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List Mgmt. 2022 AFL Draft & Rookie Draft
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Magical_EddieBetts
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Just my personal opinion and will probably be unpopular opinion at that but watching the game yesterday, I wasn’t that impressed by Holland’s in the sense I think he wastes it with his disposal and his body type has me worried how he will handle the AFL level, he gets a lot of it and has a lot of talent but just me I don’t want us to take him with our first pick
It is universally accepted we need leg speed, two way running and connection upgrades. I and many others who have done our homework do no agree with an opinion formed subjectively in recent times. There is some possibility Hollands goes late, but some good “money” including mine that says he will be very close to our pick. I could raise an argument that he may not reach us. Minimal chance Phillipou reaches us, as the VIC boys get the recency biased press, and would grab him in a heartbeat if the chance came up. Hollands is safe as houses and fills a need.
With maturity Jefferson could play alongside Harry and Charlie, just as Jack Silvagni and TDK will/may play as forwards first. I favour the connector type with our first, but we categorically must draft a developing forward. I am more than happy if we go later for a more project type, but must take a genuine key forward option this year. Ideally we would wait another three years before targeting a Harry/Charlie replacement. However, if all goes well, we will be picking very late in the first round. If Tassie comes in, drafts will be compromised, making it harder still to replenish.
We absolutely hit the draft to obtain what we don’t have. We are oversupplied with inside mids and undersupplied with hybrid running types. Tall defence is “covered” short term, but we are arguably two developing/depth key forwards short.
I would be happy to add Acres, Hollands, (if he lasts that far) the enigmatic Keeler and Phoenix Foster with our likely three live picks. Gives us wing, hybrid mid and two forward/ruck throws at the stumps, who also have enough upside to be considered potential swingmen. Injury permitting, we have the time to develop some players from scratch, with the added benefit of minimal salary cost as draftees.
This overlooks some decent defensive prospects, inside mids and some forward/mid hybrids, but where we are at now with our list requires incremental improvements and progression planning, which fortunately is not urgent as yet. We will, however not be able to fill multiple holes in a short space of time with limited and late draft picks in the near future.
2023 hit the draft again unless we get an opportunity too good to overlook. Sweet spot to find a young key defensive throw at the stumps, look at a medium defender, and assess our small forwards progress. With a bit of luck we will have father/son prospects to consider in 2024 and 2025.
JuddgementDay
Brownlow Medallist
So which draftee has the best kick & pace, and is around our pick?
Magical_EddieBetts
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The players I like are Elijah Hewett, Bailey Humphrey (I liked his game yesterday but his kicking needs to be better) and Max Gruzewski who I’m really hoping we select with our second pick
In my opinion Hollands is plenty strong enough. He has a frame which he will build in to. His brother is a tank, borne of a year on the sidelines with an ACL, hitting the gym, then being given time to adjust to his increased bulk before being put under extreme load. He is not the runner his younger brother is.
Ollie Hollands, being an endurance runner will not bulk as quickly as brother Elijah, which I see as a good thing. Let him play outside, wing, HBF, hff, we need runners and connectors. In an ideal world, by his third or fourth year he has matured to the level to go inside consistently and add another layer to our bulls. Crippa and George will be “seniors” by then and progression will become a thing. We will be picking a circa #18 annually during that period, so need to plan ahead.
Add to my fairytale and include the Campo boys on the outside around then as well as young Skywalker who emulates his old man for draft range. (An old supporter can dream
)
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Michael, I have no idea how you've arrived at the conclusion that our list is so close to being over the hill that we desperately need to trade our 2023 first rounder for an early and mid second rounder in 2022.
Nor how you've determined that a team that has a stated goal of contending and winning finals now is best served by offloading a genuine best 22 defender or a third year project utility for a late second rounder.
It makes no sense. None whatsoever.
We have next to no players over 30 - Ed Curnow the only one, assuming he's going around again.
Our midfield options are Cripps (27), Hewett (26), Kennedy (25), Setterfield (24), Fisher (24), Cerra (22), Dow (22), Walsh (22), Philp (21) and Carroll (19).
Specialist wings to be Acres (27), O'Brien (23) and Cottrell (22).
The ruck division is Pitto (26), TDK (23) and Mirkov (22).
We have a forward line from Martin (27), Curnow (25), Owies (25), Cuningham (25), McKay (24), Silvagni (24), Honey (20), Durdin (20) and Motlop (18).
Backline from Newman (29), Docherty (28), Saad (28), Williams (28), Plowman (28), McGovern (27), Durdin (26), Marchbank (25), Weitering (24), Boyd (24) and Young (23).
Call him a utility - Kemp (21) could be forward, defender, both, or even a mid hybrid.
The choice between two kids drafted at 20 and 30 this offseason versus one kid drafted at 12-18 next season is not going to define our next decade. We've got a good (young) spread of talent. And if in 3-4 years time the likes of Carroll, Philp, Motlop, Kemp, Durdin etc. haven't come on, we can do the same thing we did with the recruitment of Cerra and target players from those drafts who have come on.
Taking 3 picks or 5 in this years draft matters a hell of a lot less than who we pick and how we develop them. And skewing the list too young by trading out best 22 players or half-developed 21yos is going to severely hamper our ability to win enough games to make finals and then win those finals.
And if we did take 5+ kids in the draft, sacrificed some mature talent, and then missed or got bundled out in finals - I'm sure you'd be quick to let us it had nothing to do with the off-season strategy you demanded, and was instead just evidence of mental weakness or a losing culture from the players.
I think Hollands makes very good decisions and uses it really well.
Magical_EddieBetts
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I respectfully disagree
Best in the business
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Firstly, you must be forgetting that Vic Country don't actually train together right? They don't have a game plan, nor specialist roles in their team... they just rock up the day or two before their game as opposed to Metro who train sporadically through the season. It's pretty difficult to showcase elite 'decision making' in that setting.
Secondly, he was playing inside mid for the entire game and probably showed more skill by foot than 90% of the players on the ground. The only players who I thought showed more 'skill' or composure were playing half back which has always been the easiest place to showcase kicking skills as you're generally under the least pressure while the field is the most open it will be.
Even in those circumstances:
Went at 83% efficiency
Had the most score involvements on the ground
Was kick dominant with 15 kicks out of his 23 touches
Showed complete ambidexterity with almost no difference between his left and right.
Had a nice goal assist under pressure
Had the highest pressure rating on field
I thought he made 1 or 2 errors but overall he was the most aggressive user by foot all day often going for corridor kicks on a 45 which helped split open the opposition defence.
Either way, looking at Hollands as a wing prospect for next year he won't be playing the same role as he did yesterday. He'll be under far less pressure in far more space and really I don't think you could ask for much more from him given he was up against 4 of the 5 top inside mid prospects of this draft.
As I said only concern is his body, if the club was sure he'd be able to add some size on easily and find an extra yard of pace I'd say he's the absolute perfect pick up on a wing for us.
Pommylovescarlton
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Too kind my friend
TENACIOUS
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Personally lm not a fan of 3 talls in the forward line. Carlton is lucky it has 2 high quality key forwards, unlike a lot of clubs.
You don’t use a first round pick on a backup player or in this case a backup tall forward. To use a first round pick on a player like Jefferson you have to be planning on him coexisting with harry and Charlie in the future. I’d rather a smaller more mobile type like jsos as the 3rd option who can also provide pressure.
I’m hoping we use our first pick on a medium size player.
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G
l am not sure giving away any of those 3 for a pick in that range is going to change the world, if we were going to be more aggressive trading up places to 6-8 would makes a whole lot more sense as some excellent kids in that range.
Giving away a future first for a pick in the 20's makes very little sense, quite different if it was a pick in the top 10-12, but a pick in the 20's absolutely no.
l am not sure giving away any of those 3 for a pick in that range is going to change the world, if we were going to be more aggressive trading up places to 6-8 would makes a whole lot more sense as some excellent kids in that range.
Please do not twist what I wrote. I said we need to double down on the draft this year if we are to bring on a group together before our best players are too old. I did not say they are over the hill today.
Marchbank, Mcgovern and Kemp are all similar so if the deal is right turn one of them into a pick that fills a need.
The difference between me and you is you think the list is close to a premiership and I don't it is yet so I laid out a path on how to get there.
Two picks in the 20s in an even draft when next years first will be pick 11 to 15
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Harley Reid...would love him at Carlton. He looks better than any one in this draft
4flagsin5yrs
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Charlie plays tall and/or small - as required.
His endurance, awareness and footy smarts mean he is elite against mid and tall defenders alike.
He allows us to readily play another tall forward - would love to grab Keeler in the draft.
The aim & direction needs to be pick up players each year that complement and improve the list, your strategy is flawed as it selling away a 1st round future pick in a strong draft which could be 10-14 for a speculative pick in the 25-35 range this year.
Reid would be number 1 if he was in this draft. SA Moir would be top 6
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Heard twomey say next years a super draft. Feels like it
Early stages, not like 2018, but better top end talent than this year
Charlie is not a small in any way. Plays like a marking key forward who occasionally is good at collecting the ground ball. He moves better than many other key forwards but in no way does he have the agility or movement of a smaller type or provide the pressure.
Jsos is only a little shorter but not as bulky. Jsos plays far more like a medium small that can also take a mark and provide pressure.
Keeler lm not a big fan of based on a few highlights. Looked to lack physicality for a tall and also looked very laconic. Made me think he would be a good touch footballer. Have to see more though.
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Bletch
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JSOS (194) is taller than Charlie (192). But yes, he's not a small pressure forward.
thebluenewdeal
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That’s all true. However, I wouldn’t pick him up with our first pick and wouldn’t slide back to get him either.
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