Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[Harris 10]

+ a future 2nd from Richmond with our future 3rd going back their way.

I think this outcome is very realistic as I’ve heard Richmond are very keen on a combination of Smith with Smillie/Langford.

The Freo suite of picks are subject to a bit of change as well depending on ladder positions.

Still not sure I'd pull the trigger, but its the type of a deal I could see all parties coming out winners in.

 

[Chewy Chewman]

I’m trying to think of who best he plays like in the AFL? Probably Nick Daicos without the long kicking and not quite as powerful running.

I would argue Jack Macrae. No doubt he’ll have a solid AFL career but not the type of player you take with a top pick.

 

[giantroo]

Cal expects River to be at North this year, with the new rules, he can be prelisted if he slips through the National Draft.

AFL player movement and list management changes

The AFL Commission has approved changes related to AFL Player Movement and List Management for 2024 and 2025

www.afl.com.au

 

[My Left Foote]

Would you do?
North out 2 - in 7,12
Freo out 7, 12 - in Bolton
Rich in 2 - out Bolton

No. No. No.

 

[ohmygewd]

Would you do?
North out 2 - in 7,12
Freo out 7, 12 - in Bolton
Rich in 2 - out Bolton

Nope.
North out 2 + F2 - in 7,12, 25
Freo out 7, 12, 25 - in Bolton, F2 (Rich).
Rich in 2, F2 (North) - out Bolton, F2.

North have 7, 12, 22, 25 40.
Rich have 1, 2, 21, 33, 39
Freo have Bolton, 17, 61.

 

[noobermensch]

Tom Gross is as brave, tough and hard working as any player in this draft pool. In a year less stacked with top end midfield talent he would be getting a lot more attention, but as it stands he's unfortunately flying well under the radar. Wherever he lands on draft night, he's destined to become an immediate fan favourite and have everyone asking "how did this kid slide so far?"

 

[Hazey1977]

That’s a good point.

Don’t get me wrong, I really rate Trainor but I’m not sure he ends up being a genuine tall defender at AFL level despite his height. A top 6-7 pick for a Jordan Ridley type at this stage of our rebuild isn’t ideal especially when we are crying out for a key forward.

J. Whitlock, Armstrong, Shanahan or Gerreyn are more of a pressing need.

In all likelihood a player like O’Farrell or Mraz will be available at our 2nd, and despite not much fanfare the two of them have a stack of upside.

Just on O’Farrell I know he had a few injury issues this year, but I think he’ll be a gun at AFL level. He is a beautiful kick, strong overhead mark and is a real fiery competitor (not to dissimilar to Dawson). Real natural defender in that Daniel Talia mould.

Daniel? Is that Jenny 's son?

Sent from my SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[My Left Foote]

Take Langford at 3 (presuming Richmond bid on Ashcroft at 1) and round out the midfield perfectly.

Then start trading and FAing for talls.

Will be plenty of talls available at our 2nd pick, must take a developing KPF.

 

[My Left Foote]

Nope.
North out 2 + F2 - in 7,12, 25
Freo out 7, 12, 25 - in Bolton, F2 (Rich).
Rich in 2, F2 (North) - out Bolton, F2.

North have 7, 12, 22, 25 40.
Rich have 1, 2, 21, 33, 39
Freo have Bolton, 17, 25.

We can't both have pick 25.

 

[ohmygewd]

We can't both have pick 25.

ooops!!! fixed

 

[My Left Foote]

Nope.
North out 2 + F2 - in 7,12, 25
Freo out 7, 12, 25 - in Bolton, F2 (Rich).
Rich in 2, F2 (North) - out Bolton, F2.

North have 7, 12, 22, 25 40.
Rich have 1, 2, 21, 33, 39
Freo have Bolton, 17, 61.

I'm very much in the don't trade / split pick 2 camp however if we did I think this is a more realistic trade, not sure I like dropping that far back to pick 7 but it is what it is.

 

[Wild Bill]

Cal has us taking Langford - if his phantom draft in Nov stays the same then you can take it to the bank we are taking Langford.

I think this is a good pick for us - his size and aggression is a stand out. We have too many nice mids - put Langford and Wardlaw in the centre and it will make teams very jumpy.

 

[Sphynx]

Cal has us taking Langford - if his phantom draft in Nov stays the same then you can take it to the bank we are taking Langford.

I think this is a good pick for us - his size and aggression is a stand out. We have too many nice mids - put Langford and Wardlaw in the centre and it will make teams very jumpy.

It's not a phantom draft.

It's his rankings.

He doesn't do his Phantom Draft until after the combine and will adjust the order based on club preferences and rumours.

 

[Wild Bill]

It's not a phantom draft.

It's his rankings.

He doesn't do his Phantom Draft until after the combine and will adjust the order based on club preferences and rumours.

Correct - as above - if his phantom draft in Nov has us taking Langford - its just about a lock.

 

[Sphynx]

Correct - as above - if his phantom draft in Nov has us taking Langford - its just about a lock.

Yeah for sure.

But his rankings change quite a bit based on club preferences and pick ranges.

 

[Moti]

On pick trading, the depth of this draft and lack of clear top end talent means that it will not be easy trading down this year. Value will be lower than recent drafts.

 

[Wild Bill]

Yeah for sure.

But his rankings change quite a bit based on club preferences and pick ranges.

The top 10 draft rankings recently have been really close to actual. Its a really good guide as to what will happen - or very close too.

2023 - Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Curtain Sanders, Caddy Read. Windsor at 7 was the only miss.

2022 - Ashcroft, Wardlaw, Tstats, Sheezel, Cadman, Clark, Humprey, Gibney, McKenzie. These were the top 9 - just slightly out of order. Cadman jumped up due to the go home factors of others.

2021 - Daicos, JHF, Darcy, Callahan, Hobbs, Ward, Gibcus, Rachele, Anderws, Erusmus. Hobbs the one the slid.

 

[Sphynx]

The top 10 draft rankings recently have been really close to actual. Its a really good guide as to what will happen - or very close too.

2023 - Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Curtain Sanders, Caddy Read. Windsor at 7 was the only miss.

2022 - Ashcroft, Wardlaw, Tstats, Sheezel, Cadman, Clark, Humprey, Gibney, McKenzie. These were the top 9 - just slightly out of order. Cadman jumped up due to the go home factors of others.

2021 - Daicos, JHF, Darcy, Callahan, Hobbs, Ward, Gibcus, Rachele, Anderws, Erusmus. Hobbs the one the slid.

Generally because teams do take best available.

This is a pretty even year though with more interchangeable players than I can remember.

There's about 5-6 players whose range could conceivably be 1-7.

 

[The Warlord]

Cal expects River to be at North this year, with the new rules, he can be prelisted if he slips through the National Draft.

View attachment 2078879

AFL player movement and list management changes

The AFL Commission has approved changes related to AFL Player Movement and List Management for 2024 and 2025

www.afl.com.au

River will be in blue and white aye.

 

[The Warlord]

Will be plenty of talls available at our 2nd pick, must take a developing KPF.

Yep, agree. And I'm fine with trading down to get one too.

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

I can see this being a repeat of 2022. A draft bolter key forward being reached for at the very top of the draft. Wouldn't be surprised if you are on the money The Talent Scout and we call out Harry Armstrong's name at pick 2. I definitely think it's more likely than Trainor.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Honestly, WC have holes all across the field. They already have some developing talls and rucks with Archer Reid, Harry Barnett and Jack Williams who has shown a bit.

Plus they already have Waterman & Allen as their focal points. I reckon with their 2nd rounder they’d be looking at a tall defender (O’Farrell/Mraz) or trade it for Grainger-Barass/Busslinger.

I think they need more depth around the flanks at either end of the ground. I reckon if they are moving on Barass for the hawks pick. They’ll look at more flexible mids like Murphy Reid, Bo Allan, Taj Hotton, Tom Gross or Xavier Lindsay.

I'd suspect Grainger-Barass would be part of the Barass trade to go with the Hawks 1st rounder in the teens.

 

[ohmygewd]

I'm very much in the don't trade / split pick 2 camp however if we did I think this is a realistic trade, not sure I like dropping that far back to pick 7 but it is what it is.

Really depends on your pov on whether we go best available and grab another top tier mid and then work them into the midfield mix?
Whilst l'm in the camp of using this draft to fill list needs or draft for needs, we can't hide from the fact that the loss of an A grade talent in TT has hurt our mid rotation plus a 2nd ACL to George also cast doubts if you believe Sausage would'v been the big bodied version of Sheez...do you grab a FOS/Draper/Langford and start them off HBF in their first year and release McKercher in the middle or wing permanently or grab 2 x KPP that gives you the flexibility to play Chom down back or forward and cover at both ends of the ground knowing you also have W.Dawson progressing through?

NGA changes hurt us in terms of grabbing a clever small foward.

Richmond could be the GC of this years draft if they can acquire multiple picks within the top 10.

WCE still don't know if they are refreshing or rebuilding when the whole world knows that 3, 23, 59 is not going to speed up their rebuild, if Barrass leaves you'd think Hawks #11 at a minimum and #28, goes? Jake Waterman, is #6 if Melb want him, #15 if your Geelong as he may not be worth 1st rounder but WCE will push like hell for one? In these scenarios, this leaves WCE with 3, 6 or 15, 11, 23, 27, 59.

All of a sudden our draft is particularly weak unless we have 3-4 players we absolutely want in the 2, 22 & 40 zone with a speculative at 58?

 

[Sphynx]

Really depends on your pov on whether we go best available and grab another top tier mid and then work them into the midfield mix?
Whilst l'm in the camp of using this draft to fill list needs or draft for needs, we can't hide from the fact that the loss of an A grade talent in TT has hurt our mid rotation plus a 2nd ACL to George also cast doubts if you believe Sausage would'v been the big bodied version of Sheez...do you grab a FOS/Draper/Langford and start them off HBF in their first year and release McKercher in the middle or wing permanently or grab 2 x KPP that gives you the flexibility to play Chom down back or forward and cover at both ends of the ground knowing you also have W.Dawson progressing through?

NGA changes hurt us in terms of grabbing a clever small foward.

Richmond could be the GC of this years draft if they can acquire multiple picks within the top 10.

WCE still don't know if they are refreshing or rebuilding when the whole world knows that 3, 23, 59 is not going to speed up their rebuild, if Barrass leaves you'd think Hawks #11 at a minimum and #28, goes? Jake Waterman, is #6 if Melb want him, #15 if your Geelong as he may not be worth 1st rounder but WCE will push like hell for one? In these scenarios, this leaves WCE with 3, 6 or 15, 11, 23, 27, 59.

All of a sudden our draft is particularly weak unless we have 3-4 players we absolutely want in the 2, 22 & 40 zone with a speculative at 58?

One of teams largest issues is converting midfield clearance both around stoppage up the ground and at center bounces into scores and scoring opportunities.

We are 18th in the comp for converting clearance into i50's + scores. Even after the bye we are still 18th in this stat.

We have major defensive issues defending the opposition when they have the ball, but our problem isn't winning the ball.

We are actually in the better few sides at the moment regarding clearance, contested ball, possessions etc.

We don't convert those clearances into inside 50's or scores because we are turning it over or making poor decisions. Our forwards aren't efficient either at winning 1 on 1's and retaining it. This is one of my biggest gripes with Zurhaar, given he is a senior player and it's his role.

Based on that, the priority at the top has to be a midfielder with excellent skills, good decision making and is a score involvement machine = Finn O'Sullivan.

Moving McKercher up the ground will help this immensely also.

If we can move the ball better and get it deeper and generate more scores or i50 stops from clearance, it will stop the ball being turned over and rebounded in poorer positions, which should help mitigate (but not completely solve) some of the really bad defensive stats.

 

[noobermensch]

The second of two strong mid season Talent League games from Harry that elevated his draft stock significantly. He started on fire in the first quarter, taking marks around the ground and hitting the scoreboard with a couple of early goals. In the second half he continued to present well and fly for his marks, but on a number of occasions couldn't quite hang on. He still finished with 4 goals in a what was overall a strong key forward display.