🔫🚅🗽 AFLW's Most Valuable Players, 5th Edition

[The Nostradamus]

2024 version to come?

 

[Teen Wolf]

I drafted a 2024 version at the start of the year but decided to not develop and publish it because the concept felt stale to me:


I guess a few things of interest stand out there. But among the Supreme category, it's mostly just Goldsworthy at number 3, after not having her on the list at all for 2023. Gone full circle, as I'm now back to harbouring major concerns about her discipline and work ethic.

The only interesting thing I recall writing: floating a theory that Charlotte Mullins might've been mixed up at birth with Jason Akermanis' daughter, also named Charlotte.

Maybe I'll do a new one at the start of 2025, but there might not be the same motivation provided by the Sarah Blacks etc. The thrill has gone from pointing out Charlie Rowbottom is much better than Mimi Hill, for instance.

 

[Callipygian]

Kudos for doing this. I'd be more tempted to contribute more if I knew more. I mostly only know about my own team.

You are ambitious trying to balance potential v achievements. It's a tough ask. Also there seems to be some slippage between the thread title ('MVP') and the explanation which is about who you would draft if you wanted to form a team now. (Even in that explanation, is it the team you want to win the flag this season or is the team you want to be able to compete for years to come?) Overall I feel like youth and potential (which may never be realised) is weighted too heavily, although this makes more sense if you are drafting to contend for years to come.

Seeing the first three names be Charlie Rowbottom, Ella Roberts and Zarlie Goldsworthy is jolting. None of them would be in contention for MVP. They are elite players but the only thing that gets them in the conversation for the top draft picks across the whole league is their age and potential to have long, elite careers. Similarly (using my own team as an example), to rank Montana Ham ahead of Laura Gardiner is based wholly on her potential - her ceiling may be higher but she doesn't have the runs on the board and she may never surpass Laura Gardiner, who is a very fine player. In this case age doesn't play that much of a role because they are both young (b. 2002 v b. 2004).

Anyway, it is certainly interesting to read and I'm glad for your table and contributions.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Even in that explanation, is it the team you want to win the flag this season or is the team you want to be able to compete for years to come?

The players that would provide the best chance at winning the most flags.

Similarly (using my own team as an example), to rank Montana Ham ahead of Laura Gardiner is based wholly on her potential - her ceiling may be higher but she doesn't have the runs on the board and she may never surpass Laura Gardiner, who is a very fine player.

Gardiner is a very good accumulator... and an otherwise highly flawed player about whom opposition coaches aren't particularly bothered.

Having Ham above her isn't just about potential. Right here, right now: She has better skills, plays in a wider variety of positions, and is more aggressive with ball in hand.

 

[CURVE]

I still don't understand Jasmine Garner at 13, she may be in the second half of her career but there isn't a team in the league that wouldn't trade their first two picks and best player to get her into their squad. She is the best player in the game at the moment and such a unique talent, she was the only player to average a goal and 15+ disposals a game in 2024 (she averaged just under 27dpg), and despite being 30 she has at least another 5 years left in her.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I still don't understand Jasmine Garner at 13, she may be in the second half of her career but there isn't a team in the league that wouldn't trade their first two picks and best player to get her into their squad. She is the best player in the game at the moment and such a unique talent, she was the only player to average a goal and 15+ disposals a game in 2024 (she averaged just under 27dpg), and despite being 30 she has at least another 5 years left in her.

On the balance of probabilities, 5 years from now:

Garner will be 35yo and won't be averaging 25 disposals + a goal. Ella Roberts will be 25yo and will be averaging 25 disposals + a goal.

West Coast would be insane to make that trade.