🔫🚅🗽 AFLW's Most Valuable Players, 5th Edition

[The Nostradamus]

2024 version to come?

 

[Teen Wolf]

I drafted a 2024 version at the start of the year but decided to not develop and publish it because the concept felt stale to me:


I guess a few things of interest stand out there. But among the Supreme category, it's mostly just Goldsworthy at number 3, after not having her on the list at all for 2023. Gone full circle, as I'm now back to harbouring major concerns about her discipline and work ethic.

The only interesting thing I recall writing: floating a theory that Charlotte Mullins might've been mixed up at birth with Jason Akermanis' daughter, also named Charlotte.

Maybe I'll do a new one at the start of 2025, but there might not be the same motivation provided by the Sarah Blacks etc. The thrill has gone from pointing out Charlie Rowbottom is much better than Mimi Hill, for instance.

 

[Callipygian]

Kudos for doing this. I'd be more tempted to contribute more if I knew more. I mostly only know about my own team.

You are ambitious trying to balance potential v achievements. It's a tough ask. Also there seems to be some slippage between the thread title ('MVP') and the explanation which is about who you would draft if you wanted to form a team now. (Even in that explanation, is it the team you want to win the flag this season or is the team you want to be able to compete for years to come?) Overall I feel like youth and potential (which may never be realised) is weighted too heavily, although this makes more sense if you are drafting to contend for years to come.

Seeing the first three names be Charlie Rowbottom, Ella Roberts and Zarlie Goldsworthy is jolting. None of them would be in contention for MVP. They are elite players but the only thing that gets them in the conversation for the top draft picks across the whole league is their age and potential to have long, elite careers. Similarly (using my own team as an example), to rank Montana Ham ahead of Laura Gardiner is based wholly on her potential - her ceiling may be higher but she doesn't have the runs on the board and she may never surpass Laura Gardiner, who is a very fine player. In this case age doesn't play that much of a role because they are both young (b. 2002 v b. 2004).

Anyway, it is certainly interesting to read and I'm glad for your table and contributions.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Even in that explanation, is it the team you want to win the flag this season or is the team you want to be able to compete for years to come?

The players that would provide the best chance at winning the most flags.

Similarly (using my own team as an example), to rank Montana Ham ahead of Laura Gardiner is based wholly on her potential - her ceiling may be higher but she doesn't have the runs on the board and she may never surpass Laura Gardiner, who is a very fine player.

Gardiner is a very good accumulator... and an otherwise highly flawed player about whom opposition coaches aren't particularly bothered.

Having Ham above her isn't just about potential. Right here, right now: She has better skills, plays in a wider variety of positions, and is more aggressive with ball in hand.

 

[CURVE]

I still don't understand Jasmine Garner at 13, she may be in the second half of her career but there isn't a team in the league that wouldn't trade their first two picks and best player to get her into their squad. She is the best player in the game at the moment and such a unique talent, she was the only player to average a goal and 15+ disposals a game in 2024 (she averaged just under 27dpg), and despite being 30 she has at least another 5 years left in her.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I still don't understand Jasmine Garner at 13, she may be in the second half of her career but there isn't a team in the league that wouldn't trade their first two picks and best player to get her into their squad. She is the best player in the game at the moment and such a unique talent, she was the only player to average a goal and 15+ disposals a game in 2024 (she averaged just under 27dpg), and despite being 30 she has at least another 5 years left in her.

On the balance of probabilities, 5 years from now:

Garner will be 35yo and won't be averaging 25 disposals + a goal. Ella Roberts will be 25yo and will be averaging 25 disposals + a goal.

West Coast would be insane to make that trade.

 

[Liam Boy]

I drafted a 2024 version at the start of the year but decided to not develop and publish it because the concept felt stale to me:
View attachment 2186105

I guess a few things of interest stand out there. But among the Supreme category, it's mostly just Goldsworthy at number 3, after not having her on the list at all for 2023. Gone full circle, as I'm now back to harbouring major concerns about her discipline and work ethic.

The only interesting thing I recall writing: floating a theory that Charlotte Mullins might've been mixed up at birth with Jason Akermanis' daughter, also named Charlotte.

Maybe I'll do a new one at the start of 2025, but there might not be the same motivation provided by the Sarah Blacks etc. The thrill has gone from pointing out Charlie Rowbottom is much better than Mimi Hill, for instance.

Erika O'Shea? What's the reasoning behind that? In her age bracket alone I'd have several ahead of her from North (Alice O'Loughlin, Bella Eddey, Tess Craven, Taylah Gatt, maybe also Amy Smith just off the top of my head) but you've got her as our 7th most valuable player? I thought she was good but not great last year. Definitely feel that as well as the ones I just listed Vikki Wall, Jasmine Ferguson, Kim Rennie and probably Libby Birch (maybe not if you're weighting it based on age) would be ahead of her too. Curious what the thinking is here.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Erika O'Shea? What's the reasoning behind that? In her age bracket alone I'd have several ahead of her from North (Alice O'Loughlin, Bella Eddey, Tess Craven, Taylah Gatt, maybe also Amy Smith just off the top of my head) but you've got her as our 7th most valuable player? I thought she was good but not great last year. Definitely feel that as well as the ones I just listed Vikki Wall, Jasmine Ferguson, Kim Rennie and probably Libby Birch (maybe not if you're weighting it based on age) would be ahead of her too. Curious what the thinking is here.

Well it's easy now to forget about all the important matches North Melbourne blew because the backline was too slow and unfit, given that it doesn't happen anymore largely thanks to the addition of O'Shea.

Collingwood and Fremantle were constantly turning these opportunities into goal when they were knocking NM out of finals in 2021-2022:


Wasn't just those two teams running rings around our sluggish defenders either:


She also doesn't panic with ball in hand (unlike Amy Smith), is more versatile than Taylah Gatt and Tess Craven, and isn't being carried by teammates around her (if anything she stepped up when Kearney was injured).

I would move Alice O'Loughlin somewhere into the 20s or 30s now that she has started capitalising on the supply that few forwards in the competition have ever enjoyed, though it is nevertheless not clear how well she or Bella Eddey would perform without the grunt work provided by Vikki Wall who imo completely changes the functionality of North's front half.

But without a clear commitment from Wall, in terms of where AFLW is prioritised vs rugby, it's just blind guesswork to assign her a valuation.

 

[Liam Boy]

That was quite a while ago now in footy terms and she's not the only thing that's changed, I think what's made the biggest change back there is Jasmine Ferguson and Libby Birch giving us greater aerial dominance so the ball ends up spilling from the pack in ways that favour us more. You could say Erika doesn't panic but she absolutely does turn it over because she's not the best kick, being relatively new to the game. I'm not sure how you can say she's more versatile than Tess Craven, who played in all 3 sections of the ground this year to great effect, while Erika only really plays as a rebounding HBF.

Just thought it was an odd choice to single her out among a really good team, that's all. Ruby Tripodi is another one I should've mentioned, she's a little bit older but she'd be one that other teams would be looking to shake loose in coming seasons I reckon, along with Mia King.

 

[Teen Wolf]

That was quite a while ago now in footy terms and she's not the only thing that's changed, I think what's made the biggest change back there is Jasmine Ferguson and Libby Birch giving us greater aerial dominance so the ball ends up spilling from the pack in ways that favour us more.

Jasmine Ferguson was already there when North's backline was being embarrassed in finals. Libby Birch joined in 2024.

The transformative period took place across 2022 S7 and 2023, i.e. O'Shea's first two seasons / the two most recent seasons at the time I assigned those rankings in post #27.

Considering the only match NM didn't win in 2024 was a game O'Shea missed, time has shown I'm guilty of underrating her, if anything.

You could say Erika doesn't panic but she absolutely does turn it over because she's not the best kick, being relatively new to the game.

That would be a description more fitting of her predecessor in Gilroy, who never looks before kicking. Clear difference in quality of ball use by O'Shea, who is already solid by foot despite a lack of experience, so the trajectory is extremely encouraging.

I'm not sure how you can say she's more versatile than Tess Craven, who played in all 3 sections of the ground this year to great effect, while Erika only really plays as a rebounding HBF.

Craven did not play in different positions to great effect. They were trying to find her a spot where her lack of pace and size wouldn't hurt the team. O'Shea's contest work is stronger in addition to being a damaging linebreaker = more versatile.