List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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Link to contract status of all players


Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

 
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So listening to Gettable - Cal posed the proposal of Melbourne chasing Harley hard

The deal he mooted was:
1682501962677.png

I have assumed Melbourne go premiers this or next year and losing Prelim the other year plus Freo staying outside the 8 in current position.

My initial thoughts are that I want Harley.

But the above would deliver for us

in 2023
Picks 6, 16/18, 20, 25, 31, 39, 50, 58 and 76

in 2024
All our picks plus a late R1

It would hinge on being able to get the Suns R1 pick which is currently 5 and likely to stay around that mark. Give up a mix of 21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58 for 5 (obviously not do all of them). Take to the draft 5, 6, 16/18 and one of 21/25/31.

I am thinking like 2018, the top 8 prospects are looking really strong.

Come away with a KPF at 5 (Curtin or Archer Reid), best available at 6 (Watson or Moir), a class flanker at 16/18 (Tholstrup or Philiactides) and best available at the single pick we keep at 21/25/31. Possibly still have enough points to match Livingstone after pick 40 as an NGA. Note that the names are likely to change as the season unfolds but I see this as a strong and pretty deep draft. The current names are indicative.

A long way to go but that would be tempting to Hawks or to us.
 
Retire -
Hurn
Shuey
Naitanui

Delist -
O’Neill
Foley

Retain -
Cripps (1 Year)
McGovern (1 Year - but he’ll want 2)
SPS
Waterman
Culley

In the Gun -
Clark
West
Petrucelle
Witherden (closest to being retained I think)
J.Williams

So 5 right away with another 5 in the gun.

Reality probably sees it land around 8-10 with maybe a wantaway.

5-6 in the draft plus maybe a free agent and a trade?
If witherden gets another year i will ****ing spew.

Slow , not tall and inconsistent kicking .

There is a reason Brisbane shipped him off .
 
If witherden gets another year i will ******* spew.

Slow , not tall and inconsistent kicking .

There is a reason Brisbane shipped him off .

No certainty but he was B22 to start the season before ‘Injury Crisis 2: The Return to Rehab’ and he came straight back into the starting line up when he was over his concussion….so I’d say he’s currently in the frame to get another deal.
 

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So listening to Gettable - Cal posed the proposal of Melbourne chasing Harley hard

The deal he mooted was:
View attachment 1671094

I have assumed Melbourne go premiers this or next year and losing Prelim the other year plus Freo staying outside the 8 in current position.

My initial thoughts are that I want Harley.

But the above would deliver for us

in 2023
Picks 6, 16/18, 20, 25, 31, 39, 50, 58 and 76

in 2024
All our picks plus a late R1

It would hinge on being able to get the Suns R1 pick which is currently 5 and likely to stay around that mark. Give up a mix of 21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58 for 5 (obviously not do all of them). Take to the draft 5, 6, 16/18 and one of 21/25/31.

I am thinking like 2018, the top 8 prospects are looking really strong.

Come away with a KPF at 5 (Curtin or Archer Reid), best available at 6 (Watson or Moir), a class flanker at 16/18 (Tholstrup or Philiactides) and best available at the single pick we keep at 21/25/31. Possibly still have enough points to match Livingstone after pick 40 as an NGA. Note that the names are likely to change as the season unfolds but I see this as a strong and pretty deep draft. The current names are indicative.

A long way to go but that would be tempting to Hawks or to us.
If we get a chance to draft Harley Reid you just do it .

Unless he pulls the don't want to leave Vic card then you do the trade and tell the media he pulled the don't want to leave Vic card .

Otherwise the media will forever talk about how we let a generational talent slip through our fingers
 
So listening to Gettable - Cal posed the proposal of Melbourne chasing Harley hard

The deal he mooted was:
View attachment 1671094

I have assumed Melbourne go premiers this or next year and losing Prelim the other year plus Freo staying outside the 8 in current position.

My initial thoughts are that I want Harley.

But the above would deliver for us

in 2023
Picks 6, 16/18, 20, 25, 31, 39, 50, 58 and 76

in 2024
All our picks plus a late R1

It would hinge on being able to get the Suns R1 pick which is currently 5 and likely to stay around that mark. Give up a mix of 21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58 for 5 (obviously not do all of them). Take to the draft 5, 6, 16/18 and one of 21/25/31.

I am thinking like 2018, the top 8 prospects are looking really strong.

Come away with a KPF at 5 (Curtin or Archer Reid), best available at 6 (Watson or Moir), a class flanker at 16/18 (Tholstrup or Philiactides) and best available at the single pick we keep at 21/25/31. Possibly still have enough points to match Livingstone after pick 40 as an NGA. Note that the names are likely to change as the season unfolds but I see this as a strong and pretty deep draft. The current names are indicative.

A long way to go but that would be tempting to Hawks or to us.
Not sure.

On the one hand we get to do a massive list clean out.

On the other hand would prefer picks at the pointy end rather than quantity.
 
No certainty but he was B22 to start the season before ‘Injury Crisis 2: The Return to Rehab’ and he came straight back into the starting line up when he was over his concussion….so I’d say he’s currently in the frame to get another deal.
He is not a best 22 player in a contending team .

Being in our best 22 is a low bar at the moment.

Rotham is in the same boat .

I would rather have hough and chesser cutting their teeth off the HBF at least you know they can keep up with the opposition unlike treacle slow witho .

Duggan , cole , hough , chesser , Jones > witherden
 
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He is not a best 22 player in a contending team .

Being in our best 22 is a low bar at the moment.

Rotham is in the same boat .

I would rather have hough and chesser cutting their teeth off the HBF at least you know they can keep up with the opposition unlike treacle slow witho .

Duggan , cole , hough , chesser , Jones

Mate we are a few years off being a contending team - guys like Witherden tend to populate sides at the lower end of the table, and probably carve out a niche to be effective/experienced enough around the middle of the table too.

Looks like he’ll play plenty of footy this year to confirm his immediate future one way or another either way.
 
So listening to Gettable - Cal posed the proposal of Melbourne chasing Harley hard

The deal he mooted was:
View attachment 1671094

I have assumed Melbourne go premiers this or next year and losing Prelim the other year plus Freo staying outside the 8 in current position.

My initial thoughts are that I want Harley.

But the above would deliver for us

in 2023
Picks 6, 16/18, 20, 25, 31, 39, 50, 58 and 76

in 2024
All our picks plus a late R1

It would hinge on being able to get the Suns R1 pick which is currently 5 and likely to stay around that mark. Give up a mix of 21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58 for 5 (obviously not do all of them). Take to the draft 5, 6, 16/18 and one of 21/25/31.

I am thinking like 2018, the top 8 prospects are looking really strong.

Come away with a KPF at 5 (Curtin or Archer Reid), best available at 6 (Watson or Moir), a class flanker at 16/18 (Tholstrup or Philiactides) and best available at the single pick we keep at 21/25/31. Possibly still have enough points to match Livingstone after pick 40 as an NGA. Note that the names are likely to change as the season unfolds but I see this as a strong and pretty deep draft. The current names are indicative.

A long way to go but that would be tempting to Hawks or to us.
To have #1 and not take Harley would be pure nuts. And it doesn't matter if he ends up a spud. Right now he's way closer to sure thing to be a top5 AFL player than anyone else in years.

Draft calculators are not accurate. They give clubs points for FS and Academy, but in an open market most clubs will not trade the top picks for an assortment of lower picks of the same total point value.

Trading out #1 (3000)
for
6 + 16 + 18 + 25 (4559)

That a loading of 50% and I still wouldn't do that deal.

And swapping
21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58
for 5

I don't think any club is doing that deal unless they need points for FS/A. And even then I think they will get a better offer.

And why has Cal chosen Melbourne? Already full of talent and I'd assume cap. There's going to be a lot of clubs offering for that #1 pick this year.

Unless Harley has a near rival, I can't see anyone passing him up.
 
Mate we are a few years off being a contending team - guys like Witherden tend to populate sides at the lower end of the table, and probably carve out a niche to be effective/experienced enough around the middle of the table too.

Looks like he’ll play plenty of footy this year to confirm his immediate future one way or another either way.
Brisbane knew that he wasn't good enough and didn't waste their time with him . They even paid part of his salary to leave .
 

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Is anyone concerned that Yeo is listed as Groin again? Haven't we already been down that slippery road for a year or more now?

Depends what your expectations were / are.

For me I have already come to terms with the fact and accepted that all three of Yeo, Shuey and NN are cooked.

Shuey and NN have for me, been certainties, for sometime now, however regarding Yeo I was initially a bit more hopeful, but this latest occurrence has me realising that he is probably cooked too.

I thought the appointment of Shuey as Captain for another year was a mistake, but not one that surprised me, as it would have been a hard call and we don't generally make too many of the hard calls in a timely manner.

We have a tendency to be a touch more lenient and accomodating, affording players a year too long on the list and allow the longer
tenured servants of the Club to choose the timing of their own exits.

Whilst that attitude has some merit, it also comes at a cost.
 
So listening to Gettable - Cal posed the proposal of Melbourne chasing Harley hard

The deal he mooted was:
View attachment 1671094

I have assumed Melbourne go premiers this or next year and losing Prelim the other year plus Freo staying outside the 8 in current position.

My initial thoughts are that I want Harley.

But the above would deliver for us

in 2023
Picks 6, 16/18, 20, 25, 31, 39, 50, 58 and 76

in 2024
All our picks plus a late R1

It would hinge on being able to get the Suns R1 pick which is currently 5 and likely to stay around that mark. Give up a mix of 21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58 for 5 (obviously not do all of them). Take to the draft 5, 6, 16/18 and one of 21/25/31.

I am thinking like 2018, the top 8 prospects are looking really strong.

Come away with a KPF at 5 (Curtin or Archer Reid), best available at 6 (Watson or Moir), a class flanker at 16/18 (Tholstrup or Philiactides) and best available at the single pick we keep at 21/25/31. Possibly still have enough points to match Livingstone after pick 40 as an NGA. Note that the names are likely to change as the season unfolds but I see this as a strong and pretty deep draft. The current names are indicative.

A long way to go but that would be tempting to Hawks or to us.
I'd want 2x top 8 picks plus the extras you've listed. Potentially give up a generational player but get another 2 of the 8 you say are looking really strong plus teens early/mid 20's and the rest. Then maybe.
 
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No certainty but he was B22 to start the season before ‘Injury Crisis 2: The Return to Rehab’ and he came straight back into the starting line up when he was over his concussion….so I’d say he’s currently in the frame to get another deal.
He has been much improved this season. Keep!
 
It wasn't a mistake to give Shuey another year as captain. If we gave the captaincy to an Allen type this year he would end up covered in the stink of failure and have to carry that on his shoulders. It was almost inevitable that we were going to have another bottom 4 finish. Better to give the captaincy to Allen(or another younger player) when we are closer to the upswing stage of our rebuild.

North offering 3, 10 and a future 1st for 1 is more the type of offer that we should actually look at. The proposed Melbourne offer is too much of a pick and mix.
 
If we do finish last, I’d be ruling a line through any offer that didn’t include a top 5 pick as part of the package

For The Record: I don't think we will be holding the # 1 pick I think Hawthorn will what ever it takes to gain that pick.

If and its a BIG IF , we did somehow end up with pick # 1, then IMO there are only two Clubs that I think would have the balls and the draft capital / players to be able to put a deal together.

The last few years the two teams that have shown that they are open to trading up the draft board in big licks are Melbourne and GWS.
Come the end of the season both these Clubs will hold very strong draft hands and may be able to at least table a serious offer.

Reid being from up the NSW / Victorian boarder may be open to a move to NSW .... thats not for us to worry about thats GWS's problem.
But one thing, IMO that would be an absolute non negotiable with GWS would be that Sam Taylor is part of the trade, otherwise the conversation gets shut down pronto.

As it stands right at the minute, predicting who will hold the # 1 pick come draft night, is about as hit and miss as picking the winner in The Melbourne Cup at the 200 meter mark of the race, with another 3000 meters to go.
 
For The Record: I don't think we will be holding the # 1 pick I think Hawthorn will what ever it takes to gain that pick.

If and its a BIG IF , we did somehow end up with pick # 1, then IMO there are only two Clubs that I think would have the balls and the draft capital / players to be able to put a deal together.

The last few years the two teams that have shown that they are open to trading up the draft board in big licks are Melbourne and GWS.
Come the end of the season both these Clubs will hold very strong draft hands and may be able to at least table a serious offer.

Reid being from up the NSW / Victorian boarder may be open to a move to NSW .... thats not for us to worry about thats GWS's problem.
But one thing, IMO that would be an absolute non negotiable with GWS would be that Sam Taylor is part of the trade, otherwise the conversation gets shut down pronto.

As it stands right at the minute, predicting who will hold the # 1 pick come draft night, is about as hit and miss as picking the winner in The Melbourne Cup at the 200 meter mark of the race, with another 3000 meters to go.

Not sure about the Melbourne Cup analogy.

There are realistically 4 teams in spoon contention. And the Hawks have seriously embraced the dark art of tanking.

At the 200m mark there are still 24 horses.

On a side note I wonder what appetite for risk we may have in trading our F1st into the 2023 early 1st round?

Actually reverse that, say we end with pick 2.

Trade our 2023 pick 2, 51 and 58 in exchange for GC 2023 pick 5/6, 24 and 33 and the Suns F1st.

Suns then can draft a player in 2023 before a bid for Cadman and pay for him with later picks. Suns land a Curtin / Watson / Dursma plus their academy kid Jed Walter?

We lose pick 2 plus two 3rd rounders. Gain pick 5/6, two 2nd rounders and the Suns 2024 1st rounder likely between 6 and 10.

2023 draft picks 5/6, 20, 24, 31, 33 and 39.

2024 retain all our picks, gain Suns 1st 6 -10.
 
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I’m not suggesting Shuey should, but with the news he’s reaggravated his hamstring you’d think he’d be close to considering mid season retirement

He’s been an absolute warrior for the club and the times he has played it’s obvious the value he adds but his legs just can’t cope anymore

Darren Glass retired whilst captain in 2014 when his body failed him, I wonder if Shuey is considering doing the same.

Maybe I am suggesting it after all
Agreed, love boots and his commitment to the club but I think the times come unfortunately.
 
So listening to Gettable - Cal posed the proposal of Melbourne chasing Harley hard

The deal he mooted was:
View attachment 1671094

I have assumed Melbourne go premiers this or next year and losing Prelim the other year plus Freo staying outside the 8 in current position.

My initial thoughts are that I want Harley.

But the above would deliver for us

in 2023
Picks 6, 16/18, 20, 25, 31, 39, 50, 58 and 76

in 2024
All our picks plus a late R1

It would hinge on being able to get the Suns R1 pick which is currently 5 and likely to stay around that mark. Give up a mix of 21, 25, 31, 39, 50 and 58 for 5 (obviously not do all of them). Take to the draft 5, 6, 16/18 and one of 21/25/31.

I am thinking like 2018, the top 8 prospects are looking really strong.

Come away with a KPF at 5 (Curtin or Archer Reid), best available at 6 (Watson or Moir), a class flanker at 16/18 (Tholstrup or Philiactides) and best available at the single pick we keep at 21/25/31. Possibly still have enough points to match Livingstone after pick 40 as an NGA. Note that the names are likely to change as the season unfolds but I see this as a strong and pretty deep draft. The current names are indicative.

A long way to go but that would be tempting to Hawks or to us.
Draft Reid
 
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