2009 Trade Discussion- Part 7

[NANX]

I decided against trading this week. With Bowden and Chad out that leaves me over 700k on my bench in the backs

 

[outofthegloom]

Because there averaging about the same now, but Deledio is not playing his best whereas i think Gia is. Worst case they average the same. But if Lids hits some form he will average more imo.

Excellent post, and think that sums up exactly how you should look at 50/50 decisions.

Take Bartel, Pendlebury, Sewell and Hayes for example as Kangaroos3 had in his post.

Out of those, Bartel is the most out of form yet still averaging 115 (realistically, he's not playing his best footy atm). The others are in awesome form, and are all averaging less. Just wait until Bartel finds top form and the others drop off slightly, and there'll be a difference of around 10ppg.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

bit of second thoughts in getting riewoldt. perhaps steve johnson is better pick as he is safer injury player and averaging basically the same. steven johnson might get more attention the 2nd half of the year because he creates so many scores and last week he struggled and so did geelong. roo always gets attention and still produces the scores he has so its really hard to split in my opinion.
who would others get?

Voldt IMO, no solid reason why but just think he will end up averaging more from here on in.

 

[desTROY]

bit of second thoughts in getting riewoldt. perhaps steve johnson is better pick as he is safer injury player and averaging basically the same. steven johnson might get more attention the 2nd half of the year because he creates so many scores and last week he struggled and so did geelong. roo always gets attention and still produces the scores he has so its really hard to split in my opinion.
who would others get?

I think Riewoldt is the better choice. Always ends seasons well and is very consistent.

 

[bones25]

fffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

cant decide

coughlan ---> Bartel

or

rich ---> Bartel

Coughlan, least Rich is still playing.

 

[drd23]

Chornes > Lockyer/Enright/Scotland/Mackie/Duffield/Ellis

It seems everyone is going with Mundy, but ive had him from the start.

Im not sure about Ellis' scoring potential at the moment or Enright's without Harley and Taylor in the team as it changes his role.

Lockyer and Duffield are reasonably priced for their scoring ave, but I would be picking them up at their peak, wth not much increase left in them.

Which one should I go with?

 

[Natanui]

Hey guys, just a quickie, what do people rekon between:

Didak vs S Johnson (75k more expensive)

Is it worth taking didak over stevie J?
Can straigh swap for either, but still got 2 more upgrades to after, so which one?

Also, who do you think will play more games for the rest of the season?

Sidebottom, in a strong-ish team, with a fair few injured players returning, or Mitch Brown, who seems pretty settled in the WC backline BUT has been named on the bench?

One has to go!

And before you alert me to the fact that Sidebottom is still on the price rise, it seems, after comparing numbers on the Calc, that Sidebottom AND Didak will rise pretty evgenly = May as well get Didak in to score larger.

Any ideas would be great!

 

[desTROY]

Brown has much better job security and I think Didak would be the better choice.

 

[happy_eagle]

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=12&ContentID=146579

Young West Coast key position player Mitch Brown will revert to being a forward after successfully switching to his preferred end of the field against Geelong yesterday.

Brown spent the first 10 games playing in the back line as he found his feet after missing last year because of a knee reconstruction.

He responded to the switch to the forward line with two goals.

Brown said the decision to play him in defence had been based on gaining confidence, but it was never going to be a permanent move. “I was always a forward,” he said.

“Going down back at the start of the year was just to get me going after my knee reconstruction.

“We always had the plan to go forward again. Playing down back for the first couple of games just added another string to my bow. I can swing each way now.”

Brown’s two goals came during a vital passage as West Coast fought back during the second term. A set shot from 30m reduced the deficit to 17 points and then he ran to 25m out after marking to make it 11.

Earlier in the term he had been responsible for getting the ball inside 50 to allow Josh Kennedy to kick a goal. “It was good to have a free run without having to worry about a man,” Brown said.
“It’s good up forward. I love being exciting and thrilling the team and being inspiring.
“All our talls have good running ability and we’re no too bad at ground level.
“Today I had a focus of using my run, getting up the ground, coming back and using my physical side to block for Mark LeCras.”

Brown’s return to the forward line resulted in Adam Hunter becoming a defender again. But both players have the flexibility to switch back.

Brown said losing to Geelong was never going to be considered acceptable, but the players were happy with how they performed.

“We were pleased with the effort we gave after the first 10 minutes,” he said.

“Our defensive press had them rattled at times. I thought they were arguing among each other and we were up and going. We’ve just got to be consistent.”

 

[Natanui]

Brown has much better job security and I think Didak would be the better choice.

Only problem I can see with Didak is 1) he is a bit unproven as to what his real average will be this year, and

2) I already have a "no frills" type forward line; no absolute guns (on current form) this year, but bringing Didak in will see me have:

Buddy, Roughead, Higgins, Deledio, Pavlich, Gia, and now Didak.

... Do you think I need a big average earner like S Johnson, or should I bring in Didak, allowing me to straigh upgrade Rich to Swan (if Rich can pull out another 20-30k)??

 

[Decipher]

I would go Deledio hes cheap and I see some good improvement.

My Question

T. Tuck to Bartel
or
Rich to Bartel

Rich has had lighter training sessions and some good scores.
Howerver Tuck has some good potential... peoples thoughts?

 

[Hot Tiges]

Hey guys got 8 trades and 152.7 left

Midfield is

Corey,Cross,Gibbs,Cornes,J McViegh, Rich(Muston,Beams)

Looking at slotting in Dal Santo or Bartel in, however I would like to upgade Ziebell in the forward line too..

Forwards is

S Johnson,Davis,O Keefe,Pavlich,Bradshaw,Porpylzia,Ziebell(M Brown,Ballantyne)

If I go rich > Bartel I'll have about 7k to spend on Ziebs lol. I was looking at Rich > Dal Santo and Ziebs > Dids although I had Dids till he got injured
Possibly Franklin as well?? Although not on fire there is cash to spare..

 

[nowhereneargeelong]

OK, For those out west:

Who has the best job security??

SWIFT OR WALTERS??

Gotta get one tonight.

 

[senrulzisback]

Swift. Walters should get replaced by Ballantyne.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

OK, For those out west:

Who has the best job security??

SWIFT OR WALTERS??

Gotta get one tonight.

I's have to say Swift given he got his spot in the Eagles without injuries,, whereas Walters only got his spot due to a raft of injuries.

However - walters looked so clean last weekend - will be disappointed from a pure footy sense if he gets dropped
Swift won't play every game - he is a young kid in his first full season of footy - so he'll be rested every now and then

 

[lmaohelp]

shuld i upgrade hill or krak?

broughten covers hill

sidebottom covers krak

 

[stuart27]

My Question

T. Tuck to Bartel
or
Rich to Bartel

Rich has had lighter training sessions and some good scores.
Howerver Tuck has some good potential... peoples thoughts?

Get Tuck the *uck out.

 

[stuart27]

If I go rich > Bartel I'll have about 7k to spend on Ziebs lol. I was looking at Rich > Dal Santo and Ziebs > Dids although I had Dids till he got injured
Possibly Franklin as well?? Although not on fire there is cash to spare..

This just about answers your question.

NDS will probably be better for your team's scenario.

 

[stuart27]

shuld i upgrade hill or krak?

broughten covers hill

sidebottom covers krak

Krakouer.

 

[lmaohelp]

Krakouer.

really whys that?

krak has better upside than hill, hill is a 1st year player tho

 

[tonemeister]

Houlihan dropped $20,000 tonight, thats going to hurt alot of people who haven't upgraded him yet.

 

[anf06]

Houlihan dropped $20,000 tonight, thats going to hurt alot of people who haven't upgraded him yet.

It does hurt a little bit.
Was thinking to do him to Mundy this week and then Suban to Hodge next.

But i still have to upgrade one of Skipworth or Ziebell or Warren as my last three forwards.

Did Hase to Bartell this week.

But i think that with the way injurys are going this year, and with only 9 trades left I could do worse than Houlihan as my 7th Back. (Still have Chad on the bench)

Houlihan's job security is very good now in his new role. And he is doing it very well.

There will be the odd game he will be allowed to play his old game and get his 90-100's.

For now though, there are far more pressing issues than losing 20k.

 

[samwise]

riewoldt you gun trade in!

 

[Kid A]

Something to keep in mind on the value of a trade.

Let's say I want to trade Ziebell @ 270k to Bartel @ 440k. Let's imagine that Ziebell has a BE of 40 this week and a predicted average of 70 and Bartel has a BE of 130 and predicted average 115. (Those BEs are wrong.)

A handy rule of thumb is that a player's rise or fall in value is their (score- BE)/3 (ie if a player's BE is 100, the player scores 130, he will rise by 10k). Thus Ziebell would be expected to rise by 10k and Bartel will fall by 5k. By waiting a week, you will save yourself 15k.

Is that worth it? That 15k equals 4 points per week. You will be left with 10 rounds to use those 4 points per week by upgrading to someone better. You may have to wait 2 weeks till your next upgrade, meaning you will most likely have about 8 rounds to use the extra 15k, which translates to just 32 points overall gained. By trading Ziebell to Bartel this week you would make an estimated 45 points.

So it's a two step process. First, calculate how much money you expect save by holding off on a trade. Then, calculate how useful that money is to you over the rest of the season. As the season draws closer to its finish, money will be increasingly less useful. Me saving 40k in round 18 is not going to be very helpful because that extra money can only be applied for 4 more rounds.

A further important factor is whether X money saved will make the difference between your next upgrade being to the player you want and a lesser player. But if you don't have any particular targets, by now it's probably better to pull the trigger than wait on a trade if the point of waiting is just to save 10 or 20k.

 

[Kenzie101]

I only did the one trade this week Rich > Bartel i was goin to go rich > dal/hayes but decided that i wanted a risk free pick that is proven eg. not tagged out of games(Dal) or injury prone (hayes)..... but if i hadnt gone Bartel i would have gone Hayes he is a gun and is on a huge run of 100's and he is cheaper, i dont know why so many people went to Nick Dal instead.