Review 2024 Season Review - The Goodest, Baddest and Ugliest from the season

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Floating Doughnut said:
Im not sure if kulak is using fantasy points, raw CD points or SuperCoach points .
I assume they are fantasy points which are basically k/m/h points.
SuperCoach points include disposal, pressure acts , interceptions , shepherds , contested marks and game scaling points
awarded higher depending on time of game they earned points . It’s is quite complex the point system that clubs request.
Can’t remember the lad think Crows v Freo . Ben Keays snapped what looked like a match winning goal with a few seconds on the clock. A lad in his first game or two got a fantastic spoil on the goal line to give Freo the win.
He got 18 points for that spoil in SC rather than none in other formats.
Max does earn SC points from his great pressure
Kick ins and subbed game points need to be removed .
Click to expand...
Champion data player rating points

Player ratings > SuperCoach points > DT points
 

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Overall grade: D to D-, it's a failure of the season, though it all seems fixable with a preseason. I want to put this here as I do put a lot in the positives and I want to make sure we're upfront that in no way, shape or form do I view this season as a successful one. It's just that under-the-hood, there are a few silver linings.

We'll start with the ugly:
  • The struggles in our game plan. We came in with a profile that looked top 4 - what Hawthorn is now was us last year, profile wise - and some combination of we got ahead of ourselves and teams found ways to counter it, or our tweaks, lost it.
  • The two big areas was we struggled to score in the forward half and off turnover (which are interconnected), recording bottom 6 in both. Last year? we were third in scores from forward half and first off turnover. This is especially important as there isn't too many better indicators of if a team is legit then scores off turnovers. Effectively, we're not generating enough repeat entries, we're not scoring enough off repeat entries and that shit kills teams.
  • We also struggled to defend repeat entries with the 4th worst record, and that backs ups what the eye saw. Our half back line was a mess.
  • Milera being KO'd with another season ending injury. Lad just can't catch a break with his legs.
  • Thilthorpe missing most of the season with a knee injury. We may have missed one of the serious breakout seasons.
  • Pedlar season getting mostly wiped out with a shoulder injury.
  • Rankine missing 9 games due to a variety of issues since round 10. Especially as he was putting together a run where he was entering the elite.
  • Sloane contract and being retired without a farewell game. It looked a cowardly decision at the time and proved to be with the only difference is more retina damage for Rory.
  • Not using Curtin to replace Worrell when he went down with a shoulder injury. Easiest decision imaginable to use the kid who came in as one of the best key back prospects (with potential midfield, but industry wide, Curtin was seen as a KPD first) in the last draft as a intercepting tall for 10-weeks. Especially as Curtin was putting up solid numbers in a similar role. Especially as we were ****ing around with Curtin as a sub and had no idea where to stick him for a year or two whilst his body develops at that point.
  • Lack of a debut for Oscar Ryan. The kid has put up solid performance after solid performance in the SANFL and should have got an at worse, token debut.
  • Nicks starts the year with ~12 games to save his job. After all, it seems like coaches can wear one underperforming season every now and then, not two. It might be the making of him as a coach, and every coach will inevtiably have to survive these periods, but it's not ideal coming into a preseason with that sword dangling.
The Bad:
  • Losing a showdown to Port.
  • A record of 4-6 against bottom 8 teams. For all the talk of a hard draw, it's our inability to beat the mid-table that costs us, again!
  • A home record of 5-6-1, which was the 4th worst in the league. It can't be understated that for an interstate team to be in a position to go deep in finals, their home has to be a fortress. Ours was only on paper.
  • Winning only 9 first quarters and 8 third quarters all season. It's not uncommon for teams to have one quarter where they go close to 50% win rate. They don't have two.
  • Defensively, there isn't anything to write home about. We ended with the fifth worst defense by x-score, though it's worth noting this is something we became considerably worse at as the year dragged on. If going by pre and post bye for points conceded we were at 79.9 points conceded per match pre-bye, 90.4 points conceded post-bye - though some of this might be due to going back to a rebuilding club build with our experience/age decreasing.
  • After 3 big seasons as an inside midfielder, this one looked like the end was starting to come for Laird. He might be a bounce back candidate next year, but there was a lethargy and a carefree attitude to his game this campaign.
  • Dawson going through some second year blues as captain. There was a wild stat a fortnight(?) back from SENs CD analyst that Dawson was in the bottom 10 for effective kicks inside 50. I assume this is something that corrects in 2025.
  • Hamill getting game time? In 2024? Be serious lads, he's done and shouldn't have been on the list.
  • Look, no problem with the coaches giving Cook an extended run at it, but I found his run and his struggles particularly disappointing. Some of the pieces are there, like he's a good 1 v 1 player and goal kicker, but he looks like he's hit his ceiling as a footballer seeing how little improvement there has been since 2020. No, I don't buy the "oh we didn't play him in the 1's" excuse, four preseasons are going to make you a considerably better footballer on their own.
  • Being in the Luko sweepstakes. I agree, is not a bad player, but you've just found a spot to dump Curtin in for a year or two whilst his body and fitness develops (as he looks like he'll be on the standard 4-5 years to being a full time midfielder trajectory), and you're investigating an option which potentially spends a first round pick for that position? A position that isn't particularly important in the first place?
The Sad:
  • The end has come for Brodie Smith as a footballer.
  • The potential for Tex to leave.
  • The potential of a Keane breakout season into Collingwood player.
The Good (gameplan wise, as there are a few notable wrinkles in our year):

  • We ended the season 6th for scores from the defensive half, and scores from centre bounces. Effectively, fix the turnover game and the offense will quickly go from bottom of the pile to top six.
  • We are still hard to transition against, with the 4th lowest scores from chains that started in the defensive half.
  • We are also really good one v one, as one of the two teams who win > 30% of offensive 1 v 1s (Port is the other), and the fourth lowest defensive 1 v 1 loss rate at 23.6%. It is worth noting it's something we do rely on, with the highest average defensive 1v1 rate, and third highest offensive 1v1 rate.
  • We were still top 6 for rate of goals per inside 50.
  • We were very reliable on the set shot - which is a strange sentence to write, seeing our both our history and how this season went - with a +0.4 rating on set shot v expected set shot scores.
The good (individual):
  • On an individual level, Cook, Thilthorpe, Sholl, Fogarty, Rankine, Rachele, Dawson and Keays all went at >55% accuracy.
  • Thilthorpe run of form in 2024 puts him as the second best KPF by CD rating system (low sample size, notwithstanding). As said, we may have only had a glimpse of TT entering the elite. What's also worth tracking in the future is Riley Thilthorpe went at 2.1 goals, 0.9 goal assists, 6.4 score involvements and 2.7 marks inside 50 per game, which are all at pace for top 10 for key forwards in 2024.
  • Fogarty, rough start, but after round 6, he went at a 2.1 goals, 0.67 goals assist, and 6.1 score involvements per game pace. If Fog has now legit broken out, we could be looking at the new best KPF pairing in the league.
  • Soligo avoided that 3rd year midfielder curse and steadily improved on last year, with a 22 disp/3.9 clearance average. Faded as the year went on, but should be set for a breakout campaign next year with another big preseason.
  • I liked Rachele season. Not much to write home about, but I'm quite happy with a 1.4 goal, 0.8 goal assist, 5.4 score involvement year from a third year player. Also, the big improvement was shot selection as Rash had a 16.1% bump in goal accuracy. Will certainly be watching with interest to where a big preseason takes him, especially if Rankine moves out of the forward line which gives Rash the space to really make headway into the upper echelon of small forwards.
  • Rankine started to put together a run where he was about to break through into the elite. To the point that when it comes to medium forwards by CD rankings, it's Rankine then a whole lot of daylight until the second best which sums up just how influential he was. Needs to be a full time midfielder next year.
  • Hinge backed up his 2023 nicely.
  • Curtin could be a genuine chance at an RS next year if he's used as a third tall in the forward line.
  • I think there was a bit to like in all of Dowling, Worrell, Taylor, Berry, Bond, Nankervis and Michalanny seasons. None were outstanding, however all have a bit of intrigue heading into 2025.
  • Edwards and Ryan both look the goods in the SANFL. I'm especially curious on Edwards as he is very dynamic for his size.
  • Welsh looks a fine prospect in the SANFL. Also we have pick 4, and have a never ending need of highly talented lads.
Now for an off-season where we make need to make considerable list changes, start culling our 2018--2020 drafts, and get a good refresh into the list to straighten out our list profile.
 
Last edited:
Scorpus said:
Any predictions for the B&F?

I'm going with

1. Dawson
2. Keays
3. Soligo
4. Laird
5. Rankine
6. Fogarty
7. Hinge
8. Murphy
9. Sholl
10. Michalanney
Click to expand...

Not a bad top 10. I would trade Rankines spot for Fogarty.

Rankine had that 4 week suspension. 29 goals and 9 behinds from 15 games isnt bad. Fogartys 41 goals and 16 behinds from 23 games is solid.
 
So key points from the SEN CD review for Adelaide:

Top 3 ability to defend ball movement.
Top 4 pressure game in the competition.

That high marking, possession game that we tried to implement failed miserably (it's always nice when advanced stats back up the eye test), which led to:

Bottom 6 turning possession into scores.
Bottom 4 at moving the ball ourselves.

4 players under 23 that performed above expectations (my guess: Soligo, Rachele, Worrell, Nank?). Thilthorpe was not included, though it sounds like more of a "didn't play enough games" and not he wasn't up to snuff.
 
Last edited:
FR0GGY said:
The rating points really don’t like Max, or are we just biased here.
I know he had a few ordinary games this year, but he feels just so dependable most game.
Click to expand...

That's my read - seeing there are a few strange ratings in his profile. For instance, Michaelanny was rated < 6 in games such as West Coast (18 disps/8 score involvement/3 score launches/220 mg/80% DE), Richmond (25 disp/11 marks/5 score invovlements/2 score launches) + 2-3 others. So, it just looks like there is something in his game that the rating system is heavily marking down then a genuine issue.
 
Golumless said:
That's my read - seeing there are a few strange ratings in his profile. For instance, Michaelanny was rated < 6 in games such as West Coast (18 disps/8 score involvement/3 score launches/220 mg/80% DE), Richmond (25 disp/11 marks/5 score invovlements/2 score launches) + 2-3 others. So, it just looks like there is something in his game that the rating system is heavily marking down then a genuine issue.
Click to expand...

Is he gaining possession mostly from uncontested receives rather than intercepts or contested work? If I recall, the ratings system thinks most uncontested possessions are worthless
 
Scorpus said:
Is he gaining possession mostly from uncontested receives rather than intercepts or contested work? If I recall, the ratings system thinks most uncontested possessions are worthless
Click to expand...

Yup. Goes at a 26.5% contested ball rate (3.9 contested/10.8 uncontested) which isn't amazing for the position, so that makes sense. Especially when paired with a pretty middling kicking efficiency for a defender.
 

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Golumless said:
  • The two big areas was we struggled to score in the forward half and off turnover (which are interconnected), recording bottom 6 in both. Last year? we were third in scores from forward half and first off turnover. This is especially important as there isn't too many better indicators of if a team is legit then scores off turnovers. Effectively, we're not generating enough repeat entries, we're not scoring enough off repeat entries and that shit kills teams.
  • We also struggled to defend repeat entries with the 4th worst record, and that backs ups what the eye saw. Our half back line was a mess.

  • Defensively, there isn't anything to write home about. We ended with the fifth worst defense by x-score, though it's worth noting this is something we became considerably worse at as the year dragged on. If going by pre and post bye for points conceded we were at 79.9 points conceded per match pre-bye, 90.4 points conceded post-bye - though some of this might be due to going back to a rebuilding club build with our experience/age decreasing.

  • We ended the season 6th for scores from the defensive half, and scores from centre bounces. Effectively, fix the turnover game and the offense will quickly go from bottom of the pile to top six.
  • We are still hard to transition against, with the 4th lowest scores from chains that started in the defensive half.
  • We are also really good one v one, as one of the two teams who win > 30% of offensive 1 v 1s (Port is the other), and the fourth lowest defensive 1 v 1 loss rate at 23.6%. It is worth noting it's something we do rely on, with the highest average defensive 1v1 rate, and third highest offensive 1v1 rate.
  • We were still top 6 for rate of goals per inside 50.
  • We were very reliable on the set shot - which is a strange sentence to write, seeing our both our history and how this season went - with a +0.4 rating on set shot v expected set shot scores.
Click to expand...
I replied earlier but I think character limit blocked me- apologies for the mess above but I wanted to leave in the bits I am commenting on

Turnovers and lack of scoring in the forward half is a midfield issue - and it impacts going the other way.

I note your comment about our defense and while they struggled I thought they held their own considering the amount of ball the midfield allowed through

There were times individually we looked terrible ie Keane on Amartey and whoever the 3 people on Curtins man were etc - but collectively we did as much as we could with the repeated entries

I'm not as harsh on our backline - will be interesting to see who slots in where
 
GreyCrow said:
I replied earlier but I think character limit blocked me- apologies for the mess above but I wanted to leave in the bits I am commenting on

Turnovers and lack of scoring in the forward half is a midfield issue - and it impacts going the other way.

I note your comment about our defense and while they struggled I thought they held their own considering the amount of ball the midfield allowed through

There were times individually we looked terrible ie Keane on Amartey and whoever the 3 people on Curtins man were etc - but collectively we did as much as we could with the repeated entries

I'm not as harsh on our backline - will be interesting to see who slots in where
Click to expand...

It's not so much a midfield issue as it is a system issue. After all, a midfield that could be described as Dawson and Laird with a hope and a dream was the best team off scoring off turnovers, third best off scoring from chains starting in the forward half and was about league average defending from forward half last year, and on an individual level that unit did improve this year (especially, getting rid of Sloane in particular who fell off a cliff). However, I think the crux of the point is right, all of it stems from us getting our ball movement game wrong.

I do agree with not being too concerned about some of the individual efforts and they held their own in spite of our ball movement. Keane is going to be a big loss, if we do lose him, however.
 
Rory Walkerfield said:
Damo has managed to capture exactly how I feel. And sorry Damo, but you can pretty much guarantee that they aren’t ruthlessly reviewing the club.

View attachment 2096325
Click to expand...
Sounds like Barrett is being overly emotional and has spent too much time listening to the BF groupthink. He should go and support Port.
 
Orange crush said:
If this is real …. That’s terrible

View attachment 2096635
Click to expand...
It's true.

It's a post-fact analysis though, of the final ladder positions of who we played twice and who we didn't.

Before the season the analysis showed we had medium difficulty draw based on last seasons standings.
 
Coopers said:
It's true.

It's a post-fact analysis though, of the final ladder positions of who we played twice and who we didn't.

Before the season the analysis showed we had medium difficulty draw based on last seasons standings.
Click to expand...
Fair enough …. But you really never know beforehand how teams are gonna play so post-fact gives truer result it seems
 

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Review 2024 Season Review - The Goodest, Baddest and Ugliest from the season

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