List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[Scodog10]

Bloody hell! Attributing 300 games each to two players who have played 16 combined is a bit silly

I’ve always been fascinated by the numbers relating to footy and games played is evolving rapidly. We’re going to 24 matches as soon as the next EBA kicks in so by the time these guys are all 30 there will have been 300 matches. Players are playing for longer and are more durable because of advances in rehab and prehab. There’s also ridiculous length contracts being thrown around.

Barring career shaping injuries an AA caliber player (which these guys will be) will get to 300 games moving forward pretty easily. I think we’re a generation of players from 400 being the new 300 especially once a wildcard weekend is introduced later this decade. There’s a few right now that look absolute locks to get to 350 in Merrett, Bont, Petracca and Oliver that’ll only get more prevalent over time. Gulden at 22 will be just shy of 100 at the conclusion of 2024 and without finals can be at 290 by the time he’s 30. Essentially any kid coming through that debuts early, holds their spot and can play will get to 300 moving forward.

Edit: came in strong initially so wanted to tone it down

 

[Scodog10]

A long time reader, you once suggested we should trade Darcy Moore for Jaidyn Short. I suspect you like to go fishing from.time to.time.

****ing lol. If I’ve posted that (which I’d be surprised by given how critical I’ve been of KM’s Lukocious trade suggestion of 2017) it’s circa 5 years ago minimum and footy changes every 8 weeks…

For every one like that I’d have a 100 to throw back at you that I was well ahead of the curve on. No fishing here.

 

[Magnanimous]

According to a poster over at Nick's with a history of getting some inside info Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

is one player we have significant interest in and he comes out of contract at the end of 2025.

According to the poster we highly rate his professionalism and desire to drive standards and want to make sure we can fill the void left in this area when Pendlebury has retired.

GC may be playing finals this year and most likely next year.
Not so sure he will want to miss out on the opportunities coming GC way under Hardwick with a young promising team who have come through together.

Be nice though.

from my Delorean

 

[JLC]

Rowell would be a dream but his currency is pretty high.

Maybe how Geelong try and reunite the Geelong Falcons band, we can do the same with Oakleigh Chargers.

 

[Jen2310]

GC may be playing finals this year and most likely next year.
Not so sure he will want to miss out on the opportunities coming GC way under Hardwick with a young promising team who have come through together.

Be nice though.

from my Delorean

Yeah.. if you are playing in GC's best side, there is no way you are leaving now after doing the hard yards.

 

[sr36]

The other question I have is do we really have lots of $$$ compared to the rest of the competition. This is a terrible article, a fluff piece designed to to get the biggest supporter base clicking. It really contains next to no analysis. Despite the claim Glen McFarlane "took a deep dive into the current list structure" he really took a cursory look and made some extravagent claims.

Basically he says Collingwood will have 9 over 30's retire in the next few seasons, he estimates their current combined contracts are $4.5 or even $5M per year so Collingwood have a $5 M warchest. It doesnt work like that. All clubs will have 6, 9, 12 players come off their list in any given season. Its simplistic to add the combined contracts of those players and designate it a warchest. Each list will have differing needs, wants and circumstances. They should be assessed on an individual basis and then if possible compared with where the rest of the competition stands. Neither McFarlane or us punters can do the latter but we can have a go at the former. It should be easy to be a bit more sophisticated than Glenn.

This is how I would see it

1. Over the next 3 seasons all our over 30's will be gone or if say a Crisp hang on he will be on small $s

2. As all these 9 have been significant in the best 23 in 2023/4 they need to be replaced and it's unlikely to only be done by the younger players currently on the list or via the draft.

3. We have low numbers of quality U22s overall but a significant no of younger and middle aged players not currently in the 23 and its likely 50% or more of these will turn over in the same next 3 seasons. These would be Allen, Finn, Reef, Ryan, Richards, HH, Begg, Kreuger, Dean, Markov, Noble, Dean, Steene, Carmy, Bytel, Eyre, Sullivan and Tew. Murphy deserves his own grouping.

4. Being really optimistic and saying 50% of the group from above survive 3 years it leaves 18 departures over the next 3 seasons without taking in any trades or changes in the rest of the list. 6 a year on average.

5. Each year 6 new replacements will need to be found and if you like the warchest argument it will be 6x the contracts of those players we have to spend.

But it needs more consideration. Our difficulty will be turning over our aged stars and finding from trades/FA players who can have an immediate replacement value. 2nd is attention will be given to improving the young part of the list which is weak currently and slightly hamstrung in the next 12 months by limited access to good kids.

I see our list moves as pretty complicated and its probably those in the industry who really have a feel for how to solve it on the run. I am not saying it cant be done but just its an unusual list make up currently so lateral thinking will be involved

We already have two $Million dollar players on our list, Darcy and ND ( ND will be in this time if he isnt already) and Jordy probably around the $800K plus. Our solution is unlikely to be 3 big million dollat FAs like LDU, Allen and Taylor. Maybe 1 similar in the next 3. Be more likely we get more middle ranking trades/FAs as we likely need a few of them.

Looking at possible changes in this off season. Veteran departures say 3 out of Pendles, Sidey, Howe and WHE. Give 3 of the other group say Kreuger, Begg, Carmy. There are likely other changes but if we did that it would free up say $2.2 M in cap space (650, 600, 400, 250, 150,150). So 3 draft picks and say they end up $400K together gives another $1.8 K for 3 players trade or FA. If you get gun at say $1-1.2M that means another 2 players at $6-800K so 2 average type players.

This is speculation of course but I doubt with the replacements we need in the next 3 seasons to our best 22 that we will have a big warchest compared to the rest of the comp.

My take is that we'd be in a strong position to poach. Moore, JDG and Nick locked in on less money than equivalent marquee players. A lot of senior players on the way out. Everyone else who's likely to be around in two years on middling money. Salary dumps about to come off the books.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Why King thinks that Hawthorn may have to think about trading Mitch Lewis

“Do they have to look at trading someone like a Mitch Lewis?”

www.sen.com.au

Absolutely no chance, but Mitch Lewis for our first this year ( I know) would have been tempting

 

[Jen2310]

Why King thinks that Hawthorn may have to think about trading Mitch Lewis

“Do they have to look at trading someone like a Mitch Lewis?”

www.sen.com.au

Absolutely no chance, but Mitch Lewis for our first this year ( I know) would have been tempting

We have a first this year? They may have to enquire freo about that pick.

 

[sr36]

Why King thinks that Hawthorn may have to think about trading Mitch Lewis

“Do they have to look at trading someone like a Mitch Lewis?”

www.sen.com.au

Absolutely no chance, but Mitch Lewis for our first this year ( I know) would have been tempting

Why do so many think that getting rid of your good players is the way to get better. It's not like Lewis is getting you a Harley Reid pick.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Why do so many think that getting rid of your good players is the way to get better. It's not like Lewis is getting you a Harley Reid pick.

Who knows, especially when Lewis is probably a top 10 KPF when he’s going. It’s weird.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks made bad list decisions. Gunston was surprising enough last year.

 

[Eric Shin]

Why do so many think that getting rid of your good players is the way to get better. It's not like Lewis is getting you a Harley Reid pick.

Kingy doesn't make too many rational decisions


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Eric Shin]

Out of this lot, Khamis appeals to me a lot.

I'd also look at what it'd be worth to get Busslinger. I'm not sold that it's back to WA only for him.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Jen2310]

View attachment 1960368

Out of this lot, Khamis appeals to me a lot.

I'd also look at what it'd be worth to get Busslinger. I'm not sold that it's back to WA only for him.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Khamis is playing in their best 22 now. I think our best shot to get him was last year, before he decided to re-sign. Busslinger could be gettable but he is a developing tall.. surely they offer him a contract

 

[swoop42]

If we like what we see could we not guarantee Long a place on our AFL list next season and add him at the end of the season without restriction because of his continuing DFA status?

If he's prepared to wait I assume he has to nominate for the MSD in order for anyone else to draft him.

 

[Jen2310]

If we like what we see could we not guarantee Long a place on our AFL list next season and add him at the end of the season without restriction because of his continuing DFA status?

If he's prepared to wait I assume he has to nominate for the MSD in order for anyone else to draft him.

Yeah, I think given he is forever a DFA, if he doesnt nominate for MSD, we can just pick him up at the end of the year.

 

[swoop42]

Unless they're freaks like a Grundy I feel most ruck prospects take until their 4th year in the system before they can became AFL relevant, start to withstand the strength of mature opponents and rigors of senior football week on week.

How many AFL preseasons now for Steene?

Right now the only concern I have about Steene is that he seems to attract injury to all parts of his body and if it continues his body may not allow him the opportunity to be a VFL footballer let alone AFL one.

This however is also one reason why people shouldn't be to quick to judge as his development continues to be stop start and a source of frustration.

 

[loki04]

Wow I wanted all of them, the goal square gorilla is a rare species indeed.

Most KPP are given 3 to 5 seasons.

Very different from mids timeline.

 

[stormskye]

Unless they're freaks like a Grundy I feel most ruck prospects take until their 4th year in the system before they can became AFL relevant, start to withstand the strength of mature opponents and rigors of senior football week on week.

How many AFL preseasons now for Steene?

Right now the only concern I have about Steene is that he seems to attract injury to all parts of his body and if it continues his body may not allow him the opportunity to be a VFL footballer let alone AFL one.

This however is also one reason why people shouldn't be to quick to judge as his development continues to be stop start and a source of frustration.

A concussion, facial injury (from memory) and what looked like a rolled ankle don’t have me concerned like Krueger (yet).

The 5min he rucked in we won the ruck. That’s all I saw least. Think he has definite traits to make it

 

[sr36]

Right now the only concern I have about Steene is that he seems to attract injury to all parts of his body and if it continues his body may not allow him the opportunity to be a VFL footballer let alone AFL one.

He had a good run last year. A concussion and a rolled ankle isn't anything to be concerned about at this stage.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

How many players on our list could attract at least two first round picks if we put them on the trade table?

If we could get two Firsts for him, I'm coming around to the idea that we should consider trading Crispy, to accelerate our list rebuild.

Where do you get whatever gets you high enough to think that we could get two first round picks for 30 year old Jack Crisp?

30 year olds that aren't AA quality don't go for single 1st round picks, let alone two.

 

[stormskye]

How many players on our list could attract at least two first round picks if we put them on the trade table?

If we could get two Firsts for him, I'm coming around to the idea that we should consider trading Crispy, to accelerate our list rebuild.

Crisp wouldn’t even be worth one first rounder. He’s 31 by end of season. If you want two firsts, you trade Degoey, which would get us nowhere

 

[LuckyLee]

Crisp wouldn’t even be worth one first rounder. He’s 31 by end of season. If you want two firsts, you trade Degoey, which would get us nowhere

Ah, righto, didn't realise he was that old. Should have looked it up before asking a dumb question. Sorry.

Which brings me back to my original question - how many on our list could get us two first rounders? (And would we be prepared to trade any of them?)

We're gonna lose Pendles, Sidey, Mitchell, Howe, Jamie, Hoskin-Elliott, (Murphy), Checkers and Cox over the next two seasons and there seems to be very little coming through our VFL side to replace them. With no first rounder this year, I feel like we need to do something significant on the trade front to accelerate our rebuild, but do we actually have anyone worth trading?

 

[Apex36]

Khamis is playing in their best 22 now. I think our best shot to get him was last year, before he decided to re-sign. Busslinger could be gettable but he is a developing tall.. surely they offer him a contract

Offering him a contract is one thing, him signing it is another. With the Dogs glut of talls it wouldn’t surprise me if he decides it would be best for him to look elsewhere.

 

[sr36]

Offering him a contract is one thing, him signing it is another. With the Dogs glut of talls it wouldn’t surprise me if he decides it would be best for him to look elsewhere.

They've got a weakness in terms of kpd.

 

[Scodog10]

They've got a weakness in terms of kpd.

Otherwise referred to as stubbornness. They have plenty of options, but won’t go anywhere structurally until they bite the bullet on Naughton.