List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...
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Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

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AsterixTheGaul said:
Interesting how the narrative is on an NBA style lottery for the AFL in picks 1 to 5. Why? To avoid tanking is the answer. Possibly also to garner more interest about the draft as there are only 58 picks this year in the NBA. Meanwhile the NFL make it a big circus act over 3 days and there are over 250 picks so they do not need a lottery.

West Coast are crap - not because we traded away our talent, it is because our older talent fell into LT rehab and we had neglected our depth as we were attempting to chase another flag. Richmond are following suit and will likely be out finals for some years to come.

The Hawks are resting the injured pair of CJ and Wingard. From all reports, CJ has been poor (and the match report stated a leg injury) and The Chad hardly touched it last week. The Hawks injury list is minimal. Meanwhile Breust and a number of decent players are all listed. So it will be up to Mitchell to pull some dodgy moves late in the final quarter to throw the game away. Hell, I think Norf are a bigger threat for pick 1 as they have a huge injury list and look to be in disarray as a club (still). I can see Hawthorn winning a couple more games this year where as I can see us being favourites in round 20 when we host Norf.

Meanwhile I was less than thrilled with the attitude of Harley in his recent interview. If we collect the spoon, I would be keeping an open ear for offers. And I would be asking for picks and gun players from clubs. Example - GWS would need to give us their both R1 picks and Taylor with something later going back to them and Melbourne would need to add both their R1 picks and van Rooyen and a swap of our R2 in 2024 for their R1 in 2024 (sadly this may only be a gap of 2 to 3 picks).


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Sorry, are you saying due to the lottery style NBA draft theres no tanking there?

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ZergMinion said:
I imagine it moves the tanking up the table slightly?
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Pretty much.

E.g. Dallas tanked the final game of the season, and gave up a playoffs spot in a season where they weren’t expected to last long in the playoffs, in order to stay in the draft lottery.
 
Miguel Sanchez said:
Pretty much.

E.g. Dallas tanked the final game of the season, and gave up a playoffs spot in a season where they weren’t expected to last long in the playoffs, in order to stay in the draft lottery.
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Got them pick 10 in the end

NBA Draft Lottery results 2023​



PickTeam
1.Spurs
2.Hornets
3.Trail Blazers
4.Rockets
5.Pistons
6.Magic
7.Pacers
8.Wizards
9.Jazz
10.Mavericks
11.Magic*
12.Thunder
13.Raptors
14.Pelicans

These were the odds for each team getting each pick leading into it
1684468308756.png
 
AsterixTheGaul said:
The Suns I see finishing around the 10 to 12 mark meaning their R1 will be about 7 to 9. To get ahead of the Walter bid, they will need to get to pick 3. That will probably take them pick 7/9 and a future first to get to pick 3 and even then they are a risk of finishing higher up the ladder so I would want a R2 pick as well. Finishing in the 8 next year is how I would value their future 1 - ie around pick 12. Pick 12 and 7/9 is not going to get pick 3 in this draft. They would have to through in their R2 (a pick I see mid to late 20's) and aim for some points back.

The Suns are going to need around 4,100 points (3,300 when discounted by 20%) and they only have around 4,000 points. Take out their R1 pick and they only have 2,500 points. Yes they can go into deficit, but I was led to believe they have more good prospects for 2024 apart from Lombard who is a potential R1 prospect.

Hell, if we get pick 3, I would happily bid on Walters. Time to teach them a lesson with the pick 19 dump to Freo and the pick 7 dump to Cats. They will 100% match an early pick on Walters.

The Suns are trying play it cool and saying they would look at a player and picks for their R1 pick. Great - Pick 21 and Petruccelle for pick 9 thank you very much (I would be prepared to pay some of his salary)!!!! Petch could replace Rankine:D

They will also be constrained in how many picks they take to the draft. They currently have 9 points bearing picks and I very much doubt they will have that many list spots free come November.
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We need to be bold and aggressive with this years 1st and or next years.

Suns 2023 and 2024 1sts for our 2024 1st?

Maybe a player ot pick as sweetener?

Feel the AFL and the pressure building will force some level of fast tracking by bringing picks forward.
 
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A concerning thing for us is our development of players, not many young players we’ve drafted have gotten better

The WAFL is a horrific place for them to develop with our team getting thumped every week and them playing with a bunch of spuds who aren’t even WAFL level

Like Hewett is missing AFL games to do what? Play in an even worse situation in the WAFL?
 
TerryFilk said:
A concerning thing for us is our development of players, not many young players we’ve drafted have gotten better

The WAFL is a horrific place for them to develop with our team getting thumped every week and them playing with a bunch of spuds who aren’t even WAFL level

Like Hewett is missing AFL games to do what? Play in an even worse situation in the WAFL?
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It says put a team in the VFL doesnt it. I cannot see the WAFL situation changing.
 

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ziad said:
It says put a team in the VFL doesnt it. I cannot see the WAFL situation changing.
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How will that help?

The issue is the quality of the top ups and the number of top ups we’ve needed week to week given the seniors all being unavailable. I don’t think that changes much, regardless of the league we’re in.
 
juddy_Like said:
Wouldn’t imagine the top-ups be too keen on a flight east every second week.
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Really?

If you reserves aren’t playing in the WAFL, then you don’t have to follow WAFL rules, so you can sign who ever is willing to play for your reserves.

You’ve got a $110k salary cap just for your top up players. You don’t need more than 10. (sorry forgot about your s&c team and injury list).


It also becomes a tool in your list management.

We have Rayner’s brother and Dunkley’s brother playing in our reserves. They are at every training session. As well as a heap of mature age ex academy players.

Quite a few of our reserves also have “jobs” at Brighton Homes, one of our major sponsors.

You should also be able to play some of your best NGA kids in your team. If you prioritise their development over their WAFL Colts commitments.
 
briztoon said:
Really?

If you reserves aren’t playing in the WAFL, then you don’t have to follow WAFL rules, so you can sign who ever is willing to play for your reserves.

You’ve got a $110k salary cap just for your top up players. You don’t need more than 10. (sorry forgot about your s&c team and injury list).


It also becomes a tool in your list management.

We have Rayner’s brother and Dunkley’s brother playing in our reserves. They are at every training session. As well as a heap of mature age ex academy players.

Quite a few of our reserves also have “jobs” at Brighton Homes, one of our major sponsors.

You should also be able to play some of your best NGA kids in your team. If you prioritise their development over their WAFL Colts commitments.
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The last thing we want is to waste our time developing NGA players out in the open, only for them to all be drafted prior to pick 40.

If we had teh same rules as others, then maybe.
 
bzparkes said:
The last thing we want is to waste our time developing NGA players out in the open, only for them to all be drafted prior to pick 40.

If we had teh same rules as others, then maybe.
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There's been talk from Twomey that will be reassessed at the end of the season, for next season.
 
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