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  1. Champion_Data

    Retired #29: Patrick Ambrose - Officially retired - 11/8

    Has won four, lost two and neutralised 21.
  2. Champion_Data

    2019 Planning Thread

    Champion Data has no input on player prices. We just provide match scores. Talk to newscorp.
  3. Champion_Data

    kicking on both sides

    Right: 68 kicks @ +1.2% Left: 61 kicks @ +1.0%
  4. Champion_Data

    kicking on both sides

    Players who have used their opposite at least 30% of the time this year: 47% Angus Brayshaw 40% Steele Sidebottom 34% Stephen Coniglio 31% Jesse Joyce 30% Ben Stratton 30% Jack Martin Players with 30+ kicks on their opposite this year who have a positive kick rating: +9.0% Jake Melksham +3.1%...
  5. Champion_Data

    Retired # 2: Tom Bellchambers - Knocks Cam Mooney the **** out - 24/5

    Clearance win % based on hitout result: 84% - Hitout to Advantage 37% - Neutral Hitout 18% - Hitout Sharked
  6. Champion_Data

    Round 12 discussion

  7. Champion_Data

    Oppo Camp Non-Essendon Thread XI

    Simplification of definition: Ball given to you = Uncontested Possession You win the ball = Contested Possession
  8. Champion_Data

    Autopsy Freo overrun Essendon

    The system doesn't reward uncontested possessions. 10 disposals with +0.5 or better = net +10.5 points 20 disposals within 0.5 either way = net +0.6 points 8 disposals with -0.5 or worse = net -6.8 points -1.3 for fumbling the ball under no pressure at the top of the arc.
  9. Champion_Data

    Opinion Posts That Don't Deserve a Thread (Random Opinion or Questions)

    Isolated 1v1 in D50. Competition averages: 28% Win, 42% Neutral, 30% Loss. Win/Loss is possessions (or spoils leading to teammate possession) to one of the two involved. Third player in, stoppage, etc is neutral, regardless of which team it is. Swans: 34% Win (2nd to GWS) 38% Neutral (4th...
  10. Champion_Data

    Analysis Champion data rates every club list

    8/18 teams are top-eight teams (44%) 4/7 fined teams are top-eight teams (57%) If all teams are as likely as each other to be fined, then the likelihood of random chance meaning all seven teams fined were top-eight teams is essentially 0%. 6+ top-eight teams fined = 1% 5+ top-eight teams fined...
  11. Champion_Data

    No Oppo Supporters 2016 General AFL Discussion Part 2 (Sydney Posters Only)

    Basic explanation: Every location on the ground is assessed for value towards the team (likelihood of scoring next) based on what type of possession you win. Where you win the ball and what you do with it is lined up against those values to calculate the increase/decrease of your team's...
  12. Champion_Data

    No Oppo Supporters 2016 General AFL Discussion Part 2 (Sydney Posters Only)

    2010 - 6th 2011 - 10th 2012 - 18th 2013 - 7th 2014 - 5th 2015 - 23rd 2016 - 66th
  13. Champion_Data

    Prediction Changes vs North

    Bulldogs are now (after Round 19) sixth overall for the season for points lost through injury. Over the last three weeks they are fourth behind Fremantle, Gold Coast and Brisbane, so the most affected of those bound for finals. The injury ladder was based on the average performance of the...
  14. Champion_Data

    2016 General Discussion / Help

    We don't run the game, we just provide the scores.
  15. Champion_Data

    Toast Welcome to the Temple of Bontempelli, please take off your shoes and pay your respects

    Hard to say because no two disposals or goals are the same. eg. A goal from 50m out is worth about 3.0 points, but a goal from the goal square after an uncontested possession is essentially worth no points because most of the points are given to the player who put you in a position where you...
  16. Champion_Data

    Toast Welcome to the Temple of Bontempelli, please take off your shoes and pay your respects

    Needs 18.2 to overtake Naitanui this week. Averaging 16.7 for the year.
  17. Champion_Data

    Stats questions

    Ground Kick Clanger Kick Clanger Handball Mark on Lead Centre Bounce Hitout
  18. Champion_Data

    All Australian Team 2016

    Mitchell is currently 26th overall - third at Hawthorn behind Rioli and Roughead, though Roughead starts to drop this week. He has been as high as ninth overall and is 33rd on average per game this season, second at Hawthorn (having missed one game). Puopolo is 51st.
  19. Champion_Data

    All Australian Team 2016

    Ratings > Supercoach, but Supercoach has the advantage that it can be applied to lower level competition and compared back to 2003 AFL. Ratings requires X,Y co-ordinates of game events and pressure applied on ball carriers, which only started in 2010 and isn't applied to lower levels...
  20. Champion_Data

    All Australian Team 2016

    No, points are unchanged based on result. The only effect of being in a weaker teams is a lack of opportunity (supply from teammates). Two players doing exactly the same thing will get the same points whether their team wins by 100 or loses by 100.
  21. Champion_Data

    Strategy 2016 Tacs Trailer

    The size of the patch under each individual dot is proportional to the total area of the ground that all combined dots cover. Hombsch's two dots only cover a small area of the wing, while O'Shea's take up two-thirds of the ground. My advice would be to ignore the heatmap for anything with less...
  22. Champion_Data

    All Australian Team 2016

    Zorko 25th for average per game. Selwood 20th Rounds 5-7.
  23. Champion_Data

    Strategy 2016 Tacs Trailer

    It's not a prediction, it's just a summary of the possessions that actually happened. Once you add 50 dots to a map of the ground it is near impossible to get any information about the patterns or density of the dots. By putting a kernel density estimate over the top of it, you get areas of high...
  24. Champion_Data

    Strategy 2016 Tacs Trailer

    Dot = Possession Shading = Density of Possessions (link)
  25. Champion_Data

    Preview St Kilda V North Melbourne Sunday 3:20 Etihad Stadium

    40 games over a two-year period. Based solely on this year's form Hickey is fourth of all ruckmen, third at St Kilda and 41st in the AFL. Points per game: 19.4 - Nic Naitanui 17.9 - Todd Goldstein 16.9 - Max Gawn 14.8 - Tom Hickey 14.3 - Shane Mumford 12.6 - Tom Nicholls 12.4 - Stefan Martin...
  26. Champion_Data

    Review Geelong defeats Gold Coast by 120 points @KP

    13% - No Clearance (Secondary stoppage or end of quarter) 09% - Clearance by Ruckman 64% - Clearance by starting midfielders 73% - Clearance by starting four 15% - Clearance by player not in the square 13% of clearances by players not in the square are free kicks (2% of all centre bounces).
  27. Champion_Data

    Do we have a game plan? Jury out!

    16.13 from outside 50 this season. Next most is West Coast at 12.13. Excluding set shots 11.8, West Coast again second at 8.5.
  28. Champion_Data

    Round 3 trades

    Sorry for the maths-speak. normal PDF = probability density function for the normal (gaussian) distribution. Also known as a 'bell-curve'. C is a constant, which means it's a set number that re-scales the result. It is a number close to 0.01.
  29. Champion_Data

    Round 3 trades

    No, the weight is not subjective. It is a formula that is calculated live. The inputs to the formula are the time left in the game and the current margin. Nearly 2000 events per game go into ranking points across all players, and every event has a different weight applied. The exact formula for...
  30. Champion_Data

    Round 3 trades

    The same formula is applied to every stat across the entire game, not just the final stages. The weight applied to stats is dependent on margin at the time the stat is called and how long there is left.
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