Players who have used their opposite at least 30% of the time this year:
47% Angus Brayshaw
40% Steele Sidebottom
34% Stephen Coniglio
31% Jesse Joyce
30% Ben Stratton
30% Jack Martin
Players with 30+ kicks on their opposite this year who have a positive kick rating:
+9.0% Jake Melksham
+3.1%...
The system doesn't reward uncontested possessions.
10 disposals with +0.5 or better = net +10.5 points
20 disposals within 0.5 either way = net +0.6 points
8 disposals with -0.5 or worse = net -6.8 points
-1.3 for fumbling the ball under no pressure at the top of the arc.
Isolated 1v1 in D50.
Competition averages: 28% Win, 42% Neutral, 30% Loss. Win/Loss is possessions (or spoils leading to teammate possession) to one of the two involved. Third player in, stoppage, etc is neutral, regardless of which team it is.
Swans:
34% Win (2nd to GWS)
38% Neutral (4th...
8/18 teams are top-eight teams (44%)
4/7 fined teams are top-eight teams (57%)
If all teams are as likely as each other to be fined, then the likelihood of random chance meaning all seven teams fined were top-eight teams is essentially 0%.
6+ top-eight teams fined = 1%
5+ top-eight teams fined...
Basic explanation:
Every location on the ground is assessed for value towards the team (likelihood of scoring next) based on what type of possession you win.
Where you win the ball and what you do with it is lined up against those values to calculate the increase/decrease of your team's...
Bulldogs are now (after Round 19) sixth overall for the season for points lost through injury. Over the last three weeks they are fourth behind Fremantle, Gold Coast and Brisbane, so the most affected of those bound for finals.
The injury ladder was based on the average performance of the...
Hard to say because no two disposals or goals are the same. eg. A goal from 50m out is worth about 3.0 points, but a goal from the goal square after an uncontested possession is essentially worth no points because most of the points are given to the player who put you in a position where you...
Mitchell is currently 26th overall - third at Hawthorn behind Rioli and Roughead, though Roughead starts to drop this week. He has been as high as ninth overall and is 33rd on average per game this season, second at Hawthorn (having missed one game). Puopolo is 51st.
Ratings > Supercoach, but Supercoach has the advantage that it can be applied to lower level competition and compared back to 2003 AFL.
Ratings requires X,Y co-ordinates of game events and pressure applied on ball carriers, which only started in 2010 and isn't applied to lower levels...
No, points are unchanged based on result. The only effect of being in a weaker teams is a lack of opportunity (supply from teammates). Two players doing exactly the same thing will get the same points whether their team wins by 100 or loses by 100.
The size of the patch under each individual dot is proportional to the total area of the ground that all combined dots cover. Hombsch's two dots only cover a small area of the wing, while O'Shea's take up two-thirds of the ground.
My advice would be to ignore the heatmap for anything with less...
It's not a prediction, it's just a summary of the possessions that actually happened. Once you add 50 dots to a map of the ground it is near impossible to get any information about the patterns or density of the dots. By putting a kernel density estimate over the top of it, you get areas of high...
40 games over a two-year period.
Based solely on this year's form Hickey is fourth of all ruckmen, third at St Kilda and 41st in the AFL.
Points per game:
19.4 - Nic Naitanui
17.9 - Todd Goldstein
16.9 - Max Gawn
14.8 - Tom Hickey
14.3 - Shane Mumford
12.6 - Tom Nicholls
12.4 - Stefan Martin...
13% - No Clearance (Secondary stoppage or end of quarter)
09% - Clearance by Ruckman
64% - Clearance by starting midfielders
73% - Clearance by starting four
15% - Clearance by player not in the square
13% of clearances by players not in the square are free kicks (2% of all centre bounces).
Sorry for the maths-speak.
normal PDF = probability density function for the normal (gaussian) distribution. Also known as a 'bell-curve'.
C is a constant, which means it's a set number that re-scales the result. It is a number close to 0.01.
No, the weight is not subjective. It is a formula that is calculated live. The inputs to the formula are the time left in the game and the current margin. Nearly 2000 events per game go into ranking points across all players, and every event has a different weight applied.
The exact formula for...
The same formula is applied to every stat across the entire game, not just the final stages. The weight applied to stats is dependent on margin at the time the stat is called and how long there is left.
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