Covid-19 Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 4 - Ivermectin doesn't work either.

[Chief]

Continued in Part 5:

Covid-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 5 - Get vaccinated.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/in-focus/covid-19-vaccination-case-surveillance-051121.pdf In the peak fortnight of the outbreak to date (25 August to 7 September), the COVID-19 case rate among 2-dose vaccinated people was 49.5 per 100,000 while in unvaccinated...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Run n Spread]

I like the way the logical narrative followed a strong line in this one.

Congratulations on your response. Still waiting for your point

 

[Chief]

However, if we accept the figures of an increased R0 between 0.4 and 0.7 for B117, what are the implications?

Think compounding interest.

 

[swingdog]

Congratulations on your response. Still waiting for your point

It'll arrive at about the same time as your post gets there.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Do you remember that time you tried to cancel Annaliese Van Diemen for a tweet about Captain Cook??

Cancelled?

She should have been sacked for being an incompetent ****wit.

ASide from that she can do all the tweeting she likes.

 

[Snake_Baker]

It's the attack on independent thought and this whole mob comply mentality. Yeah have a free society just as long as we agree.
The people right at the pointy end of bureaucracy and government take otherwise noble causes (aboriginal rights and recognition, gay rights, need to fight a virus etc) and use it as a Trojan horse to push their warped agendas and suspend accountability. And all their followers jump on the band wagon like it's a footy game.
It's a kind of mad hysteria that has taken hold. This covid stuff just proves it.

It's the major symptom of the existential crisis of the overindulged.

If people are denied a healthy level of adversity, they manufacture it.

 

[Mateyman]

USA number of tests exceeds their total population, for a hit rate of less than 10%. And it's in decline everywhere. Final number will be miles less than 70%, and that's in the country that has apparently handled it worse than anybody.

Yes and they had plenty of measures in place on a regional level to manage the spread so that is not really at all like a "no intervention" scenario.

 

[The Dice Man]

Cases dropping, but fear the new, multiple, 3-eyed variants that your dog may bring home.

WHO sees 17% drop in cases, but experts say Covid-19 variants pose new threats

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced Thursday a 17 percent drop in new Covid-19 cases worldwide, a trend recorded in all six regions it monitors. But this hopeful statistic may mask incomplete…

www.france24.com

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Meanwhile, in Africa, Ebola has broken out again.

 

[Deliverance]

Meanwhile, in Africa, Ebola has broken out again.

We don't need to know about that in this country, it doesn't effect old white people.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

We don't need to know about that in this country, it doesn't effect old white people.

It also doesn't affect young black people who live in Australia.
What's your point?
You want to change the topic to how the media tend to ignore news from other Countries?
I know when all those people die from mudslides in Peru, the local coverage sucks.

 

[Deliverance]

It also doesn't affect young black people who live in Australia.
What's your point?
You want to change the topic to how the media tend to ignore news from other Countries?
I know when all those people die from mudslides in Peru, the local coverage sucks.

People, media, politicians. Take your pick.

 

[faible]

People, media, politicians. Take your pick.

You mean people only click on news articles that are relevant to their lives, and the media only publish news articles that will generate clicks?

I'm shocked.

 

[FRUMPY]

I think he means covid deaths mean more than any other death - thats been well and truely proved the last 12 months, people care about the elderly who die from covid and dont give a shit about them dying any other way

 

[Deliverance]

You mean people only click on news articles that are relevant to their lives, and the media only publish news articles that will generate clicks?

I'm shocked.

Haven't you got better things to do, like encouraging abuse of people with masks exemptions?

 

[twotooto]

You mean people only click on news articles that are relevant to their lives, and the media only publish news articles that will generate clicks?

I'm shocked.

Yes, have you not got better things to do?

Go and walk your vegan dog or something.

 

[faible]

Haven't you got better things to do, like encouraging abuse of people with masks exemptions?

If anything I encouraged people not wearing masks to not abuse minimum wage casual employees.

Yes, have you not got better things to do?

Go and walk your vegan dog or something.

I mean, you're both replying to me with unrelated commentary to my post, so if anything, it suggests neither of you two have anything better to do.

 

[Deliverance]

If anything I encouraged people not wearing masks to not abuse minimum wage casual employees.



I mean, you're both replying to me with unrelated commentary to my post, so if anything, it suggests neither of you two have anything better to do.

Not really. All you've done is expressd a lack of sympathy for victims of such abuse and tried to deflect away from the anguish felt by them.

Definitely nothing better to do, a quiet work day for me. As I've said before, life under lockdown is pretty easy for me.

 

[faible]

victims

anguish

Pull the other one.

People going around bragging about not wearing a mask are not victims, nor are they feeling anguish.

 

[Frank Bunn]

I think it's worth noting though that a relatively small increase in R0 can have quite a big consequence on lockdown procedures. The whole idea of lockdown relies on getting the R0 a reasonable amount below 1. If we assume lockdown reduces the spread of the virus by about two-thirds (for example - probably about right given past experience), then for the original lockdown brings Reff from 2.5 to about 0.83 - it will work pretty quickly to reduce the spread.

If instead we assume for the UK variant the R0 is 3 (which is relatively conservative/in the lower-to-middle end of the estimate range), then the Reff will be reduced to 1 - so the lockdown won't really work to stop the spread until a reasonable proportion of the population have the virus. This is what the UK claim to have been seeing through their first national lockdown, with cases of the UK variant increasing in absolute terms despite the lockdown measures which led to a fall in cases. By the time of the second lockdown in late January, I expect a reasonable proportion of their population had already been exposed, lowering the Reff of the UK variant as this has allowed the case numbers to drop accordingly.

So if this is the case, it's worth being very careful with the UK variant, as if it gets out of hand and overwhelms our contact tracing, even though it may only be a little more infectious than the original, we could have some serious issues if a lockdown would not curb the spread.

Reff is an estimate - it has to be inferred because the community virus testing rate varies, as does the immunity rate, the level of close socialisation, school closures, public festivals, the weather etc. R0 is even more of an estimate because you can't conduct lab trials with a live virus on real people. So you end up with estimates of R0 with wide error bars. You can't just pick the average or median value and assume it's correct.

The estimated increase for R0 of between 0.4 and 0.7 for the B117 variant falls within the error bars of the non-variant strain. It's in the same ball park, whereas we know Smallpox, Chickenpox and Measles are much more infectious. At very low levels of the Sars-Cov-2, proficient hotel quarantine and efficient track and trace in place you will barely notice a difference in infections between the B117 variant and the non-variant strain. With the variant strain 11% to 15% of your contacts might get infected compared to 10% for the non-variant. The B117 variant doesn't justify changes in policy and certainly not language such as 'this hyper-infectious variant is moving at hyper-speed'.

I appreciate you engaging genuinely on the topic. But given the 'UK' B117 variant is being used as rationale for fairly extreme public policy, I think there has been very little discussion in the media on whether the evidence supports the statements made by politicians.

 

[Deliverance]

Pull the other one.

People going around bragging about not wearing a mask are not victims, nor are they feeling anguish.

It was a discussion about people with genuine exemptions you inserted yourself in to and tried to conflate with anti-maskers.

 

[faible]

View attachment 1058244

It was a discussion about people with genuine exemptions you inserted yourself in to and tried to conflate with anti-maskers.

Sure it was.

It just so happens that those you refer to with 'genuine' exemptions are avid anti-maskers. Those I know with actual genuine medical exemptions don't go around berating shop assistants when asked, and certainly don't go around bragging on the internet about it.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

View attachment 1058244

It was a discussion about people with genuine exemptions you inserted yourself in to and tried to conflate with anti-maskers.

Surely Buzz should have his helmet on!!!

 

[MarcMaverick]

Surely Buzz should have his helmet on!!!

Nah. If he's not afraid to go "to infinity and beyond", why should he be afraid of a bug.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Nah. If he's not afraid to go "to infinity and beyond", why should he be afraid of a bug.

Its not about him. He might give space virus to woody, who could spread it to Bo Peep, and then Mr Potato head. Surely Mr Potato head is in a high risk category.

 

[MarcMaverick]

Its not about him. He might give space virus to woody, who could spread it to Bo Peep, and then Mr Potato head. Surely Mr Potato head is in a high risk category.

I hear ya, bad spud salad is lethal.

What about Andy though?