Traded Xavier Duursma [Traded to Essendon for Zerk-Thatcher, #73, 2x F4]

[Sphynx]

The rumours are Essendon is offering North pick 8 (11) + Next years first for pick 3 (4)

Betting against Essendon the year after they make the finals is normally pretty lucrative. Personally I don’t like the idea of trading that pick, it’s very high risk high reward.

I wouldn’t want to be betting on Essendon making the 8 next year. But if Dursma is really good it would be a good trade for both teams.

North need talls and they will find a good one at 11 (or could even trade up) while having Essendons first in next years draft which is said to be very good

I don't think that's enough for us personally.

We give up one of Curtin, Duursma or Watson for maybe Caddy, O'Sullivan or Wilson + a pick that could fall anywhere in an equally compromised top 20.

As I said, GC are getting 10, 17 & a F1 from the Dogs for Pick 4.

Thats the market.

 

[ITK]

That is crap. He was not banned at the point of the trade and played a full year with Port. He was not banned until a full year AFTER you acquired him. He was actually cleared by the AFL at the time of the trade, it wasn't until after he was already at Port that it was appealed to CAS.

Even still he won your B&F and was the AA ruck men within 2 years of playing for PA in 2017.

Pick 17 & 37 for peak Ryder was a joke then, and it is now. Port Adelaide took full advantage of it as they should. But you are being 100% disingenuous saying it was a fair trade.

Langford is irrelevant to the fact te actual trade itself was not fair value.

Essendon were lucky to get anything for him given it breached its contract with him and there was a good argument for unilateral termination. Essendon knew he'd have them over a barrel if it went to court.

I really don't think there's much point trying to benchmark trades today against the tawdry backdrop of the drugs scandal.

 

[jdstorm]

I don't think that's enough for us personally.

We give up one of Curtin, Duursma or Watson for maybe Caddy, O'Sullivan or Wilson.

It’s a risk vs reward scenario.

If Essendon is bad next season (which historically is likely) then it could be pick 8 (11)+ a top 5 pick in a better draft.

Saying it’s not enough is just being either unwilling to take that risk, or being greedy.

 

[SSSSSS]

It would be so typical of Essendon and Dodoro to sell the farm for another skinny flanker type in Duursma.

Essendon may as well just play the ghost of Jobe as an inside mid at this point.

 

[Sphynx]

It’s a risk vs reward scenario.

If Essendon is bad next season (which historically is likely) then it could be pick 8 (11)+ a top 5 pick in a better draft.

Saying it’s not enough is just being either unwilling to take that risk, or being greedy.

It's not when there's an offer on the table for the pick 1 position lower which is 10, 17 & F1 for a side which finished 4 points above you this year.

Pick positions in the top 4 are worth a lot, as we can see with Reid.

How much is the difference between pick 4 and Pick 3?

If Hawthorn asked to move up to Pick 3, we'd be demanding another top 20 pick in return.


So the offer would realistically need to be worth more than 10, 17 & F1 + more.

 

[jdstorm]

It's not when there's an offer on the table for the pick 1 position lower which is 10, 17 & F1 for a side which finished 4 points above you this year.

Pick positions in the top 4 are worth a lot, as we can see with Reid.

How much is the difference between pick 4 and Pick 3?

Pick values depend on the players they represent.

Pick 1 always gets insane offers as teams believe that it represents the most sure thing chance to be a good player.

Adelaide offered you 3FRPs for JHF. Teams go crazy about pick 1 in a way they don’t go about others. West Coast is getting insane offers for pick 1 this year too. So let’s ignore that.

Re Bulldogs and Suns pick.
Dogs are setting the price high because they need to get in front of an Academy player (Croft) who’s expected to go about pick 10.

When you include likely surplus picks aka Academy/FS/Compo ect it’s closer to picks 13/14, pick 25 + F1 for pick 4 + Croft (projected around pick 12)

In this Ess/North scenario it’s North trading pick 4 to pick 11 after bids.
According to draft points system pick 4 is worth about 2000 points and pick 11 around 1300 points.

Realistically teams trading up need to pay overs for the privilege. So 2x pick 10s seems about fair value for pick 4 which is what 8 + F1 represents

 

[Sphynx]

Pick values depend on the players they represent.

Pick 1 always gets insane offers as teams believe that it represents the most sure thing chance to be a good player.

Adelaide offered you 3FRPs for JHF. Teams go crazy about pick 1 in a way they don’t go about others. West Coast is getting insane offers for pick 1 this year too. So let’s ignore that.

Re Bulldogs and Suns pick.
Dogs are setting the price high because they need to get in front of an Academy player (Croft) who’s expected to go about pick 10.

When you include likely surplus picks aka Academy/FS/Compo ect it’s closer to picks 13/14, pick 25 + F1 for pick 4 + Croft (projected around pick 12)

In this Ess/North scenario it’s North trading pick 4 to pick 11 after bids.
According to draft points system pick 4 is worth about 2000 points and pick 11 around 1300 points.

Realistically teams trading up need to pay overs for the privilege. So 2x pick 10s seems about fair value for pick 4 which is what 8 + F1 represents

It's not going to be 2 x pick 10's though and North carries a large amount of risk when we don't need to.

 

[jdstorm]

It's not going to be 2 x pick 10's though and North carries a large amount of risk when we don't need to.

I’d say pick 8 (11) is equivalent value to 1x pick 10

The rest is a gamble. At expected ladder positions it’s reasonable to expect Essendon to finish mid table next season. Which is worth pick 9-11 aka pick 10

However it’s the chance that it’s another top 5 pick (and based on Essendons results this year + harder fixture that’s not unlikely) are what makes the risk interesting.

 

[citizen-erased]

It’s a risk vs reward scenario.

If Essendon is bad next season (which historically is likely) then it could be pick 8 (11)+ a top 5 pick in a better draft.

Saying it’s not enough is just being either unwilling to take that risk, or being greedy.

cycle has been inversed
new coach - miss finals season 1
normally it's new coach, make finals, get smashed

so tip is we stop the clock on no finals wins next year

 

[Sphynx]

I’d say pick 8 (11) is equivalent value to 1x pick 10

The rest is a gamble. At expected ladder positions it’s reasonable to expect Essendon to finish mid table next season. Which is worth pick 9-11 aka pick 10

However it’s the chance that it’s another top 5 pick (and based on Essendons results this year + harder fixture that’s not unlikely) are what makes the risk interesting.

Which won't be pick 10.

There's Ashcroft, Lombard, Welsh, Camporeale as potential top 10 picks next year.

13 of the 58 players in the futures game were aligned with Academy, FS or NGA.

It's equally as compromised.

Pick 3 isn't.

So it will be potentially pick 11 & 14 for pick 4 if Essendon repeat their season, which North carries all the risk on.

 

[jdstorm]

Which won't be pick 10.

There's Ashcroft, Lombard, Welsh, Camporeale as potential top 10 picks next year.

13 of the 58 players in the futures game were aligned with Academy, FS or NGA.

It's equally as compromised.

Pick 3 isn't.

Sure. It’s perfectly reasonable to not want to trade it.

however if Essendon finish last it’s obviously worth a lot more so that’s an opportunity for increased value.

I think it just depends on what north think their biggest list needs are. Like I said I can see both how it’s reasonable but also not needed or desirable

 

[davesnothere]

Pick values depend on the players they represent.

Pick 1 always gets insane offers as teams believe that it represents the most sure thing chance to be a good player.

Adelaide offered you 3FRPs for JHF. Teams go crazy about pick 1 in a way they don’t go about others. West Coast is getting insane offers for pick 1 this year too. So let’s ignore that.

Re Bulldogs and Suns pick.
Dogs are setting the price high because they need to get in front of an Academy player (Croft) who’s expected to go about pick 10.

When you include likely surplus picks aka Academy/FS/Compo ect it’s closer to picks 13/14, pick 25 + F1 for pick 4 + Croft (projected around pick 12)

In this Ess/North scenario it’s North trading pick 4 to pick 11 after bids.
According to draft points system pick 4 is worth about 2000 points and pick 11 around 1300 points.

Realistically teams trading up need to pay overs for the privilege. So 2x pick 10s seems about fair value for pick 4 which is what 8 + F1 represents

Croft is not going 10.

He played one good game in the championships against SA.

About 20ish

 

[Lore]

It would be so typical of Essendon and Dodoro to sell the farm for another skinny flanker type in Duursma.

Essendon may as well just play the ghost of Jobe as an inside mid at this point.

The skinny flanker thing is a draft meme. We don't trade for them, let alone selling an entire farm.

 

[SSSSSS]

The skinny flanker thing is a draft meme. We don't trade for them, let alone selling an entire farm.

Thought Dodoro is trying to trade up for Zane.

 

[Lore]

Thought Dodoro is trying to trade up for Zane.

What farm are we selling?

 

[Foucault1989]

Is it just me or is Xavier Duursma

28

Xavier Duursma

Age

24

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

8.5

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.1

4star

CL

1.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

0.5

3star

D

16.8

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

8.4

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

1.6

4star

a terribly overrated footballer?

 

[King_Tredrea]

Is it just me or is Xavier Duursma a terribly overrated footballer?

Who rates him?

 

[jdstorm]

What farm are we selling?

Rumour is pick 8 + F1

So a midsize one. Probably sells olive oil rather then wine

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Rumour is pick 8 + F1

So a midsize one. Probably sells olive oil rather then wine

I’d want one of their future end of first assistance package picks back along with pick 3 in that scenario.

 

[Yoda_]

It would be so typical of Essendon and Dodoro to sell the farm for another skinny flanker type in Duursma.

Essendon may as well just play the ghost of Jobe as an inside mid at this point.

that hasn't been a joke in years mate

 

[LB2Snake]

I’d want one of their future end of first assistance package picks back along with pick 3 in that scenario.

Yeah pretty confident that wont happen. I don’t think the proposed deal is enough TBH. But who knows.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Yeah pretty confident that wont happen. I don’t think the proposed deal is enough TBH. But who knows.

That future pick has to go anyway so it’s kind of redundant for North. I see their list and they need as many high end youngsters in as they can so 2 x top 10 picks makes sense to me. We need a real top end talent hence our interest in pick 2 or 3. I think it’s a win-win for both clubs.

 

[Howe Amazing]

Surely North take Duursma and Watson in draft

 

[LB2Snake]

That future pick has to go anyway so it’s kind of redundant for North. I see their list and they need as many high end youngsters in as they can so 2 x top 10 picks makes sense to me. We need a real top end talent hence our interest in pick 2 or 3. I think it’s a win-win for both clubs.

Yeah that’s cool. But your F1 could end up in the teens, possibly, so 3 for 8 and 14, let’s say, particularly in this year‘s draft where there’s a top tier to about pick 5, I just don’t think it gets up anyway, let alone us giving something back to you. If you were asking another club to move back 1 spot, then you’d def have a case, not 5 spots.
IMO we need a lot more than high end youngsters, we need some mature bodies and that’s where I’m tipping those F1‘s will go.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Yeah that’s cool. But your F1 could end up in the teens, possibly, so 3 for 8 and 14, let’s say, particularly in this year‘s draft where there’s a top tier to about pick 5, I just don’t think it gets up anyway, let alone us giving something back to you. If you were asking another club to move back 1 spot, then you’d def have a case, not 5 spots.
IMO we need a lot more than high end youngsters, we need some mature bodies and that’s where I’m tipping those F1‘s will go.

I’m flattered that you see us on the brink of the top 4 and winning a final, and you could be right. For me it’ll be another top 10 pick which I see as more value to you than us. Each to their own though of course.