorts of ridiculous things.

So many people just regurgitate the party/bureaucratic/media lines without investigating for themselves, then they want to tear down folks who actually do that and point out the bullshit to them.

It's a tired cliche, but you can see how the Nazi's happened.

 

[Run n Spread]

When I see some of the quality behind the reasoning, then I have to come to the uncomfortable conclusion that it's relatively easy to herd people around for all sorts of ridiculous things.

So many people just regurgitate the party/bureaucratic/media lines without investigating for themselves, then they want to tear down folks who actually do that and point out the bullshit to them.

It's a tired cliche, but you can see how the Nazi's happened.

Add to that people are just desperate from praise from authority rather than investigating for themselves and finding purpose. We all need validation as we are human but f me. Some people would do a rain dance naked in the street if they believed it was a cure.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Add to that people are just desperate from praise from authority rather than investigating for themselves and finding purpose. We all need validation as we are human but f me. Some people would do a rain dance naked in the street if they believed it was a cure.

We can thank the bullying aspect of cancel culture for that.

Independent thought and career prospects have never been a shakier pairing than they are right now.

 

[mcnulty]

Wait a minute; were we not told ’we have in place a quarantine and contract tracing system that is gold standard’. Glad you’re buying into the rhetoric. And the concept of super spreader is not a new one.

I haven’t bought into any rhetoric. If that cafe worker at the airport had been a superspreader and hadn’t followed through with safe practices then it might have spread to several cities by now.

I’ve been openly critical of our quarantine system, particularly the lack of federal intervention but that’s moot once the virus is in the community. Big decisions have to be made on rapidly evolving situations and they have to be made very quickly. Around Australia local governments are tending to err on the side of caution. I’m fine with that.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Seems like the worst is behind us globally. If the vaccine works on top of natural decline, we're on easy street.

View attachment 1056987

Natural decline??? It’s the lockdowns

 

[Deliverance]

Natural decline??? It’s the lockdowns

Most places have similar or lighter for restrictions than during last year when cases were peaking.

COVID-19 Government Response Tracker

Governments are taking a wide range of measures in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. The response tracker tool aims to track and compare policy responses around the world, rigorously and consistently – and make this data freely available.

www.bsg.ox.ac.uk