Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2013 - A Phantom Draft

[LemmingMaster]

Harvey has glandular fever and has been sick for a while from all accounts. Is was amazing he he got through the testing. He looks like he lost heaps of weight and heard he was doing pb times before he was unwell

Cracking 11 in the beep test is a PB? Maybe hitting 3.2 seconds for the 20m?

 

[Slick]

Thoughts on who the Hawks may target now they have given up their first pick Chris? My feelings are that we will target a midfielder with some pace. Who would be available and the best fit around Pick 20-23 depending on what it ends up being?

 

[Snoop Dog]

Mate good list and like the order being thrown around. I think between Knighta, yourself and myself we will have some differences from about pick #2.

Like you I rate Dunstan & Crouch pretty high but I struggle how you can have Dunstan so high when he has athletic limitations and yet you can have Reynolds so low. As said I agree Dunstan and Crouch will be 10-20 but I have Reynolds in the 15-25 band. He is just a natural footballer.

Well done on Sam Bennett I have been watching him as well and am pretty happy with him. Think there are a couple of others who will get a run but will let you know who they are when I release my list.

Couple of questions. I have Mal Karpany going albeit probably around pick 45 - 65. I just think he shows great game sense and is a wonderful ball user who kicks to advantage etc. I would probably have higher than an Alex Saunders who I think will be a rookie at best. Also interested in view on Patrick Wilson and Aseri Rawikisi.

 

[Chris25]

I like the Campbell Coombe pick in the main draft.

Very underrated player. He'd be one of the best pure contested ball and clearance winners in the entire draft. Has been named in the bests in just about every game he has played this year - U18 Championships, SANFL U18s and SANFL Reserves. It's players like him and to a lesser extent Michael Gibbons who would be available later, which would lean me towards overlooking a similar player early in the draft (say a Crouch, Dunstan or Tsitas for example) in favour of a lesser performing but potentially better player (such as a Sicily, Bontempelli, Marsh or Acres).

Yes, those early round inside midfielders have more versatility to their game but if it was a contested ball winner I wanted, then I would wait until the later rounds. The value late looks to be in small forwards and ball winners. Whereas those good sized, skillful, marking prospects dry up after the second round.

Thoughts on who the Hawks may target now they have given up their first pick Chris? My feelings are that we will target a midfielder with some pace. Who would be available and the best fit around Pick 20-23 depending on what it ends up being?

Well someone will slide. Whether that be a Dumont, Dunstan, Jones or someone else. So they could go that way and look to draft a Sewell replacement. Otherwise, I'd consider Sicily as a medium midfielder/forward with genuine pace. The value could end up being with a tall - Giles, McStay for example. The draft really opens up after pick 20.

 

[Chris25]

Mate good list and like the order being thrown around. I think between Knighta, yourself and myself we will have some differences from about pick #2.

Like you I rate Dunstan & Crouch pretty high but I struggle how you can have Dunstan so high when he has athletic limitations and yet you can have Reynolds so low. As said I agree Dunstan and Crouch will be 10-20 but I have Reynolds in the 15-25 band. He is just a natural footballer.

Well done on Sam Bennett I have been watching him as well and am pretty happy with him. Think there are a couple of others who will get a run but will let you know who they are when I release my list.

Couple of questions. I have Mal Karpany going albeit probably around pick 45 - 65. I just think he shows great game sense and is a wonderful ball user who kicks to advantage etc. I would probably have higher than an Alex Saunders who I think will be a rookie at best. Also interested in view on Patrick Wilson and Aseri Rawikisi.

OK, a few points...

I'll start with Luke Reynolds. I think he has had a quite disappointing season. Only played two senior matches in the SANFL and was pretty quiet, and never really dominated in the Reserves either. His Championships form was OK and he played his role, but had a low possession count and I wasn't overly impressed with his disposal - which is usually a strength. And more so, I'm not sure what role he plays at the next level. He is reminding me too much of Luke Tapscott. Doesn't have the initial burst of speed or height needed up forward, and doesn't have the game for the midfield. I'm still a fan of turning him into a Josh Hunt/Shannon Hurn style defender personally, but that will take some time.

And while Dunstan does have similar athletic limitations, I don't feel as though it will impact his game as much - being an inside midfielder, and one who has performed well throughout the season at all levels.

Based on their performances this year and scope for improvement, I would be taking George Hewett ahead of Luke Reynolds. They are both a similar sized, but Hewett offers more in the midfield. And I don't feel as though Reynolds questionable ability to translate his goal kicking to the next level is worth an early selection.

Malcolm Karpany, I have in a similar range to you - basically, anywhere from pick 40 onwards. So about the same range as I have on Jay Kennedy Harris, who I think is slightly overrated (but that's not the point here). Karpany was one player who just missed out. He has shown some really good things this year, but I have Fantasia and McCartney ahead of him. You're right about Alex Saunders likely being a rookie, but there is just something there for me.

Finally, I would have both Aseri Raikiwasa and Patrick Wilson as outside rookie chances. Last year, I said Wilson would need to crack the senior team before he got his chance - he has yet to do that, but spent the year in the Reserves and showed his ball magnet ways can translate to the next level up from U18s. So that's promising, but I feel like he needs to take that next step next season first. As for Raikiwasa, I've called for him to be drafted for the last two years. If he were an extra inch or two taller, he'd be on a list already. But he is playing good football at league level in the SANFL. Still think Port Adelaide should have taken him over Hoskin last year. But Alex Georgiou from Norwood is the one, slightly smaller at 188cm and older at 23 but is the best shutdown defender in the SANFL and probably outside of the AFL.

Looking forward to seeing your list, especially if it means I have a friend in regards to Sam Bennett.

 

[Chris25]

Cheeky question on next year, but thoughts on Jack Hayes ? Putting up some incredible numbers right now.

Well speaking of next year, I updated the first page with a quick look at a possible first round of the 2014 draft. Being so far out, it will look hugely different but it's worth noting the number of talls compared to this year. And as I said in the post, knowing what the draft looks like next year may help explain some of the picks this year.

And Jack Hayes is one of those talls, standing in the low 190cm's at the moment. Will be interesting to see what he grows to. As you said, had some big games this year in the U18s - 34 disposals and 17 marks in one game. Tended to play as more of a half forward this year, leading up the ground and delivering inside 50 as opposed to as a true KPP out of the goal square. With added size and responsibilty next season, it will be interesting to see what role he plays. One to watch, but SA have a strong group of talls next year - Durdin, Watchman, Bower and Spurling.

 

[LemmingMaster]

There are a number of talls in next years draft, might allow a few of those boardline talls this year to drop down a heap lower. Starting to really question where one of my second round favourites in Hourigan may drift a little further.

 

[Chris25]

There are a number of talls in next years draft, might allow a few of those boardline talls this year to drop down a heap lower. Starting to really question where one of my second round favourites in Hourigan may drift a little further.

I honestly don't know where Hourigan will go. If he wasn't a favourite of mine (and a South Australian) I'd probably have him a bit lower than where he is now - more towards the third round. But, I rate him much higher than Tim Membrey and he went right at the start of the third round last year. What Hourigan offers that others don't though, is an immediate impact. He is one of the few KPPs who I could genuinely see playing AFL football next year, so that has to count for something.

 

[Snoop Dog]

OK, a few points...

I'll start with Luke Reynolds. I think he has had a quite disappointing season. Only played two senior matches in the SANFL and was pretty quiet, and never really dominated in the Reserves either. His Championships form was OK and he played his role, but had a low possession count and I wasn't overly impressed with his disposal - which is usually a strength. And more so, I'm not sure what role he plays at the next level. He is reminding me too much of Luke Tapscott. Doesn't have the initial burst of speed or height needed up forward, and doesn't have the game for the midfield. I'm still a fan of turning him into a Josh Hunt/Shannon Hurn style defender personally, but that will take some time.

And while Dunstan does have similar athletic limitations, I don't feel as though it will impact his game as much - being an inside midfielder, and one who has performed well throughout the season at all levels.

Based on their performances this year and scope for improvement, I would be taking George Hewett ahead of Luke Reynolds. They are both a similar sized, but Hewett offers more in the midfield. And I don't feel as though Reynolds questionable ability to translate his goal kicking to the next level is worth an early selection.

Malcolm Karpany, I have in a similar range to you - basically, anywhere from pick 40 onwards. So about the same range as I have on Jay Kennedy Harris, who I think is slightly overrated (but that's not the point here). Karpany was one player who just missed out. He has shown some really good things this year, but I have Fantasia and McCartney ahead of him. You're right about Alex Saunders likely being a rookie, but there is just something there for me.

Finally, I would have both Aseri Raikiwasa and Patrick Wilson as outside rookie chances. Last year, I said Wilson would need to crack the senior team before he got his chance - he has yet to do that, but spent the year in the Reserves and showed his ball magnet ways can translate to the next level up from U18s. So that's promising, but I feel like he needs to take that next step next season first. As for Raikiwasa, I've called for him to be drafted for the last two years. If he were an extra inch or two taller, he'd be on a list already. But he is playing good football at league level in the SANFL. Still think Port Adelaide should have taken him over Hoskin last year. But Alex Georgiou from Norwood is the one, slightly smaller at 188cm and older at 23 but is the best shutdown defender in the SANFL and probably outside of the AFL.

Looking forward to seeing your list, especially if it means I have a friend in regards to Sam Bennett.

Yeah you have a friend in Sam Bennett thats for sure.

I will have Kennedy -Harris around 20-25 - i have been super impressed with his ability to go up the ground and take on good opposition. He is very clean and whilst not super quick his first 20m is good.

Take your point on Reynolds. I guess the games I have seen I have been impressed with him and I think he could play anywhere from HB to HF at senior level but being a SA I will defer to your better judgement.

I will def have Raki going albeit around a rookie selection. IN a draft that is so shallow I can see a club taking him as a rookie for a year and seeing how he goes.

 

[Nemisis]

Hey Chris, 2014 must be a pretty good draft with Bampton at pick 18. The kid is an incredible talent.

 

[kaisertorres]

Chris,
Not sure if you're familiar at with Local Victorian leagues as you're from W.A but there is a player, Justin Van Unen. Who booted 100 goals last season down in Rosebud. He won EFL DIV 1 goalscoring award for Vermont Eagles too.
He was a former Oakleigh Charger U18s in 07,08,09 (he missed most of 08 with an injury).
Have you heard this name been mentioned? It's been on Gilette trade week radio a bit, I assume someone like that would nominate for PSD?

 

[Chris25]

I will have Kennedy -Harris around 20-25 - i have been super impressed with his ability to go up the ground and take on good opposition. He is very clean and whilst not super quick his first 20m is good.

I initially had Kennedy-Harris quite high, and I accept the fact that he will go much higher than where I rank him. But, I'm not getting excited about him as much anymore. And a large part of that is because of the competition he is receiving from other similar players. I would be picking Jarman Impey and Dwayne Wilson before him, while I rate both Orazio Fantasia and Malcolm Karpany as having the better midfield games. Plus, being on the wrong side of 175cm I feel as though he may be slightly limited at the top level.

Hey Chris, 2014 must be a pretty good draft with Bampton at pick 18. The kid is an incredible talent.

Bampton has had a super year, absoluted dominating the Reserves and making your league debut as a 17 year old is pretty impressive. There are a few things I would like to see him improve upon next year - picking up a yard of pace and impact up forward example. Want to see how he goes before throwing his name too far up, but I rate him similarly as to Matt Crouch this year.

Outside of those I already named, SA still have a few more to watch out for - ruckman Peter Spurling and midfielder Jack Donkersley from Glenelg being the main two. Dean Gore, Jake Johansen, Billy Stretch and Josh Pobke being others. Meanwhile, Caleb Daniel is one of the best clearance players I've seen - arguably better than anyone in this whole draft. The problem though is that he is under 170cm, so I'm hoping for a little growth spurt.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I initially had Kennedy-Harris quite high, and I accept the fact that he will go much higher than where I rank him. But, I'm not getting excited about him as much anymore. And a large part of that is because of the competition he is receiving from other similar players. I would be picking Jarman Impey and Dwayne Wilson before him, while I rate both Orazio Fantasia and Malcolm Karpany as having the better midfield games. Plus, being on the wrong side of 175cm I feel as though he may be slightly limited at the top level.



Bampton has had a super year, absoluted dominating the Reserves and making your league debut as a 17 year old is pretty impressive. There are a few things I would like to see him improve upon next year - picking up a yard of pace and impact up forward example. Want to see how he goes before throwing his name too far up, but I rate him similarly as to Matt Crouch this year.

Outside of those I already named, SA still have a few more to watch out for - ruckman Peter Spurling and midfielder Jack Donkersley from Glenelg being the main two. Dean Gore, Jake Johansen, Billy Stretch and Josh Pobke being others. Meanwhile, Caleb Daniel is one of the best clearance players I've seen - arguably better than anyone in this whole draft. The problem though is that he is under 170cm, so I'm hoping for a little growth spurt.

I know it's early but any SA players worth talking about for the 2015 AFL Draft?

 

[Chris25]

Chris,
Not sure if you're familiar at with Local Victorian leagues as you're from W.A but there is a player, Justin Van Unen. Who booted 100 goals last season down in Rosebud. He won EFL DIV 1 goalscoring award for Vermont Eagles too.
He was a former Oakleigh Charger U18s in 07,08,09 (he missed most of 08 with an injury).
Have you heard this name been mentioned? It's been on Gilette trade week radio a bit, I assume someone like that would nominate for PSD?

I won't preted that I watch the EFL, but I have heard Justin Van Unen's name a bit over the last couple of years. He has trained with a couple of clubs in previous seasons but was overlooked, played in the Young Guns game and obviously just keeps kicking goals at every level. I believe Dylan (the Essendon rookie) is his cousin too. Wrong side of 190cm, but is certainly the type of player that would be worth a chance on the rookie list.

 

[flipper83]

Hey Chris, how do you see Zaine Cordy shaping up for next years draft? Is he a first round prospect or somewhere later on?

 

[Snoop Dog]

mate i also meant to make the comment that I am up there with you on McStay. I accept he has been up and down but his type so often are. He has all the tools i reckon. Becoming v v positive on Apenness and pushing up towards 30.

 

[Snoop Dog]

A Very Early Look At 2014...

Using this year's ladder as a basic order, I thought I'd take a quick look at next year. It's useful, in that a few clubs will likely be eyeing KPPs next year which may help eventually explain some draft picks this year.

1. GWS - Clem Smith (177cm midfielder - Perth)
2. Melbourne - Peter Wright (201cm ruckman - Calder)
3. St Kilda - Patrick McCartin (192cm forward - Geelong)
4. Western Bulldogs - Hugh Goddard (195cm forward - Geelong)
5. Gold Coast - Lachlan Weller (180cm midfielder - Broadbeach)
6. West Coast - Alec Waterman (182cm midfielder - Claremont)
7. Brisbane - Liam Duggan (182cm midfielder - Western Jets)
8. Adelaide - Sam Durdin (196cm defender - West Adelaide)
9. North Melbourne - Jackson Nelson (186cm midfielder - Geelong)
10. Collingwood - Daniel Capiron (187cm midfielder - Dandenong)
11. Richmond - Christian Petracca (185cm forward - Eastern Ranges)
12. Carlton - Jake Lever (190cm defender - Calder)
13. Port Adelaide - Mac Bower (190cm forward - Norwood)
14. Sydney - Ryan Lim (186cm midfielder - Claremont)
15. Geelong - Tom Lamb (190cm forward - Dandenong)
16. Fremantle - Jesse Watchman (196cm forward - West Adelaide)
17. Hawthorn - Bohdi Walker (182cm midfielder - Gippsland)
18. Essendon - Peter Bampton (182cm midfielder - Norwood)

Typically a year out, it's the midfielders who are impressing and we're waiting to see which KPPs step up to the next level. But, 2014 is different. The top KPPs have already risen to the top, and there is depth too.

Depending on who finishes bottom, I'd expect all three of Wright, McCartin and Goddard to come into calculations - and I'd probably rate them in that order, although I could go either way with the first two. I think McCartin will really show himself to be the top forward on offer next year. And then we have the South Australian bookends in Durdin and Watchman, plus a few more around that 190cm mark who should grow further over the next year - Bower, Lever, Lamb. I have to say, I particularly like Mac Bower from Norwood who can play at either end and has kicked some big bags of goals this season. One of my favourites at the moment.

One player who has already been talked about a bit is the medium forward Christian Petracca. He had some dominating performances in the TAC Cup this year - often kicking multiple goals and winning 20+ touches. I'm not quite as high on him as others appear to be, but at this early stage you can't overlook his form. Just looks a little more Crameri than O'Keefe to me, not that that's necessarily a bad thing.

But, at #1 is Clem Smith. If it were any other team than the KPP stocked Giants, it would probably be different. But Smith is a very exciting prospect, as a half back/midfielder. He doesn't have the size of Jack Martin, but he has just as many tricks.

As for the other midfielders, we have F/S and Academy picks in Waterman and Weller respectively. If their clubs finished so low, they may not go first round. But for the sake of this, I've included them. Duggan is an outside midfielder, and Bampton a strong inside player. Walker is a quick indigenous half back/outside runner who I quite like. And the others (Nelson, Capiron, Lim) are athletic half back/midfielders, although all three should shift permanently into the midfield next season.

Some players will drop right off, and others will step up. But it's just a quick list of those to keep an eye on, and what the teams will have in the back of their minds come draft day.

I'll take Bampton for the Pies at #10 and be thrilled.

 

[Mego Red]

Fantastic work.

 

[Chris25]

Hey Chris, how do you see Zaine Cordy shaping up for next years draft? Is he a first round prospect or somewhere later on?

He'd be a later round prospect for me at the moment. Has showed some promise, but doesn't really have the performances on the board and you'd be picking him on potential. I expect he'll play much better next year, hopefully with some extra bulk.

mate i also meant to make the comment that I am up there with you on McStay. I accept he has been up and down but his type so often are. He has all the tools i reckon. Becoming v v positive on Apenness and pushing up towards 30.

I do like Daniel McStay. Probably one of the few KPPs who would be a genuine option at either end of the ground, even though he does look a natural defender to me. I honestly don't know where I sit on Michael Apeness though. I just struggle to see him being best 22 at an AFL club. He has a lot of tools (height, strength, aggression) but looks more of a part time ruck/forward - and I'm not sure he is quite good enough at either position to offset the other. Kind of like James Sellar. I would probably take Ben Brown first, and I'm not a big Brown fan.

 

[Barney44]

Completely agree with your thoughts on Tom Hodgson. His development this year and especially since the carnival have caught a few out.

 

[Chris25]

I know it's early but any SA players worth talking about for the 2015 AFL Draft?

You're testing me now!

Stephen Tahana (182cm) from North Adelaide look good in defence this year. Ben Beioley (188cm) has been a dominant force up forward this year - 94 goals across 19 games in the SANFL U16s and U18s. Kieran Agius (185cm) is the other forward, the tall indigenous kid from North Adelaide finished with 68 goals from his 14 games.

Some other names I've heard of and seen in the U18s this year include Matthew Nunn, Josh Koster, Ryan Burton, Aaron Stewart and Maris Olekalns. Still a long, long way to go though.

 

[kaisertorres]

Chris,
Grant Weeks, from BFL. He's kicked 100+ goals in his last 4 seasons and they have been huge bags too. (2010 - 145,2011-125,2012-148,2013-137 ) He was previously on the Bendigo Bombers list. Surely, he would be looked into at some point?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

You're testing me now!

Stephen Tahana (182cm) from North Adelaide look good in defence this year. Ben Beioley (188cm) has been a dominant force up forward this year - 94 goals across 19 games in the SANFL U16s and U18s. Kieran Agius (185cm) is the other forward, the tall indigenous kid from North Adelaide finished with 68 goals from his 14 games.

Some other names I've heard of and seen in the U18s this year include Matthew Nunn, Josh Koster, Ryan Burton, Aaron Stewart and Maris Olekalns. Still a long, long way to go though.

Cheers Chris.

Weird seeing players being mentioned that were born in 1996 and 1997.

I was in prep in 1997.

 

[Snoop Dog]

mate what your view on a couple of other SA kids been following around;

Knight - Not sure I saw him on your list but i have a reasonably positive view of him. I think he struggled to find a heap of it at champs with their star studded mid but he went well at HF and I thought showed really good game sense and had a great knack for being where he should be.

Favretto - I have been pretty impressed with him at Wests. Look he will be late but he has a red hot go and uses it pretty well for an inside type.

Tippett - I think he will go this year. Told he tested well and would think he is the mature age defender that gets taken. I reckon Carlton would have him.

Batley - you have probably fallen over but I quite like this kid. He is electric and seems to read it pretty well coming out the back. Also looks like his ball use has improved.

 

[Chris25]

I have Riley Knight in the third round, currently at the back end going to Hawthorn at #52. I made a real effort earlier in the season to get him up the draft order, because I do think he'll go earlier than what people thought - although having said that, I'm bigger on Combe and Hewett at the moment. But Knight is a really clean player, and can play a number of roles. Reminds me of the Collingwood small forwards/midfielders, think he could easily have a similar impact.

For some reason, I've always had Nick Favretto as a rookie option but he is one who will have an impact I feel. He's big, fast and a real ball magnet. A lack of 'weapons' and impact going forward is why I see him dropping, also he is quite outside for someone of his size. I do think he'd be an above average rookie pick though.

Joel Tippett will get taken, I agree. You could make a case for Beard or Sully to get a chance, considering Tippett has already been at two clubs. But he just looks like the better AFL prospect, and he has improved over the last two years in the SANFL.

I seem to recall you being a fan of Nathan Batley for a while now. I'm the same with Matthew Rankine. Both have steadily improved, and have started playing consistent league football. Honestly can't see either getting drafted though, not until they play a full season in the league side. They both are pretty similar though - quick, good skills but still working on their consistency.