2009 Trade Discussion- Part 7

[Jimhouse]

Isn't Hayes more expensive than Bartel?

 

[Atavistic]

I went with Ziebell to Brennan and Cornes to Newman.

I had been considering combos of Didak and Ellis or Fisher and Kosi.
It will truly suck if Ziebell cracks the ton this round.

 

[Hodges]

I went with Rich -> NDS, has payed off handsomely so far.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Finally decided on just the one trade, Rich>Kornes. Held onto Houlihan which already looks to be paying dividends...

 

[C-Dog]

Two for me this week:

Walker > Didak
Cornes>Enright

9 trades left 2 upgrades.

 

[banana_bus]

I went with Rich -> NDS, has payed off handsomely so far.

Dude... surely Rich was the least of your worries??

I know Im keeping him for a little while yet.

 

[Buddyman]

Why has Geary demised so quickly? I planned on keeping him but with those scores its not looking to good for that status!
Daisy 2 Riewoldt !!!
warren 2 Ballantyne
I needed the extra dough and Ballantyne looks some chance of playing this week!

 

[GoodGoal]

I have about 30 k in the bank, meaning I could trade Petrenko to Pearce and upgrade Cogs to Gibbs next week.

Is Gibbs worth upgrading too? Do people predict him to avg 95+ for the season remainder?

Will have another look at Pearce this round but it may well sure up a defensive bench player as well if he can string some of the season together.

*Assuming Cogs isn't named next week if he plays well in the VFL

 

[scooterselwood]

I went from

Kreuzer -> Naitanui (on bench, got cox and sandi, already had vickery from start of year)
Robinson -> Kornes

What do people think??

 

[Saint KFC]

I went from

Kreuzer -> Naitanui (on bench, got cox and sandi, already had vickery from start of year)
Robinson -> Kornes

What do people think??

I think you're crazy for having a ruck setup of Cox, Sandi, Kreuzer, Vickery

 

[tonemeister]

Something to keep in mind on the value of a trade.

Let's say I want to trade Ziebell @ 270k to Bartel @ 440k. Let's imagine that Ziebell has a BE of 40 this week and a predicted average of 70 and Bartel has a BE of 130 and predicted average 115. (Those BEs are wrong.)

A handy rule of thumb is that a player's rise or fall in value is their (score- BE)/3 (ie if a player's BE is 100, the player scores 130, he will rise by 10k). Thus Ziebell would be expected to rise by 10k and Bartel will fall by 5k. By waiting a week, you will save yourself 15k.

Is that worth it? That 15k equals 4 points per week. You will be left with 10 rounds to use those 4 points per week by upgrading to someone better. You may have to wait 2 weeks till your next upgrade, meaning you will most likely have about 8 rounds to use the extra 15k, which translates to just 32 points overall gained. By trading Ziebell to Bartel this week you would make an estimated 45 points.

So it's a two step process. First, calculate how much money you expect save by holding off on a trade. Then, calculate how useful that money is to you over the rest of the season. As the season draws closer to its finish, money will be increasingly less useful. Me saving 40k in round 18 is not going to be very helpful because that extra money can only be applied for 4 more rounds.

A further important factor is whether X money saved will make the difference between your next upgrade being to the player you want and a lesser player. But if you don't have any particular targets, by now it's probably better to pull the trigger than wait on a trade if the point of waiting is just to save 10 or 20k.

Great post Kid, i tossed that up this week before making Rich > Bartell. Hopefully it's my last upgrade so i felt the cash didn't really matter in the end.

Final mids:-

Ablett
Bartell
Selwood
Kornes
Mitchell
Gibbs

 

[lifelike_]

I went with Rich -> NDS, has payed off handsomely so far.

Sub Otten for Rich and I did the same thing. Couldn't afford them to drift another 20k apart after this round.

Now have a little under 39k in the bank, and if Dempsey scores within 38 points of Hodge I'll be able to do a direct swap next round. If Hodge doesn't play then he'll need to score a 70.

Will then hopefully sit on things for a while and my last upgrade for the final few rounds will be Muston -> 86k, Rich -> Ablett.

 

[Big_Tazz]

I downgraded Nathan G to Ballantyne and put M.Brown on the field, bit silly i know but i needed Gazz back.... so i upgraded Hartlett on the bench and put Muston on the bench for cover.... my mids now look like this:
Ablett
Bartel
Gibbs
M.Murphy
Kornes
Rich

I still have about 120k left and with Rich playing Hawthorn and Melbourne in the next 2 weeks, his sure to rise by about atleast another 30k more, which can be my final upgrade to a gun and i will have 4 trades remaining...

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I went with Rich -> NDS, has payed off handsomely so far.

+1

 

[Hodges]

Dude... surely Rich was the least of your worries??

I know Im keeping him for a little while yet.

Not in the slightest. The only player I have to upgrade is Muston/Sidey, but cant do that for a while.

If I was still in contention for overall, I probably would have held off for a while, but im not - so just having a bit of fun with it for the rest of the year. Will undoubtedly run out of trades when the injuries come again, but im really not that fussed.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

For those that have him - Walters not playing the WAFL this week - bodes well for him getting a game next week for the Dockers

 

[scooterselwood]

I think you're crazy for having a ruck setup of Cox, Sandi, Kreuzer, Vickery

why??

cox is 1st out of ruckman and mcintosh is only getting one point more a game than sandilands this year as the next two best ruckman.

kreuzer was a solid back-up as he was still relatively cheap and was guaranteed of a game every week.

and I thought Vickery was more chance of a game than naitanui at the start of the year (which isn't wrong).

What was your ruck lineup (have you traded anyone from your ruck so far this year? Why is mine crazy??

 

[happy_eagle]

Most people on bigfooty went for

Cox
Mcintosh

Jacobs
Spencer

 

[Saint KFC]

why??

cox is 1st out of ruckman and mcintosh is only getting one point more a game than sandilands this year as the next two best ruckman.

kreuzer was a solid back-up as he was still relatively cheap and was guaranteed of a game every week.

and I thought Vickery was more chance of a game than naitanui at the start of the year (which isn't wrong).

What was your ruck lineup (have you traded anyone from your ruck so far this year? Why is mine crazy??

Nothing wrong with your starting two ruckman, but your bench cover in Kreuzer and Vickery is a bit excessive. Kreuzer because of his starting price of 241,200 and Vickery for his starting price of 122,600 and the fact that he is only debuting now in Round 12, when there were 75k options in Browne/Jacobs/Spencer getting games in Round 1.

Just a structure issue, that's all. I would never even contemplate having that much cash tied up in the ruck reserves, and not in a million years would I choose a 240k player as cover for the year in any position.

My rucks at the start of the year read as Cox, Simmonds (Jacobs, Browne). Two starting rucks were meant to be lock-and-leave and Jacobs and Browne were two 75k rookies playing in Round 1, and the logic was that if Simmonds went down than Browne was a likely candidate to get a game (near lockout it seemed that he was second-choice instead of Graham). Granted, I could have chosen McIntosh/Sandilands over Simmonds (who has been traded to Petrie), but that's less of a structural error and more of an error in judgement.

 

[weagles_fan]

why??

cox is 1st out of ruckman and mcintosh is only getting one point more a game than sandilands this year as the next two best ruckman.

kreuzer was a solid back-up as he was still relatively cheap and was guaranteed of a game every week.

and I thought Vickery was more chance of a game than naitanui at the start of the year (which isn't wrong).

What was your ruck lineup (have you traded anyone from your ruck so far this year? Why is mine crazy??

If Cox/McIntosh missed 1-2 weeks you would've been a good position however they havn't so spending that much on reserves that have not gone up in value enough to be classified a cash now is not good. If you had've picked 2 75k or 86k rucks as backups you could've spent more in other positions.

 

[senrulzisback]

Most people on bigfooty went for

Cox
Mcintosh

Jacobs
Spencer

Mine's better:

Cox
McIntosh

Spencer
Graham (Traded to Pyke, netted about 150k)

 

[outofthegloom]

I think I'm going back to the drawing board, and would lovea couple of opinions on my options...

1)
Out: JZ, Robinson
In: Riewoldt, Stanton

2)
Out: JZ, Robinson
In: Bartel, Jono Brown

3)
Out: Warren, Robinson (Ziebell on forward bench with Hentschel)
In: Didak, Thompson

What do people think?

Was almost going to go with the option of having Ziebell on the bench, but thought better of it.

Brought in Brown and Bartel so happy with that. Without the trades, I would've started Muston (52) and Ziebell (23) so Brown's 99 is already very handy.

Not happy about JZ's injury though

 

[just signed]

Two quick questions. Been hanging out with some excitement watching Hodge and Franklin's price drop as there form struggled, waiting for th right time to pick them. Now worried about them.
Not sure who is the better value out of Hodge or Ellis.
Really concerned that Buddy won't turn it around and I should look elsewhere. Thoughts?

 

[foley4brownlow]

Was almost going to go with the option of having Ziebell on the bench, but thought better of it.

Brought in Brown and Bartel so happy with that. Without the trades, I would've started Muston (52) and Ziebell (23) so Brown's 99 is already very handy.

Not happy about JZ's injury though

looked really good today when they managed to kick it near him. starting to hit some form and il most likely be bringing him in this week as he will be at 345k and i dont see him going below 350k again this season. it will finish off my forward line as well. might even give him the captaincy straight up against melbourne at the gabba. should average 90-95 for the rest of the season.i dont like him playing sydney at the scg in round 22 though which could potentially be my league grand final but oh well.

 

[Clutch_N_Bolt]

Houlihan dropped $20,000 tonight, thats going to hurt alot of people who haven't upgraded him yet.

doesnt bother me anymore.. money with me is much less of a concern now.. got enough cash cows... 20,000 or so thousand at this stage of the game is play money.. only going to take a few $$ to go to hodge/ellis/mundy... hodge also dropped similar $$... im more concerned with his output if i need to keep him for a extra week.. I will prolly play petrenko or brougton. as cover and bench hoops.. upgrade him the following week, whilst im going rich to bartel the week before..