Player Watch #13 Clayton Oliver – UNPRECEDENTED 4 x B&F, 3 x AA, 2 x AFLCA Winner and Premiership Player

[A11dAtP0w3R]

If Oliver was to move pick 1 (Harley Reid) to the Dees would have to be in the discussion however that's achievable IMO?

Get the sense thats the plan.

 

[Bluelegs]

Get the sense thats the plan.

Handy that they have the same manager, we met with him a couple of weeks ago. If that is the play then we would have already been deep in discussions with West Coast about what they would need as well as the clubs holding the picks to get it done which would likely be North.

Would feel a lot better about it if we have a clear plan than if we're just casting a line.

 

[Bald]

Would 3 and 10 hypothetically be enough?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Would 3 and 10 hypothetically be enough?

Yeah I think that's about as good as we could hope for.

 

[Bald]

Yeah I think that's about as good as we could hope for.

Bailey Smith noise isn’t going anywhere and everyone’s favourite Sam Maclure has said they’re willing to offer up 3.

The unfortunate thing is 3 and 10 will likely push out to 5 and 12..

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Bailey Smith noise isn’t going anywhere and everyone’s favourite Sam Maclure has said they’re willing to offer up 3.

The unfortunate thing is 3 and 10 will likely push out to 5 and 12..

If you get 3 for Smith that's daylight robbery. I might have to change my stance on how much I think Oliver is worth.

 

[Scythe94]

I think the fact that we're at midday and there's still crickets from the club indicates that there's at least an element of truth to all this.

 

[Bald]

If you get 3 for Smith that's daylight robbery. I might have to change my stance on how much I think Oliver is worth.

I think it’s an unreasonable amount to expect for him. Personally I’d value him at around 7-8 in this draft (as in, just after the real qualify drops off).

Edit: Bailey that is - Oliver is worth pick 1 in a straight swap IMO, though I’m not privy to any issues.

 

[Bluelegs]

Bailey Smith noise isn’t going anywhere and everyone’s favourite Sam Maclure has said they’re willing to offer up 3.

The unfortunate thing is 3 and 10 will likely push out to 5 and 12..

Pick 5 wouldn't bother me so much when one of Duursma, Mckercher or Curtin will still be on the table.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I think it’s an unreasonable amount to expect for him. Personally I’d value him at around 7-8 in this draft (as in, just after the real qualify drops off).

Edit: Bailey that is - Oliver is worth pick 1 in a straight swap IMO, though I’m not privy to any issues.

Agree. About the value id have on him too 7-10 range.

 

[Jamurp]

Clarry leaving chat is gross, don’t care about draft picks, he’s a Melbourne player.

 

[Bluelegs]

I think the fact that we're at midday and there's still crickets from the club indicates that there's at least an element of truth to all this.

If I'm the club I would have put out a statement (prepared well in advance) that the club is open to all trade offers when it comes to improving our list. Followed by a statement of complete support for Oliver and how much he means to the club.

Pretty crap they've just allowed the rumour mill to go off unfettered for 24 hours regardless of what is happening internally.

 

[thecuzsays]

How is it possible for this to be having so much traction without it being true and then wtf is wrong with our club?

 

[Dory_77]

If I'm the club I would have put out a statement (prepared well in advance) that the club is open to all trade offers when it comes to improving our list. Followed by a statement of complete support for Oliver and how much he means to the club.

Pretty crap they've just allowed the rumour mill to go off unfettered for 24 hours regardless of what is happening internally.

This would be the sensible approach.
Saying nothing has let things go haywire and doesn't help either way (if we do want a trade it could make it harder to get value; if he stays does he feel supported?)

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Clarry leaving chat is gross, don’t care about draft picks, he’s a Melbourne player.

You should care about draft picks, if it wasn't for draft picks Oliver wouldn't be a Melbourne player.

 

[dazzledavey36]

Would 3 and 10 hypothetically be enough?

I'd take that.

We then trade 3 and 5 to West Coast for pick 1 and still keep pick 10 and our 13.

 

[Topkent]

How is it possible for this to be having so much traction without it being true and then wtf is wrong with our club?

This would be the best thing we've done for a while if we can move Oliver out to improve our list. Blindly supporting the same failures over and over doesn't improve shit.

 

[Bob Neil]

Pardon the intrusion but I reckon Oliver at this stage is 'only' worth a pick between 6-10.

I say that knowing he's a bonafide gun who's the quality of player you dream of getting from a pick 1-3 at the draft...but he's 26 so has probably 5-7 seasons left (I don't see a Pendlebury-like mid 30s career in his future) so any buyer will probably get 100-150 games out of him at best (assuming no major injuries).

Also at this stage I think a 7 contract at (say) $1m/year is a net detractor from his value assuming any new club would need to take on the entirety of that. If he had 3x$1m left on a contract it'd be a completely different equation but I think the Dees have overcapitalised on that deal.

Finally from the 'where there's smoke there's fire' files I think the facts of this season plus now the associated rumours also knock a bit off his value.

If I was the Dees and I could effectively swap out Oliver and get Reid then I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

[Topkent]

Pardon the intrusion but I reckon Oliver at this stage is 'only' worth a pick between 6-10.

I say that knowing he's a bonafide gun who's the quality of player you dream of getting from a pick 1-3 at the draft...but he's 26 so has probably 5-7 seasons left (I don't see a Pendlebury-like mid 30s career in his future) so any buyer will probably get 100-150 games out of him at best (assuming no major injuries).

Also at this stage I think a 7 contract at (say) $1m/year is a net detractor from his value assuming any new club would need to take on the entirety of that. If he had 3x$1m left on a contract it'd be a completely different equation but I think the Dees have overcapitalised on that deal.

Finally from the 'where there's smoke there's fire' files I think the facts of this season plus now the associated rumours also knock a bit off his value.

If I was the Dees and I could effectively swap out Oliver and get Reid then I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Mate that one of the biggest loads of rubbish I ever read. I'm not Oliver's biggest fan but you're out of your mind if you think he's worth a single pick between 7-10

 

[TheBoss]

I think the fact that we're at midday and there's still crickets from the club indicates that there's at least an element of truth to all this.

Club has form for swiftly moving on players with substance/alcohol issues, see Watts and Hogan.

...but we also brought in May, Bennell and Hunter so who the hell knows!

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Mate that one of the biggest loads of rubbish I ever read. I'm not Oliver's biggest fan but you're out of your mind if you think he's worth a single pick between 7-10

Yeah if we traded him for a single pick between 7 and 10 I'm fine with everyone melting.

 

[Topkent]

Yeah if we traded him for a single pick between 7 and 10 I'm fine with everyone melting.

I'd rather him smoke the glass bbq on the bench as sub than give him away for that pick lol

 

[BaliDemon]

You should care about draft picks, if it wasn't for draft picks Oliver wouldn't be a Melbourne player.

Either would Jimmy Toumpas, Sam Weideman or Cale Morton.

 

[Bob Neil]

Mate that one of the biggest loads of rubbish I ever read. I'm not Oliver's biggest fan but you're out of your mind if you think he's worth a single pick between 7-10

All good - welcome to your opinion of course and I'm not trying to be antagonistic on your board. But I'd simply ask which part of my logic do you disagree with?
The plus is his undeniable quality and then the minuses (IMHO) are his age, contract status, recent injuries/history/estrangement from the club. On balance I think he's worth 6-10. What do you think he's worth?

 

[Bluelegs]

All good - welcome to your opinion of course and I'm not trying to be antagonistic on your board. But I'd simply ask which part of my logic do you disagree with?
The plus is his undeniable quality and then the minuses (IMHO) are his age, contract status, recent injuries/history/estrangement from the club. On balance I think he's worth 6-10. What do you think he's worth?

Think of it this way. What are the odds we get as much out of whoever we get from a 6-10 pick than the rest of Oliver's career?