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Finally I see some decent value this round. Gold Coast +14.5, Hawthorn +9.5 and Essendon -16.5. Lean on West Coast at the line.

Surprisingly not seeing a lot of value in this first round of AFL.

What are the normal limits on these markets?

Anyone have any idea on the limits on AFL/NRL with Pointsbet H2H bets. Their season promos with no limit are insane...

No Ablett makes this trickier.

I have observed this phenomenon in NBA (about 75-80% line covered after a coach is sacked) so I assume something similar in AFL? Though coaches are probably not sacked as often as coaches in the NBA so I'm not sure I'll find any meaningful data on this.

Massive boost for the Dees, they struggle mightly defending the big boys.

Reckon Crouch has only been in hotter form since most teams have been trying to tag Sloane though?

You were touting a winning record of 14 of 18 on 1.20 odds? How is that winning? Also none of my posts are advice just my thoughts. I lost both of those bets, big whoop?

There are different ways to get red-flagged. Smash some proper AFL lines week in, week out might get you red-flagged after 10k of profits. Smash a mistake line, might get you flagged after 1k. Purely just arbing on your account will get you flagged even if you don't make a single $.

If you are a winning bettor it may come down to you being ID banned from all TAB. Large bets are real and agree with Rocky Straight that probably from large losing whales. Also a few of the advertised bets will be right before games where bookies are happy to larger amounts anyway.

It has nothing to do with being able to model AFL better, it's about having the capital and access to AUS accounts whether it be through bowlers or what not. Being offshore and funding AUS bowler accounts is probably something best not dealt with. Also the market prior to game day is obviously...

History repeats itself with the Freo line. 34.5 after Freo's loss to Hawthorn, but in to 30.5 after GWS's loss and Toby suspension, now back out to 40.5. This might finally be the week they cover the handicap though.

Oh noes, the bookies must be real idiots to consistently price these totals incorrectly :rolleyes: o1.5 pays like 1.17-1.20 on every game dude. Oh look at me I hit something 14 out of 18 times where the bookie thinks it'll hit 16 out of 20 times. Gosh I must be such an expert.

It's hard for anyone offshore to get decent size into AFL markets. The only outlet they have is Pinnacle (and brokers) to get decent size done and maybe a couple of the Asian books. This means it's very difficult for them to keep our AFL lines tight, only Aussie residents can really influence...

Fact of the matter is that AFL lines are very soft. Probably due to the amount of mug punters in this country and overseas guys finding it very hard to get set in our markets. Also the lines aren't very wrong. AFL as a sport has huge variance due to 6 & 1pt scores unlike any other sport in the...

Wrong, line closed at +4.5 already by the morning of Friday. Action was both ways agreed but it hit -4.5 at one stage on Pinnacle. Gary Ablett might be worth 6pts but Sam Mitchell sure as hell isn't. Other line move was Hawthorn from evens to -4.5. It's been 3-4 straight weeks where the line...

They didn't. It started out +9.5 before sharps moved it to -2.5.

Melbourne -14.5 against North Melbourne not sure why that line is so low. Port -26.5 to a team outside the top 8? Bet all your houses yo!

Exactly, that game was easy as pie to read after the first quarter.

Last night Dogs vs Suns was also good for a live bet with the wind favouring one side over the other. Dogs -23.5 up 14, was a gimme at the start of the 4th.

Collingwood were paying $15 at the end of the 3rd and $25 after the 50m free at the beginning of the 4th. SCENES!

Sharp money is on Collingwood even before the Mitchell out, Collingwood should be favs in their eyes. I'm not sure how much Mitchell is worth though now that he's out. I wouldn't be surprised to see this close -4.5 or more.

Big line move on Magpies - Eagles: 9.5 ---> -1.5

Slight chance but nothing major, would be a totally different story if this was played at Metricon (even without Ablett).

As a Dogs supporter, watching us is painful. We can't score tries for shit and struggled to put any past even the Knights :drunk:

Yes, larger punters with bowlers are redirecting their funds from other bookies to SB or bet365. They don't necessarily have the best odds but you would take 2.10 and the payout offer over 2.12 that Ubet etc. is offering + no limit on the offers.

No they do not advertise "we'll pay out straight away". It's clear that the payment will come within 15-30 minutes after getting the lead. Also I'm not sure they are advertising 23pts either. They are advertising 24 but quietly offering NSW 23.

TIO shouldn't be considered home. Melbourne are significantly worse at TIO.