Season defining five round block

Where will the Crows sit after these five games?


  • Total voters
    98
  • Poll closed .

Remove this Banner Ad

And what are the chances of the Crows finishing this round on top of the ladder? I'm glad you asked. Anyone keen for a shot?

View attachment 1672129
I believe those multis pay so much because the probability of all events going in the better's favour are **** all. If I recall high school maths correctly, the probability of (say) five 50/50 events all eventuating is:

0.5 × 0.5 x 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.031 or 3%.
 
I believe those multis pay so much because the probability of all events going in the better's favour are * all. If I recall high school maths correctly, the probability of (say) five 50/50 events all eventuating is:

0.5 × 0.5 x 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.031 or 3%.
100% correct. However, these are not 50/50 events that need to happen. The probability is given by 1 divided by the paying odds. $1.01 is about 99%, $1.05 is about 95%, $1.20 is 83%, $1.50 is 66.7%, $2 is 50%, $101 is just under 1%. That is assuming there is no margin taken by the agency offering the bet. That's why both sides of the line offer only $1.86 (53.7%) and not $2. So the actual probability is $1.86/2 divided by the odds, or 0.93/odds. $1.01 bookie's odds is then more like a 92% probability which should pay more like $1.08. $101 becomes real probability of 0.92% instead of 0.99%

So from the 5 leg multi, we get that the bookies think there is a one in 11,000 chance of them all happening.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

They did bring in Jackson to replace Lobbe. Mundy was a big loss to them as he was still performing at a high level when he retired, they probably thought their quality young midfielders would continue their development (beside Serong none have) and also brought in JOM.

Which has pushed Brodie out of the side - and he meshed with them so well last year. Seems Jackson move has been a bit like Fevola to Brisbane!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
If King doesn't play vs us, there's no excuses for not beating the Saints. We really should be winning that.

If we can jag another win against any of Collingwood, Bulldogs and the Lions and go 6-5 (Geelong is an automatic loss), I'd call that a pass mark. Anything less and we're not playing finals. Three wins in total and we're firmly in the finals mix, four wins and we're potential top four candidates, and five wins, then get on us for the flag ;) .
 
If King doesn't play vs us, there's no excuses for not beating the Saints. We really should be winning that.

If we can jag another win against any of Collingwood, Bulldogs and the Lions and go 6-5 (Geelong is an automatic loss), I'd call that a pass mark. Anything less and we're not playing finals. Three wins in total and we're firmly in the finals mix, four wins and we're potential top four candidates, and five wins, then get on us for the flag ;) .
We should be able to really stretch their backline as they only have 1 tall defender.
 
If King doesn't play vs us, there's no excuses for not beating the Saints. We really should be winning that.

If we can jag another win against any of Collingwood, Bulldogs and the Lions and go 6-5 (Geelong is an automatic loss), I'd call that a pass mark. Anything less and we're not playing finals. Three wins in total and we're firmly in the finals mix, four wins and we're potential top four candidates, and five wins, then get on us for the flag ;) .

We should be the saints whether King plays or not


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
We won in 1998, 2002 and 2003.

The 2002 game was when Ayres gave the old Geelong man the bird.


Whilst we have rarely won in Geelong, Geelong have had few wins in Adelaide (they have had more success since we moved to Adelaide Oval).

Also geelong failed to make the 8 in each of these years, while we obviously made at least a semi-final.

Everything has to go right for us to win there.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Sounds like Max King will be available for our game against St Kilda. Get ready for him to kick 6.0 against us lol.
 
Geez, that is a hard run! We would go in underdogs in all of them at this point, but plenty of reason for optimism with the way the team is playing.

If we can win 2 that would put is in a decent position with Suns in Darwin and Eagles at home going into the bye. 8-5 would be an excellent position to be in.

Now I've gone and looked ahead and done the ladder predictor. We finish 7th on 14-9 and play the Swans in the Elimination Final. We then defeat Melbourne and Collingwood on our way to play Geelong on Grand Final day. Too early to predict who'll win that.

Suns in Darwin looking a less easy task right at the moment.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Season defining five round block

Back
Top