Draft Review 2008 - Re-do the 2008 draft

[Tragic sainter]

Name another player from the 2008 draft who is closer to being the captain of his club.

You've stuffed this up quite a bit here haven't you?

 

[Nomad12]

Natanui
Hannebery
Beams
Sidebottom
Sloane
Motlop
Ziebell
Zaharakis
Rich
Redden


could easily of put in-
Ballantyne
Walters
Shuey
Trengove
Hurley
Hill


first time ive done that and bloody hard to split lotta good players

 

[AlibiMonday]

not to sound rude or anything but why is everyone over rating Motlop? He played had a handful of good games this year and the previous years he was crap. I'd have Redden clearly ahead of him who has been performing well for 3 years straight.

Unfortunately, most people find it difficult to make a clear distinction between last week's/month's/year's performances and the body of output other players have already contributed. This was the whole reason I put together this table/chart, to illustrate that people's judgement has an overwhelming bias to recent form.

Motlop is a perfect example of this. He's hasn't even cracked the top 30 for total output yet, but some are comfortably placing him inside the top 10. This crop of players only have 7-10 seasons left, yet 5 have already been accrued. That means 30-40% of there career has already been achieved. So for Motlop to break into the Top 10, he would need to have 50% greater game impact in his remaining years than the current Top 10 average. It would be very difficult to achieve. His 2013 (ranked 7th) indicates he's a chance, but he's starting from a long way back.

 

[KissKiss]

Sidebottom had a much better year than I thought. For some reason I felt that he was a bit down this year

 

[tazhawk]

Ahhhhh 2008.

I have nothing to add to the draft discussion I just wanted to say 2008.

 

[Mister E]

AlibiMonday That is one of the most objective posts i've seen in the draft section of BF. Well played

I do have a question though, what do the numbers on the horizontal axis represent ?

 

[Daz]

Looks to me as if it's based on total DT/SC points for a season. It's a pretty poor indicator, particularly because it punishes players who have had injuries or taken a while to develop.

 

[AlibiMonday]

It's a pretty poor indicator, particularly because it punishes players who have had injuries or taken a while to develop.

This is why this thread exists; to re-evaluate the available pool based on better market information. It should 'punish' or devalue players who are either injury prone (Ziebell was more unlucky though with two leg breaks), late developers, undisciplined players etc. That's the whole foundation of the debate.

After 5 years, the debate is slowly migrating from who has the most potential, to who's had the best career influence.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Unfortunately, most people find it difficult to make a clear distinction between last week's/month's/year's performances and the body of output other players have already contributed. This was the whole reason I put together this table/chart, to illustrate that people's judgement has an overwhelming bias to recent form.

Motlop is a perfect example of this. He's hasn't even cracked the top 30 for total output yet, but some are comfortably placing him inside the top 10. This crop of players only have 7-10 seasons left, yet 5 have already been accrued. That means 30-40% of there career has already been achieved. So for Motlop to break into the Top 10, he would need to have 50% greater game impact in his remaining years than the current Top 10 average. It would be very difficult to achieve. His 2013 (ranked 7th) indicates he's a chance, but he's starting from a long way back.

There's no doubt in total output so far Motlop hasn't done as much as some others but I don't think it's fair to just go purely on total output as you've defined it to judge a player. So many things go in to determining "total output" that aren't necessarily about whether they're a better player. Using total output clearly favours those who develop early and those who play for poorer teams so that they get more games early in their career.

I'd say Motlop's 2013 was worth more due to performances in important games than Picken or Nahas' total output so far yet they're rated higher to this point. I think most people would prefer a very good player for 5 years than an ok player in a poor side for a longer time, which is what Picken and Nahas have been for the most part.

The career output graph is an interesting concept and I'm not saying Motlop should be rated higher than most of those players near the top. I think depending on need he should be rated somewhere between 5 (that's probably generous) and 20. But if I was given the choice between Robinson, who's rated very highly on the output graph, and Motlop, who's not, I'd take Motlop in a heartbeat and I reckon most others would too.

 

[Big Fresh]

When it says that Vickery had a better 2013 than Walters, even if he did miss a few games, I can't take it very seriously.

 

[Mister E]

You can see why Freo improved, 6 players from the 08 draft on that 2013 list

 

[swansfan51]

Only one of these players was All-Australian in 2013, and he's 4th on the 2013 performance list.

 

[Wild Bill]

Only one of these players was All-Australian in 2013, and he's 4th on the 2013 performance list.

What are you saying? The list is wrong or there is a Sydney bias when handing out AA spots?

 

[SydneyPhilly]

What are you saying? The list is wrong or there is a Sydney bias when handing out AA spots?

I think you know which, stop trying to stir the pot

 

[the distributer]

When it says that Vickery had a better 2013 than Walters, even if he did miss a few games, I can't take it very seriously.

It means next to nothing, look at Rockliff, if he played for Collingwood he'd be At best a 4th-5th string mid, he wouldn't get anywhere near the amount of midfeild time hence lowering his SC-DT points ( not saying he isn't a very good player, just using him as an example), defenders also get the short straw using this formula, the formula favours mids.

 

[AlibiMonday]

I'd say Motlop's 2013 was worth more due to performances in important games than Picken or Nahas' total output so far yet they're rated higher to this point. I think most people would prefer a very good player for 5 years than an ok player in a poor side for a longer time, which is what Picken and Nahas have been for the most part.

Well that's arguable. But I completely agree that Motlop will brush away most those players by the end if his career. Motlop's 2013 definely demonstrates that he's going to rate highly by the end of his career. The message here was that it's going to be difficult, but not impossible, for him to end up being rated a Top 10 player.

When the draft order is originally selected, the recruiters are crudely trying to assess where each players will rank by the end of the career. This is also what I'm assuming everyone else does when the try to re-order the draft - it's largely still based on potential. This chart simply helps to track the accuracy of that based on performance to date.

 

[SizeMatters]

Rockliff averaged `100 this year playing pretty much 75% mid 25% forward for total game minutes this year... When he was playing full time mid he got something like 19 Brownlow votes in 8 games and was averaging huge numbers well over 120 in DT. He was averaging more than any other full time mid in the game...

 

[Donakebab]

It means next to nothing, look at Rockliff, if he played for Collingwood he'd be At best a 4th-5th string mid, he wouldn't get anywhere near the amount of midfeild time hence lowering his SC-DT points ( not saying he isn't a very good player, just using him as an example), defenders also get the short straw using this formula, the formula favours mids.

If Rockliff played at Collingwood he would have been behind only Pendlebury and Swan. In fact with that kind of support it wouldn't have been surprising for him to have a year like Beams did last year.

 

[Bender571]

You can see why Freo improved, 6 players from the 08 draft on that 2013 list

7 by my count

 

[AlibiMonday]

When it says that Vickery had a better 2013 than Walters, even if he did miss a few games, I can't take it very seriously.

There are some minor adjustments in the data that benefits KPPs over smaller players (this is to compensate their structural role and late development). There's fairly little separating Vickery and Walters' year.

 

[AlibiMonday]

Only one of these players was All-Australian in 2013, and he's 4th on the 2013 performance list.

As mentioned previously, Hannebery had an horrendous drop in form over the back half of 2013. 80% of that value was accumulated in the front half if the year - which gives you an indication of just how hot he was running. If can string it together for a full year consistently, he'll end up as a Top 3 selection.

In hindsight, you could argue he was a tad lucky getting an AA when considering his back half. There's nothing wrong with that view.

 

[SizeMatters]

Just goes to wonder how the hell did Hannebery get it and Rockliff wasn't even considered... Rocky had probably the best stretch of elite games than anybody in the comp (polling 19 Brownlow votes in 8 games) yet not even a whisper of a AA chance...and that was the final half of the year when it was still fresh in peoples minds...

 

[Silent Alarm]

Jack Ziebell – Melbourne
Dan Hannerbury – West Coast
Dayne Beams – Fremantle
Rory Sloane – Port Adelaide
Hayden Ballantyne – Essendon
David Zaharakis – Carlton
Liam Shiels – Brisbane
Daniel Rich – Richmond
Steele Sidebottom – North Melbourne
Nic Naitanui – Adelaide
Stephen Hill – Collingwood
Mitch Robinson – St Kilda
Steven Motlop – Western Bulldogs
Taylor Hunt – Geelong
Ryan Schoenmakers – Hawthorn
Michael Hurley – Melbourne
Luke Shuey – West Coast
Zac Clarke – Melbourne
Jackson Trengove – West Coast
Phil Davis – Fremantle
Chris Yarran – Port Adelaide
Nick Suban – Essendon
Hamish Hartlett– Fremantle
Ty Vickery – Brisbane
Matthew Broadbent – Richmond
Jordan Roughead – North Melbourne

 

[Big Fresh]

Jack Ziebell – Melbourne
Dan Hannerbury – West Coast
Dayne Beams – Fremantle
Rory Sloane – Port Adelaide
Hayden Ballantyne – Essendon
David Zaharakis – Carlton
Liam Shiels – Brisbane
Daniel Rich – Richmond
Steele Sidebottom – North Melbourne
Nic Naitanui – Adelaide
Stephen Hill – Collingwood
Mitch Robinson – St Kilda
Steven Motlop – Western Bulldogs
Taylor Hunt – Geelong
Ryan Schoenmakers – Hawthorn
Michael Hurley – Melbourne
Luke Shuey – West Coast
Zac Clarke – Melbourne
Jackson Trengove – West Coast
Phil Davis – Fremantle
Chris Yarran – Port Adelaide
Nick Suban – Essendon
Hamish Hartlett– Fremantle
Ty Vickery – Brisbane
Matthew Broadbent – Richmond
Jordan Roughead – North Melbourne

I don't know where to begin with this...

 

[The Bomb]

I don't know where to begin with this...

Imagine getting Naitanui at 10 or Hartlett at 23, that alone could change a team for a decade.
Zaharakis is not ahead of either of these 2 guys.