Season defining five round block

[Scorpus]

I said two wins. Basis for this being we'd beat St Kilda and there'd be an upset in one of the other 4 games.

Upset is yet to happen

 

[NSolis]

Still significant improvement from previous years, and you'd have to try pretty hard to avoid seeing it. One win from the block of five would be disappointing though - I'd say two would have been a solid result considering the quality of opposition.

 

[Dangarman]

I tipped us to be 6-5. I figured we would lose to Geelong and jag 2 of the other 4, but wasn't willing to call which two.

We sit 5-5, just inside the 8 on percentage. Draw wise, we've played 5 of the 7 others in the top 8 for a 2-3 result (Port(A) and StK(H) - Cwd(H), WB(A), Geel (A)).
We've played 5 of the bottom 10 for a 3-2 result (Carl(H), Freo(H), Haw (A) - Rich (H) and GWS (A))

I still blame the first two losses on the Sydney heat and following 6 day break. IMO on equal terms we beat both GWS and Richmond.

Somehow despite our bottom 6 finish last year we have repeat games against the current top 3. 5 of our last 13 (Tier 1) are against current top 4 sides (Cwd (A), Bris (H&A), Port (H) and Mel (A)).

The other 8 of the last 13 (Tier 2) are against bottom 8 sides (Ess (A), Syd (A), GC (H&A), GWS (H), Nth (H), WC (H&A)).

IMO with the extra game season 13 wins will be absolute minimum for finals entry.

So we have 5 wins in the bank. For every Tier 2 game we drop from here we need to pick up a tier 1 game. If we acknowledge Ross Lyon's acceptance of a 'mulligan', that was us this week. If we put in a repeat performance like last week, we will not deserve to play finals.

Just missing finals this year I think would be a good progression, and instil a belief that we are definitely good enough to go deep in 2024.

 

[WetCrow1991]

I still blame the first two losses on the Sydney heat and following 6 day break. IMO on equal terms we beat both GWS and Richmond.

The Richmond game, for sure. The GWS, nah. GWS were subjected to the same conditions, but they also had 1 on the bench for nearly half the game. There are no excuses for that GWS game.

 

[skam85]

Brisbane weren't fantastic against the Suns, I think we win this

 

[brucetiki]

The Richmond game, for sure. The GWS, nah. GWS were subjected to the same conditions, but they also had 1 on the bench for nearly half the game. There are no excuses for that GWS game.

It was hot and humid for that GWS game - 36 degrees and around 60% humidity. That heat/humidity is something GWS train in the pre-season, as opposed to the dry heat we have here during the pre-season.

GWS adapted to the conditions in the second half, something we failed to do.

Both sides were cooked the following week though (GWS lost to West Coast the following week, which in hindsight was far worse than our loss to Richmond.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Brisbane weren't fantastic against the Suns, I think we win this

Really good test for our backline. They've got some class up there with Gunston, Charlie & Bailey plus Daniher is in form.

Even McCarthy and Hipwood can be tricky match ups at times

 

[MarcusP2]

1-3.

We're pretty much where we have been the last two years

I think our best is better, but we haven't taken out the completely abject worst from our game. And because it's so bad, it's enough to lose many games even if we've been OK the rest of it. The way we played against the Dogs was as terrible as any game over the last 2 years as you say..

 

[Jarman3]

I think our best is better, but we haven't taken out the completely abject worst from our game. And because it's so bad, it's enough to lose many games even if we've been OK the rest of it. The way we played against the Dogs was as terrible as any game over the last 2 years as you say..

I think at the very least we're producing our worst a lot less often this year. But that just makes it stick out even worse when we do see it. Prior to Saturday I thought we'd finally put that level of utter sh*tfulness behind us, but there it was.

 

[Rotayjay]

You just can't trust the Crows. I was starting to trust the side not to play like that, but they did. If we lose to Brisbane it's not the end of the world, but like I keep saying, the manner in which we play will be more important.

 

[George Kramer]

The Richmond game, for sure. The GWS, nah. GWS were subjected to the same conditions, but they also had 1 on the bench for nearly half the game. There are no excuses for that GWS game.

Dawson played in the middle and we win

 

[Southerntakeover]

I think our best is better, but we haven't taken out the completely abject worst from our game. And because it's so bad, it's enough to lose many games even if we've been OK the rest of it. The way we played against the Dogs was as terrible as any game over the last 2 years as you say..

Our best in 2021 beat the undefeated Demons

 

[NSolis]

Aside from just using your eyes, where it's obvious the team is much better and more competitive week to week, percentage is the big indicator of improvement: 107.4% after 10 rounds vs 86.2% in 2021 and 80.2% in 2023. The wins have been far more convincing than the last two years, with a higher average winning margin and a lower average losing margin than 2021 or 2022 in the first 10 weeks. Of the 7 early season wins we had over the last two years, 5 of them were by 2 goals or less and only one was convincing (beating North by 41 in 2021). This year we've only had one close win and one close loss.

The draw is comparable across 10 rounds in all years too - we played five eventual finalists in the previous two years and five current top 8 sides this year. Last year we hadn't played an eventual top 4 team in the first 10 weeks, this year we've played Collingwood and Port, which is presumably at least one.

 

[Cuzz09]

You'll beat Lions.

Bris can't play A.Oval at all.

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Yep.

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[GreyCrow]

I got it right by getting it wrong

Had us 6-5 so tick

But I thought we might struggle against Brisbane and do ok v Dogs

 

[StonesThrow]

46% of us correct. I had two wins from our 3 home games given how much we've improved this year and how we seem to be getting our AO mojo back.

Given that win, you'd be silly not to see we've come a fair way this year. Not sure we'll finish top 8 given the evenness, but we're doing better than I thought.

 

[NSolis]

2-3 definitely not a bad result, especially given the Collingwood loss was only by a point. Only real downside is the poor performances away from home. Next week against Gold Coast away becomes a huge game now - might pretty tough to win I think. If we do win it, we should play finals.

 

[Cuzz09]

you guys still have us twice lol

So should make finals.

Showdown final looms

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[Danger in Texas]

Reckon two out of the last five is par for finals, so we’re tracking well

Still questions on us away from home, but we’ve got time to improve on that, given we’re not realistically premiership contenders this year but on the way up

 

[Cuzz09]

actually your fixture looks quite good.

Win some of the 50/50 ones like v GC, Ess, Port etc and you could push top 4

No great sides this year. Why not?

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[Rotayjay]

I was thinking we'd get two wins out of five, and was not entirely sure which games they would come from. But here we are - two wins. I say that's par.

 

[Cuzz09]

The funny thing is I'm not concerned about playing Collingwood this week as they'll just get the job done v us.

But the week after we have you guys at AO and I reckon you're the type of side in your development that wants to bury sides and score quickly and it could get scary ugly fast.



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[jo172]

Give it a B.

Shame about Collingwood but that’s where we are.

Only the two out grounds were ugly and that happens in years we win 18 games and come top of the ladder

 

[jackster83]

The biggest positive to come from this block of games is that we haven't dropped our heads after a loss.

The Pies game was similar to the St Kilda game last year where we felt we should have won.

Likewise the Bulldogs game was like some of our really bad performances in 2021-22.

The way we've been able to bounce back shows we have actually improved on previous years (119others will be happy to hear me say this).

The next box to tick is to start winning away.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Didn't realise it at the time but Gold Coast away has become as hard or harder than the 5 fixtures that this thread looked at.

A bonus season defining match.

Splitting this block 3-3 will be a good effort.