List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...
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AsterixTheGaul said:
So listening to Gettable - Cal posed the proposal of Melbourne chasing Harley hard

The deal he mooted was:
View attachment 1671094

I have assumed Melbourne go premiers this or next year and losing Prelim the other year plus Freo staying outside the 8 in current position.

My initial thoughts are that I want Harley.

But the above would deliver for us

in 2023
Picks 6, 16/18, 20, 25, 31, 39, 50, 58 and 76

in 2024
All our picks plus a late R1

It would hinge on being able to get the Suns R1 pick which is currently 5 and likely to stay around that mark. Give up a mix of 21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58 for 5 (obviously not do all of them). Take to the draft 5, 6, 16/18 and one of 21/25/31.

I am thinking like 2018, the top 8 prospects are looking really strong.

Come away with a KPF at 5 (Curtin or Archer Reid), best available at 6 (Watson or Moir), a class flanker at 16/18 (Tholstrup or Philiactides) and best available at the single pick we keep at 21/25/31. Possibly still have enough points to match Livingstone after pick 40 as an NGA. Note that the names are likely to change as the season unfolds but I see this as a strong and pretty deep draft. The current names are indicative.

A long way to go but that would be tempting to Hawks or to us.
Click to expand...
Reckon it would be really hard to pass on Reid him and Ginbey could be absolute A grade in time.

Will be interesting what clubs like GWS and maybe Nth bring to the table if they really want Reid.
 

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Obeanie1 said:
North would go hard.

Ried, Sheezle and Wardlaw in two drafts.
Click to expand...
I don’t know how others feel about it but it’s weird how everyone is resigned to the fact that Hawthorn will get pick one because they want it bad.
Surely a clubs plan to rebuild isn’t just get pick one at all costs.
 
Obeanie1 said:
Not sure about the Melbourne Cup analogy.

There are realistically 4 teams in spoon contention. And the Hawks have seriously embraced the dark art of tanking.

At the 200m mark there are still 24 horses.

On a side note I wonder what appetite for risk we may have in trading our F1st into the 2023 early 1st round?

Actually reverse that, say we end with pick 2.

Trade our 2023 pick 2, 51 and 58 in exchange for GC 2023 pick 5/6, 24 and 33 and the Suns F1st.

Suns then can draft a player in 2023 before a bid for Cadman and pay for him with later picks. Suns land a Curtin / Watson / Dursma plus their academy kid Jed Walter?

We lose pick 2 plus two 3rd rounders. Gain pick 5/6, two 2nd rounders and the Suns 2024 1st rounder likely between 6 and 10.

2023 draft picks 5/6, 20, 24, 31, 33 and 39.

2024 retain all our picks, gain Suns 1st 6 -10.
Click to expand...
😍 that's a ripper mate . Don't know if the suns would go for it but it looks pretty dam good from our end 👏
 
Chump Change said:
To have #1 and not take Harley would be pure nuts. And it doesn't matter if he ends up a spud. Right now he's way closer to sure thing to be a top5 AFL player than anyone else in years.

Draft calculators are not accurate. They give clubs points for FS and Academy, but in an open market most clubs will not trade the top picks for an assortment of lower picks of the same total point value.

Trading out #1 (3000)
for
6 + 16 + 18 + 25 (4559)

That a loading of 50% and I still wouldn't do that deal.

And swapping
21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58
for 5

I don't think any club is doing that deal unless they need points for FS/A. And even then I think they will get a better offer.

And why has Cal chosen Melbourne? Already full of talent and I'd assume cap. There's going to be a lot of clubs offering for that #1 pick this year.

Unless Harley has a near rival, I can't see anyone passing him up.
Click to expand...
A few points

1. Much the same about Sam Walsh was stated in 2018 as we are hearing about Harley Reid. Also the 2018 draft top 10 and next 20 feels similar to this year (albeit a long way to go).

2. The trade scenario I floated was dependent on being able to buy the Suns pick 5. The Suns have 3 academy prospects - one is expected to be potentially top 4 or 5 (other 2 in top 30) meaning they will need points. So the scenario is a real possibility. Of course if the Suns tank they get inside the likely pick for Walters and will take another top end talent plus their academy prospects.

3. The deal you proposed (I wrote a mix of those meaning not necessarily all but the basis of) was all of

And swapping
21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58
for 5

1682514274590.png

That is a premium of over 1,200 points and yet you are sceptical that the Suns chasing points would not do it! Let's explore other similar trades.

4. By comparison, in 2022, there was a deal with Lions and GWS with 15 for 21 and a GWS F2 (I assigned a value of pick 24 for the sake of it)

1682514094633.png

This is effectively a premium of 500 points.

5. In 2018 (the same year I am likening to this year), Port and Freo did a deal

1682515094461.png
Pick 6 that year came at a premium of around 900 points. 2018 was considered to have a very attractive top end 8 like it is mooted for this year's top 10.


6. Let me stick with the 2018 similarity

Do you draft
Sam Walsh with 1
Collier Dawkins with 20
Foley with 31
J Cameron with 39
Kennerley with 50
Turner with 58

or

Rozee with 5
Ben King with 6
Dursma at 18
Rowbottom at 25
Use the points of later picks on our NGA in Livingstone

plus the following year Stephens with 16


When viewed with an overlay as 2018 actually happened, I would go with the second option every day of the week.


7. Why Melbourne? They have the draft capital since they sold Jackson at a huge premium. They will need a gun to follow Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver. Harley will be on minimum wage for the first 2 years and hence not a salary cap issue. And finally, Taylor at Melbourne has the balls to do the deal - they have been one of the most active traders of R1 picks excluding the academy clubs.



So I was extrapolating on Cal's possible trade idea. I thought it worth debating as that is one massive kitty thrown at pick 1 and always worth evaluating and considering.

Obeanie1 - I have done enough what ifs for you?
 
CountryLad said:
Reckon it would be really hard to pass on Reid him and Ginbey could be absolute A grade in time.

Will be interesting what clubs like GWS and maybe Nth bring to the table if they really want Reid.
Click to expand...
GWS are likely players but I sense Norf will be cautious about too many chips on the single bet a la JHF. Besides, Norf need volume as well as quality.
 
Monocle said:
Depends what your expectations were / are.

For me I have already come to terms with the fact and accepted that all three of Yeo, Shuey and NN are cooked.

Shuey and NN have for me, been certainties, for sometime now, however regarding Yeo I was initially a bit more hopeful, but this latest occurrence has me realising that he is probably cooked too.
Click to expand...
You forgot one, Mcgovern. If not completely cooked then certainly medium rare. We can't seriously be offering him 800k x 2 years?
 
Monocle said:
For The Record: I don't think we will be holding the # 1 pick I think Hawthorn will what ever it takes to gain that pick.

If and its a BIG IF , we did somehow end up with pick # 1, then IMO there are only two Clubs that I think would have the balls and the draft capital / players to be able to put a deal together.

The last few years the two teams that have shown that they are open to trading up the draft board in big licks are Melbourne and GWS.
Come the end of the season both these Clubs will hold very strong draft hands and may be able to at least table a serious offer.

Reid being from up the NSW / Victorian boarder may be open to a move to NSW .... thats not for us to worry about thats GWS's problem.
But one thing, IMO that would be an absolute non negotiable with GWS would be that Sam Taylor is part of the trade, otherwise the conversation gets shut down pronto.

As it stands right at the minute, predicting who will hold the # 1 pick come draft night, is about as hit and miss as picking the winner in The Melbourne Cup at the 200 meter mark of the race, with another 3000 meters to go.
Click to expand...

Not sure about the bolded, Hawks are 2 kicks away from being 2 games ahead of us and (arguably) already almost out of our reach
 
Get_The_Gaff said:
😍 that's a ripper mate . Don't know if the suns would go for it but it looks pretty dam good from our end 👏
Click to expand...

May need to massage the later picks but feel there is an opportunity where both clubs win.

Suns get two top 5 kids this year and give up two picks between 5 and 10. We add 2023 Ports 2nd and our 3rd for points. Get two lower 2023 2nds back.

If Max King leaves next year they get back into the 1st round and they already have his replacement plus a gun CHB in Curtin or a gun small in the Magician.
 
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Ash Johnson is a no from me. George - i rate him but the timing is right for a 3rd banana. I'd take him for a pick around 30 and switch up to wing or half back for a bit.
 
AsterixTheGaul said:
A few points

1. Much the same about Sam Walsh was stated in 2018 as we are hearing about Harley Reid. Also the 2018 draft top 10 and next 20 feels similar to this year (albeit a long way to go).
Click to expand...

Walsh was a clear number 1, but this Reid guy is considered next level.

Consider the best players in the game: Cripps, Oliver, Daicos, Petracca, Bont, Uniacke, Brayshaw, Cameron.

All bar Cameron are mids.

What are the skills sets that differentiate them from lesser players? Decision making, disposal accuracy, ability to win the hard ball.

Essentially, they're elite at two of those attributes and very good at the other. They all have some sort of top end mix of those 3 things. Typically it's hard to have all 3 because the guys who are elite at winning the hard ball have less time to make decisions and make effective disposal because they are under duress more often.

So who is at the top of the apex? Could be any player with that mix. This season it's Daicos, he's more decision and disposal over hard ball. But in general, its the guys who are more hard ball that are more often at the top of the tree. Why? Because when the crunch moments come they impose themselves on games and moments of games with their physicality. ** how to say bull without saying bull

What Harley Reid shows he is a very good chance of becoming - that Cripps, Dusty, Oliver type who is a top 5 player in the AFL. At under 17 he has something extra that Sam Walsh didn't have. And I rate Walsh highly.

The team who has #1 pick shouldn't even consider for a millisecond to trade that pick.
 

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AsterixTheGaul said:
A few points

1. Much the same about Sam Walsh was stated in 2018 as we are hearing about Harley Reid. Also the 2018 draft top 10 and next 20 feels similar to this year (albeit a long way to go).

2. The trade scenario I floated was dependent on being able to buy the Suns pick 5. The Suns have 3 academy prospects - one is expected to be potentially top 4 or 5 (other 2 in top 30) meaning they will need points. So the scenario is a real possibility. Of course if the Suns tank they get inside the likely pick for Walters and will take another top end talent plus their academy prospects.

3. The deal you proposed (I wrote a mix of those meaning not necessarily all but the basis of) was all of

And swapping
21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58
for 5

View attachment 1671273

That is a premium of over 1,200 points and yet you are sceptical that the Suns chasing points would not do it! Let's explore other similar trades.

4. By comparison, in 2022, there was a deal with Lions and GWS with 15 for 21 and a GWS F2 (I assigned a value of pick 24 for the sake of it)

View attachment 1671271

This is effectively a premium of 500 points.

5. In 2018 (the same year I am likening to this year), Port and Freo did a deal

View attachment 1671280
Pick 6 that year came at a premium of around 900 points. 2018 was considered to have a very attractive top end 8 like it is mooted for this year's top 10.


6. Let me stick with the 2018 similarity

Do you draft
Sam Walsh with 1
Collier Dawkins with 20
Foley with 31
J Cameron with 39
Kennerley with 50
Turner with 58

or

Rozee with 5
Ben King with 6
Dursma at 18
Rowbottom at 25
Use the points of later picks on our NGA in Livingstone

plus the following year Stephens with 16
Click to expand...


AsterixTheGaul said:
·
Kamdan
·
19 Apr 2014
When viewed with an overlay as 2018 actually happened, I would go with the second option every day of the week.


7. Why Melbourne? They have the draft capital since they sold Jackson at a huge premium. They will need a gun to follow Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver. Harley will be on minimum wage for the first 2 years and hence not a salary cap issue. And finally, Taylor at Melbourne has the balls to do the deal - they have been one of the most active traders of R1 picks excluding the academy clubs.



So I was extrapolating on Cal's possible trade idea. I thought it worth debating as that is one massive kitty thrown at pick 1 and always worth evaluating and considering.

Obeanie1 - I have done enough what ifs for you?
Click to expand...
 
Chump Change said:
Ash Johnson is a no from me. George - i rate him but the timing is right for a 3rd banana. I'd take him for a pick around 30 and switch up to wing or half back for a bit.
Click to expand...
Can't see an uncontracted player who can't get a regular game and has just done an ACL being worth a 2nd rounder TBH.
 
Tugga27 said:
Can't see an uncontracted player who can't get a regular game and has just done an ACL being worth a 2nd rounder TBH.
Click to expand...
Soz, forgot about the ACL. I sort of click off from footy world a lot more when we're bottom 4 to make the time seem faster.

Happy to pay a 3rd for him, but wouldn't be reaching.
 
Chump Change said:
Consider the best players in the game: Cripps, Oliver, Daicos, Petracca, Bont, Uniacke, Brayshaw, Cameron.

All bar Cameron are mids.
Click to expand...
But you could easily make a case for non mids to join that list. I’d start by suggesting Greene, Moore and Curnow.

And for mids, give me Miller ahead of Brayshaw.
 
Swaps i'd do for pick 1.

I'd happily do a straight swap of Sam Taylor and Pick 5 for pick 1.

Say Melbourne end up with 6 and 17. I'd want both picks and JVR.

Mcgovern comes back, has a very strong last few games and leaves for money. We get band 3 compensation.

Take Sam Taylor, pick 5, 19,20,30,37 and 48 to the draft. Sam Taylor is one of the very few players i'd offer a 6/7 year contract to in the league.

The second option in that scenario leaves us with 6,17,19,20,30,37,48 and JVR. JVR will likely only end up a being a great second tall forward but I would take that with Darling only a couple of years away from retirement.

Give me an A grader and 6 shots in this draft and i'd be very happy.
Or a likely B grader who could get better than that and 7 shots in the draft.

Both scenarios give the club the ability to remove most of the dead wood all at once.

Hurn, Shuey, McGovern, Nicnat gone due to retirement.
Clark, Exxon, Rotham, Witherden, Foley, West, Winder.

Nicnat kept on in a role at the club as a development and ruck coach even if it means delisting him and putting him on the rookie list, I doubt someone else is picking up the contract tab.

Then in 2024 drag as much of our 2025 draft stock into next year and start going hard at free agents with the retirement of Gaff.
 
Gutted for Shuey. Poor bloke just can't get it done anymore.

I think we need to be honest with ourselves though: it was never viable to split your time being a leader of the club and a leader of illuminati at the same time.
 
WCE_phil said:
Swaps i'd do for pick 1.

I'd happily do a straight swap of Sam Taylor and Pick 5 for pick 1.
Click to expand...
That's nuts with Reid on the table. With a hamstrung Warlord and flight risk Sheezel, who aren't in the same league as Reid at 17, sure.

The hope is that who you draft with a top 5 pick ends up the calibre of Oliver, Cripps etc. They are the hardest players to acquire and the most important players to premiership success. And we don't even know if Reid will get there. We just know he's a surer thing than most others. And not just a better chance at being an A grade 200 game mid, we're talking about a generational player. That's a realistic potential.

Guys like Sam Taylor are easier to find. We have Barrass, we have Bazzo. We will probably find another player capable of being a stand out KPD in the next few drafts. Probably post #15.

Why would you give up a really strong chance to get a generational midfielder for a player we will find anyway? It's crazy talk.
 
If we keep pick 1, you have to take Reid shy of a stupid offer of draft picks.

It's all good and well having quantity of good picks, but you also need superstar players to win flags and Reid projects to be just that.

That said, Hawks have that pick in the bag. We're down to 27 fit players, 6 of whom are on the rookie list, and we're still sitting above them.
 
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